THE HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELL TECHNOLOGIES ......2007/09/11 · 3 The Hydrogen Vision USA 2 prong...
Transcript of THE HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELL TECHNOLOGIES ......2007/09/11 · 3 The Hydrogen Vision USA 2 prong...
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THE HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELL THE HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELL THE HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELL THE HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELL
TECHNOLOGIES STRATEGYTECHNOLOGIES STRATEGYTECHNOLOGIES STRATEGYTECHNOLOGIES STRATEGY
Dr Boni MehlomakuluDr Boni MehlomakuluDr Boni MehlomakuluDr Boni Mehlomakulu
Deputy Director General: RDIDeputy Director General: RDIDeputy Director General: RDIDeputy Director General: RDI
Department of Science & TechnologyDepartment of Science & TechnologyDepartment of Science & TechnologyDepartment of Science & Technology
09/11/2007
Presentation Outline
�Why is South Africa talking Hydrogen?
�Strategy in brief
�Implementation plan
�Competence Centres
�Planned outputs
�Value chain management
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Global Drivers
0
30
60
90
120
1996 2006 2016 2026
Natural Gas Liquids & Non Conventional Oil
World Crude Oil Supplyexcluding OPEC Middle East
Total Oil Demand
mill
ion
barr
els
per
day
OPEC Middle East Crude oil supply
IEA
todaytoday tomorrowtomorrow
Optimization of Combustion EnginesOptimization of Combustion Engines
Hybrid VehiclesHybrid Vehicles
Fuel Cell VehiclesFuel Cell Vehicles
Improvement of Conventional FuelsImprovement of Conventional Fuels
COCO22--neutral Bio Fuelsneutral Bio Fuels
Global Drivers
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The Hydrogen VisionThe Hydrogen VisionThe Hydrogen VisionThe Hydrogen Vision
USAUSAUSAUSA
2 prong strategy$1.7 billion over 5 year
Bridge Technologies ($0.5 billion)
Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cells ($1.2 billion)
Hybrid Cars
H2 Freedom Car
�Security of supply a major driver �Focus is transportation: A Hydrogen fueling station
opened in Nov 2004
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US Timeline US Timeline US Timeline US Timeline
Questions to answer
Pt role in the future H2 Economy
�How much platinum is there?�What are the current markets?�How much platinum will fuel cells need? �Can the mines supply this platinum?
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History of Pt production
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
South Africa Russia Canada Others
Pt tonnes produced per decade since 1735
(1900 figure is cumulative from 1735)
Pt markets since 1970
0
100
200
1970 1980 1990 2000
Industrial Jewellery Autocatalyst
Pt tonnes sold per year
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Additional Pt resources likely
�Old data was based on 1.2km max depth�Northam Platinum already mine at 2+km�Bushveld drilled down to 3.3km�Gold Mines in SA operate at ~4km already �Seismic data suggests reefs at 6km�Some estimates* say 64000 tonnes Pt in SA
TIAX Study D0034 “Pt Availability & Economics for PEMFC Commercialisation” December 2003
Why is South Africa talking H2
World platinum resources: Cawthorn, 1999
Zimbabwe
Finland
Russia
North America
South Africa
� Fuel cells catalytic properties, substitutions investigated, platinum still shows superior properties
� Current investment in various applications R&D � US$1b annually (outside of SA)
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Pt in a car today vs. fuel cell car
Car today : 2 – 5g Pt Fuel cell car : 60g Pt
0
5
10
15
20
Year 0 Year 2 Year 4 Year 6 Year 8 Year 10
portable stationary cars other transport
tonnes
Pt demand for Fuel cell
applications(Data from Johnson (Data from Johnson (Data from Johnson (Data from Johnson MattheyMattheyMattheyMatthey, 1995, 1995, 1995, 1995----2005)2005)2005)2005)
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What is a Fuel Cells?What is a Fuel Cells?What is a Fuel Cells?What is a Fuel Cells?
� A fuel cell is a device that uses hydrogen (or hydrogen-rich fuel) and oxygen to generate electricity by an electrochemical process
� Fuel Cells resemble batteries - electrical output is due to an electrochemical process
� Unlike batteries, fuel cells � operate off a continuous
stream of O2 & H2 fuel � the active elements are not
consumed by the chemical reaction
The Mining and MineralsThe Mining and MineralsThe Mining and MineralsThe Mining and Minerals Sector Sector Sector Sector Downstream Dimension Downstream Dimension Downstream Dimension Downstream Dimension
“We have always been a supplier of minerals to the world, what we are now finding is that the world economy is
changing rapidly and is expecting an economy such as ours to be able to produce higher-value manufactured products.
(Min. Alec Erwin)
• SA holds a significant share of the worlds minerals resources and production
• However, we have not been able to use this endowment to attain a satisfactory economic and social performance
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�Economists believe there is a causal relationship between natural resource endowment and economic development
�The Natural Resource endowment tends to channel economic policies towards capturing the primary products market and less emphasis is put on manufacturing
The Natural Resource Curse
�IT and services are helping India log 6% year-on-year increases in GDP
�China's vast manufacturing base is raising its GDP by around 9% a year
�What technology missions will put us on the map?
�Value addition contains more learning effects that impulses the rest of the economy into a steeper productivity curve
Beneficiation for economic growth Beneficiation for economic growth Beneficiation for economic growth Beneficiation for economic growth
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Our Hydrogen Vision
“ to create knowledge and human resource capacity that will develop high value commercial activities in hydrogen and fuel cell technologies utilising local
resources and existing know-how”
Strategic Goals�Develop PGM-based catalysts in South Africa:
supply 25% of catalysts demand for the global fuel cell industry industry by 2020
�Develop local cost competitive hydrogen infrastructure solutions (based on natural resources)
�Promote beneficiation, develop downstream industries & create sustainable jobs linked to our minerals wealth
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Basic Applied Tech Develop Transfer and Proliferation
DOE/NRF NRF/DST DST/FTI/PBF PBF/DTI
COEs
Competency Centres
Publications/new knowledge Patents/new knowledge products
KnowledgeProduction
Development
Production &Commercialisation
FTI
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New fundamentalknowledge
New AppliedKnowledge
Pro-ServicesProducts
Processes
Products
CoC’s Product Profile
Proximity to Market
DST Objectives re CoC
� Competence centres would be complementary to Centres of Excellence
� Deliberately target industry participation and development
� Competence Centres are far more than networks: they involve contractual relationships between the parties, clear short medium and long-term innovation objectives, the establishment of specialized infrastructure, shared staffing between partners, proactive attention to intellectual property issues
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DST Objectives re CoC
� They may be on University Campuses, but do not operate directly under academic supervision
� Competence Centre programmes will be placed in the envisaged Technological Innovation Agency
� H&FC CoC will have the flexibility of an emerging R&D area
� Adopt best practices of other systems rather than sticking to fixed guidelines
�Centres of Excellence for Innovation�Multidisciplinary Teams �Industry partnerships are key�Long term funding commitment (with
appropriate M&E)�Initially, we need to recruit aggressively from
abroad (NRF, DST Bilaterals etc.)� Focus on expertise development initially (for a
specified product pipeline)
DST Objectives re CoC
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Hub & Spokes Model : Hub & Spokes Model : Hub & Spokes Model : Hub & Spokes Model : CatalysisCatalysisCatalysisCatalysis
Theme 6
Theme 5
Theme 4
Theme 3
Theme 2
Theme 1
(Hub)UCT & Mintek
Future Platinum industry in SA
Bio-
medical
Jet engHigh Temp Appli.
Crude refining
Auto-Catalysts
Chemical
s
Fuel Cells
Pt Future Industry
Common set of skills needed for future Pt industries
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Planned outputs
2007 2012 2017 2022
The Strategic Problem
TEC
H D
ESIG
N IN
NO
VA
TIO
N IN
DEX
MANUFACTURING INNOVATION INDEX
MI1MI1MI1MI1 MI2MI2MI2MI2 MI3MI3MI3MI3 MI4MI4MI4MI4 MI5MI5MI5MI5
TI1
TI1
TI1
TI1
TI2
TI2
TI2
TI2
TI3
TI3
TI3
TI3
TI4
TI4
TI4
TI4
TI5
TI5
TI5
TI5
Manufacturing Capability
Des
ign
Cap
abili
ty
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Defining Strategy
TEC
H D
ESIG
N IN
NO
VA
TIO
N IN
DEX
MANUFACTURING INNOVATION INDEX
MI1MI1MI1MI1 MI2MI2MI2MI2 MI3MI3MI3MI3 MI4MI4MI4MI4 MI5MI5MI5MI5
TI1
TI1
TI1
TI1
TI2
TI2
TI2
TI2
TI3
TI3
TI3
TI3
TI4
TI4
TI4
TI4
TI5
TI5
TI5
TI5
Manufacturing Capability
Des
ign
Cap
abili
ty
Material Inputs
Components
Assembly
Technology Design Scale
Turnkey assembly: Ability to assemble turnkey solution.TI1TI1TI1TI1
Component Integration - IP licensed: Ability to integrate licensed components into a
system. TI2TI2TI2TI2
Global IP leader. Systems level: Capability to develop comprehensive innovations
within a field at a systems level that provides a
sustained global competitive advantage in product
development at systems level
TI5TI5TI5TI5
Customisation of Licensed IP: Capability to customise existing design for national
conditions. TI3TI3TI3TI3
Global IP leader – component level: Capability to develop comprehensive innovations
within a field at a component level that provides
a sustained global competitive advantage in
product development at systems level
TI4TI4TI4TI4
Technology T
ransferN
ational Innovation
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MARKET
SHARE
STAGE
SALES
GROWT
H
PROFITS
KEYKEY
START-UP EARLY EXPANSION MATURITY DECLINE
Small
Small to
Moderat
e
Moderat
eLarge
Moderat
e
Low to
HighHigh High Low Negative
-ve -ve to 0+ve &
small
+ve @
peak
+ve &
falling
SEED
Unknow
n
N/A
-ve
SA
LES
THE CHASMTHE CHASMTHE CHASMTHE CHASM
TECHNOLOGICAL
DISCONTINUITY
(SA RESEARCH
INSTITUTES)
TE
CH
NO
LOG
ICA
L R
IVA
LRY
PR
OC
ES
S
INN
OV
AT
ION
INCREMENTAL& ARCHITECTURAL
INNOVATION(SA PRIVATE SECTOR)
EXPORTSEXPORTSEXPORTSEXPORTS
IMPORTSIMPORTSIMPORTSIMPORTS
OUTR
IGHT LO
SS
OUTR
IGHT LO
SS
OUTR
IGHT LO
SS
OUTR
IGHT LO
SS
The cause The cause The cause The cause –––– the Dutch Diseasethe Dutch Diseasethe Dutch Diseasethe Dutch Disease
•Primary production focusPrimary production focusPrimary production focusPrimary production focus
•Risk capital deficienciesRisk capital deficienciesRisk capital deficienciesRisk capital deficiencies
•Commercialization theory, thought & experienceCommercialization theory, thought & experienceCommercialization theory, thought & experienceCommercialization theory, thought & experience
•Entrepreneurial deficienciesEntrepreneurial deficienciesEntrepreneurial deficienciesEntrepreneurial deficiencies
•Lack of belief, vision & boldnessLack of belief, vision & boldnessLack of belief, vision & boldnessLack of belief, vision & boldness
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MARKET
SHARE
STAGE
SALES
GROWT
H
PROFITS
KEYKEY
START-UP EARLY EXPANSION MATURITY DECLINE
Small
Small to
Moderat
e
Moderat
eLarge
Moderat
e
Low to
HighHigh High Low Negative
-ve -ve to 0+ve &
small
+ve @
peak
+ve &
falling
SEED
Unknow
n
N/A
-ve
MANAGED VALUE CHAINMANAGED VALUE CHAINMANAGED VALUE CHAINMANAGED VALUE CHAIN
INVESTMENTINVESTMENTINVESTMENTINVESTMENT
IN IPIN IPIN IPIN IP
RETURNSRETURNSRETURNSRETURNS
NORMALNORMALNORMALNORMAL
PROFITPROFITPROFITPROFIT
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Selected Countries PhD production rates Profile
23
114
157
10
188
7
53
140
221
43
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
SouthAfrica
China India Japan SouthKorea
Taiwan UK USA Australia Brazil
PhD
's/y
ear/
mill
ion
of p
opul
atio
n
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Benchmarking
Thank You
For more information on the South African Hydrogen Activities