The Impact of Legalized The Impact of Legalized Abortion on CrimeAbortion on Crime

By By

john J. Donohue & Steven D. john J. Donohue & Steven D. LevittLevitt

Presented by Ming LiuPresented by Ming Liu

IntroductionIntroduction

Drop in crime rate in 1990’sDrop in crime rate in 1990’s

Explanations for the drop in crimeExplanations for the drop in crime

The relationship of legalization of abortion The relationship of legalization of abortion and the drop in Crimeand the drop in Crime

Structure of the PaperStructure of the Paper

Brief history of abortionBrief history of abortion

The relationship of legalization of abortion The relationship of legalization of abortion and the drop in crimeand the drop in crime

Empirical evidenceEmpirical evidence

Brief Overview of the History of Brief Overview of the History of Legalized AbortionLegalized Abortion

The 1st law restricting abortions, 1828The 1st law restricting abortions, 1828 Abortion became illegal throughout the country, Abortion became illegal throughout the country,

19001900 The 1st modest effort at abortion liberation, The 1st modest effort at abortion liberation,

1967-19701967-1970 Legal abortion in five states, 1970Legal abortion in five states, 1970 Legal abortion extended to the entire US, 1973Legal abortion extended to the entire US, 1973

– Roe v. WadeRoe v. Wade

Figure 1:Total Abortions by Year

The Mechanism By Which Abortion The Mechanism By Which Abortion Legalization Lowers Crime RatesLegalization Lowers Crime Rates

Through smaller cohort sizeThrough smaller cohort size

Abortion has negative effect on the births of those Abortion has negative effect on the births of those who are most at risk of engaging in criminal who are most at risk of engaging in criminal behaviorbehavior

– Unwanted births and bad maternal backgroundUnwanted births and bad maternal background

– Optimize the timing of childbearing Optimize the timing of childbearing

Empirical Evidence on Legalized Empirical Evidence on Legalized Abortion Affecting Crime RatesAbortion Affecting Crime Rates

Figure 2: Crime Rates from the Uniform Crime Reports, 1973-1999

Figure 3: National Crime Victimization Survey, 1973-1998

Effective_Abortiont=Abortiont-a*(Arresta/Arresttotal)

Effective Legalized Abortion Rate

Figure 4a: Changes in Violent Crime and Abortion rates,1985-1997

Figure 4b: Changes in Property Crime and Abortion rates,1985-1997

Figure 4c: Changes in Murder and Abortion rates,1985-1997

Exclude outlier states

The Impact of Abortion on Arrests The Impact of Abortion on Arrests by Age of Offenderby Age of Offender

TABLE VI

The Impact of Abortion Rates on Arrests by Age

(All Values in the Table are Coefficients on the Effective Abortion Rate (x100), Other Coefficients are Not Reported)

ConclusionConclusion

Legalized abortion reducing the crime rateLegalized abortion reducing the crime rate

Crime rates will continue to fall because of Crime rates will continue to fall because of the legalized abortionthe legalized abortion

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