The ICP 2011 Round Presented by: Michel Mouyelo-Katoula Global Manager International Comparison...
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Transcript of The ICP 2011 Round Presented by: Michel Mouyelo-Katoula Global Manager International Comparison...
The ICP 2011 RoundPresented by:
Michel Mouyelo-KatoulaGlobal Manager
International Comparison ProgramWorld Bank
Outline
2
I Introduction & objectives for the 2011 round
II Lessons learned from the 2005 round: Innovations and Improvements
III Institutional arrangements
IV Countries’ activities
V PPP aggregation & linking
VI ICP data uses
VII ICP 2011: methodological development & timeframe
VIII The way forward
Part I
Introduction & objectivesfor the 2011 round
3
Part II
Lessons learned from the 2005 round: Innovations and Improvements
5
6
Role of the ICP Executive Board Role of the Technical Advisory
Group Role of the regional coordinators Regional workshops with
countries, global workshops with regions
Partnering arrangements between national statistical offices and regions/global office
Australia, Canada, France, Russia, the UK
…
What worked in ICP 2005
Defining respective roles in governance UNSC, Global Office, Executive Board and TAG
Respective roles of the UNSC, Global Office, Executive Board, and Technical Advisory Group
Agreements with regions/countries more explicitly define requirements for submitting regional and ring data
More explicitly define policies on data access and sharing
Define process to determine methodology for regional results and linking
Strengthen ties between ICP and Eurostat-OECD Separate agreement Mutual representation in regional workshops
Encourage more partnering arrangements Determine protocol with countries when data
collected by regional or global consultants Limit on what countries can do at a time …
Where improvements can be made
7
Lesson learnt from 2005
Quality of 2005 Method
Effective
Not effective
To be improved
Review Survey Tools
Improve Method
Research
Apply 2005
Method
Deploy
DevelopSurvey Tools
8
Innovations1. Outreach focus2. An ICP quality assurance framework3. Statistical capacity building4. An ICP Book titled “Measuring the Size of the
World Economy”5. A National Accounts framework for ICP6. A system of economic validation of price and
expenditure data7. Linking Regions through Global Core List Approach
9
Methodological Improvements A 600-item Global Core List for household consumption,
equi-representative of all the regions Global core list for household consumption included in
regional lists All countries in the world price the global core list items Equipment list equally representative across the regions
and OECD-Eurostat countries
Most Robust Linking Method
Improved Quality of National
Accounts & Prices
New National Accounts framework Improved GDP expenditures Field prices expected to be more consistent with
national-accounts-embedded prices A comprehensive quality assurance framework being
finalized
Improvements in other areas
Improved methods for health and education A new method being designed for construction A 10-topic research agenda being pursued
Part III
Institutional arrangements
10
OECD-EUROSTAT
ICPGovernance
Structure
UNSC
Executive Board
Global Office:Global Manager
+ Staff
World Bank
TAG
AfDB ADB CIS ECLAC ESCWAOECD E/STAT
Countries
Regional Advisory Boards
11
12
AfDB ADB CIS ECLAC ESCWA
ICP Global Office at World Bank
PR
ICE
S &
GD
P E
XP.
OECD -EUROSTATPPPS + CORE PRICES
Country Participation and Flow of Data
Global PPPS
CO
RE
PR
ICE
S +
RE
GIO
NA
L P
PP
s
52 Countries 28 Countries 9 Countries ? 14 Countries
PR
ICE
S &
GD
P E
XP.
PR
ICE
S &
GD
P E
XP.
PR
ICE
S &
GD
P E
XP.
PR
ICE
S &
GD
P E
XP.
PR
ICE
S &
GD
P E
XP.
48 Countries 33 Countries
OECDEUROSTAT
More than 180 Countries
Part IV
Countries’ activities
13
14
National Accounts Framework for the ICP
The Framework
Derived from SNA-1993
Set of tables and forms
Piloted in 5 countries
Step-by-step guidelines
Division of workNational Accountants Price Experts
N.A. Activities
Housing
Public Education
Public Health
Expenditures – Price Consistency
Main price survey
Main List Prep.
Equipment
Private Education
Private Health
Comp. Of Empl.
Construction Exp. Constr. pricing
Other pricing
Input Vs Output Methods
15
400-800 Household
Items
5-10 Housing Services
100 Health
goods & Services
100 Equipmen
t
5-20 Education Services20
Government
Occupations
20 Constructio
n Items
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q4
Q4
Q3
Q4
Intra Country Validati
on
Annual National Average Prices
Price Surveys in 2011
16
100 Household Cons. Basic
Headings [BH]
Housing BHs
Health BHs
Equipment BHs
Education BHs
Government BHs
Construction BHs
Country Activities: Estimation of GDP Expenditures
NPISH BHs
Other GDP components
BHs
Review GDP
Classification
Identify Data
Sources
Implement Commodity Flows where
possible
Estimate GDP & Main
Aggregates
Carry out N.A. work
for comparison
resistant areas
Develop vector of 2011 GDP
expenditures
17
Part V
PPP aggregation & linking
18
Household
Housing
Health
Equipment
Education
Government
Construction
Regional Level: PPP Computation
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Annual National Average Prices
Regional Basic Heading PPPs
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Regional Aggregated
PPPs
All countries in a region
All countries in a region
All countries in a region
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Household
Construction
Global Core List Approach
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Annual National Average Prices for Global Core Items
Global Basic Heading PPPs
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Calibration Factors
All countries in the world
All countries in the world
All countries in the world
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.Regional Basic Heading PPPs
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Global PPPs
All countries in the world
20
Part VI
ICP data uses
21
Major Uses of PPP
22
Major uses of the PPP results at international and regional levels include:• International poverty headcount index (World Bank)• Comparing relative sizes of economies and estimating weighted averages of regional
growth rates (IMF)• Allocation of structural and cohesion funds (European Commission)• Human Development Index (UNDP)• Gender empowerment measures (UNDP)• Health inequality assessment (World Health Organization)• Assessing per capita expenditures in education (U.N. Educational, Scientific & Cultural
Organization)• Monitoring the welfare of children (U.N. Children’s Fund)• Designing effective aid programs (International Organizations)
Other uses include:• Analysis of an economy’s comparative advantage on prices and expenditures of goods
or services (Policy Makers)• Evaluation of investment costs and industry growth potential across countries.• PPP adjusted cost of living allowances (Multinational Corporations, Non-Government
Organizations, International Development Agencies)
Part VII
ICP 2011: methodological development
& timeframe
23
Topic Priority Status1. Owner-occupied housing High Adopted 2. Measurement of government outputs High Adopted 3. Survey frameworks High Adopted 4. Construction PPPs High Approach adopted
Ongoing research5. Education High Ongoing research6. Guidelines for the disaggregation of GDP expenditures into basic headings
High Adopted
7. Health services High Ongoing research8. Global Core List for the main price survey High Adopted9. Machinery and equipment High Approach adopted
Ongoing development10. Financial services Low Adopted 11. Net Exports and net purchases abroad Low Adopted 12. PPP-based poverty analysis Low Ongoing research13. Back-casting and PPP revisions Low Ongoing research14. Linking regional PPPs into global results Medium Ongoing research15. Sub-national PPPs Very low Ongoing research
24
Methodological Development
25
July
Timetable for the Development of Product Lists
Submission of Country’s Input on GCL
15
August Oct.Sept.
Submission of Matrix of Importance of GCL Items
Submission of Consolidated Regional Lists
Submission of Matrix of Importance of Regional Items
15
15
30
2010
26
2010
National Accounts Timetable
Major aggregates for latest year possible
J
2011 20132012
N
BH details for final cons. aggregates for latest year possible
Values for all BHs N
J
J N
Preliminary data for 2010
J
Major aggregates for 2011
BH values for 2011
J O M
J
J O M
M= May; J= July; O= October; N=November
27
2010 2011 2012 2013
Overall Timetable
1. Meetings
2014
2. Quality Assess.
3. Methodologies
4. Survey Prep.
5. Survey Implement.
6. Nat. Accounts
7. Regional Results
8. Global Results
Part VIII
The Way Forward
28
29
Meetings Participants
18th Executive Board Meeting All Board Members
19th Morning World Statistics Day Open TAG members are invited to attendEach TAG member asked to propose 5-6 people to be invited
Afternoon ICP Users’ Conference 80-100 EB Members; TAG; RCs; Users; Bank and IMF; Academia; Press
20th 4th TAG Meeting 40 With Regional Coordinators as observers
21st 22nd 3rd Regional Coordinators Meeting
20
October 2010 Meetings in Washington DC
30
A report to the United Nations Statistical Commission [UNSC] on country readiness for field and desk activities. The report will be prepared in November and discussed at the 42nd session of the Statistical Commission in New York in February-March 2011
The main surveys for household consumption items will start in all the regions in the first quarter of 2011
The 4th meeting of the ICP Executive Board will take place in April 2011 to review preliminary regional reports on the launch of the main surveys in the countries and decide any remedial measures where necessary
The Way Forward
31
Thanks