The impact of international migration on fertility in England and Wales
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Transcript of The impact of international migration on fertility in England and Wales
The impact of international migration on fertility in England and Wales
Julie Jefferies and Eva NatambaFertility Analysis Unit
ONS Centre for DemographyOffice for National Statistics
Recent headlines:
1 in 4 children born to a foreign parent as immigration grows
Source: The Times
Thursday 23, August 2007
25% OF UK BIRTHS ARE TO FOREIGNERS …and more Brits
than ever are emigratingSource: The Sun
Thursday 23 August 2007
Introduction
1. Recent trends in UK fertility
2. Trends in births to mothers and fathers born outside the UK
3. How does international migration affect fertility?
4. Impact of international migration on population at risk of a birth
5. Impact of international migration on fertility rates
Total Period Fertility Rate, UK, 1971-2006
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Year
Chi
ldre
n pe
r w
oman
TFR, UK countries, 1971-2006
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Year
TFR
England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland
Age-specific fertility rates, UK
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Liv
e b
irth
s p
er 1
000
wom
en i
n a
ge g
rou
p
30-34
40+
35-39
Age-specific fertility rates, UK
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Liv
e b
irth
s p
er 1
000
wom
en i
n a
ge g
rou
p
25-29
20-24
30-34
40+
35-39
<20
International migration: females of childbearing age
Total international migration, women aged 15-44, UK, 1995-2005
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Th
ou
san
ds
Inflow
Outflow
Country of birth of mothers and fathers, E&W, 1975 - 2006
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2006
Perc
enta
ge
Mother and father non-UK born Mother non-UK born, father born in the UK
Mother non-UK born, father not known Mother born in the UK, father non-UK born
Mother born in the UK, father not known Mother and father born in the UK
Mother's country of birth is not stated
Mother’s country of birth 2001 / 2006
% births to non-UK born mothers
Top 10 non-UK countries Number Numberof mother's birth Pakistan 14,588 Pakistan 17,150
Bangladesh 8,164 India 11,114India 6,598 Bangladesh 8,797Germany 4,047 Poland 6,620Irish Republic 3,662 Nigeria 5,854Somalia 3,189 Somalia 5,639USA 2,848 Germany 4,749Nigeria 2,611 South Africa 4,253South Africa 2,176 Ghana 3,513Jamaica 2,035 Irish Republic 3,462
2001 200616.5% 21.9%
Mother’s country of birth 2001 / 2006
% births to non-UK born mothers
Live births to non-UK born mothers
% births to mothers born in A8 countries
Live births to mothers born in A8 countries
% births to mothers born in Pakistan/India/Bangladesh
Live births to mothers born in Pakistan/India/Bangladesh
2001 200616.5% 21.9%
97,895 146,944
29,350
10,841
37,061
0.3% 1.6%
4.9% 5.5%
1,950
How might international migration have an impact on fertility?
1. Effect of net in-migration on population at risk:• size of female population of childbearing age• age composition of female population
2. Effect of net in-migration on fertility rates:
a. differences in actual/intended family size between – in-migrants, out-migrants and UK population– in-migrant sub-groups
b. does timing of childbearing in relation to migration have an impact on period fertility?
Decomposition of number of births in E&W
Actual births 2004 – 639,7212005 – 645,835
Components of this increase:• Rising fertility rates +6K• Increased female population size +6K • Ageing of female population -6K
What effect did migration have on population at risk?
Effect of international migration on number of births in E&W
• Net international migration between mid-2004 and mid-2005 increased the number of births in 2005 by 8.7 thousand.
In-migration increased the number of births by
16.2 thousandOut-migration decreased
the number of births by 7.5 thousand
• Ageing-on of the population and other changes (mainly mortality) between mid-2004 and mid-2005 decreased the number of births in 2005 by 8.7 thousand.
Differences in TFRs by country of birth
Using LFS populations by country of birth and birth registration data for E&W, 2006
Pakistan/Bangladesh 5.38Africa 2.91Caribbean 2.85Other Asia 2.85Middle East 2.63A8 2.52India 2.50Other Americas 2.47Rep. Ireland 1.98Rest of Europe 1.91USA 1.85China & Hong Kong 1.84Other EU15, Malta & Cyprus 1.72UK 1.71Old Commonwealth 1.57
Estimated TFRs by country of birth of mother, E&W 2006
Change in TFR for UK/non-UK born women
Using LFS populations by country of birth and birth registration data for E&W, 2002/6
2002 2006UK-born 1.5 1.7
Born outside UK 2.3 2.5
All 1.6 1.8
Estimated TFRs by country of birth of mother, E&W
Change in ASFRs, 2002-06, for UK-born and non UK-born women in E&W, LFS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
15 - 19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40+
Age group
Ag
e-sp
ecif
ic f
erti
lity
rate
UK-born
Born outside UK2006
2002
2006
2002
Intended family size, women aged 30-34 UK and non-UK born
(GHS data 2000-05)
UK-bornBorn outsideUK
Number aged 30-34 4235 636
0 children 14.1% 11.3%1 child 15.4% 11.9%2 children 39.1% 36.6%3 children 20.4% 22.2%4 children 5.2% 7.7%5 children 4.0% 5.7%6+ children 1.8% 4.5%
Expected fertility
Actual family size, women aged 30-34 UK and non-UK born
(GHS data 2000-05)
UK-bornBorn outside UK
Number aged 30-34 4235 636
0 children 38.5% 48.3%1 child 22.8% 20.2%2 children 25.9% 17.7%3 children 8.9% 8.0%4 children 2.9% 3.5%5 children 0.9% 1.5%6+ children 0.2% 0.8%
Actual fertility
% childless by age, UK and non-UK born women
16 - 19 93.9% 99.2%20 - 24 75.1% 80.5%25 - 29 57.7% 65.1%30 - 34 38.5% 48.3%35 - 39 24.5% 30.9%40 - 44 22.6% 23.4%45 - 49 20.4% 24.0%
Age UK born Non-UK born
(GHS data 2000-05)
Intended family size, women born in selected countries, all ages
(GHS data 2000-05)
0 children 16.5% 20.5% 10.7% 11.2%1 child 13.2% 11.8% 2.7% 12.6%2 children 40.6% 37.9% 18.6% 39.8%3 children 19.8% 20.2% 16.3% 22.0%4 children 6.1% 6.0% 19.8% 8.6%5 children 2.6% 1.9% 14.3% 5.3%6+ children 1.3% 1.7% 17.6% 0.6%
n 84,375,997 2,190,151 549,983 847,354
India bornExpected family size
UK born EU born Pakistan born
Key points
• Proportion of E&W births with a mother/father born outside the UK is increasing.
• Net international migration is increasing the total number of births via its effect on the female population at risk and via the differential fertility rates of migrants and non-migrants.
• Some (but not all) in-migrant groups have higher fertility rates and intended completed family sizes than UK-born women.
• Non-UK born women are contributing around 0.1 to the E&W TFR.
• Fertility rates have risen for UK born women since 2002 as well as for non-UK born women.
Further questions
• What might be causing increased fertility among UK-born women? Are UK women realising they can’t leave it too late?
• To what extent are the findings for UK-born women influenced by second-generation in-migrants?
• Are the fertility rates of in-migrant populations likely to converge to rates for UK-born women in future?
• How is the timing of fertility in relation to migration affecting period fertility?