The Greater Antelope Valley

LancasterPalmdale

California CityRidgecrestTehachapi

MojaveRosamond

Los Angeles Co.East Kern Co.

Mission Statement

Greater Antelope Valley Economic Alliance (GAVEA)

Antelope Valley Economic Research & Education Foundation (AVEREF)

mission is to grow, retain, and attract businesses in the Antelope Valley

Antelope Valley By Zip Code

USA Equals 1/5 of World Economy

USA and China Comparison

• United States Population 311 Million• China’s Population 1.5 Billion

• United States 14.7 T GDP• China 5.7 T GDP

USA and China Comparison

• United States Population 311 Million• China’s Population 1.5 Billion

• United States 14.7 T GDP• China 5.7 T GDP

• China’s Gross Domestic Product need to grow $75 Trillion

• National Job Loss Between 7-8 Million

• Normal Economy Create 200K jobs/mo

• LA County Lost 1.5M Jobs

• LA County Gained 100,000• Source: LAEDC

Jobs ??????

Corporations Holding Large Sums of Cash…• 2004/2005First came to GAVEA’s attention• Research: Follow the Smart Money• Microsoft $250B• Hewlett $100B• Results Jobs not being created• 2011 Corporation still holding cash• Estimate Estimated to be: $2T

Why???

California Fundamentals

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

% Jobless

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14Annual % Growth

Personal Income Growth --->

Unemployment Rate <---

Long-Term Population Projections May Change

2010 2015 2020 2030Lancaster 145075 181493 202407 242523Palmdale 151343 220112 257546 329322Unincorp. 128673 161040 223243Cal City Region 23823 32509 39641Ridgecrest Region 36647 39442 41737Rosamond Region 29399 31805 40245Tehachapi Region 38678 47691 57632Total 486141 658835 772440 974343GAVEA 486141 536505 593087 721932

Source: DOF, SCAG and Kern COG

Cost of Doing Business

  2006 2010Lancaster Moderate Cost Low CostPalmdale Moderate Cost Average CostIndio High Cost Average CostTulare High Cost High CostRiverside High Cost High CostSan Bernardino Very High Cost Very High CostLos Angeles Very High Cost Very High CostChandler, AZ Very High Cost Very High CostPhoenix, AZ Very High Cost Very High Cost

Source: Kosmont Cost of Doing Business

Property Tax Comparison  2006 2010Lancaster 1.1% 1.1%Palmdale 1.2% 1.3%San Bernardino 1.1% 1.3%Portland, OR 2.1% 2.1%Tucson, AZ 2.3% 2.3%Syracuse, NY 3.8% 2.5%Chandler, AZ 2.9% 2.6%Bullhead City, AZ 1.2% 2.7%Arlington, TX 3.0% 3.0%

Source: Kosmont Cost of Doing Business

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130

2008

2009

Crime Index by National Average

N. Las VegasLancaster

Palmdale

Glendale, AZReno

Source: FBI, GAVEA

Crime Index

N. Las VegasLancaster

Palmdale

Glendale, AZReno

POPULATION CHANGES = CHANGE IN FUTURE WORKFORCE

Hispanic (pop) 2000 2010

% of Change Annual

Lancaster 28,644 42,955 49.96% 5%Palmdale 43,991 67,001 52.31% 5%

White (pop) 2000 2010Lancaster 74,573 83,002 11.30% 1.1%Palmdale 63,905 67,001 4.84% 0.5%

Source: Claritas, GAVEA

The ethnic makeup of the population is changing quickly. About 58% of elementary students are Hispanic/Latino, compared to 33% of the current total population.

More than 20,000 students throughout AV are designated as English Language Learners.

17,000 Student: enrolled in the advanced learning

Hispanic/Latino students less likely to take college preparatory classes.88% of Hispanic Parents agree that a college education is important as compared to 74%USA

AV Employment Loss/Gain by Sector 2001 to 2010 2nd Qtr.

-690-589

-3946122165188

435438

6471,112

1,2922,1832,3522,404

3,3633,422

3,6754,1754,188

-1,500 -500 500 1,500 2,500 3,500 4,500

Federal GovernmentConstruction

Agriculture & MiningInformation

Arts &EntertainmentManagement & Admin. Support

Real EstateUtilities

Wholesale TradeEducational Services

Professional & ScientificTransportation & Warehousing

Finance & InsuranceRetail Trade

State GovernmentHealth Care & Social Assistance

Accomdations & Food S.Other ServicesManufacturing

Local Government

Source: EDD, SFVRC, GAVEA

AV Employment Loss/Gain by Sector 2008 to 2010 2nd Qtr.

Source: EDD, SFVRC, GAVEA

Antelope ValleyAverage Annual Employment

Prelim # Number of Jobs Gained

% of jobs Gained

  2008/ 2008/

  2008 2010 2010 2010Total AV Employment - LA County 76,899 72,340 -4,559 -5.93%Total AV Employment Kern County 23,572 21,945 -1,627 -6.90%

       Total Employment - AV 100,471

94,285 -6,186 -6.16%

Source: EDD, SFVRC, GAVEA

Antelope Valley Annual Employment 2009 to 2010 Comparison

Prelim # Number of Jobs Gained

% of jobs Gained

  2009/ 2009/

  2009 2010 2010 2010Total AV Employment - LA County 73,201 72,340 -861 -1.18%Total AV Employment Kern County 22,597 21,945 -652 -2.89%

       Total Employment - AV

95,798

94,285 -1533 -1.58%

Source: EDD, GAVEA

Antelope ValleyAverage Annual Employment

Prelim # Number of Jobs Gained

% of jobs Gained

  2007/ 2007/

  2007 2010 2010 2010Total AV Employment - LA County 73,358 72,340 -1,018 -1.39%Total AV Employment Kern County 23,086 21,945 -1,141 -4.94%

       Total Employment - AV 96,444

94,285 -2159 -2.23%

Source: EDD, GAVEA

Unemployment Rate

Workforce changes -?

78,000,000

48,000,000

Source: DOL

AV (LA) Employment Loss/Gain by Sector 2008 to 2010 2nd Qtr.

Source: EDD, SFVRC, GAVEA

AV (Kern) Employment Loss/Gain by Sector 2008 to 2010 2nd Qtr.

Source: EDD, SFVRC, GAVEA

NEW BUSINESS LOAN

2009 Reported Business Loans Under $1 Million in the Antelope Valley

2007 2008 2009 % Change

$100,000 or Less

Number of Loans 16,714 11,973 4,255 -64.5%

Amount (in millions) $157 $111 $51 -54.1%

Greater than $100,000 but less than $250,000

Number of Loans 119 84 61 -27.4%

Amount (in millions) $21 $14 $10 -30.0%

Greater than $250,000 but less than $1Million

Number of Loans 97 63 48 -23.8%

Amount (in millions) $48 $33 $25 -25.0%

Total

Number of loans 16,930 12,120 4,364 -64.0%

Amount of Loans (in millions) $226 $159 $86 -45.8%

Loans to Firms with Revenues less than $1 Million

Number of loans 6,909 3,777 1,450 -61.6%

Amount (in millions) $112 $61 $38 -37.6%

Source: FDIC, SFVRC

GAVEA

www.WindSolarCalifornia.Com

R

EE

N

Renewable Energy

• 8,000 MW in permitting and planning process

• Enough capacity to generate power for 1.6 – 2.4M housing units.

• There are 1,720,000 single detached housing units in LA County.

• www.windsolarcalifornia.com

71,000 workers commute to LA from Antelope Valley. The average daily one-way commute is 89 minutes for Palmdale and 67 minutes for Lancaster and Rosamond

Electric Cars

1994-1995 Average Miles per Vehicle

approximate number of

register vehicles in 2006 USA

approximate number of miles traveled in 2006

approximate distance to the sun and back

number of trips to the sun and

back

14,300 251,000,000 3,589,300,000,000 186,000,000 19,297

California Mileage

Time period Number of miles Gallon of gas Amount spent

Number of 9000 tanker

trucks

Number of miles of trucks end to end

(5280 feet per mile)

Number of times from LA to New York (2780.82

Miles)

July 08 15,500,000,000 620,000,000 $2,452,100,000 68,888.88 913.29 0.33

8/07 - 7/08 178,560,000,000 7,142,400,000 $20,248,704,000 793,600.00 10521.21 3 3/4

8/06 - 7/07 182,900,000,000 7,316,000,000 $17,170,652,000 812,888.88 10776.94 3 9/10

2.4% less year over year.

17.9% more year over year

Film, Farming Aerospace

Industrial, Hotels

Antelope Valley Retail Sales

Source: Cities of Lancaster, Palmdale, Cal City, Tehachapi, Ridgecrest

Lancaster Retail Sales 

 Comparison of the High to 2009% of

Growth/Loss Growth/Loss

Calendar Year High 2009 High/Low High/Low in $

       

Apparel $35,280,000 $31,422,000 -10.94% -$3,858,000

General Merchandise $273,169,000 $267,706,000 -2.00% -$5,463,000

Food Stores $74,052,000 $63,420,000 -14.36% -$10,632,000

Eating & Drinking $152,959,000 $140,972,000 -7.84% -$11,987,000

Furniture/Appliances        

Building Materials $197,160,000 $102,192,000 -48.17% -$94,968,000

Auto Dealers $382,772,000 $155,943,000 -59.26% -$226,829,000

Service Stations $149,101,000 $106,128,000 -28.82% -$42,973,000

Other Retail $193,053,000 $99,431,000 -48.50% -$93,622,000

Other Outlets $616,517,000 $324,355,000 -47.39% -$292,162,000

Total -$782,494.000

% of

Growth/loss Growth/loss

Calendar year High 2009 High/2009 High/Low in $

Apparel $103,355,000 $103,355,000 0.00% $0

General Merchandise $334,336,100 $268,404,800 -19.72% -$65,931,300

Food Stores $92,202,000 $67,464,900 -26.83% -$24,737,100

Eating & Drinking $167,443,500 $162,456,100 -2.98% -$4,987,400

Furniture/Appliances $141,156,900 $92,656,200 -34.36% -$48,500,700

Building Materials $141,977,300 $95,501,900 -32.73% -$46,475,400

Auto Dealers $289,834,800 $149,412,400 -48.45% -$140,422,400

Service Stations $171,069,800 $133,267,700 -22.10% -$37,802,100

Other Retail $142,415,200 $105,137,800 -26.18% -$37,277,400

Other Outlets $222,916,200 $87,970,700 -60.54% -$134,945,500Total -$541,079,300

Palmdale Retail Sales

Comparison of High to 2009

TOTAL RETAIL SALES (LOSS)

LANCASTER ($782,494,000)

PALMDALE ($541,071,400)

TOTAL LOSS ($1,323,565,000)

Source: City of Lancaster, Palmdale

Loss of Retail Sales Comparison (2009 as to Historical Year High)

REPRESENTS HIGH YEAR AS TO 2009 YEAR % ofSALES

COMPARISON

       

GrowthLoss

AS TO HISTORICAL

Calendar Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 TO 2009 YEAR

Lancaster $ 2,049,000,000     $ 1,291,569,000 -37% 2001

Palmdale $ 1,726,326,200     $ 1,265,627,500 -27% 2003

Ridgecrest $ 285,824,000     $ 285,120,400 0% 2006

Tehachapi   $ 170,995,000   $ 139,840,000 -18% 2005

California City   $ 44,600,000   $ 29,400,000 -34% 2005

Total $ 4,247,668,200     $ 3,011,556,900 -29% 2003

California Taxable Retail Sales

OCTOBER 29, 1969

• WHAT HAPPENED ON OCTOBER 29, 1969 ??

OCTOBER 29,1969

• FIRST MESSAGE SENT TO CYBERSPACE BY CLUNKY COMPUTER AT UCLA

• AT THE INTERNET 35TH BIRTHDAY PARTY (2004), KLEINROCK SAID,

• “THE INTERNET IS ESSENTIALLY IN ITS STONE AGE.”

THE INTERNET – A Game Changer

• MASS CUSTOMIZING OF THE ENVIRONMENT. “IF YOU WALK INTO A ROOM THE ROOM WILL KNOW IT.” HE CALLED IT INVISIBLE AND NOMADIC COMPUTING.

• ONE DAY ALL HUMANS ON EARTH WILL BE CONNECTED. WE ARE ABOUT 3-4% THERE. CEO OF INTEL

THE INTERNET

• CEO OF BROADCAM, UCLA PROFESSOR AND PHILANTHROPIST, SAMUELI SAID,

“MAYBE WE WILL GET THERE IN 50 YEARS TO

MAKE THE INTERNET INDISPUTABLY UBIQUITOUS AND SECURE”

Dare to Compare

This 982sf 3bed 2bath home in Santa Clarita built in 1962 sold on 08/26/10 for $275,000

  

This 3,448sf 4Bed 3bath home in West Lancaster built in 2005 sold on 08/19/10 for $235,000

Income VS. Housing Affordability

Source: Claritas, GAVEA, Dataquick

2010 Avg. Household

Income

2007Affordability

2010 Affordability

California City $65,755 70 91Phoenix $67,641 70 87Palmdale $72,369 48 83Lancaster $65,375 47 82Greater Tehachapi $72,121 59 79Rosamond $64,697 43 76Santa Clarita $107,510 51 71Reno $65,293 53 65Tucson $49,505 49 64Las Vegas $72,843 43 64Los Angeles $72,785 21 46

Housing – Number of Listings

Source: GAVAR, GAVEA

Jan-

04 Mar

May Ju

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n-05 Mar

May Ju

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n-06 Mar

May Ju

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n-07 Mar

May Ju

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n-08 Mar

May Ju

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ptNo

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n-09 Mar

May Ju

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ptNo

vJa

n-10 Mar

May Ju

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ptNo

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n-11 Mar

May Ju

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v

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

ACTIVE LISTINGS 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Jan 540 1196 1851 3659 4783 3455 1046 1698Feb 571 1133 2269 3717 4876 3080 1145 1827Mar 456 1002 2371 3962 4575 2676 1191 1814Apr 444 920 2561 4333 4572 2007 1181 1743May 509 846 2831 4722 4511 1686 1075 Jun 705 873 3356 5081 4550 1386 1225 Jul 934 875 3772 5190 4173 1264 1309 Aug 1147 1065 4022 5303 4032 1181 1450 Sept 1381 1239 4296 4864 3984 1148 1595 Oct 1500 1513 4437 4950 3953 1105 1692 Nov 1548 1671 4353 5172 3884 1086 1792 Dec 1500 1710 4124 5084 3740 1023 1764 Total Listings 11235 14043 40243 56037 51633 21097 16465 7082

Home Sales2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

AVG. # of salesSales 6568 3067 5784 8836 6322% Change -53% 89% 53% -28%

Source: GAVAR, GAVEA

Jan-

06 Mar

May Ju

lSe

ptN

ovJa

n-07 Mar

May Ju

lSe

ptN

ovJa

n-08 Mar

May Ju

lSe

ptN

ovJa

n-09 Mar

May Ju

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n-10 Mar

May Ju

lSe

ptN

ovJa

n-11 Mar

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

Housing Units Sold in the AV

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

UnitsSold

8,050 9,327 10,074 10,679 7,665 3,475 5,971 9,993 7,602

% Change

16% 8% 9% -28% -55% 72% 67% -24%

Source: First American Title

Average HousingSales Price in the AV

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010AVG.Sales Price $140,807 $169,124 $224,588 $284,572 $314,435 $295,542 $211,461 $142,226 141,433

% Change 20% 34% 26% 10% -6 % -28% -33% 0.6%

Source: First American Title

Annual Notice of Default

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010# of NOD 1484 1285 880 1379 2394 6381 10162 10226 5791% Change -13% -32% 57% 74% 167% 59% 0.6% -43%

Source: Data Quick

Notice of Default by Q

Source: Data Quick

Yearly Home Foreclosure Sales94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

# of F.S.

2017 2204 2964 3725 3096 1892 1363 734 573 278 112 55 274 2383 7327 5592 4166

% Change

9% 34% 20%-

17%-

39%-

28%-

54%-

22%-

51%-

60%-

51% 398% 770% 207% -24% -26%

From high 3725To low 55 (-98.5%)Up to high7327(13,221.8%)

Avg. 2,280/year

Sources: Data Quick

HOME FORECLOSURE SALESBY Q

Source: Data Quick

Lancaster Single Family Building Permits

Year Single Family Permits

Multi- Family Permits

Total

2000 279 132 411

2001 577 194 771

2002 437 0 437

2003 972 2 974

2004 1740 369 2109

2005 2799 78 2877

2006 1663 106 1769

2007 806 2 808

2008 253 144 397

2009 187 80 267

2010 277 0 277

Source: Construction Industry Board

Palmdale Single Family Building Permits

Year Single Family Permits

Multi- Family Permits

Total

1999 495 344 839

2000 608 0 608

2001 812 0 812

2002 978 0 978

2003 946 0 946

2004 1371 0 1371

2005 1579 0 1579

2006 1213 91 1304

2007 839 236 1075

2008 379 158 537

2009 261 0 261

2010 149 0 149

WILD CARDS

• TERRORIST ATTACK• POLITICAL UNREST IN MAJOR OIL

PRODUCING COUNTRIES• GOVERNMENT FINANCES –LOCAL &

NATIONAL• BABY-BOOMERS LEAVING THE JOB MARKET• LOSS OF CONFIDENCE IN THE DOLLAR

Mel LaynePresident

(661) 945-27411028 W. Ave L-12 Suite 101

Lancaster, CA 93534www.aveconomy.org