The Globalization Process and the Productive Structure of the Brazilian Economy in the 1990s
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Transcript of The Globalization Process and the Productive Structure of the Brazilian Economy in the 1990s
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The Globalization Process and the Productive Structure of the Brazilian Economy in the 1990s
Joaquim J.M. [email protected] - University of São Paulo and REAL - University of Illinois
Cleise M.A.T. HilgembergState University of Ponta Grossa (Paraná, Brazil) Emerson M. HilgembergState University of Ponta Grossa (Paraná, Brazil)
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AgendaIntroductionTheoretical Background
MultipliersThe Hirschman/Rasmussen LinkagesThe Pure Linkages Approach
The Brazilian Economy in the 1990sResults
The Productive StructureThe External Sector
Final Comments
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Theoretical Background
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Theoretical Background
Multipliers
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Theoretical Background
The Hirschman/Rasmussen Linkages
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Theoretical Background
The Pure Linkages Approach
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Theoretical Background
The Pure Linkages Approach
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The Brazilian Economy in the 1990s
Beginning of the 1990sGlobalizationHyperinflationStart of the openness process
1994The REAL planPrice stabilization
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The Brazilian Economy in the 1990sTable 1. Main Macroeconomic Indicators of the Brazilian Economy, 1990 to 1999.
GDP Growth (%)
GDP Deflator
(%)
Inflation (IGP-DI)
(%)
Investment as a GDP Share
(%)
Average Unemployment
(%)
1990 -4.35 2736.97 1216.97 20.66 4.65 1991 1.03 416.68 496.71 18.11 5.24 1992 -0.54 969.01 1167.17 18.42 6.14 1993 4.92 1996.15 2851.33 19.28 5.75 1994 5.85 2240.17 908.01 20.75 5.44 1995 4.22 77.55 15.02 20.54 4.96 1996 2.66 17.41 9.22 19.26 5.81 1997 3.27 8.25 7.11 19.86 6.14 1998 0.13 4.85 1.84 19.69 8.35 1999 0.81 4.59 19.91 19.10 8.26
Source: IPEADATA (2002)
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The Brazilian Economy in the 1990sGDP & Unemployment in the 1990s
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
%
GDP
Unemployment
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The Brazilian Economy in the 1990sTable 2. Main External Market Indicators of the Brazilian Economy, 1990 to 1999.
Exchange Rate
(R$/US$)
Import Tariff (Average)
(%)
External Debt (US$ Billion)
Exports (US$ Billion)
Imports (US$ Billion)
Trade Balance (US$ Billion)
1990 - 32.2 123.439 31.414 20.661 10.752 1991 - 25.3 123.910 31.620 21.041 10.580 1992 - 20.8 135.949 35.793 20.554 15.239 1993 - 16.5 145.726 38.555 25.256 13.299 1994 0.85 13.5 148.295 43.545 33.079 10.467 1995 0.97 13.0 159.256 46.506 49.972 -3.466 1996 1.04 13.6 179.935 47.747 53.346 -5.599 1997 1.12 13.8 199.998 52.994 59.747 -6.753 1998 1.21 16.7 241.644 51.140 57.714 -6.575 1999 1.79 _- 241.469 48.011 49.210 -1.199 Source: IPEADATA (2002)
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The Brazilian Economy in the 1990sExternal Market
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
US
$ B
illi
on
Exports
Imports
Trade Balance
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Results – The Productive StructureShare in Total Production, 1990 a 1999
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
%
Public Utilities
Construction
Agriculture
Industry
Services
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Results – The Productive StructureShare in the Value Added, 1990 a 1999
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
%
Services
Industry
Construction
Agriculture
Public Utilities
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Results – The Productive StructureShare in Employment, 1990 a 1999
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
%
Services
Industry
Construction
Agriculture
Public Utilities
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Results – The Productive Structure
Source: Research Data.
Figure 1. Electroeconogram of the Changes in the 1990 Output Multiplier, Type I, 1991 to
1999
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
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Results – The Productive Structure
Source: Research Data.
Figure 2. Electroeconogram of the Changes in the 1990 Output M ultiplier, Type II, 1991 to 1999
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
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Results – The Productive Structure
Source: Research Data. Figure 3. Electroeconogram of the Changes in the 1990 Hirschman/Rasmussen Backward Linkages, 1991 to 1999
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
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Results – The Productive Structure
Source: Research Data.
Figure 4. Electroeconogram of the Changes in the 1990 Hirschman/Rasmussen Forward Linkages, 1991 to 1999
-1.20
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
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Results – The Productive Structure
Source: Research Data.
Figure 5. Electroeconogram of the Changes in the 1990 Pure Total Linkages, 1991 to 1999
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
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Results – The Productive Structure
Figure 6. Landscape of the Brazilian Economy, 1990
Figure 7. Landscape of the Brazilian Economy,1994
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Results – The Productive Structure
Figure 8. Landscape of the Brazilian Economy, 1995
Figure 9. Landscape of the Brazilian Economy, 1999
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Results – The Productive Structure
Figure 10. Landscape of the Brazilian Economy, 1999 less 1990
Figure 11. Landscape of the Brazilian Economy, 1994 less1990
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Results – The Productive Structure
Figure 12. Landscape of the Brazilian Economy,1999 less 1994
Figure 13. Landscape of the Brazilian Economy, 1991 less1990
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Results – The Productive Structure
Figure 14. Landscape of the Brazilian Economy, 1992 less 1991
Figure 15. Landscape of the Brazilian Economy, 1993 less 1992
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Results – The Productive Structure
Figure 16. Landscape of the Brazilian Economy, 1994 less 1993
Figure 17. Landscape of the Brazilian Economy, 1995 less1994
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Results – The Productive Structure
Figure 18. Landscape of the Brazilian
Economy, 1996 less 1995 Figure 19. Landscape of the Brazilian
Economy, 1997 less 1996
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Results – The Productive Structure
Figure 20. Landscape of the Brazilian Economy, 1998 less 1997
Figure 21. Landscape of the Brazilian Economy, 1999 less 1998
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Results – The Productive StructureTable 13. Employment Multipliers, Type I, 1990 to 1999.
Macro Sectors 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Average
Agriculture 1.31 1.31 1.33 1.33 1.30 1.26 1.28 1.27 1.27 1.29 1.29
Industry 8.94 8.84 7.96 7.76 8.58 7.57 7.94 7.39 7.74 6.89 7.96
Public Utilities 3.39 4.60 4.26 3.06 3.04 2.34 2.40 2.57 2.83 2.98 3.15
Construction 2.40 2.33 2.13 2.00 1.96 1.67 1.60 1.61 1.56 1.57 1.88
Services 1.60 1.57 1.54 1.63 1.66 1.50 1.52 1.54 1.60 1.62 1.58
Average 6.90 6.85 6.20 6.04 6.63 5.86 6.12 5.74 6.00 5.41 6.17
Table 14. Employment Multipliers, Type II, 1990 to 1999.
Macro Sectors 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Average
Agriculture 1.74 1.84 1.81 1.73 1.79 1.72 1.84 1.81 1.79 1.83 1.79
Industry 19.41 21.84 18.18 16.05 20.78 17.38 19.75 18.69 19.22 17.45 18.87
Public Utilities 16.05 21.38 19.19 16.89 20.80 14.30 15.85 16.88 17.64 19.14 17.81
Construction 6.26 6.65 5.44 4.59 5.27 4.08 4.10 4.10 3.73 3.71 4.79
Services 5.71 7.06 6.09 5.56 7.79 6.91 7.58 7.73 7.84 7.99 7.03
Average 15.66 17.82 14.92 13.21 17.18 14.38 16.25 15.55 15.96 14.76 15.57
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Results – The Productive StructureTotal Employment Generated by US$ 558.7 Thousand of 1999, 1990 a 1999
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
N.
of
Job
s Services
Agriculture
Industry
Construction
Public Utilities
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Results – The External SectorContribution of Exports to the Value Added, 1990 a 1999
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
%
Construction
Services
TotalPublic Utilities
Industry
Agriculture
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Results – The External SectorNet Effect of the Trade Balance Over Employment, 1990 a 1999
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
N.
of
Job
s
Industry
Agriculture
Public Utilities
Total
Services
Construction
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Results – The External SectorNet Effect of the Trade Balance Over Value Added (US$ Millions of 1999), 1990 a 1999
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
US
$ M
illi
on
s
Agriculture
Total
Construction
Pubic Utilities
Industry
Services
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Final Comments
There is a Modernization of the agricultural sector which leads to:
Increasing links with the economyReduction on its capacity to generate employment
The Industrial sector becomes more dependent on imported inputsIncreases the importance of the Service sector as “Job Creator”
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Final Comments
The Brazilian economy is probably exporting products intensive in labor and importing products intensive in capital.The Real Plan + The Openness process has probably caused a strong change in the productive structure of the Brazilian economy
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Final Comments