The housing pathways of income support recipients Presentation to 2nd Australasian Housing...

The housing pathways of income support recipients

Presentation to 2nd Australasian Housing Researchers’ Conference:Reshaping Australasian Housing Research

Dr Tim SeeligUniversity of Queensland Social Research Centre

20 June 2007

2

Concepts of housing consumption patterns over time

• Historically, tenures seen as being rungs of a hierarchical housing ladder, and housing career patterns involving progression to home ownership are under challenge.

• Household mobility suggests less uniformity and certainty in the housing system - there is a growing separation or “disconnectedness” between housing careers and other life course events (Winter and Stone 1999)

• “Housing careers and tenure arrangements are becoming more complex at the same time as the life cycle sequence of household structure is less predictable” Maher (1997: 5)

• Concept of ‘housing pathways’ (Clapham 2002) more helpful in describing how people act upon their changing needs and circumstances over time through changes in housing options and tenure transitions (shaped by choices and constraints).

• The housing consumption patterns of income support recipients (ISRs) over time has received little research attention

3

Background to the study

• Study for AHURI based on analysis of Australian Govt ‘Longitudinal Data Set’, one percent Sample (1995-2003)

• Study has examined income support recipients over time in relation to:– tenures and tenure changes– relationships between tenure changes and changes in

income– tenure changes in and other changes in characteristics or

circumstances– How the relationships and arrangements between tenure

and other factors vary by discrete groups of income support recipients.

4

Methods and data

• Nature and design of the data have provided both important opportunities and constraints on analysis and outcomes

• Broader study uses a range of cross-sectional and descriptive longitudinal analysis, and more complex longitudinal methodologies: Event History Analysis, Survival Analysis (Cox’s Proportional Hazard Model), Linear Mixed Model (Random Intercepts, IRSs)

• Housing pathways analysis has been informed by:– Descriptive tenure analyses, which examine case-based point in time,

aggregated time and summary transitions;– Tenure Origin and Destination analyses, which are event-based; and– Longitudinal tenure history analyses, which map the case-continuous

patterns of tenure consumption

5

Operational Tenure Classification Tenure Name New

CodeDescription LDS Categories Classification

process

Home Owner H Outright home owners not renting and not in aged care

HOM, JNT, PAR, LIF, SRH, OTH

(home_own_cd) Where rent type is ‘_’

Home Purchaser

P Purchasers not renting and not in aged care

POH, DEE Where rent type is ‘_’

Aged Care A Aged care or nursing home GFH, GFN, NHH, NHN Overrides rent type

Private Rental R Private renters not in aged care PRI Where not in (A)

Public Rental G Government renters not in aged care

GOV Where not in (A)

Boarding B Boarders and lodgers not in aged care

BOA, LOD Where not in (A)

Rent Free F Rent free not in aged care NRP, FBD, FBL, FLD Where not in (A)

Other O Other rent not in aged care OTH (rent_typ_cd) MOO, SIT, MNT

Where not in (A)

Non homeowner

N Cases identifying as 'non-homeowners', but also not identifying rental type

NHO, SRN, PLT SRN or PLT or NHO in home_own_cd and ‘_’ in rent_typ_cd

Seelig et al (forthcoming)

6

Operational Income Support Classifications

New IS name New codes

Description LDS codes Notes

Aged A Age pension and related income support

AGE, MAA

Disability D Disability pension and related income support

DSP, REH, RHB, DWS, SWS

Unemployment U Newstart, youth allowance and other unemployment related income support

NSA, YAL, YTA YAL and YTA apply where activity type code is not ‘FTS’ or ‘ED’

Single parent P Sole parent and related income support

SPP, PPS, WID, PGA

Student S Austudy, youth allowance (students) and study related income support

AUS, YAL, YTA YAL and YTA coded S where activity type code is ‘FTS’ or ‘ED’

Partner allowance

W Income support for partners of others on income support

WFA, WFD, MPA, PGN, PGY, PTA, PA, PGL

Other O Not captured elsewhere All other IS types

Seelig et al (forthcoming)

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Analysing housing consumption patterns among income support recipients

• The patterns of general housing consumption and transitions by tenure over time (including tenure moves and non-moves) have been tracked, analysed and mapped

• Almost 7,000 separate pathways could be identified; including 32 ‘typical’ housing pathways.

• Among income support recipients (ISRs) studied:– 57% did not change tenure at all while on IS– 22% underwent only one tenure change while on IS– 21% had been in multiple (often quite complex) tenure

transitions

• Longest housing pathways consist of 34 tenure transitions!

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Tenure of ISRs at last observation

Tenure type (code) Last observation

Frequency Percent

Home owners (H) 28,607 32.1

Purchasers (P) 4,176 4.7

Private renters (R) 22,294 25.0

Public renters (G) 5,166 5.8

Aged care (A) 3,244 3.6

Boarders/lodgers (B) 7,565 8.5

Rent free (F) 11,012 12.4

Other rent (O) 1,291 1.5

Non-home owner (N) 5,826 6.5

Total 89,181 100

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breakdown of IS types within discrete tenures

IS type / tenure Unem-ployment %

Age pension % Disability %

Partner %

Sole parent %

Student %

Other %

TOTAL %

Home owner 12.4 56.0 9.7 11.9 3.9 0.4 5.7 100

Purchasers 36.7 4.2 6.0 28.2 16.3 1.8 6.6 100

Private renters 47.8 8.6 8.0 9.7 13.7 7.5 4.7 100

Public renters 16.0 29.4 23.1 7.4 17.3 0.8 6.0 100

Aged care 0.0 96.2 3.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 100

Boarder/lodger 53.3 14.7 12.6 1.3 6.7 7.3 4.4 100

Rent free 48.1 13.9 7.3 3.2 5.2 18.9 3.4 100

Other rent 18.0 60.0 11.2 4.8 1.9 0.5 3.6 100

Non-Home Owner 41.2 8.4 3.7 2.1 1.8 41.1 1.8 100

Total 32.0 29.9 9.2 8.7 7.8 7.8 4.6 100

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Typical housing pathways of recipients (all ISRs)

Tenure pathway Rank Frequency Percent Cumulative %

H 1 25,469 28.6% 28.6%

R 2 9,648 10.8% 39.4%

F 3 4,497 5.0% 44.4%

N 4 4,122 4.6% 49.0%

B 5 3,031 3.4% 52.4%

G 6 2,400 2.7% 55.1%

P 7 1,988 2.2% 57.4%

F-N-F 8 1,366 1.5% 58.9%

F-R 9 1,078 1.2% 60.1%

N-F 10 1,078 1.2% 61.3%

N-R 11 998 1.1% 62.4%

B-R 12 991 1.1% 63.5%

H-A 13 966 1.1% 64.6%

H-R 14 942 1.1% 65.7%

R-G 15 663 0.7% 66.4%

R-B 16 646 0.7% 67.1%

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Typical housing pathways of recipients (all ISRs)

Tenure pathway Rank Frequency Percent Cumulative %

R-H 17 618 0.7% 67.8%

R-F 18 589 0.7% 68.5%

F-N 19 517 0.6% 69.1%

R-B-R 20 509 0.6% 69.6%

R-P 21 501 0.6% 70.2%

O 22 449 0.5% 70.7%

H-P 23 446 0.5% 71.2%

F-B 24 436 0.5% 71.7%

R-N-R 25 432 0.5% 72.2%

A 26 430 0.5% 72.7%

B-A 27 383 0.4% 73.1%

R-F-R 28 377 0.4% 73.5%

N-B 29 368 0.4% 73.9%

H-F 30 364 0.4% 74.3%

H-R-H 31 321 0.4% 74.7%

G-R 32 284 0.3% 75.0%

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Top ten common housing pathways of recipients (Unemployed)

Tenure transitions Rank Frequency Percent

Category Cumulative Category Cumulative

R 1 4612 4612 16.32 16.32

H 2 3236 7848 11.45 27.77

F 3 2093 9941 7.41 35.18

B 4 1527 11468 5.40 40.58

N 5 879 12347 3.11 43.69

P 6 830 13177 2.94 46.63

FR 7 571 13748 2.02 48.65

BR 8 554 14302 1.96 50.61

NR 9 368 14670 1.30 51.91

RB 10 352 15022 1.25 53.16

13

Top ten common housing pathways of recipients (Disability)



H 1 2557 2557 31.74 31.74

R 2 564 3121 7.00 38.74

G 3 474 3595 5.88 44.62

B 4 371 3966 4.60 49.22

FNF 5 237 4203 2.94 52.16

F 6 157 4360 1.95 54.11

RG 7 152 4512 1.89 56

N 8 100 4612 1.24 57.24

P 9 95 4707 1.18 58.42

BR 10 88 4795 1.09 59.51

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Top ten common housing pathways of recipients (Single parent)



R 1 1026 1026 14.03 14.03

H 2 926 1952 12.66 26.69

G 3 390 2342 5.33 32.02

P 4 248 2590 3.39 35.41

HR 5 219 2809 2.99 38.4

RG 6 141 2950 1.93 40.33

BR 7 119 3069 1.63 41.96

RP 8 111 3180 1.52 43.48

B 9 101 3281 1.38 44.86

RBR 10 93 3374 1.27 46.13

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Summary of single tenure change housing pathways for ISRs

HomeOwnership (H)

Boarding (B)

Rent-Free (F)

364

284

663

589

1078

436646

991

966

942

618

383

501446

Private Rental

(R)

Purchase (P)

PublicRent (G)

AgedCare (A)

Non-homeowner (N)

517 1078

998

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Mapping individual longitudinal housing pathways:origins of private rental entries

F

B

G

R

N

R

F

N

BN

R

B

99-10499-100

999-500

1,000+

O N

R

F

N

OF

R

N

R

G

R

F

R

F

N

G

RF

H

H

F

RH

H

H

RNP

B

P

H

R

H

GR

G

B

R

R

R

R

B

B

B

F

R

H

G

B

R

N

F

B

GF

N

R

FH

F

N

N

RF

B

F

R

R

H

G

F

R

NB

B

R

H

FN

RB

RN

F

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Mapping individual longitudinal housing pathways:destinations of private rental exits

G

R

H

B

B

R

O

PA R

F R

R

B

N

B

R B

R

G R

F

G

P

N

R B R

F

R

P

H

R

P

H

P

R

P

F

F

R

G

A

N

F

O

H

G

N

R

B

R

B

R

G

R F

R

G FA

P

B

O

P

R

R

G

GA

F

B

OR

R

F

R

NF

R BR

B

RN

RN

H

R

B

R

B F

N

R

H

B

R

G

P

P

O

G

RF

N

F

BR

B

R

B

G

H

P

P

FR F H

FR

RR

H

R

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Public housing pathways

• Median duration in public housing among ISRs about 3.5 years. Over the full span of the data (8.7 years), 36% of public housing tenants (excluding left censored) remained in public housing.

• Private rental sector plays significant role as an origin and destination tenure for ISRs in public housing. Other rental tenures also important

• Clear tendency for ISRs to return to their previous tenure type after exiting public housing, and this is apparent for every tenure type excepting aged care

• 30% of all cases who exited PH but remained on IS subsequently re-entered PH

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Housing pathways based around public housing (all ISRs)



G 1 2400 2400 29.87 29.87

RG 2 663 3063 8.25 38.12

GR 3 284 3347 3.53 41.66

RGR 4 127 3474 1.58 43.24

GA 5 110 3584 1.37 44.60

BG 6 104 3688 1.29 45.90

NG 7 84 3772 1.05 46.94

GRG 8 74 3846 0.92 47.87

GNG 9 66 3912 0.82 48.69

GH 10 65 3977 0.81 49.50

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Most common housing pathways associated with public housing (Unemployment ISRs)



G1

305 305 16.78 16.78

RG2

101 406 5.56 22.34

GR3

69 475 3.80 26.14

NG 428 503 1.54 27.68

RGR 527 530 1.49 29.17

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Most common housing pathways associated with public housing (Disability ISRs)



G1

474 474 30.19 30.19

RG2

152 626 9.68 39.87

GR3

33 659 2.10 41.97

BG 431 690 1.97 43.94

RGR 521 711 1.34 45.28

22

Most common housing pathways associated with public housing (Single parent ISRs)



G1

390 390 21.76 21.76

RG2

141 531 7.87 29.63

GR3

90 621 5.02 34.65

RGR 447 668 2.62 37.27

GRG 522 690 1.23 38.5

23

Summary of ISR transitions into and out of public housing

Private Rental (54.6%)

Boarding (16.9%)

‘Non-home owner‘ (14.5%)

Rent-free (9.6%)

Owner/Purchaser (2.0%)

Private Rental (45.4%)

Owner/Purchaser (5.8%)

Rent-free (11%)

Boarding (15.7%)

‘Non-home owner‘ (15.8%)

Movements from Movements to

Public Housing

(G)

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Mapping individual longitudinal housing pathways:

origins of public housing entries

RB

F

N

R

P

G

R

R

B

R

G

F

N

R

H

B

G

F

N

F

G

H

F

R

B

N

B

G

N

R

FR

F

R

B

R

RN

NB

N

N

N

N

N

N

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

B

B

B

B

B

B

B

F

B

B

B

B

B

B

H

H

H

H

H

F

F

F

F

F

FF

F G

G

G

G

G

G

G

G

G

G

P

N

N

N

F

FF

F

F

F

N

N

N

N

R

R

R

R

R

R

B

BB

B

B

B

B

N

N

N

N

N

N

N

N

R

R

R

R

R

H

H

F

F

RR

R

RR

RR

R

H

R

663

55

48104

8451

66 28

53

99-50199-100200+

26

14 10

1814

10

14

3718

24

37

23

30

12

F 10

74

31

49-10 2-9

15

10

25

Mapping individual longitudinal housing pathways:destinations of public housing exits

GF

R

99-50499-100500+

49-10 9-3

F

B

RG

R

G

G N

B

R

F

R

R

R

R R

R

R

R

B

B

B

N

N

N

G

G

G

G

B

B

P

P

B

R

B

P

F

F

FF

F

FN

N

N

N

R

G

G

G

G

G

G

G

G

G

G

G

G

R

G

R

R

H

P

F

B

A

A

A

A

A

N

R

R

F

RR

R

R

A

R

R

P

PB

H

F

F

G

RG

G

50

13

661

154

33

51

141

92

61

75

134

52

104

41

40 24

63

39

37

48

17

N

RR

G

32

10

F

R

R

B

14

8035 4515

G

B

A

F

F

G

R

R

BB

G

F

R

R

R

N

N 13

15

F

15

G

A

H

10

89

17

F

R

G

H

50

11

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Drivers, influences, factors

• The housing pathways identified in the study raise questions about why tenure movements occur, and how they may be linked to influential factors:– How are tenure movements associated with changes in

incomes?– How are they linked to changes in other circumstances (social,

economic, personal)?– What are the drivers behind the housing pathways of income

support recipients?Are they about tenure ‘choices’, constraints or other decisions?

27

Commentary and conclusions

• Discourses about traditional ‘housing careers’ and related assumptions about linear tenure movements (up) giving way to more nuanced appreciation of the diversity of ‘housing pathways’

• Housing consumption patterns of Income Support Recipients illustrate diversity of housing pathways

• Income support recipients not a homogenous population in terms of housing pathways

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• Static tenure breakdown of ISRs suggest some characteristics at last observation have similarities with those of broader population, while others differ significantly from broader population:– Private rental and home ownership rates among ISRs actually very

close to whole of population– Home purchase among ISRs much lower– Informal rental and other arrangements much higher

• More dynamic, time based analyses indicate high rates of stability on the one hand, to a complex history of multiple transitions on the other

• Most IRSs do not change tenures, or undergoing limited movements, whilst on income support

• Now, the more elaborate set of tenure changes that some ISRs undergo can also been seen

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• Importance of home ownership among IRSs

• Importance of the private rental market in the broader housing system:

– As a tenure of significance for ISRs

– As a gateway tenure in the housing system, at least as far as ISRs are concerned

• Familiarity with previous housing option influence future tenure decisions?

• Revolving door into and out of public housing for some SHA clients

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• Further research and analysis implications?

• Seelig T, Han JH, O’Flaherty M, Short P, Haynes M, Baum S, Western M, Jones A (2005) Housing consumption patterns & earnings behaviour of income support recipients over time, AHURI Positioning Paper

• Seelig T, Han JH, O’Flaherty M, Haynes (forthcoming) Housing consumption patterns & earnings behaviour of income support recipients over time, AHURI Final Report

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