The Golden Years(2)

8/3/2019 The Golden Years(2)

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....... stands for Van der eil. A ll W' s letters and articles, as far as Ianascertain from m y research into the Sporting C hronicle H andicap B ook's SportsForum from 1978 to 1982 - w hich in my o pin io n were 'The G olden Y ears O f Vander eil' - have been included in the booklets 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981 Parts 1& 2 and 1982, except 'Listing Speed Figures' an adjunct to W's 'A W ordAbout Evaluation From Van der eil' (Oct 10, 1981) and 'Van der eilA pproach To M ultiple Betting ' (D ec 26, 1981). Both these can now be read in the"Ultimate eil of Fortune" which chronicles the rest of the articles W wrotefor th e S po rtin g Chro nicle and R aceform H andicap Books from 1981 to 1987.W ' s letters and articles appear in full, but a nwnber of readers' letters havebeen abbreviated where their comments have no d ire ct b ea rin g on the Van dereil Methodology. E very attem pt has been m ade to ensure that all m aterial hasbeen copied correctly and that dates are as stated .

R eaders w ill find follow ing the correspondence m uch easier if they refer to th eW TreelIndex, in which each letter/article is num bered in accordance with itsnum ber in the booklets to m ake cross-reference easier.

For example SEE 1, follow ing the W , FEB 2 article, refers to connnents inthe , BRIGHTON, J 12 article which is num bered No 1. Follow ing eachcontributors' name is the headline used in the Sporting Chronicle HandicapB ook, unless there w as no headline. In certain instances, salient points have beengiven in parenthesis, unless the headline w as self-inform ative and readers w illnote that throughout the W booklets the same reference number has beengiven at the start of the article/letter as in the Tree.

Copyright Raceform Ltd 1993All rig hts re serv ed . No part of this publication m ay be reproduced, stored in aretrieval system , or transm itted, in any form or by any m eans, w ithout the priorperm ission in w riting of the publisher, nor otherw ise circulated in any form ofbinding or cover. R evised 1996.

ACknOWledgments:D eG .C hoat, K .H ead, J.H ow ie, A .R aynes, K .Spiers and the encouragem ent Ofmany sports Forum readers.

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WIN, BRIGHTON, JAN 12: Hotform Must Look Between Lines 9VDW, FEB 2: How About Swop Shop? SEE 1 ~ 10HOTFORM, WH ~HAMPST D, FEB 2: Form Cycles Worth Ride(Comments on WIN, BRIGHTON'S letter SEE 1 10

:4 G. HALL, LINCOLN, FEB 16: No headline SEE 2Says VOW could prove interesting) ............................................ 10METHODMAKER, FEB 23: In Searching For A Staking Plan 11

A. CHAMBERS, KENT, MARCH 2:If You Pass Hat Round, Throw InSilver Yourself SEE 2AttClc:ksVD .................................................................................... 11

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VDW, MARCH 23: Odd Man Out Hands In Staking Plan SEE 5Gives Methodmaker his version of a staking plan 11VDW, APRIL 6: Narrow The Field To Gain Winning Strip SEE 4Provides food for thought in reply to G. Hail 12

G.HALL, APRIL 6:Only Knows One Man Who Can Walk On Water SEE 6Puts A. Chambers in his place) r 13

I FORENSIS STREPITUS, HERNE BAY, APRIL 13:'Dutchman' Challenge SEE 8(Supports VD ................................................................................ 1311

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DY BACKER, GREENHILL, APRIL 13:First Five Favour SEE 8Gives sample figures of winners in first five of forecast) 13METHODMAKER, APRIL 20:Betting Forecasts Narrow The Field SEE 8Has some respect for VDW's method,but strikes cautionary note ........................................................... 14


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13 VDW, JUNE 1: Numbers Game To Form A Picture SEE 12(Replies to Methodmaker and adds consistency and fo figurepercentages of his own) ............................................................ 14

14~ G. HALL, LINCOLN, JAN 11:Constant Stream Of Winners .. SEE 13PrCli!SEt!5D ................................................................................. 1 E ;

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VDW, FEB 22: Return Of The Flying Dutchman(A reprint of VOW's letters of 1978,but superfluous to The Golden Years Of Van der Wheil)VDW, MARCH 8: Has Spotted Method's Key SEE 14Congratulates G. Hall and advises regarding placings,Unplaced, Fell, etc 17

J. P. HOLLIS, BRIGHTON, MARCH 15:As Easy As A and B SeelWrites about his plan for adjusting speed figures according towhether a above or b below standard time ~1817

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A. DUNCAN, LEEDS, APRIL 5:Grateful(Cannot find 'key') ................................................................19F. CHESTER, ST ALBANS, APRIL 19: Pays To Play Percentages(Discusses VDW's various ideas) 19

VDW, MAY 3: Look Before You Leap InGives ideas on list of horses to follow 20I VDW, MAY 24: Dutchman States:'No Magic Formula' SEE 1E ; ,17& 18

Talks about the 'key' and answers J. P.Hollis,

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A. Duncan and F.Chester ............................................................. 21T .A. SWANN, ESSEX, JUNE 7:Mr van dar Wheil - A Man Of Lettersl SEE 8,19& 7Thanks VDW and asks about var iOUS pOints in methodOlOgy) 22G. HINDLE, MANCHESTER, JUNE 7: speed & Form Figures Best(States difference between speed figures and form figures 23

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VOW. JULY 5: Lazy Man's Way ToWin SEE 21 & 22entions he will reply to T. A. Swann at a later date andtells him to look at G. Hindle's letter. Gives doubles plan ......24VOW, AUG 23: Speed Is No UseWithout Fo JSays 'Dutchman' SEE 21

swars T.A. Swann and gives an examplet l t s i l 1 l 1 I I ' t s c : r l l b b l t f 5 51 r C l : E t 25L. J. PEVERELL, WEMBLEY, SEPT 13:Top Jockey Tip SEE 24(Demeans VOW and says stick to Jockeys) ........................26

EVER OPTI ISTIC, HASTINGS, SEPT 6:Gets It Together On Form Figures(Thanks VOW for encouragement to research intoFo C()mbirlCitiol1 S . i t l l C l t i ( ) I 1 ) . . . . . . . . 2~

VOW, SEPT 20, ABRIDGE REPRINT OF FEB 22 REPRINT

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A. PARNELL, WIR L, JAN 1~National IdeaSuggests should have Grand National lottery) 28F. CHESTER, ST ALBANS, JAN 1~:Three InOne Plan Only For The BraveSuggests backing three horses in same race ............................... 28

R. S ITH, MORECAMBE, JAN 1~:rs These Loss-cutting ethodsl(Slams Sports Forum ideas,but offers Rough and Tumble for 1980 Grand National) ................. 29I VOW, MARCH 13: Flying Dutchman Believes In ConsistencySEE 25 &26

AddS another crOSS-CheCkand discusses ratingS and refers toletters from L. J. peverell and Ever OptimistiC) .............................. 29316

K. SIMPSON, STAFFS, MARCH 13:NOhead.InqUires from VDW a b o u t fo figures 31


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J. P. HOLLIS, LONDON, MARCH 13: RatingsAsks VDW about rati ngs ............31G. G. G., EDMONTON, MARCH 20: A Discussion Group Ideal(Writes about a discussion group and its benefits) .........32VOW, APRIL 17: Let's Have A Lottery SEE 27,28 &29(Gives his way of betting three horses in doubles and refers toletters from A. Parnell, F. Chester and R. Smith .........2VOW, MAY 29: A Method Not Rules Needed SEE 31,32 & 33Talks about his fo ula and class and also refers to lettersfrom K. Simpson, J. P. Hollis and G. G. G., Edmonton 3

36 VOW, FEB 28: Sports Forum Special SEE 35Refers to Ken Spiers' letter sent to him re VDW's article

F. CHESTER, ST ALBANS, MARCH 14:Shorthand Way Of Estimating Win Chance(Refers to consistency form figuresand asks VOW to elucidate SEE 39) ........8 VOW, MARCH 28: Van dar Wheil Spells It All Out

Illustrates his methodology with race exampes ....................... 39

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'A Method Not Rules Needed') ...........................................36

K. SPIERS, ESSEX, MARCH 14: Best Ever Article SEE 36 &24Refers to VOW's 'Speed No UseWithout Fo ......7

J.WRIGHT, WEST MIDLANDS, APRIL 4: SignificantQueries staking plan given by VOW on 23/3"8 SEE 7 46WIN, BRIGHTON, APRIL 11:Be Warned Of Vale Of Tears SEE 39(Says VOW is not infallible andquotes race exampte at HaYdOCk) ............................................... 46VOW, APRIL 18: Market Harborough MaestroClears UP one or TWO Polnts SEE 40REtJliEt!5( ) " . \l\frigllt ...................................................................... 411

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43 J. HOWIE, TEWKESBURY, APRIL 18:Winners Changed His MindIn his opinion VDW most important contributorto Sports Forum in the last seven years) .................................. 5144 SPORTS FORU ,MAY 9Queries from J. D. Marney SEE 43 ,J. Meredith,S. G. H., Sally Oak, F.Chester, St Albans, P.A. S., Margate,H. B., Kent, H. H. Cranleigh, Tonyel, Weston Super Mare,H. c:i.,c:i12lI5g()lRf...................................................................5145 VDW, MAY 30: VDW Puts Everyone Straight SEE 43 & 44AnslRfers readers queries from May 9 edition) ............................... 5246 HOTFORM, HERTS, JUNE 27: Still ScepticalClaims VDW method did not select Oaks lRfinner ..................5847 VDW, OCTOBER 10: A Word About Evaluation From Van derWheilEvaluates time as a yardstick and uses 2,000 Guineasas an example. Also article on compiling a list of horsesfrom speed figures, but not relevant to methodology

and not printed inThe Golden Years) ............................................... 59

48 R. WALKER, HUDDERSFIELD, JAN 23, Keep Up RacingExcerpt only because rest irrelevant to VDW Methodology ....... 6349 VDW, APRIL 3: Temperament Bedevils Most Of The PuntersSEE 36,41,46 & 48Answers queries from K. Spiers SEE 36 and S. P.0100 Anyanga(believed both leHers sent to VO ; Win of Brighton SEE 41,

Hotfo of Herts SEE 46 and R.Walker SEE 48) 63

The VDW Tree is copyright Of Raeeform Ltd 1993 and no part may be PUbliShed,reprOduced. stored in any retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or bY anymeans Without prior permiSSion in writing Of the publisher, nor otherwiseCirCUlated in any form O f binding or cover.8


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.........regular contributor of Brighton w rote to the Sporting C hronicle H andicapBook's letter page edited by me and called Sports Forum at the start of 1978, littledid he think that his letter would herald one of the longest-running discussion onw inner-finding that ever graced the pages of Sports F orum . His letter, printed on Jan 12,was a reply to another regular contributor Hotform, of eathatnpstead, and entitled:HOTFO MUST LOOK BE'I'Wf:EN LINES

LONG before Iknew that the H andicap B ook existed, Iwas given a hint on how tomake racing pay by an o ld pro fessio na l p un ter. I was intrigued and set off w ith the'hint' along the ro ad th at 'Hotform' is now gingerly treading to find w inners. A long thew ay lowed m uch to reading between the lines in your magaz ine.

I should imagine that one or two 'old hands' are having a quiet chuckle at hisovious and understandable confusion. But his enthusiasm is there and that m eans a lot.'Hotform', it is th ose complicatio ns yo u speak of that w ill help you find w inners. Inmyorig ina l le tte r Iave m ore hints than Iver got.Let m e recap: Iwas explaining why the end of the Flat season was difficult bytalking about the com plexity of form-cycles, I stand by th at, F orm cycles are w hatracing is all about, that and class. Maney the two and you will know what trainers are upto. The N .H . season is easier because the horses involved are horses kept in training byexperienced men who know their potential. The own factors are few compared tothe com plications of juveniles that m ake up the bulk of the Flat. Their form -cycles aremore predic tab le .Of co urse, th e arg umen ts again st are clear:1The favourite situation is little different to the F lat, so no advantage there.2 Weather varia tions c au se p roblems.3 at about the fallers?I can see no sense in an untoward accent on favourites, (sorry Methodmaker), forwhat on earth are they but horses generally favoured for a variety of vague andfluctuating reasons only a third of which w in anyw ay? A s for varying conditions, theseexperienced nags 'weather the storm ' better than the sensitive Flat anim al, and theyrarely fall when they are in form , T hey usually fall, if fall they do, when not quite at'peak' . But they do have this vital advantage of experience. A racecourse is a part oftheir business, the trainers know what they a re about.It has always struck m e that lea rn in g th e cra ft Of punting is m ore use than the searchfor a system , which is different from being system atic, But that by all means keep anotebook in reach in which to jot down anything that may be useful, as a birdwatchero r artist fills n ote-bo ok s With Observ ation s an d sk etch es fo r compariso n. Inoted thevery day after your last letter appeared in th e SCHB, 'TWO m ile Chasers are SUCha

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rarity that they can hardly fail to go through a season w ithout at least one win' , saidJohn Freeman in th e Spo rtin g Ch ronic le , Saturday, Dec 17. T hought-p ro vo kin g stu ff. Ifyou are going into this thing, go into it seriously.M i t I suggest 'H otform ' that you find th e answe rs to th e follow ing?1 How can you tell the class horse in the race?2 en is it at its peak?3 How many horses are worth considering in the race?4 Can you tell when a horse is 'poised'?.nswer them and you are a long way ahead of th e fie ld . ._ _. , Br igh ton .~.s letter resulted in my receiving one from C. Van derHarborou that Irinted in the Feb 2 edition headed:'How About Swop Shop?' and read: Most weeks Sports Forum is a m ixture ofrubbish, slanging and tration to the point of exasperation, a sure road to theknacker's yard yonce in a while do we get real gems among the co ntrib utio ns. OnJan 12, Wm,B righton, m akes a useful contribution but ends by ask in g fo ur q ue stio ns,all of which Ican answer. But it w ould have been better if HE had done so for thebenefit of the uninitiated. If he and others will come clean, I myself am prepared tooffer proven winning ideas. Between us we can really set this page alight. After all,none ofus knows the lot, but with a combination of knowledge we can really go places.

heil of M arket

PEACH-NOTE: First of all, Win of Brighton's reference in parenthesis '(sorryMethodmaker)', refers to the fact that Methodmaker usually advocated keeping aneye on the shorter-priced horses in the betting market. The abbreviation S.C.H.B.stands for Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book. The four questions VDW refersto, are the four at the bottom of Win's article. VDW never answered the fourquestions directly, but of course, he proceeded to instruct us how to go aboutanswering all four ourselves. END NOTEHOTFO ofsam e edition as the ........a th ampste ad , h ad also noted W in of Brighton's letter and in theW epistle he had a letter printed entitled:'Form Cycle Worth Ride', writing that no one would argue with Win's claim that'c lass and fOl1D cycle are what racin g is all about', but that they were also complexp aramete rs re qu irin g ex pert k nowle dg e.

How right Hotform was, but while he continued to send in controversial letters it wasVan der eil who really [)II)set th e p ag e alig ht.And he was O b v i O U S l Y spurred on by a letter that appeared on Feb 16 sent in b YO.Hall Of Lincoln, WhO wrote: It m sure C van der eil (2-2-78) VOiced the thoughtsOf many. It was also refreshing to note he did not hide behind a Iudic rious p seudonym ,'The Flying Dutchman' for instance. I get th e feeling this Chap COUld prove in te re stingand helpful especially to novices like myself. Therefore Iurge him not to wait for

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som eone else to set the ball rolling, but instead toss the first spark into the grate in anattempt to start the fire which will 'set this page alight' .However, Methodmaker appea l'S on the scene before W gets going, with thefollowing, which was printed Feb 23 and w ritten by the w ell-resp ected A lan Gregory:'In Searching For AS ng Plan . . .'Gregory wrote: Individual requests for a good staking plan to fi t respective sets ofselections is an aspect of betting which I fin d most d iffic ult to satisfy - for re ad ers sen din details of results, g en era lly re late d to only a short period of active partic ip atio n, a ndexpecting that the sam e pattern w ill recur, seek advice on how to enhance profits usingvarying stakes.Successful staking plans depend on an unchanging pattern of returns - in other wordshow the winners and losers fall - and this is the real problem .On March 2 A .Chambers of Kent, decided to h ave a go at W under the hea g:'If You Pass Hat Round, Throw In Si lver Yoursel f'Chambers wrote:' C.Van der eil is talking rubbish with his one-sided idea ofsetting Forum page alight' and later on added 'The normal procedure when passing th ehat round for a collection is that you throw in some silver yourself ... just to encourageothers and get a good re ' .A month later this article from W appeared in the Handicap Book giving readersa taste o f what was in store for them:Odd Man Out Hands InS taking P lanMETHODM R 23/2 /78 again turns to the subject of staking plans. It appeal-S heis plagued by requests from readers seeking advice on how to ENC CE PROFITSusing varying stakes. Perhaps I am the odd man out, but I view the question of stakingnot from the point of enhancing profits, but to SHOW a profit. Readers may beinterested in the method Ihave used for over 40 years which basically aims to ensure

one point profit from each bet. Since the introduction of Betting Tax Ihave alwaysstaked 'tax paid on' but those who prefer not to do so can easily keep accounts asunder, without allowing for tax.Bet Pts Res Won Lost Debit CrNo. Stkd1 1 Lost - - ~ - - . _ 1 (+1)+1 Tax 32 2 Lost - -~-- 2(+1) 63 3 Lost - - - - - - 3(+1) 104 4 won 2-1 8(-1) -~--- 35 4 Lost - - - - - - 4(+ 1)+ 1 T ax 96 5 Lost ----- 5(+1) 157 6 won 3_1 18(-1) ----~ 0

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Stakes are increased by one point each bet until debit is reduced to zero. However,note that stakes should not exceed debit by m ore than one point. Bet No 5 - add onepoint to sta ke s lost and enter in debit co lumn. (The poin t ad ded is th e p ro fit wanted).Further losses are treated the sam e and added to previous de fic it. An extra point isadded to the t loss to account for tax and her additions m ade when the point hasbeen used up. A winning bet has one point deducted (profit required). T he resultant:6 . e is ded ucted from d eb it column. en debit reaches zero, subtract L oss from W inand enter profit in credit column. In this illu stra tion, p ro fit is n in e points. Level stakeswou ld hav e resulted in a loss of over 2 1 t 2 points tax paid on.The sequ en ce u sed is h yp oth etical and design ed to illu strate p rocedu re, but Ihaveused a poor w in average and m odest prices to show ,Iope, the m erit of th e p lan.

Then V an der eil really started to fan th e flam es. T he followin g mon th on April 6,h e replie d to G .Ha ll's le tte r in th e fo llow in g terms und er th e h ea din g:Narrow The Field T o G ain W inning StripInresponse to G.Hall (16-2-78) perhaps the follow ing w ill provide food for thought.It is not a sy stem , b ut one of m any w ays to narrow the field and at the sam e tim e putthe odds in your favour. I suggest that two factors can be coupled together to leavethree horses for consideration.F irst, consistent horses w in a h igh percentage of races. S econd, the first five in th eb ettin g fo recast in non-handicaps and the first six in handicaps, produce a highp erc en tag e o f w in ne rs. If we add the last three placin gs of th e resp ectiv e ho rses in theb ettin g fo re ca st to ge th er, we have a nwnerical p ic tu re . This can be very illuminatingand show , subject to other considerations, the good betting propositions. A highpercentage of winners come from the three lowest figure s. Leaving out sellers andnov ic e handic ap s it often traps the w inner in all races on the card.As Iwrite the only race in my paper which was 'on' - the E rin Foods C ham pionHurdle at Leopardstown broke down as under - * is used to indicate th e threeprobables.Decen t Fellow 7Beacon Light 3*Monks:6.eld 16P 5*ominent g .MrKi I ..........

K ild are h ad only tw o placings so the last placing was added on.USing two methods O f rating all fiv e hors es , I found that the three s ta rre d hors escam e out best. B Oth m ethods show ed B eacon Light w ell out O f it and hiS last race hadbeen a hard one against sea P ig eon so I was le ft Wi th p rom inen t King and M r Kil e.

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Prominent King had the edge by one m ethod and w as level using the other. Checkingthe form , Prom inent King was coming out of handicap com pany w here he shouldered am assive 12-7 last tim e out going under by five lengths to Drum gora also in this race on17lh worse term s,Mr Kildare, an odds-on winner last time out not against much opposition, was set tocarry 5Ib more. Prom inent K ing coming out of handicap company with 151b less tocarry and on the same course looked a good proposition. It duly ob lig ed at 6-1, MrKildare following him hom e at 5-1.W ith a sensible staking plan, the method works well for me. But remember, you donot to have a bet, but when you do, load the odds inyou r favour. In conclusion,may Iay to G .Hall that w e are all novices, it is just that some have been so for longer.

C Van der e il, Market Harborough.

As a matter of interest, G .Hall, of Lincoln, took A.Chambers to task in the April 6edition viz:O nly K now s One Man 0Can Walk On Water SEE 6He stated: 'To the best of my knowledge there has only been one man who couldwalk on water and his name certa in ly was not A .Chamber s. His im plication that thispage belongs to him and those hold ing the same view is sheer a rrogance.'A number of other punters wrote in support of W . For example Forensis Strepitusof Heme Bay and Lady Backer of Greenhill, two consistent letter-w riters to SportsForum, who had gained a reputation for constructive argument, both backed theDutchman. Both letters w ere printed April 13, 1978.'Dutchman' Challenge

In a generalised sense, fonn fi es can be misleading, for they can indicateimpro vin g or declinin g form, so her data is required to support fonn fi es, such aswhether the last outing was RECENT form , race distance, state of going, speed fiand the num ber of runners, etc. - Forensis Strepitus, Heme Bay.FIRST FIVE FAVO-

Referring back to the idea of the first five in the betting forecast, a letter appearedsometime back in Forum giving the results of three separate papers. The number ofraces involved is the same - 486 for each paper.paper A : 386 W inners were in the first five.paper B: 388 W inners w ere in the first five.paper C: 386 W inners were in the first five. - Lady Backer Of Greenhill.But our ow n system s analyst M ethodm aker, took a m ore cautious View.

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B etting Forecasts N arrow T he FieldIN a recent contribution to Sports Forum , reader C. Van der eil put up aproposition which he claimed would narrow the field and at the same time put the oddsin favour of the backer. He also said that the first six in the betting forecast produce ahigh percentage of w inners, 'and if we add the last three placings of th e re spec tiv ehorses in the forecast together we have a n umerical p icture.'Iertainly agree w ith this contributor's contention that the first five or six horses inthe betting forecast, between them , produce a high percentage of w inners. Indeed, Ihave proof that:1 - First and second quotations return som e 50 per cent w inners.2 - Third, fourth and fifth quotations 33 p er cent w inn ers.3 - A ll other quotations 17 per cent w inners.The above percentages covered a wide area of different forecasts and can be taken asthe result of an acceptable survey.hat I am not so sure about is the way C. Van der eil so readily accepts previousform fi es at their face value. He appears to do this w ithout question and in thiscontext he may be skating on very thin ice.

On occasions, the w inner apart, such placings can be virtually meaningless.L ogically, to assess their true value all m inor placings should be the subject of closescrutiny. I am sure that 'C. Van der W' w ith his undoubted know -how w ill appreciateth e poin t.As regards the introduction of our friend's approach of betting forecast quotations, itis good to see that nowadays different newspapers tend to present much th e sameanticipato ry od ds. This greater unanim ity serves a good purpose in the sense that itstabilises the position for the m any keen users of betting forecasts.Of course, forecast quotations can never be m ore than a guide as to how the betting

on the course m ay go. Inevitably, actual SP returns will tend to differ, but by and large,betting forecasts w ill continue to serve as potentially sound sources of information,That article was printed on April 20, 1978 and it took VDW another five weeks toreply. s he did in no small manner in the June 1 issue as reprinted below:

Numbers Game To Form A PictureTHODM R comments on m y contribution w ith the suggestion that I appearto accept previous form figures W ithout question and in this context m ay be Skating onvery thin ice. H e om itted to m ention that I stated, W i th regards to t h e nUmeriCal Picture:'ThiS can be very illum inating and S h O W , S JECT TO OTHER CONSIDE TIONS,the good betting propositions.' Presum ably if someone O f Methodm aker's calibre hasm iSinterpreted my suggestion there Will be many readers WhOh ave failed to grasp theintent.

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Itated that consistent horses w in a high percentage of races and now present a fewform- fi es from my ow n extensive surveys. D isregarding A LL factors other than thela st th re e p lac in gs , my figure s show percen tage wins next time:111 33% , 121 32% ,221 31% ,321 29% , 132 26% ,313 24% ,213 25% , 214 24% , 2048%, 302 8% , 404 5% , 000 2% .Using M ethodmaker's figures, which I accept, the first five produce 83% winners.My own combined figures from the three most consistent produce - 3-3-3 99% , 3-3-498% , 3-4-5 96%, 4-4-4 95%, 4-5-6 90%, 5-6-12 73%, 16-18-30 17%. Ialso stated inm y contribution that all relevant horses w ere rated by two d if fe rent methods .April 21 at Sandown, the day following Methodmaker's conunents, there was onoutstanding bet by my calculations, C eltic Pleasure w on 712 . It is interesting that on thesame card Little Nugget scored and I leave it to readers to ponder without hercomment other than to say it did not feature in the first six in my paper, in fact it was

not mentioned. The following day Satu rd ay , April 22, produced two more good things(b y my calcula tions ) Ba ttlemen t won 9/2 at Thirsk, and Strombolus won 7/1 in th eitbread G old C up at Sandow n.Again it is interesting that Strombolus did not feature in the first six in my daily, or ina well k nown spo rtin g daily. To th e credit of the Spo rting Ch ronic le it d id fe atu re . Afurther point I feel worthy of mention is that both first and second in this race had atotal of three from last three placings. The previous Saturday, April 15 producedthree outstanding bets, again by my calculations. Rifle Brigade won 5/2 (Beverley),Orchestra won 6/1, Derrylin won 4 /1 (Newbury). In the latter's race note W eth Nansecond, and in O rchestra's race Welsh Dancer second. R eaders m ay also like to ponderover th e S co ttish National on th e same day.Since the opening of the Flat I have placed 32 bets of which 29 won. No wonder Ism ile when a self-appointed 'old 'un' of 50 years' experience topples himself fromhis pedestal by stating he finds it even more difficult to show a profit now tax hasbeen increased to 9% . Iccept M ethodm aker's connnents and concede the ice breakssometimes, but assure him that on the whole it is m uch thicker than it may appe ar.

PEACH-NOTE:Summing up, it is interesting to note that in his final letter of1978, VOW reminds Methodmaker that the 'numerical picture' was 'SUBJECT TOOTHER CONSIDERATIONS, a phrase he continually repeats in later literature. Andperhaps I ought to bring readers attention to the fact that Methodmaker's 83%success is referring to the first five in the betting, while VOW's 99% was throughform-figure consistency. And finally, I have looked through the previous form ofmany of his selections mentioned in the above and found that in nearly everycase, the horse showed at the 1f or 2f marker, or had won qUite a respectableamount Of prize-mOney in a partlcular race. A number Of hiS selections atse hadthe beating Of the others in the form bOOk on Weight alone, and thiS highlightedthe fact extremelY true tOday - that there are many 'false favourites'. END NOTE

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ONCE again it w as G .H all of Lincoln w ho set the ball rolling w ith his letter on Jan 11............time he had this to say:'Constant Stream Of W inners ... '

Towards the end of last N .H . season reader C .Van der eil gave us his system . Ib urn t consid era ble m idnig ht oil checking through past results and concluded that herewa s someth in g to get m y teeth into.M y first bet w as the L incoln w inner, but then things started to go w rong. Fortunately,

C .Van der eil elaborated follow ing comments by M ethodmaker and after burningmore m id nig ht oil, Ipotted the 'key ' which was plainly there to see. Iollow ed thesystem throughout the rest of the seaso n and h av e fin ish ed th e p erio d w ith a tid y b ank,even after taking out the cost of a fam ily holiday to sunny M alta.A system that can give the spring and autumn double, with a constant stream ofw inners in betw een, can 't be any fluke and Iook forw ard to next Flat season. M y bestday produced a nice Y4 ee, with B uckskin (2-1), Sw iss M aid (5-1), M y T herape (5-1)an d C ambridg esh ire w in ner B aro net (12 -1 ).In tending m y thanks and appreciation to C.Van der eil, can Ipersuade him tofurther elaborate upon his system for use over the sticks. The 'key' does not seem toproduce as many bets. A lso, I wou ld appreciate en lig htenment reg ard in g pro ced ureswhen placings include F (fell), R (refused), P (pulled up), U (unseated rider), etc. -G.Hall , L inco ln .

PEACH-NOTE: This letter produced a flood of requests for more letters fromVan der Wheil and by then I was in the process of trying to persuade a verymodest-mannered VDW that his articles were so well read and sought after, thatthe Handicap Book wanted to print more from him. 'What do you want me to talkabout in racing?, asked VDW. 'Virtually anything, I I replied.Even at that stage I think most readers realised that VOW was holdingsomething back. As he recently told me, 15 years after first appearing like a magicgenie on the Sports Forum page: 'You do not tell everyone everything"And while VDW gave umpteen examples in the following years of how hesought out the winners, he always kept harking back to what he called his logicalfOlvmula: Consistent Form + Ability + Capability + Probability + Hard Work =Winners. It is an intriguing formula as readers will come to realise as they perusehiS letters for he keeps repeating and transcribing it for all to see.van der Wheil rePlied to G.H8111sletter on MarCh 81 but like a gOOd newspaperman, Ihad carried a VOW speCial in sports Forum on Feb 22 entitled 'Return Ofthe FlYing DutChman, WhiCh detailed most O f the correspondence relating to theDutChman,s methOd In 1978, but for ObViOUS reason see no need to publish thiSpage again. END NOTE

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..-.-W' S next w rote a letter for publication on M arch 8, as below:......-,S SPOTTED METHOD'S KEY

IN REPLY to G .Hall (11-1-79) can I first say that it was a m ethod not a system, apoint as I recall that was s tre ss ed . However, I cong ra tu late h im on 'spotting the key' ashe describes it. The four bets mentioned were in fact 'good things' on the day inquestion.In my view temperament is an im portant factor in deciding the w inning and losingpunters and in this respect Ifeel some concern regarding our friend's apparentim patience at fewer bets during the N .H . season and his I - - g for fancy bets.T he m ethod I gave produces 85% to 90% winners Flat and jumps, year in year out. Iknow that during the N .H . season there can be long waits just as we have had untilJanuary 20. The only 'good thing' Love From Verona won 12/1. There are of course,

days during the Flat when nothing can be found and there is no point in trying to findw hat is not there.Our friend has enjoyed a profitable season and Iask that he think hard about thefactor of temperament and refrain from throw ing away the advantage so far gained inthe sure knowledge that there is plenty m ore to com e from the sam e source.Regarding form placings P, F, U etc., it is a matter of commonsense really. A horsecan be pulled up for a number of reasons and an effort should be made to determme thecause. If it be found that when being pulled up, 'going conditions' were the cause, thereis no problem , but if it was a question of fitness, then it is a different kettle of fish. Thesame goes for fallers, a slip on landing is not the same as a crashing fall after goingthrough the top of the fence. M any times I t ve seen horses have a slight m ishap withoutactually falling, resulting in the jockey parting com pany, but the form has shown F(fell) w hen next running. In the m ain Iuggest calculating backw ards, but take note asabove.As an exam ple, D ecem ber 29, N ew bury, 2.0.W eyhill H andicap C hase. The three principles are m arked

811-13 Mafia K ing 5*136L 1 4- Beige Prince 15 *LP I-FPP Endurance Trust -1/22LIL- Queens College 21P4P12-F U ther Pendragon 7* Won 11/2514002- St Cadwaldr 22If our friend insists upon more bets he may care to note the two shortest pricedforecast favourites at the two main meetings and check their merit using the sameCriteria as in the other method, Again, he Will achieve a high win ratio, but alas, thePrices Will be Shor t a lthough profitable if use is m ade Of the s ng Plan I alSO gave.Again Ja nu ary 2o, Of the tw o horses only one qualifies, Gaffer won 3/1.

C. van der eil, M arket Harborough.17


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PEACH-NOTE: VOW declares his method gives 85 to 90% winners Flat and N.H.but he was not happy with punters who wanted 'fancy bets' such as doubles andtrebles, although he does touch on the subject in a later article. And again, thisletter is the first at hinting about sticking to his 'logical formula'. Note he writes 'ifour friend insists upon more bets'.But first of all he points out that it is a method not a system that he gives. Amethod is an arrangement, but at as far as VOW is concerned it is always 'subjectto other considerations'. A system is bound by much stricter rules - certainly anarrangement of ideas, but subject to much more severe uniformity.VOW also emphasises the point about temperament, 'I feel some concern aboutregarding our friend's apparent impatience'. Adding 'there is no point in trying tofind what is not there' and finally asking G.Hall to 'think hard about the factor oftemperament' .Readers should take notice of the fact that VDW highlights how he used theform figure combinations when they contained F (fell), etc and should note 'L'stands for last place. END NOTEThe following week, March 15, J.P .Ho llis, wrote that it w as:As Easy As A and B ... See!

T NKS to C .Van der wheil and G .Hall Ihave som ething to do in my spare tim e,i.e., find the key to their seem ingly successful system . But I would like to put m y cardson the table as regards to a plan Iave found useful at the beginning of the F lat.Concerning m yself w ith races up to a m ile, Iim ply inspect the runners' m ost recentrace, find out their w eight, d istance behind the w inner, unless they have won an d th eir

'a ' or 'b' tim e. I also note the going allowance, then using the form ula 1 length O .2secs 3Ib, I w ork out their accum ulated tim e, i.e., if the horse is carrying 31b m ore IaddO.2sec on to their tim e and if it was beaten two lengths, I add O .4sec on to th eir tim e.H aving the adjusted tim e for all the runners, I then proceed with my next stage.Iee if the horse w ith the fastest tim e has the biggest going allow ance, if so, I back it.The reason for this is that at the beginning of the season when the ground is usually softit seem s logical to assum e that the horse w ith the fastest tim e, w ith the biggestgoing allowance, w ith conditions soft going, but m ight work in fast going includedCap tain 's W ing s, Crystal Miss, Coded Scrap, Pipedream er, W o odsom e. In fact Ihad 10

con se cu tiv e w inne rs.O f course, th is w ould only be logical in soft going, but m ight w ork in fast going, ifyou take th e fastest horse w ith the fastest going a l1owance. Just to clear one thing up,when I take the horse's 'at or 'b' time from their m ost recent run, the tim es Iake arew ith go in g allow an ce tak en into co nsid eratio n.Iwould welcome any comments from anyone on the above system , as Ihave on 1)'put it into operation at the beginning of the season and stop using it when it selects t-\\TO

consecutive losers, i.e., When the going changes to good or firm . perhaps someoneCOUld enlighten m e on W hat to do on good going. - J. P. Hollis , B r igh ton .PEACH_NOTE: For those readers WhO are not familiar With the time scene, KenHussey, SPlit second for nearlY 50 yearsf tellS me that in the Old days 'a' and 'b'were used to denote that a horse had either registered a time (a), above and18


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slower than standard time for the race or (b), below and faster than standard. Thesystem now is to show slower times in seconds in parentheses and faster timeswith the prefix U - denotes under - and seconds in parentheses, and it is fromthis time allied to the going allowance that the Speed Figures (SF) shown inRaeeform's Form Book are calculated. According to Ken Hussey, what J.P.Hollisappears to be getting at is that a horse who wins in the soft going with its bigggergoing allowance, might also win in good going. However, Ken seems to think thatthis theory does not work out the other way round, and it is not often than horseswho win on firm going will act well on soft going. For information, his goingallowances were: Under NIL Firm; Nil 0.40 Good; 0.40 - O.75 Yielding; 0.80 -1.3 Soft; and above that Heavy. The lists of the standard times for all theracecourses are carried in various Raeeform publications and occasionally inRaceform Update. END NOTE

Another letter m entioning the 'K EY ' , this tim e from A .D uncan of Leeds, publishedon A pril 5 under the heading:Grateful

AS a comparativ e newcomer in relatio n to many Spo rts F orum contrib uto rs, Iwouldlike to offer grateful th s to D .R .M artin (3-3-79) for his contribution how to treat theL incoln for w inner finding.I follow ed his sim ple rules and found the first, second and d. W e all know whatthe SP was in each case, but with these horses what a start to the flat. at if th eplacings had been re ve rsed and they could h av e e as ily been so.On the contributions sent by Mr Van der e il, th is gentlem an really m ust know

his stuff, although his contributions have been many, alas, I cannot find the KEY. -A.IJunean, Leeds.Van der eil replied to both J.P.Hollis and A .D uncan in his letter: DutchmanStates: 'N o M agic Formula' on May 24. A third reader F.Chester of St A lbans w as alsom entioned, and his let ter writ ten on A pril 19 is appended below :PAYS TO PLAY PERCEN TAGES

LAYING it on the line, I think the key to Mr Van der eil's m ethod of preliminaryevaluation lies in his own percentage s. They support his device of adding together thefigures for the last three placings and at the same time provide a means to eliminate agreat m any races. T hey direct attention to the races o ffer ing the most e xp osed form.Having found a race worth attention on this basis you then need to apply suitabletests to the five or six leading horses in the forecast. P ersonally, I would apply tests ofspeed and recentness of form . Mr Van der eil's unspecified methods must surely bein th ose areas.If no clear choice emerges from m ethodical study, one of tw o things should becom e

Plain, the competition is to o keen to justify a bet or th e Winner must be looked fo ramong th e o utsid ers,M r van der e il's b ettin g forecast device help s concentr ate attention. With thathelP I backed Alverton for the GOld CUP . at I added in personal method can besummed UP as fOllOWS.

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A lverton and Ni t Nurse had the most recent g ood form, A lverton, how ever, hadwon on the course and was considered to have the stamina to ju stify en try in th e GrandN ational. - F. Chester, 8t Albans.W' s nex t con tr ibution was on May 3 when he discussed the subject of making alist of horses.

LOOK BEFORE YOU LEAP INCONSIDE LE interest is apparently show n regarding lists of horses to follow.M ethodm aker has often given advice in his colum n and th e idea has a great deal tocommend it. The first problem is how to select the right horses and readers m ay care tocheck the follow ing before diving in at the deep end.The price when a w in comes along needs to be re as on ab le and to go a long waytow ards achieving this I suggest restricting selections to good handicappers. N ote those

which had tw o form placings in their last two outings in th e p rev io us seaso n with onew in i.e., 21, 31, 12, 13, etc., and also at least tw o wins over th e p erio d. If they runinto a place, preferably second, first tim e out, check their previous best perform ance.Any reliable method w ill do although many will find Split Seconds' fi es moreconvenient. T he im portant thing is to establish proven ability and here a previous speedfi e of 80 plus, should give a reasonable base. N ow check the running in the presentrace and judge prospects for the future.B ecause I usually take an extended holiday in spring or early swnmer I do not make

a list for th e Flat.In my view it is a mistake to select a w hole string of horses w hen half-a-dozenc are fu lly se le cte d animals will do the trick. A recent contributor pointed out that asm all fortune had been m ade follow ing one horse and it is an aspect that readers couldconsider with p ro fit. If your points are 5 or 10 you do not expect to m ake a fortune fromhalf-a-dozen horses and the sam e goes for a hundred at 25p.Ielected six for the National H unt season which re ed many tim es the nationalaverage annual w age. Needless to say, when a w in has resulted the horse is deleted. As

a precaution, readers m ay care to consider follow ing selected anim als in pairs, groupingthem in such a way that the possibility of them both running in the same race isavoided.In conclusion, I expect those who adopted the m ethod I gave previously had a goodstart to th e Flat w ith Fair Season in the Lincoln.

c.Van der eil, Marke t Ha rbo roughPEACH-NOTE: once again VDW Places emphasts on not trying to de theimpOSSible. 'In my View it is a mistake to select a WhOle string Of horses Whenhalf.a-dozen carefUllY selected animalS Will dO the trick'.And a nice liHle tlp that I have not seen before. about grOUPing the list Of horsesIn pairs, so that the 'POSSibility Of them both running in the same race is avoided'.END NOTE20


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In th is letter on May 24, W answers J. P. H ollis, A . D uncan and F. Chester:2 t) Dutchman states: 'No magic fo rmu la 'LAST year, in response to a challenge, I subm itted w hat to my mind is a veryelem entary m ethod of finding w inners w ith the remark that it may provide food forthough t. Apparen tly it did and although Ieel enough was outlined for readers to graspthe idea it is obvious that m any have failed to do so. Possibly because one contributorintroduced w hat he called the 'Key' readers have sought what is not there in the formof som e m agic form ula (A reference to O .H all, SEE 15).If it w ill assist J.P .H ollis, A .D uncan and F.C hester, the latter has by the w ay, gone along way towards the ultim ate conclusion, may Iuggest they first look to the prizemoney and e of race. Good consistent horses are not to be found in a 500 seller butthey are in a 5,000 handicap. Saturday, April 14 provided only five races from allcards w orth consideration, K em pton 2.00, 2.30, 3.05, N ew castle 2.30 and Tow cester

2.15. If they care to read again my first letter and apply the principles, they w ill findfive w inners, Proven, M an of V ision, Sofronoff, B aptism and M itchelstow n, It does notfo llow th at a good thing alw ays show s from the p re lim in ary mech an ic al p ro ce du re ; th iscan only be determ ined from a close study of F orm and associated aspects. However,the mechanical part does isolate a narrow area that consistently produces w inners.Som ething for nothing is a m yth, a great deal of hard w ork has to go in also. If you careto put the method ino a logical form ula it is quite sim ple. Constant F onn + A bility +Capability + Probability + Hard W ork W inners.T herefore, first look for good class stakes and handicaps. A t present values and theseare constantly changing, a novice chase or hurdle w ith prize money 3,000 upwardsw ill attract horses w orth looking at, but elsew here values are different. On the Flatcaution is needed in the early part of the season, especially in races confined tothree-year-olds, w hen som e of the field did not Illn as tw o-year-olds. B etter to confinein terest to races for all aged horses until a full understanding has been gained.Ratmgs are also part of a mechanical procedure and should be regarded as a guideand not the be-all and end-all. A to p-ra te d hors e on a t ime basis is not m uch good ifForm does not support it. A lso ask the question, which is the better perfom lance?, a

winner at Redear with a figure of 86 or a fourth at Epsom beaten three lengths insim ilar conditions w ith a figure of 79.If readers care to check, recent good things have included Pragm atic, Inside Q uarter,Lync Dance only just beaten last year by One in a M illion and also a good thing but notat the price. Ela-Mana-Mou, Drum 1erry, Q uickapenny, H aw aiin Sound, V aigly Greatand not fo rg ettin g Lyp hard 's W i sh .It has been ex pressed in these pages that many punters look for too many bets and IWIll repeat som ething I myself q uo ted , temp erament p lay s a big Part in sorting out th eW inn ers an d lo sers. YOU don't HAVE to bet but U Sing thiS elemen method y ou r fieldOf vision W ill be re str ic ted to a narrow area full Of potential and if YOU fail to achieve aminimum Of 80% su ccess ev alu ate y ou r rea din g Of F orm . There are m any other w ays Ofdoing the sam e thing and also they can be used to confirm findings from this m ethod, Ifre ad ers a re in te re ste d, IWill be glad to subm it to these pages for discussion,

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In conclusion m ay Irefer to a point in F.Chester's letter. Iquote 'if no clearchoice em erges from methodical study, one of two things should become plain, thecompetition is too keen to justify a bet or the w inner must be looked for am ong theou tsiders' . M ay Iu ggest his first alternative is th e one to adopt ( temperament) .C.Van der eil, Marke t Harborough.

PEACH-NOTE: VDW tells readers that they are seeking something that is notthere, 'a magic formula' so to speak. Then VDW goes on to tell three particularreaders that they should read his first letter and 'apply the principles' . Butperhaps even more important he reiterates the pOint that the 'mechanical part' willnot always show up the 'good thing', although it isolates the consistent winners.ENDNOTET. A . Swann of Essex thoughtJune 7, 1979: ~W was 'A Man of Letters' and wrote this on

WITH reference to the letters from M r C.Van d er eil, I think they are probably themost importa nt Iave read in th e 18 years Iave been a reader of Sports F orum ,They are important because they are from a gentleman who is obviously anin te llig en t and successful punter, who calm ly states that the m ethod he is giving detailsof, gives an 85% -plus success rate. H e then gives the nam es of a num ber of horses andstates that he rates the horses by tw o m ethods to arrive at his selections.Iwas fairly confident that by burning the m idnight oil Iwould discover the m ethodsof rating the horses that M r Van der eil used, to arrive at his combined fi es.But I have to confess to failure to do so and I suspect that m ost other readers havefailed to do so. Iave found good reasons to back the horses h e mentions. Iave triedto rate the horses in each of their previous three races as Issumed this was what wasrequired to arrive at the three numbers in the combined figures given by Mr C Van derheil (Refers to 'Narrow The Field To Gain Winning Strip' 6-4-78). But I know I amoff course w hen considering the race involving Prominent King, Beacon Light and MrKildare.Mr Van der eil says, that both his methods of rating the horses show BeaconLight well out of it. Ian no t see how. Iave w ished at times that M r G.Hall had notsaid inhis letter that the key w as plainly there to see.I cannot find it, so I feel like a right dununy. Im sure that it is the intention of Mr C.Van der eil to h elp read ers of 'Forum' and I hope that he may decide to be morespecific and tell us all how exactly he uses his m etho d to fin d the good things that hem entions. Judging from his letter of 3/5/79 (Look B efore Y ou Leap In), he assum es thatwe all have fi ed it out and are now reaping th e rew ards he intended us to.I haven't seen any other letters th ng Mr C Van de eil, so I guess I'm not theonly one who can't spot the key. Let us hope that he does explain the details in the near

future, and if he doesn't let us hope that he keeps writing to 'Forum " because thisgentlem an is unique,HOW I W Ould love to listen to him for a C O U P l e Of hOurs, I W O U l d learn more aboutbeing a successful backer in two hours than Ih av e learn ed in the past 20 years andprobably th e next 20. I have tried so hard to apply logic to finding the key that at tim es

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Iave felt that m y brain w as overheating. If any of y ou h av e disco vered the key andhaven't th ed him, do so now, as no one else is going to give you an g as goodas 85% plus success in selecting horses.If you stick to the staking system Mr Van der eil recommends (Odd Man OutHands In S tak in g P la n 23/3 /78) , your losing days are over. - T .A .Sw ann, E ssex.On the sam e page there was also a letter from G.Hindle of Manchester:

22 SPEED&FO FIGURES BESTA LOT has been said in these pages about speed-fi es and their use in evaluating ahors e's potentia l. Mr D .TUI1 1er,for instan ce, asks fo r a po ints differen ce betw een A scotand W arw ick and while I path ise w ith this, in my opin io n it is almos t impossib le toassess the difference w ithout the aid of a compute r. The calculation of a speed fi e isnot a horse's form fi e and as such should not be used so.Speed-fi es are an assessment of a single performance and form figures are theoverall merit of the horse, and tim es do not necessarily reflect this. For in stance, o nemust look at the wind speed and direction, weather, jockeyship, draw and immaturityand improvement, when looking at speed fi es. The last factor for me is veryimportant and needs careful exam ination by the form expert. A 2-year-old recor g aspeed fi e of 100 in May will only be capable of recor g a sim ilar fi e inSeptember if the horse has m ade normal im prov ement d uring the y ear.The punter is obviously interested in, not one-off tim es, but an assessment of ahorse's true capabilities and this can be done by combining speed fi es with fonn. A

horse that records a speed fi e of 100 one week and 2 weeks later records 60, m usthave a reason. To find this out, one must delve into the fO lm book and assess thed ifferin g p ercu liarities th at h av e caused th is.Only by using the figures in connection with the actual race will one be able tofathom this out. My own way of do ing this is to record ea ch horse's timefig ure on aseparate card throughout the season and note the pecularities and you then have anassessment of the improvement, etc, of a horse. s however, cannot be done withoutth e form book.H orses, like hum ans are not m achines and a punter should treat them in this w ay. It isnot tim e versus form that will allow us to assess if a h orse winning a 5 furlong race atA scot is better than one at Warw ick, but the com bination of the tw o.

G.Hindle, Manches te r.PEACH NOTE: VDW comments on the letter from Mr Hindley - as he is mistakenlycalled In 'Lazy ManisWay ToWin' in his July epistle, but I thought readers mightlike some comment about speed figures from the maestro himself, Ken Hussey,now retired, but still kee Ping traC k Of tlmel ThiS IS Wha t he has to say:'11m not sure What speed f igUreS Mr Hindle was USing, because mine werebased PUre lY on time and a 50 in May WOUld have been a very gOOd figUre.However, Mr Hindle writes very gOOdcommonsense, although he does SPOil it alittle bY lumPing so many things together With regardS to speed figures horsesare not like trains and run on raiisl There are many imponderables, not least thediffering traCkS and gOings and a horse that ran UP to a 50 in May COUlddrop bY

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40 in yielding going In September. And of course, bad luck in running, ill-judgedjockeyship and the weather means that you cannot really compute time.'Then there is the problem of a horse being bodily overweight around May andthe trainer whittling off up to 2st on the home gallops. Nevertheless, the clock'sbest perfomances can find winners. A horses might run several times below itsbest for a variety of reasons, but there is every chance that in time itwill repeatthat feat. One has to remember that trainers do not run their horses for the public

and they might even have set out to win a certain race 12 months previously.What I have often found to be a good bet is keeping an eye on a horse that hasrecorded a fast time and then turned out within 10 days of doing so. Like the oldadage, these animals are fast, fit and fancied and on top of that, there is a fairchance that the going is likely to be the same.' Ken is now writing for the Racingand Football Outlook. Readers should bear in mind that Raceform Speed Figuresare now computerised. ENDNOTEAs you will read, W chanced to see Mr Swann's letter befo re setting o ff o verseason holiday, but prom ised to reply to him in full on his re , and as a man of his word

this he did. H ow ever, he popped in this letter in the July 5 edition of the HandicapBook:2. . . LAZY SWAYTOIT WAS by chance that I saw Mr A .Swan n's letter, h av in g purchased the June 7Sporting C hronicle H andicap B ook at a new sagent's stand for flight reading on m y w ayto Hong Kong. I will not be back in the United K ingdom until sometime in August as

my inten tio ns are to go from here - Singapore - to Bali, Honolulu and Los Angeles.H ow ever, I will reply in full to M r Swann on my re . M ay I suggest he takes aclose look at M r G .H indley's letter in the same issue. There are points w ith which I amat v arian ce, bu t these four and associated aspects a re sub je ct to interpretation.Inthe meantime, he and others m ay find interest in what Iwill call, for want of abetter term, the lazy man's way. Having selected three probables from each of tw o raceswhere S.P. should be reasonable, couple both for nine doubles and use a modifica tio n o fthe staking method Igave.To simplify calculations assume nine doubles plus tax requires an outlay of 10points. To gain a reasonable re on outlay, calculate fo r a three-poin t profit per bet asillustrated:

TOTALBET STK S RES W L DBT CR1 lpt 1Opts L 10+3 132 2pts 2Opts L . . 10+3 363 3pts 3Opts W3-1 W4-1 27(60-30-3) - 94 2pts 2Opts L - 20+3 325 3pts 3Opts W3-1 WS-l 39(72-30-3) . . 0--

6 6 50 prOfit 1624


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On August 23, 1979heading: W replied to Mr T.A . Swann's letter of June 7 under th e

24 SPEED IS NO USE W ITHOUT FOIN REPLY to Mr T.A .Swann, June 7, I must first suggest he is starting from th ewrong point. He states that he was con fid ent of discovering my methods of ratingwhich, I understand, he feels is the answ er to his problem . s is not so and I havepreviously suggested that although ratings have a value they are not the 'be-all andend-all' but should be treated as a guid e. I'm sure that if he understood a previous letter(Dutchman states: 'No m agic form ula' 24/5/79), which perhaps he had not seen beforew riting, the situation w ould have becom e clearer.A lthough the elem entary mechanical procedure can be used to effect on any race,I suggest that by concentrating on better-class races he will soon gain a fullund ersta nd in g. Rela tiv ely consistent horses can be found in any race, but 00

consistent horses are usually found only in better events. The value of any ratings m ustbe determ in ed from the basis used to com pile them and in this respect I suggest F ormmust playa m ajor role.Speed figures alone have little value if not supported by form, It is true, form is acomplex thing, and subject to interpretation, but there are m any aspects which giveclear indica tions . Mr Swann may care to give thought not to a race as a whole but to therespective horses' perform ances over the last tw o furlong in each of their three previousoutings. at a horse does, or does not do, at this stage w ill provide the answ ers.As one example, a horse that notic eably imp rove s to make a race of it at this stagew ithout w inning can be looked upon as a potential candidate in the n ear future and noteshould be m ade of how the trainer places it. Mr Swann states he had found good reasonto back the horses m entioned and Iuggest he exam ines this aspect in depth. With theobvious effort he has put in, this will give him the answers he seeks. The placing of aninvestm ent m ust be backed by solid reason and not by a com pulsion to gam ble.The Goodwood meeting produced a string of good things rounding off w ithConnaught Bridge and Philodantes on Saturday, Aug 4. The only other race of the dayto consider provided Soaf at N ewmarket.Another of the many ways to reduce the field, which can be used in conjunction withthe previous method I gave is as follows. The com bination of the two usually isolatesthe probables. A gain Iuggest the better class races, but illustrate using a scrubber toshow potentia l.A star has been used to indicate selection s at each stage. The previous m ethod I gaveisolates Secret Express, Easter Girl, The Old Fellow giving four out of the 16 withprobability. M ost readers w ill be aw are of the statistics regarding horses placed 1, 2, 3,4 last time out and here a variation is used for the first stage O f th e mechanicalprocedure.stage one. From the last tw o placings O f each horse, m ark all those With Form fig ure s1 to 4 (note as in the race illustrated none had a 2nd Place so mark those With a 5thPlace).

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Stage tw o. Select indays, the five m ost recent runs. In this case 3, 7, 9, 10, 11 days.Stage three. Select from the above the three m ost consistent by adding together thelast three placings of the respective horses. Reading through the Form , there can belittle doubt that The O ld Fellow represents a reasonable wager if you care to bet insc rubber ra ce s.N ewmarket, A ugust 2 . C obnut Selling H andicap 3-Y -O (16 runners).

StageTwo283*1109*687*6111*617*106410251819

Stagel'hree Ratings7662R14*58-0305*0-74*275*40-90-35*OLO044*093*08L781*084*064*6 60

StageOneTusconSec re t Expre sshatA TreasureE aster G irlLaid LadyMohock

Caro l S eymourHosts De lightS GroveG ame S heilaBaby FloBlue PaperThe Old FellowRoyal eritanceDese rt P rin ceTheMo

-7*18

32 8429 8435 8528 8929 8918 7540 91(40) (90) fo r in fo31 89

-14* 2nd 15-2-18-182216* W on 12-12220 3rd 16-1..

It is interesting to speculate by what criterion weight of money could force Royal~ eritance to a 5-2 favourite from a forecast of 10-1. Ratings alone? If readers care tosubject the next race on the card (won by Soat) to the same two methods the pointa ris es aga in . By what criterion could A nother Signcentre be not only forecast favouritebut actual 2-1 favourite. The combination of both methods isolates Soaf, Daikoku,Rubber Duck and Art Bidder. As will be noticed, th e first three places were filled fromth ese fo ur. c.Van der eil, M arket HarboroughPEACH-NOTE: As well as introducing two cross-checks VOW also introducesanother new feature, looking at what a horse does over the last two furlongsin its previous three outings. He states 'What a horse does, or does not do,at this stage will provide the answers'. And this, perhaps, is one of the mostrevealing paragraphs of the whole series, and I quote 'As one example, a horsethat noticeably improves to make a race of it at this stage without winning can belooked upon as a potential candidate in the near future and note should be madeof how the trainer places it'. END NOTE

L. J. Peverell, W em bley, penned this letter on sept 13:TOP JOCkey TiP

BEING a reader Of sports Forum, I am amazed at some Of the clap-trap that earns 5for readers. T he latest is the letter by the m uch-revered C .van der eil, W here he Cites26


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a 16-runner scrubbers' selling handicap to state his genius for w inner finding (Speed IsNo U se W ithout Form , Says 'D utchm an', A ug 23).Anybody w ith a grain of sense knows that almost any system can be appliedsuccessfully to one particular race. The whole point of betting is consistency, notiso la te d c ase s.Personally, Ieliminate all handicaps, sellers, ladies races, amateurs, apprentices,claimers and two-year-o lds . A must is a top-class jockey and I stick to Me rcer, Carson,Eddery, Starkey, Cauthen, and of course, the old maestro Piggott. If one of these is notbooked overnight forget the bet, no m atter how good it may app ear.You will, no doubt, m iss som e winners, but in the long run you will benefit. To mew inners are not so vital as avoiding losers. Losers bring a lack of confidence which inmy opinion is m ost im portant.Have patience, w ait, back level stakes alw ays and if you can no t mak e lev el stak espay be sensible and give up. - L .J.Peverell, Wembley.PEACH NOTE: L.J.Peverell has the wrong end of the stick when he attacks VDWfor citing a 'scrubbers' race, but VDW looks after himself in his opening article of1980 (March 13, Flying Dutchman Believes In Consistency) so I have no need todefend him. However, the writer does strike a chord with me when he says thatlosers bring a lack of confidence. In 'Racing In My System' I have devoted achapter on to how I think luck/confidence operate In racing. L.J.Peverell's letterwas also carried again for reference In the March 13,1980, issue of Sports ForumExtra. END NOTE

The final letter of the year cam e on Sept 6 from Ever O ptim istic of H astings.2 6 G ets It Together O n Form Fi ........THE purpose of this letter is firstly to say th you to C . Van der eil for hiscontributions to Sports Forum over the past few w eeks, and to say that on the strengthof his encouragem ent Ihave undertaken a certain am ount of research into the FOflDCombin atio n situ atio n, alb eit for a very short period (June 26 - July 28) 5 w eeks, theresult of w hich is mos t encou rag ing .B efo re re ad ers shout about the short period of research, J feel that many would beglad to hear of m y findings.The form combinations used are as follow s, 111, 112, 113, 114, 121, 131, 141, 211,

311, 411. And Iave to report that a level stake profit over 83 bets w ith tax paid whenplacing the bets of 25.53 or 28.2 per cent on capital used.This profit is improved on by taking certain combinations in certain es of races,for instance, during the period there have been eight bets w here the combination is 111in A ll-aged H andicaps only, these have produced 7 winne rs a t th e fo llow in g p ric es: 7-1,evens, 8-11, 1-3, 2-9, 6-4 , 7-4, the level stake profit being 10.80 tax being paid inadvance or a profit of 123 p er c en t.Other combinations in other es of races show encouraging profits while others ofcourse, are not so good. - E ver O ptim istic, H astings.PEACH-NOTE: VDW wrote about Ever Optimistic's findingS in hiS first artiCle Of1980 along With the rePlY to L. J. peverell. END NOTE

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THERE was a slight lull in th e W saga in 1980, neverth ele ss, th ere were threeletters that appeared at the start of th e New Year on Jan 17 mentioning W.They were from A .P arnell, w ho was suggesting a Grand National Sweepstakes.

27 IDEAIN these tim es of stringent financial circwnstances which are cutting our socialservices and resulting in people having to wait for life-support machines, Iam suremillions of re ar punters would prefer to have a state run pool w hereby everyonewould benefit.I th ink it is high-time we took a leaf out of Ireland's book - a country which has som eof the best hospitals in the world - and had a Grand National Sweepstakes of our own. -A .Parne ll, Wi rra l.F rom F .Che ste r of St A lbans, who was recommending a:Three InOne Plan Only For Brave.

ONE of the methods most likely to produce a profit over a season is to back threehorses in one race. s is recommended by Me th odmak er for su ch majo r h an dicap s asthe G rand N ational, the L incoln and the C ambridgeshire. In those races it is essential.I find it also works well in races that are m uch less of a lo tte ry . Races of 10 to 12runners are suitable, and even races w ith as few as six. The draw back is that tw o-thirdsof the stak e will always be lost. SoImake sure th e betting market is an open one in thechosen race.If you intend to rely upon a newspaper betting fo reca st rather than attend a race track

or betting shop, it generally means having to concentrate on high value races where thep rize mon ey is great enough to attract horses whose form normally is consistent.The choice of which th ree to back should com e, I believe, from personal judgement.I have no clo sed sy stem of rules, such as for example, nam ing the second, third andfourth horses from a newspaper betting forecas t. Fixed rules in my experience only leadto a fraction of th e success tha t rel iance on choice does.The greatest satisfaction com es from selections based on one's own study of f01-111,taking into accoun t the going on th e day and trainers and jockeys for courses. If

eve bing POints to th e probable favourite Winning, th e answer to that one is to baCkth e favourite only or lOOk for another race. But it is surprising - though one shouldnever be S rised - hOW often the ObViOUS choice does not W in. W itness N ight Nursewinning at 5_1 recently after a previous bad Iun. Only the brave or those W illing to beton more than one horse in a race WOUldhave been W illing to back Night Nurse thattim e, hence the value for money Price. - F. Chester, St A lbans.28


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R .Sm ith w axed satirical w ith:2 9 OtTers The se L oss-cu ttin g Me th od s!SINCE Forum seems to be lacking in genuine w inning ideas, may I offer thefo llowin g lo ss-cu ttin g me th od s.Firstly , on Thursday morning remove the 'pull-out returns' and 'Races To Come'sections and dispose of the rest of the book to a waste paper disposal finn for recycling.Secondly, continue to subm it rubbish to Sports Forum . Thirdly, send in the crossw ordpuzzle no staking plan required. Fo ly, save 10% of your weekly income andback 'Rough and Tumble' each-way for the 1980 Grand National at opening price. -R .Sm ith , Mo re cambe .~W answered all three letters in 'Let's Have A Lottery' on April 17, butmeanwhile penned his first article on March 13, 1980, obviously spurred on by mytelephone call and the need to get punters ng the right path before the Flat really got

going. The article appeared in one of my Sports Forum Extras in a ters' Pull-Outunder the follow ing heading:3()

THERE appears to be a large num ber of readers interested in the methods I haveou tlined ov er the past months. A lthough I have tried to present them in simple term s ah igh p roportion of readers seem u nab le to grasp the intent.L. J. Peverell, September 13, appears to have completely m isunderstood my last

letter in which I used a 16-runner selling handicap, not in the way he suggests, butmerely to illustrate th e me ch an ic s of the m eth od. There is no way to achieve 100%winners in horse rac in g, but there are num erous m ethods to search out th e favourableareas.Initially, Iubm itted a method based on two factors w ith which individuals mayorm ay not agree. First, cons is ten t horses win a high percentage of races and second, thefirst five or six in the betting forecast contain a high percentage of w inners.These two factors combined, narrow the field down to an area of prospective

winners, but they are not the only ones. It is good to see some readers have pushed theid ea a ro un d and devised other ways of using it.Ever Optim istic has selected 10 form combinations and he may care to know thepercentage w ins next tim e out from these to compare with prices in order to assist himin establishing the viability of the idea. Previous three FOI1D figures 111 produce 33% ,112 26% , 113 26% , 114 24% , 121 32% , 131 28% , 141 27% , 211 27% ,311 32% and411 27% .Ever Optim istic has also observed trends in particular es of races and here readers

may deduce W h Y Irefer better-Class events.Re ing to consistent horses, readers may care to add together th e last threeplacings Of each horse in every race dow n the card and review the findings, consideringtype Of race, etc. They may also care to do the sam e With the POSition in the bettingforecast O f each Winner.29


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Inmy last letter (August 23, 1979), I outlined a method that can be em ployed inconjunction with these two factors which in themselves do not by any means coverall desirable a sp ec ts . The combination of both methods does provide an area worthinvestigation.Metho dmak er h as pro du ced fi es w hich show the first five in the betting forecast inall races produce 83% winners and readers w ho have taken the trouble to investigatethe position regar g the m ost consistent horses in the w hole field, w ill note w hat anin terestin g fa cto r it is . Handicaps are said to be the g raveyard of p un ters, b ut Iee themas h appy h un tin g g ro un ds.A g reat d eal of emphasis app ea rs to be placed on m y m ethods of rating, but there isno mystery abo ut th em . Iave said, because so m uch im portance seem s to be placed onthem, that ra tin gs a re not th e 'be-all and end-all' but should be used as a guid e.If you compare two private handicaps for instance, they can differ to an alarming

degree. W ithout going into the reasons for this, I do not w ish to im ply that ratings haveno value, but I do subscribe to the view that they m ust be coupled w ith other aspects tohave aworthwhile mean ing.Those who provide ratings do a valuable service, but I believe none of them woulddisagree that they are compilers. This is in no way derogatory, because their fi es arethe result of com piling various data and Ib eliev e th ey th emselv es know how to usethem to advantage.Test any set of ratings yourself and you will find a certa in p ercen ta ge to p-ra tedwinners and indeed, it is wise not to stray from th e top five or six when selectingwagers. B ecause there is this variation between ratings Iprefer to use two sets whichare compiled on different lines. T his enables m e to judge the reliability of the figures inconjunction with the other factors. M y letter of Aug 23 deliberately illustrates thispoint.It does not have to be top -ra ted to be a sound wager, the combination of a ll fa cto rsand study of form does this. S tudy of the form and ratings can show a consistent horseto be out of its depths, as for instance Billbroker in the St Leger and equally Son of

Love was a good th in g in the same race.Readers w ho rely on ratings m ay deduce that by taking the top five or six rated andcoupling w ith the five or six most consistent horses in the field they w ill trap a lot ofwinners. Try it and you will find it in terestin g. In non -h andica ps may Iuggest s tickingto the top four rated.Ibelieve no useful purpose is served by readers subjecting other contributors toabuse, in fact it u ltima te ly re su lts in d eprivin g in terested parties from receivin g id eas.Racing is unique in that there are so many ways Of appro ach in g th e complexitiesinvolved and Forum is, and will be, only as good as YOU, th e readers, make it.c.van der eil, M arket Harborough.

PEACH_NOTE: VOW makes several pOints in the above leHer. For a start he putsL.J.peverell right, telling him, as he has alreadY tolds many other writers, that30


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what Mr Peverell Inferred was not what he(VD wrote. VDW goes on to mentionratings and it is worth reading once again, the paragraph starting 'Yest any set ofratings ....to illustrates this polnt', He goes on to repeat that ratings are only aguide and in this respect quotes his example from Aug 23, 1979, 'Speed Is NoUse Without Form, Says Dutchman' declaring that a horse does not have to betop-r_ted to be a sound wager, which is a reference to Royal Inheritance wherehe has put its ratings (40) and (90) in parenthesis. He also gives us anotherc;heck-point, looking at the top five or six rated, along with the the five or six mostconsistent horses. END NOTE

Two other letters appear on the same page as Van der eil's article 'F lyingDutcbman Believes In C onsistency '. O ne was from K .Sim pson, Staffs, and th e otherfrom J.P.Hollis, London, and both referred to past W articles. W does in fact,reply to them later in the year (29/5/80).K.Simpson's letter read: IHAVE been reading w ith great in terest letters from MrVan der eil, but could not understand th e figures 333 99% as quoted in his letter_~1 .

'I s ta te d th at consistent hors es w in a high percentage of races and now present a fewForm-figures from m y ow n extensive surveys, D isregarding A LL factors other than thelast three placings, m y figures show percentage w ins next tim e:111 33% , 121 32% ,221 31% ,321 29% , 132 25% ( W 's fi........ was actually 26% ),313 24%, 213 25% , 214 24% , 204 8% , 302 8% , 404 5% , 000 2% .Using Metho aker's figures, w hich I accept, the first five produce 83% w inners.My own com bined fi es from the three m ost consistent produce 333 99% , 334 98% ,345 96% , 444 95% , 456 90% , 5612 73% , 161830 17% . I also stated inmy contr ibu tionthat all relevant horses w ere rated by tw o different m ethods.' C ould you explain please- K.Simpson,Staifs .PEACH-NOTE: Before going any further, I must point out that the figures '5612and 161830' above, would be better understood as: 5-6-12 73%, 16-18-30 170/0.And perhaps to clarify the point even more, the figures VDW refers to as 333 99%are the last three placlngs i.e., 111,111,111and similarly 334 (111,111,121),345(111, 121, 221) and so on. Re~arding Methodmaker and his 'BeHing forecastsnarrow the field, April 20, 1978 it is a reference to the first five in the beHingforecast. END NOTE

J .P .Hol li s's let te r app ea red und er th e heading 'R AT INGS' .I WO D b e ex tremely g ra te fu l if you could publish this article as it would help mea great deal and Im sure would help other readers as w ell if som eone could answ er

my quenes. .I am writing on a tOPIC that I a m sure a lot of readers have t r o u b l e w ith , m yselfincluded, the subject is ratings. Mr C.Van der eil in one o f h is articles, m en tion edthat he had two methods of rating the horses that he was inspecting. He went her bysaying that he rated BEACON LIGHT well out Of it USing these ratings. I myself likeanother read er, w as a l S O PUZZledhOW van der eil managed to predict so accurately,I am not asking hOW this OCCUlTed because, O b V i O U S l Y , he doesn 't want to Part W i ththis ittfol111ation. The problem I have is that When there are good races I can short-listfive POSSibles, then by taking horses in the first SiX in th e betting get about threeprob3bles.

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From this I again have to judge which is the best in at the weights, but alas, althoughone of these three u sually w in s, Iin d th at Iick the wrong one.A ll I ant as g Mr C.Van d er eil, or anybody else, is could you give me a way ofratings th ese h orse s so that Iknow that it is a reliable guide to the horses' chances. Iwould b e e xtremely g ra tefu l if this could be done? - J.P.Hollis, London.Before an swerin g th ese two co rre sp onde nts, W penned an article on April 17, inresponse to earlier letters from F.Chester, A .Panlell and R.Sm ith. In betw een, theMarch 20 issue contained a letter from G.G.G., Edmonton, who suggested that adiscussion group w ould be a goo d idea:A DISCUSSION GROUP IDEAL

IT is very in teresting to read the various ideas and schemes subm itted to SportsForum by contributors, all of which Iear are indiv idua l e ffor ts . If punters were to getto ge th er, an d form discussion groups, they w ould find they tend to correct their faultsand m is es. I know this is the very reason for Sports Forum , but it does not work aswen a s d ire ct con ta ct.I belonged to a discussion group for 25 years Wltil 1975. I am now 'alas' th e onlyone left of th e original seven. In the beginning we met once, sometimes tw ice a weekwhen view s, ideas and exp erien ces both on and off the course were fully discussed,d ebated and analy sed. It is surprising how m uch one can learn and indeed change one'sviews, through listening to other points of view . I can safely say that each of us,~ ough th e group, made our racing not only m ore interesting, but more p ro fita ble .G,G.G.,E onton.P CH..NOTE: G.G.G. wrote at longer length reviewing his racing life, but nothingmore with relation to the VOW reply. END NOTE

And then W wrote two letters in reply to the queries in quick time on April 17and M ay 29.LET'S A LOTTERY

IIAVING previously caused som e consternation w ithin Sports Forum , Im hesitantto put pen to paper, but Jan 17 issue contained three letters which Ifeel w arrantCOmment.

The Grand National Sw eepstakes suggestion from A.Pantell w ill I hope not be lefton the back page of the S.C.H.B. National lotteries are a feature in many countries andthe precedent was set in the United Kingdom by the introduction o f P rem ium Bonds. Iappreciate it w ill require a little more relax ation of the stuffed shirt and stiff upper lip toeDlbark upon National Lotteries o f th is kind, but feel sure readers of S.C.H.B. could getit of the ground. M ay I suggest that readers sym pathetic to the idea write to their M P'sand app rOPria te m inis te rs . If they do not know W hOtheir M .P. is they can easily find outo r ju st addreSS a le tter to The M ember for SUCh and SUCh Constituency, c/o H ouses Ofparliament, London. Just one POint. y restrict it to the National? There COUld beseveral - Derby, St Leger, Cheltenham GO ld CUP or the F.A . CUP fo r th at m atter.The remaining two letters from F.Chester and R .Sm ith can be covered by putting

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fo rw ard th e ou tlin e of a very sim ple m ethod. C onsider the two races on the card havingthe highest prize m oney. On the course study the boards, but in the betting shop youwill have to wait for a show. If th e favourite is at reasonable odds and the field not toolarge, select the first five in the betting.From these sort out the three that have been off the course for the shortest time. Youcan use the three highest race num bers from returns if you like, but watch for any thatran a few days previous and are not listed. Call the three horses A, B, and C and splitthem into two bets (A being the first quote) A B and B C. Stake two points A and onepoint B for the first bet and one point each B C for the second. Each of th e two bets arekept separate and applied to a simple s ng method. If A or C wins that particularse rie s w in s. If B w ins both succeed.I will give a few illustrations to show points to watch out for from the 'pullout' ofthe sam e issue as the letters (Jan 17).Race 1387. Favourite is odds-on and not a race to bet on w ith this m ethod as DikaroLady was among the three. On the other hand, note race 1432. The even moneyfavourite Tommy Joe does not come in the three, so a bet favoured A B w inning w ithMac Vidi 4-1. The same applies to race 1418 where again A B wins with Turk 11-4.Note also race 1399 S tockton, 1-45, Jan 8. Rigorous has a 10lb penalty so leave it out.Here B C wins with Burelor 9-1. Note also race 1393, Fontwell. In this race four comeout, but it does not require much thought to leave out St Gawain. Both A Band B Cwin w ith C abar Feidh 100-30.I hav e o utlin ed just the bare bones of the m ethod leaving readers to use a littleinitiative. Those who studied my previous contributions will appreciate this is justanother w ay to reduce the field and it will no doubt help them to arrive at just oneselection for the race. The process is very simple.For Mr Chester, I hope it show s there is alw ays another w ay round a problem. MrR .Sm ith m ay care to consider that a lth ough Rough and Tumble featured in my three forlast year's National it is one that lacks a tunt of foot when the chips are down, but Iwish him luck. He may need it.A METHOD NOT RULES NEEDED

TIME and again within Forum, readers seek specific RULES in their w inner findingquest. Without wishing to dam pen anyone's spirit or appear vague, I must suggest thatsuccess does not come from this quar te r. Certainly a well-founded approach is needed,but there is a con sid erable d iffe renc e between being methodical and systematic.A quaint hit Of colloquial English I heard some years ago was 'apples always fall inorchards' . In racing, this suggests looking for the orchard and leaving the country lanesto those W hO lack th e intelligence to do otherwise,Put another way, arm yourself With all the relevant knowledge, learn hOW and Whento use it and the apples Will start to fall. Everyone knOWS that houses are built Of briCkS

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and mortar, but there is a lot more to it than that, and in both cases a sound foundationis the first requisite.0.0.0., Edmonton, March 20, expounds the virtues of a discussion group. Asuggeston which could enliven and b ro aden Forum, but it c anno t su cc eed on a one-waybasis. Nobody knows everything and those w ho think they do are kidding themselves.K .Sim pson (Staffs) m ay care to revise the way in which he calculates th e three mostconsistent horses. Placings one-to-nine a re counted as they stand, but for reasons whichshould be obvious, th ose b ey ond this range or those f in ishing last should be calculatedas 10, i.e. 3rd, 15th, 2nd 15. 3rd, Last, 4 th 17 .Perhaps it would help J.P.Hollis and get 0.0.0., E onton's suggestion off theund if some discussion took place on the subject of rating and ratings.Two different matters. May Iagain suggest that ratings are a guide and should be

used in conjunction with other factors and in this light, perhaps J.P.Hollis is looking inth e wrong e ctio n. T he re are num erous m ethods of rating and it is sim ple to deviseone yourself, but first a sound basis is required.A sig nifica nt fac to r w ith regard to racing that is apparently not know n or completelyignored by the vast majority of punters is that o f c la ss . True, there is som e controversyas to what determ ines class, but it remains positive that the class horse given otherfactors, u sually w ins. It is said there is no such thing as a racing certainty , but I ventureto suggest that this statem ent is not entirely true. Indeed, given certain fa cto rs whic h

occur with re gu la rity , th e p ro spec t of a very high success rate is there for anyone withth e capabilities required.I have previously stated that temperament plays a big part in sorting out the winnersand losers and will go so far as to su gg est it is the principal asse t whic h contributes toth e capabilities referred to.The second is knowing w hat to look for and where to find it. In earlier letters Ihaveendeavoured to illustrate areas that produce a high percentage of winners and onone occasion offered a formula to em brace the factors outlined. That formula was,C on sistent F orm + Ability + Capability + Probability + Hard Work W inners. Fromsubsequent letters in Forum it was apparent that the majority of readers failed tocom prehend w hat to my mind is elementary.Before throwing any m ore light on the above, perhaps it would be helpful to survey aphenom ena. There are not all that many really top-class horses these days and it is afact that to day 's steep lech asers are lighter and faster w ith less ability to carry staggeringweights than those of 30-odd years ago.AnY serious punter must have noticed th e frequency With which high-class conditionrac es re su lt in small f ie ld s o ften With only tw o or three runners. This is not surprisingWhen the iIllplications are considered, The entrance and acceptance fees m ay involve50 which to all intents is thrown down the drain for the lower Class horse, but themore important factor is W h Y risk the consequences involved,

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Most of these sm all field races are not true run and for the low er-class horse the riskis being allotted more than a fair weight in handicap com pany after finishing withi afew lengths of a class horse. Moreover, there is the fact that they m eet on only poundsdifference in the condition race, but in a handic ap it could be a couple of stone or more.There is a clear message in the above and it should enable the astute punter to prosper.Iaid there is some controversy as to the definition of class, a phrase that is bandiedab ou t in spo rtin g circles. A class athlete, footballer, etc. B y what criterion is this judgedif not by w hat they have acheived? Or put another way, their ability. A simple way torate the field on ability is to relate the prize money won to the number of races won.his can be accomplished by viewing the prize money in hundreds of pounds dividedby the number of races won. For obvious reasons this is n ot fo olproo f, but at least itenables a bette r judgement to be m ade and usually it is unwise to stray from the topfew. For illustration consider the following:

Wincanton, 2.30, January 10, John Bull Chase:Horse Prize money won Races won Ability ratingCasamayorChumsonDiamond EdgeGandy VIN ibi 111'1 mm

1,9076,11032,8845,69318,837

25 (1 walk over)648

91 255(W 8/11)1423On the same card, the only other horses that m et all the requirements were CrownMatrimonial won 5/2 and Parkhouse w on 3/1. M odest prices on this day, but considerJananuary 7, Leicester, 1-15. Ascenia w on 7/1. All of these were in my view racingcertain ties an d there are many m ore at bette r o dd s.With m inor m odifications the m ethod of rating can be applied to Flat racing, but Imust again stress ratings are a guide and should be used in conjunction with otherfactors. This method does not evaluate the ability of any horse that has not WOD, butthere are ways of doing so which should be used in conjuction.Finally, I must her stress that

The Golden Years(2)

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