The growing energy and carbon footprint of China’s changing diet

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    The groing energ! an"

    carbon footprint of#hina$s changing "ietPh% can"i"ate research proposal

    acob 'a(ins

    September 27, 2013

    Super)isors* #hunbo +a

    Ste)en Schilii

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    Presentation outline

    -ac(groun"

    Problem statement

    Aims an" ob.ecti)es

    +etho"olog! an" "ata

    Stage 1 / %eterminants of "ietar! change

    Stage 2 / #hina$s pro.ecte" foo" energ! an" #2

    Stage 3 / mporte" foo" energ! "eman" an" #2

    or( pro"ucts an" outcomes

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    Presentation outline

    -ac(groun" Problem statement

    Aims an" ob.ecti)es

    +etho"olog! an" "ata

    Stage 1 / %eterminants of "ietar! change

    Stage 2 / #hina$s pro.ecte" foo" energ! an" #2

    Stage 3 / mporte" foo" energ! "eman" an" #2

    or( pro"ucts an" outcomes

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    ester -ron, orl" atch nstitute,1445

    'ighl! criticie" an" contro)ersial

    6ho ill fee" #hina8

    Posite" #hina oul" be unableto pro)i"e for its onpopulation, ithout ta(ing

    aa! from the rest of theorl"

    9uestione" e:isting foo" pro.ections

    Stan"ar" metho"s

    Accounting

    Assumptions

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    Since 147;, #hina$s econom! gron rapi"l!,

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    #onsumption implications

    Research on #hina$s groing foo" consumption* Arable lan" @a!lor, Steinfel" et alB 2005, Pimentel 2011C

    ater suppl! @Duan an" 'ubace( 2007, 'ubace(, Duan et alB2004C

    Research on #hina$s increasing energ! "eman"s*

    Energ! intensit! @+a an" Stern 200;, hao, +a et alB 2010C

    #2emissions @iu, Deng et alB 2012, Su an" Ang 2012C

    Research gap*hat role "oes #hinese foo" consumption ha)e in

    energ! "eman" an" #2pro"uction

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    Dreenhouse gas

    emissions b! sector

    @Source* Emission %atabase for Dlobal Atmospheric Research )ersion 3B2, fast trac( 2000 pro.ectC

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    Presentation outline

    -ac(groun" Problem statement

    Aims an" ob.ecti)es

    +etho"olog! an" "ata

    Stage 1 / %eterminants of "ietar! change

    Stage 2 / #hina$s pro.ecte" foo" energ! an" #2

    Stage 3 / mporte" foo" energ! "eman" an" #2

    or( pro"ucts an" outcomes

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    Problem statement

    #hina$s groing foo" consumption is anticipate" toincrease o)erall energ! "eman" an" #2 emissions

    "omesticall! an" internationall!B

    t is unclear, hoe)er, ho increase" consumptionof higher >ualit! foo"s ill further increase energ!re>uirements an" #2pro"uctionB

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    Presentation outline

    -ac(groun" Problem statement

    Aims an" ob.ecti)es

    +etho"olog! an" "ata

    Stage 1 / %eterminants of "ietar! change

    Stage 2 / #hina$s pro.ecte" foo" energ! an" #2

    Stage 3 / mporte" foo" energ! "eman" an" #2

    or( pro"ucts an" outcomes

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    Pro.ect Aims

    %etermine the increase" energ! "eman" an" #2 emissions %omestic pro"uction

    nternational imports

    -ase" on increase"foo" consumption,specificall!*

    ?ruit

    Fegetables

    %air!

    +eat

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    Pro.ect b.ecti)es

    Anser the >uestions of*

    1B 'o ill #hina$s continue" economic groth alter the "iet an" foo"consumption patterns of its population

    2B 'o ill #hina$s changing "iet "irectl! an" in"irectl! affect energ!

    "eman"s an" resultant #2emissions

    3B 'o ill #hina$s changing "iet affect the energ! "eman"s an" emissionsof the (e! nations responsible for #hina$s agricultural imports

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    Presentation outline

    -ac(groun" Problem statement

    Aims an" ob.ecti)es

    +etho"olog! an" "ata

    Stage 1 / %eterminants of "ietar! change

    Stage 2 / #hina$s pro.ecte" foo" energ! an" #2 Stage 3 / mporte" foo" energ! "eman" an" #2

    or( pro"ucts an" outcomes

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    %eterminants of #hina$s

    "ietar! change iterature re)ie E)aluating the "ri)ers of "ietar! change

    Economic, cultural, technological, structural

    Assessment of metho"s an" assumptions

    9uantif! "eterminants S!nthesie" from e:isting literature

    %e)elop a range of scenarios

    e)el of "etail specific for later stages ofthis research

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    +o"elling "irect an"

    in"irect effects nputGoutput mo"el using* #hina -S 2007 inputGoutput tables @135 sectorsC

    E#%G?A Agricultural utloo( 2013G2022

    #hina -S 2012 #hina Energ! Statistical Hearboo(

    - 2013 #hina Energ! %ataboo( P## 200I D'D Dui"elines

    Stage 1 "eterminants use" to estimate technicalcoefficients for 2022

    Supplemente" ith computable general e>uilibrium@#DEC mo"elling

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    nputGoutput mo"el

    Sample

    Selecte" foo"pro.ection scenarios

    n"ustr! sectors"isaggregate"

    ?inal "eman"change" base" on

    pro.ections Sol)e for ne

    interme"iate"eman"s

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    Presentation outline

    -ac(groun" Problem statement

    Aims an" ob.ecti)es

    +etho"olog! an" "ata

    Stage 1 / %eterminants of "ietar! change

    Stage 2 / #hina$s pro.ecte" foo" energ! an" #2

    Stage 3 / mporte" foo" energ! "eman" an" #2

    or( pro"ucts an" outcomes

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    #hina$s top agricultural

    import suppliers

    @Source* DTS, Dlobal Tra"e Atlas "atabase, JST# +ar 2011C

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    nternational implications

    #hina$s top 5 import suppliers of agricultural imports Jnite" States

    -rail

    Argentina

    European Jnion

    Australia

    Stage 2 mo"els e:pan"e" to multi regional inputGoutputK#DE mo"elsto incorporate #hina$s agricultural import suppliers

    DTAP ; %atabase or 2005 E#% inputGoutput tables

    Ph!sical units of energ! an" emissions lin(e" to international impacts

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    Presentation outline

    -ac(groun" Problem statement

    Aims an" ob.ecti)es

    +etho"olog! an" "ata

    Stage 1 / %eterminants of "ietar! change

    Stage 2 / #hina$s pro.ecte" foo" energ! an" #2 Stage 3 / mporte" foo" energ! "eman" an" #2

    or( pro"ucts an" outcomes

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    or(ing papers

    Paper 1 9uantification of the "eterminants of #hina$s changing "iet s!nthesie"

    from the bo"! of literature

    Paper 2

    E)aluation of ho the changes in #hina$s "iet ill affect energ! supplies an"

    #2emissions un"er "ifferent foo" consumption scenarios

    Paper 3

    Presentation of the changes to international energ! sectors an" thegeospatial "istribution of ph!sical energ! "eman" an" #2generationassociate" ith #hina$s changing "iet in its top agricultural import suppliers

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    E:pecte" outcomes

    #hina "iligent about securing its foo" suppl! Agriculture onl! 3= of #hina$s imports, !et comprise" 4= of the global

    agricultural tra"e

    J(raine leasing #hina up to 3 million hectares of lan" @5= of J(raineC

    JBSB por( pro"ucer, Smithfiel" ?oo"s, purchase" b! #hinese firmShuanghui ntl for L7B1 billion

    #hina ill not 6star)e the orl" to fee" itself8 #hina$s energ! "eman" an" #2emissions increasing

    hat ill the implications of #hina$s changing "ietbe on energ! an" #2, both "omesticall! an"

    internationall!

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    Any questions?