The High Plains Groundwater

Availability Study: Abundant Groundwater Doesn’t

Necessarily Mean Abundant Surface

Water

U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

Steven M. Peterson, PG, J.S. Stanton,

N.A. Houston, S.L. Qi, A.T. Flynn, and D.W. Ryter

Overview

• Groundwater Resources Program, water

availability for principal aquifer systems

• Characteristics of the Northern High Plains

aquifer, model, and assessment of future

water availability

• Streamflow triggers driving integrated

management

Regional-Scale Approach to a National Assessment

http://water.usgs.gov/ogw/gwrp/stratdir/activities.html

Source: Maupin and Barber, 2005

Total Withdrawals by Aquifer in US--2000

Our plan of study…

• New groundwater models of all three portions

of the High Plains aquifer beyond scope

• Estimates of selected water budget

components for the entire High Plains aquifer

• New model of the Northern High Plains

aquifer

High Plains

Groundwater

Availability Study

Water Budget

Report

Notes on SIR 2011-5183

• For the entire High Plains aquifer

• Compiled and compared previously published

estimates of water-budget components,

relevant to groundwater

• For some components, generate additional

estimates using new techniques

• No judgments nor endorsements of the

quality of the estimates

Estimated

Recharge,

2000-2009

Range of Water Budget Volumes: 1940-49

Units = Million ac-ft/yr

Range of Water Budget Volumes: 2000-09

Units = Million ac-ft/yr

High Plains Digital Data

Series Report

• Contains 7

geodatabases with

spatial data from the

water-budget report,

geologic data, historical

and forecasted land-use

data, and water levels

and stream base flows

February 9, 2015

Soil-Water Balance Model

• Daily Soil-Water Balance based on readily

available physical and climatic data

• Refined SWB code (USGS Techniques and

Methods 6-A31) beyond what was available

at the time of the water-budget report (SIR

2011-5183), to better represent effects of

agriculture and estimate groundwater

irrigation

• Revised water budget report SWB model to

cover entire 1940-2009 period

Groundwater Recharge

Measured and Estimated

Data for Calibration

• Nearly 335,000 spring and fall water levels

from 1940-2009

• Over 8,100 water levels for pre-development

• 1940-2009 stream base flow estimated for

over 11,000 measurements at 91 gages

• Predevelopment stream base flow estimated

for 25 major gages

1940-2008 Water LevelsTemporal Distribution

1940

2008

Streamgage Locations

Calibration Approach

• Parameter estimation using PEST

– Over 1,300 parameters

• temporal and spatial changes in recharge

• hydraulic conductivity

• streambed hydraulic conductivity

– More than 25 programs and 10 batch files; many

set up to run in automated fashion

• Parallel Computing, about 65 nodes used

Considerations

• Size of the area and resulting amount of data

required innovative approaches

• Benefits from previous and ongoing studies

– For instance, integration of geophysical data

• Collaboration with USGS National Research

Program, and other colleagues

Current Status

• Model calibration complete pending review

process

• Model report writing underway

Yet to come…

• Analysis of Water Availability

• Final Report

Calibration Results

• Mean water level residual: -1.5 feet

– About 335,000 measurements from 1940-2009

• Simulated and estimated stream base flows:

mean residual <14 ft^3/s (charts to follow)

Provisional, Simulated

Groundwater Level Residuals

1950s2000s

PROVISIONAL

PROVISIONAL

! !

Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Earthstar Geographics, CNES/Airbus DS, USDA, USGS, AEX, Getmapping, Aerogrid, IGN, IGP, swisstopo, and the GIS User Community

!

Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Earthstar Geographics, CNES/Airbus DS, USDA, USGS, AEX, Getmapping, Aerogrid, IGN, IGP, swisstopo, and the GIS User Community

PROVISIONAL

PROVISIONAL

!

Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Earthstar Geographics, CNES/Airbus DS, USDA, USGS, AEX, Getmapping, Aerogrid, IGN, IGP, swisstopo,

and the GIS User Community

PROVISIONAL

PROVISIONAL

!

Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Earthstar Geographics, CNES/Airbus DS, USDA, USGS, AEX,

Getmapping, Aerogrid, IGN, IGP, swisstopo, and the GIS User Community

PROVISIONAL

PROVISIONAL

!

Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Earthstar Geographics, CNES/Airbus DS, USDA, USGS, AEX,

Getmapping, Aerogrid, IGN, IGP, swisstopo, and the GIS User Community

PROVISIONAL

PROVISIONAL

!

Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Earthstar Geographics, CNES/Airbus DS, USDA, USGS, AEX,

Getmapping, Aerogrid, IGN, IGP, swisstopo, and the GIS User Community

PROVISIONAL

PROVISIONAL

Analysis of Future Water

Availability (2009-2050)• Estimates of future land-use patterns

• Climate data : downscaled Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) data

• Future land-use and climate data + soil-

water balance model to estimate future

recharge and groundwater withdrawals for

irrigation

• Assess impacts on future streamflows and

groundwater levels

Future Land UseFORE-SCE model

March 19th, 2015

March 19th, 2015

March 19th, 2015

Future Land-Cover

Summary

Minor classes not shown: forest (2 more),

disturbed, mining, barren, another

wetland

Other Potential Uses

• Published model and analyses are really just

the start…

• For example, could be adapted to investigate

many other questions, from local to aquifer-

scale

• Foundation for future studies

• Many other possibilities…

Areas for Possible Further

Development• A simulation of landscape hydrology fully

coupled with groundwater hydrology would

provide additional information, such as:

– Forecasts of the availability of surface-water for

irrigation

– Efficient analysis of irrigation delivery tradeoffs

– More efficient forecasting of effects of land-use or

crop-type changes on water resources

– Characterization of co-mingled irrigated agriculture

March 19th, 2015

Climate

dataLand

use data

Sequentially Coupled Model

Soil-water

balance

Output: estimated

Irrigation, recharge

Groundwater

model

Aquifer

data

Stream

data

Output: simulated

water budgets,

water levels,

streamflows

March 19th, 2015

•Think of it like, MODFLOW- plus

• Integrated Hydrologic/Land-Use

Model

•All the water, all the time,

everywhere

• Couples:

Hydrologic processes and

flows

Irrigation demand and

availability

Farm-by-farm accounting

MODFLOW-OWHM

Climate

data

Land

use data

Fully Coupled Model

Integrated landscape hydrology

and groundwater flow model

Aquifer

data

Stream

data

Output: simulated

water budgets, irrigation demand

and supply, interaction of landscape

and groundwater hydrology, water

levels, streamflows

Summary• High Plains aquifer is an important

national and regional resource

• Subregions are unique and

different from each other in many

ways

• Hydrogeology and processes

affecting the groundwater system,

define the challenges

• Study and models address driving

water management issues, for the

nation and the region

CONTACT INFORMATION

Steven M. Peterson (402) 328-4151

e-mail: speterson@usgs.gov

Robert B. Swanson

Director

(402) 328-4110

rswanson@usgs.gov

Jason M. Lambrecht

Associate Director for

Hydrologic Data

(402) 328-4124

jmlambre@usgs.gov

Richard C. Wilson, P.E.

Deputy Director

(402) 328-4120

wilson@usgs.gov

Ronald B. Zelt

Associate Director for NAWQA

(402) 328-4140

rbzelt@usgs.gov