The global steel industry in the post pandemic era514edba3-1429-47da...16 November 2020 1 The global...

Nae Hee Han | Director, Economic StudiesWorld Steel Association16 November 2020

1

The global steel industry in the post pandemic era

▌Disclaimer

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2

3

The short-term impact of COVID-19 on steel demand

0123456789

10

World Adv econ Em econ US EU Japan China India Brazil Russia

Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20%

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

World Adv econ Em econ US EU Japan China India Brazil Russia

Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20%

Source: IHSMarkit

V-shaped recovery thanks to the release of pent-up demand, but since August, the momentum is levelling off. Fear of second waves further clouds recovery prospects. The recovery will be uneven

Better than expected post lockdown recovery led to an upward revision of the GDP outlook globally except for India. Still, a deep economic downturn is inevitable

4

Weak confidence, high level of unemployment anddamages to supply chains point to a slow recoveryfor years to come. Emerging economies are morevulnerable to the pandemic shock

2020 GDP forecast revisions, %

2021 GDP forecast revisions, %

Global economic outlook

▌Global overviewSteel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2020)

5

2020 (forecasts)

Mt Mt Mt1 725.1

-2.4%

2019

1 766.7

3.5% / 1.3%*

2021 (forecasts)

1 795.1

4.1%

Mt = Million tonnes

*World growth rates based on adjusted Chinese growth rates

db

201620172018201920202021

Austria3.8364.0954.1853.9793.4653.598

Belgium-Luxembourg4.3864.5574.6394.6394.3144.659

Czech Republic6.9007.2007.6007.2006.5006.810

Finland1.7061.9771.9601.7391.4801.630

France13.02414.12614.08213.80111.73012.669

Germany40.45441.00039.64835.03229.68733.656

Hungary2.5382.6592.7852.7612.4872.586

Italy23.70424.84425.28924.97719.60722.666

Netherlands4.0223.9814.8324.5864.3134.587

Poland13.14813.60114.89513.63312.10912.440

Slovak Republic2.2562.4402.5542.4572.2362.460

Slovenia1.0941.2431.3711.2521.1501.250

Spain12.57613.25813.83713.24010.85512.395

Sweden3.8734.1264.0633.8013.5353.818

United Kingdom10.88311.00310.82210.1898.1509.641

Rest of EU (28)13.71313.61315.00415.06312.68914.173

European Union (28)158.114163.724167.567158.349134.307149.037

European Union (15)124.361128.914129.741122.387102.499115.354

Turkey34.07735.92630.73525.99828.60032.000

Rest of Other Europe6.4836.4826.8017.7966.5517.341

Other Europe40.56042.40837.53633.79435.15139.341

Kazakhstan2.3152.6302.4982.6222.4382.633

Russia38.74940.86141.42243.70039.98641.985

Ukraine4.2454.5604.6834.6553.9574.313

Rest of CIS5.7426.3406.9957.9247.2107.606

CIS51.05254.39155.59758.90153.59056.537

Canada13.36114.04015.11613.00011.00011.700

Mexico25.48726.50925.99424.61921.32022.877

United States91.86197.72299.77597.65082.25187.644

USMCA130.709138.271140.885135.270114.571122.221

Argentina4.2064.9204.8263.9193.3233.485

Brazil18.52019.52321.20720.97719.98821.329

Chile2.6072.7592.7052.8192.1702.450

Colombia3.6603.5503.6543.5762.7533.166

Peru2.9653.6592.9813.0082.5552.989

Venezuela0.6780.5110.1700.1190.0780.096

Rest of C & S America7.1027.1897.3957.2166.5556.988

Central & South America39.73842.11142.93741.63337.42340.504

Algeria5.6885.8135.4285.5825.0245.275

Egypt11.68310.17811.06710.3549.15510.007

Morocco2.8593.0312.9773.0362.6722.859

South Africa4.9704.7394.6634.4703.1683.700

Rest of Africa12.41010.79312.12212.96810.57711.585

Africa37.61034.55436.25736.41130.59633.426

12.652-5.553-5.809

Iran19.10519.95719.55818.49014.79216.567

Saudi Arabia12.20011.8348.6008.6527.2977.468

United Arab Emirates7.8337.9317.8657.5915.5535.809

Rest of the Middle East13.94513.44213.60613.14310.87911.069

Middle East53.08353.16449.62947.87638.52140.913

681.020773.840836.050907.460916.600916.600

China681.020773.840836.050907.460980.057980.057

India83.64388.68096.737102.62281.863100.443

Indonesia12.67313.59215.08215.94314.98616.005

Japan62.17164.38265.41163.20650.80054.900

Malaysia10.2569.4439.7769.2267.8428.312

Philippines9.6779.81910.7269.8478.8629.544

Singapore2.8322.7202.8912.3192.2002.300

South Korea57.07656.31353.71053.22348.87750.758

Taiwan, China18.27717.65317.85317.62317.43617.693

Thailand20.77719.03819.23518.42016.81717.524

Vietnam22.32821.63722.31224.32024.56325.914

Rest of Asia20.91720.70520.34923.64220.51423.285

Asia1001.6461097.8221170.1311247.8501274.8181306.737

Australia5.8495.4415.5005.5005.1005.300

New Zealand0.7560.7880.8150.8100.7500.780

Other Oceania0.3430.3260.2870.2950.2730.284

Oceania6.9486.5556.6026.6056.1236.364

Asia & Oceania1008.5951104.3771176.7331254.4551280.9421313.101

2.0003.0003.0004.000

World1519.4601632.9991707.1401766.6891725.1011795.080

World excl. China838.440859.159871.090859.229745.044815.023

BRIC821.932922.904995.4161074.7591121.8931143.814

MENA72.56771.16267.98265.85354.76258.435

Developed Economies393.186405.287409.109393.442336.750363.460

Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances)1126.2741227.7121298.0311373.2471388.3511431.620

Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances) excl. China445.254453.872461.981465.787408.294451.563

World excl. BRIC697.528710.095711.724691.930603.208651.266

Developing Asia858.974954.5671027.9511109.1401153.3071178.791

Developing Asia excl. China177.954180.727191.901201.680173.250198.734

ASEAN (5)75.71173.52977.13277.75573.07177.300

Developed Asia142.673143.255142.180138.710121.512127.945

Northern Europe84.29387.01286.43579.98568.53376.350

Southern Europe40.06741.90243.30742.40233.96639.005

Middle East excl. Iran33.97833.20730.07129.38623.72924.346

MENA excl. Iran53.46251.20548.42447.36339.97141.869

GCC24.62824.39220.84120.24315.85016.049

Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa9.8948.7099.93910.6578.5259.378

World excl. China and EU680.327695.435703.523700.880610.737665.986

130.7090749138.2708093140.8846913135.2697676114.5714827122.2208779

European Union (13)33.752994734.809145837.8253235.962315731.807636749933.6828231624

The Pacific Alliance (excl. Mexico)9.232157789.96779.339619579.402442077.478720398.60576704

Mercosur23.90785525.453564526.851525.53935623.87408125.4175475

North Africa22.74621.10530621.65451221.28387418.90230120.34789

Sub-Saharan Africa14.86401513.44859614.60198915.12679711.693437613.07798136

presentation

20192020 (forecasts)2021 (forecasts)

MtMtMt

1,766.71,725.11,795.1

3.5% / 1.3%*-2.4%4.1%

Steel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2020)

▌Regional overview

6

-5.5

-10.0

5.9

-4.0 -3.0

0.4

-3.5 -2.4

5.1 4.01.3

-15.2

4.0

-9.0

-15.3

-10.1

-16.0

-19.5

-12.4-14.1

8.0

-2.4

11.0 11.9

5.5 6.78.2 9.3

6.25.3

14.7

0.0

4.1

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

European Union(28)

Other Europe CIS USMCA Central & SouthAmerica

Africa Middle East Developed Asia Developing Asiaexcl. China

China World

% 2019* 2020 2021

2021 (Mt)

149.2 39.3 56.5 122.2 40.5 33.4 40.9 127.9 980.1 1 795.1198.7

*World growth rates based on adjusted Chinese growth rates

Crisis impact on sectors: 2009 vs 2020

-3.2

-23.9

-16.9

-3.9-1.3

-6.3-5.4

-21.6

-6.6

-5.6

-4.6

-2.4

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

Construction

Automotive

Mechanicalmachinery

Investments

GDP

Steel demand

2009

2020 (f)

Steel demand

Global financial crisis vs COVID-19 crisisComparison by sector

7

COVID-19 impact on GDP and investment is larger than global financial crisis (GFC), but the impact on global steel demand is milder

The automotive sector is the hardest hit steel using sector in both crises, while the mechanical machinery sector contracts less with COVID-19 crisis

Source: worldsteel, IHS Markit

8

Impact on steel demand milder than GFC, for advanced economies, but from a low level

Some emerging economies harder hit by COVID-19 than by GFC, in particular India & MENA

2009 vs 2020Developed economies

%

09/08 10/09 20/19 21/20World -6.3 14.1 -2.4 4.1

Developed -33.3 24.9 -14.4 7.9United States -39.8 34.9 -15.8 6.6European Union (28) -35.0 20.9 -15.2 11.0

France -28.3 18.8 -15.0 8.0Germany -33.4 28.5 -15.3 13.4Italy -39.7 27.8 -21.5 15.6Spain -34.0 10.0 -18.0 14.2

Japan -32.3 20.4 -19.6 8.1South Korea -22.5 15.4 -8.2 3.8

GFC SRO Oct 20

Global financial crisis vs COVID-19 crisisComparison by region

Recovery will be slower for both developed and emerging than the post GFC era

%

09/08 10/09 20/19 21/20World -6.3 14.1 -2.4 4.1

China 23.4 6.6 8.0 0.0Emerging & Developing excl. China

-10.0 17.3 -12.3 10.6

India 12.5 12.2 -20.2 22.7ASEAN (5) -7.9 17.2 -6.0 5.8MENA 4.9 -1.4 -16.8 6.7Russia -30.0 48.0 -8.5 5.0Mexico -14.4 17.0 -13.4 7.3Brazil -22.8 43.6 -4.7 6.7

GFC SRO Oct 202009 vs 2020Developing economies

db

201620172018201920202021

Austria3.8364.0954.1853.9793.4653.598


Czech Republic6.9007.2007.6007.2006.5006.810

Finland1.7061.9771.9601.7391.4801.630

France13.02414.12614.08213.80111.73012.669

Germany40.45441.00039.64835.03229.68733.656

Hungary2.5382.6592.7852.7612.4872.586

Italy23.70424.84425.28924.97719.60722.666

Netherlands4.0223.9814.8324.5864.3134.587

Poland13.14813.60114.89513.63312.10912.440

Slovak Republic2.2562.4402.5542.4572.2362.460

Slovenia1.0941.2431.3711.2521.1501.250

Spain12.57613.25813.83713.24010.85512.395

Sweden3.8734.1264.0633.8013.5353.818

United Kingdom10.88311.00310.82210.1898.1509.641

Rest of EU (28)13.71313.61315.00415.06312.68914.173

European Union (28)158.114163.724167.567158.349134.307149.037

European Union (15)124.361128.914129.741122.387102.499115.354

Turkey34.07735.92630.73525.99828.60032.000


Other Europe40.56042.40837.53633.79435.15139.341

Kazakhstan2.3152.6302.4982.6222.4382.633

Russia38.74940.86141.42243.70039.98641.985

Ukraine4.2454.5604.6834.6553.9574.313

Rest of CIS5.7426.3406.9957.9247.2107.606

CIS51.05254.39155.59758.90153.59056.537

Canada13.36114.04015.11613.00011.00011.700

Mexico25.48726.50925.99424.61921.32022.877

United States91.86197.72299.77597.65082.25187.644

USMCA130.709138.271140.885135.270114.571122.221

Argentina4.2064.9204.8263.9193.3233.485

Brazil18.52019.52321.20720.97719.98821.329

Chile2.6072.7592.7052.8192.1702.450

Colombia3.6603.5503.6543.5762.7533.166

Peru2.9653.6592.9813.0082.5552.989

Venezuela0.6780.5110.1700.1190.0780.096



Algeria5.6885.8135.4285.5825.0245.275

Egypt11.68310.17811.06710.3549.15510.007

Morocco2.8593.0312.9773.0362.6722.859

South Africa4.9704.7394.6634.4703.1683.700

Rest of Africa12.41010.79312.12212.96810.57711.585

Africa37.61034.55436.25736.41130.59633.426

12.652-5.553-5.809

Iran19.10519.95719.55818.49014.79216.567

Saudi Arabia12.20011.8348.6008.6527.2977.468



Middle East53.08353.16449.62947.87638.52140.913

681.020773.840836.050907.460916.600916.600

China681.020773.840836.050907.460980.057980.057

India83.64388.68096.737102.62281.863100.443

Indonesia12.67313.59215.08215.94314.98616.005

Japan62.17164.38265.41163.20650.80054.900

Malaysia10.2569.4439.7769.2267.8428.312

Philippines9.6779.81910.7269.8478.8629.544

Singapore2.8322.7202.8912.3192.2002.300

South Korea57.07656.31353.71053.22348.87750.758

Taiwan, China18.27717.65317.85317.62317.43617.693

Thailand20.77719.03819.23518.42016.81717.524

Vietnam22.32821.63722.31224.32024.56325.914

Rest of Asia20.91720.70520.34923.64220.51423.285

Asia1,001.6461,097.8221,170.1311,247.8501,274.8181,306.737

Australia5.8495.4415.5005.5005.1005.300

New Zealand0.7560.7880.8150.8100.7500.780

Other Oceania0.3430.3260.2870.2950.2730.284

Oceania6.9486.5556.6026.6056.1236.364

Asia & Oceania1,008.5951,104.3771,176.7331,254.4551,280.9421,313.101

2.0003.0003.0004.000

World1,519.4601,632.9991,707.1401,766.6891,725.1011,795.080

World excl. China838.440859.159871.090859.229745.044815.023

BRIC821.932922.904995.4161,074.7591,121.8931,143.814

MENA72.56771.16267.98265.85354.76258.435


Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances)1,126.2741,227.7121,298.0311,373.2471,388.3511,431.620


World excl. BRIC697.528710.095711.724691.930603.208651.266

Developing Asia858.974954.5671,027.9511,109.1401,153.3071,178.791


ASEAN (5)75.71173.52977.13277.75573.07177.300

Developed Asia142.673143.255142.180138.710121.512127.945

Northern Europe84.29387.01286.43579.98568.53376.350

Southern Europe40.06741.90243.30742.40233.96639.005


MENA excl. Iran53.46251.20548.42447.36339.97141.869

GCC24.62824.39220.84120.24315.85016.049



130.709138.271140.885135.270114.571122.221

European Union (13)33.75334.80937.82535.96231.80833.683


Mercosur23.90825.45426.85225.53923.87425.418

North Africa22.74621.10521.65521.28418.90220.348


presentation

%

GFCSRO Oct 20

09/0810/0920/1921/20

World-6.314.1-2.44.1

Developed-33.324.9-14.47.9

United States-39.834.9-15.86.6

European Union (28)-35.020.9-15.211.0

France-28.318.8-15.08.0

Germany-33.428.5-15.313.4

Italy-39.727.8-21.515.6

Spain-34.010.0-18.014.2

Japan-32.320.4-19.68.1

South Korea-22.515.4-8.23.8

db

201620172018201920202021

Austria3.8364.0954.1853.9793.4653.598


Czech Republic6.9007.2007.6007.2006.5006.810

Finland1.7061.9771.9601.7391.4801.630

France13.02414.12614.08213.80111.73012.669

Germany40.45441.00039.64835.03229.68733.656

Hungary2.5382.6592.7852.7612.4872.586

Italy23.70424.84425.28924.97719.60722.666

Netherlands4.0223.9814.8324.5864.3134.587

Poland13.14813.60114.89513.63312.10912.440

Slovak Republic2.2562.4402.5542.4572.2362.460

Slovenia1.0941.2431.3711.2521.1501.250

Spain12.57613.25813.83713.24010.85512.395

Sweden3.8734.1264.0633.8013.5353.818

United Kingdom10.88311.00310.82210.1898.1509.641

Rest of EU (28)13.71313.61315.00415.06312.68914.173

European Union (28)158.114163.724167.567158.349134.307149.037

European Union (15)124.361128.914129.741122.387102.499115.354

Turkey34.07735.92630.73525.99828.60032.000


Other Europe40.56042.40837.53633.79435.15139.341

Kazakhstan2.3152.6302.4982.6222.4382.633

Russia38.74940.86141.42243.70039.98641.985

Ukraine4.2454.5604.6834.6553.9574.313

Rest of CIS5.7426.3406.9957.9247.2107.606

CIS51.05254.39155.59758.90153.59056.537

Canada13.36114.04015.11613.00011.00011.700

Mexico25.48726.50925.99424.61921.32022.877

United States91.86197.72299.77597.65082.25187.644

USMCA130.709138.271140.885135.270114.571122.221

Argentina4.2064.9204.8263.9193.3233.485

Brazil18.52019.52321.20720.97719.98821.329

Chile2.6072.7592.7052.8192.1702.450

Colombia3.6603.5503.6543.5762.7533.166

Peru2.9653.6592.9813.0082.5552.989

Venezuela0.6780.5110.1700.1190.0780.096



Algeria5.6885.8135.4285.5825.0245.275

Egypt11.68310.17811.06710.3549.15510.007

Morocco2.8593.0312.9773.0362.6722.859

South Africa4.9704.7394.6634.4703.1683.700

Rest of Africa12.41010.79312.12212.96810.57711.585

Africa37.61034.55436.25736.41130.59633.426

12.652-5.553-5.809

Iran19.10519.95719.55818.49014.79216.567

Saudi Arabia12.20011.8348.6008.6527.2977.468



Middle East53.08353.16449.62947.87638.52140.913

681.020773.840836.050907.460916.600916.600

China681.020773.840836.050907.460980.057980.057

India83.64388.68096.737102.62281.863100.443

Indonesia12.67313.59215.08215.94314.98616.005

Japan62.17164.38265.41163.20650.80054.900

Malaysia10.2569.4439.7769.2267.8428.312

Philippines9.6779.81910.7269.8478.8629.544

Singapore2.8322.7202.8912.3192.2002.300

South Korea57.07656.31353.71053.22348.87750.758

Taiwan, China18.27717.65317.85317.62317.43617.693

Thailand20.77719.03819.23518.42016.81717.524

Vietnam22.32821.63722.31224.32024.56325.914

Rest of Asia20.91720.70520.34923.64220.51423.285

Asia1,001.6461,097.8221,170.1311,247.8501,274.8181,306.737

Australia5.8495.4415.5005.5005.1005.300

New Zealand0.7560.7880.8150.8100.7500.780

Other Oceania0.3430.3260.2870.2950.2730.284

Oceania6.9486.5556.6026.6056.1236.364

Asia & Oceania1,008.5951,104.3771,176.7331,254.4551,280.9421,313.101

2.0003.0003.0004.000

World1,519.4601,632.9991,707.1401,766.6891,725.1011,795.080

World excl. China838.440859.159871.090859.229745.044815.023

BRIC821.932922.904995.4161,074.7591,121.8931,143.814

MENA72.56771.16267.98265.85354.76258.435


Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances)1,126.2741,227.7121,298.0311,373.2471,388.3511,431.620


World excl. BRIC697.528710.095711.724691.930603.208651.266

Developing Asia858.974954.5671,027.9511,109.1401,153.3071,178.791


ASEAN (5)75.71173.52977.13277.75573.07177.300

Developed Asia142.673143.255142.180138.710121.512127.945

Northern Europe84.29387.01286.43579.98568.53376.350

Southern Europe40.06741.90243.30742.40233.96639.005


MENA excl. Iran53.46251.20548.42447.36339.97141.869

GCC24.62824.39220.84120.24315.85016.049



130.709138.271140.885135.270114.571122.221

European Union (13)33.75334.80937.82535.96231.80833.683


Mercosur23.90825.45426.85225.53923.87425.418

North Africa22.74621.10521.65521.28418.90220.348


presentation

%

GFCSRO Oct 20

09/0810/0920/1921/20

World-6.314.1-2.44.1

China23.46.68.00.0

Emerging & Developing excl. China-10.017.3-12.310.6

India12.512.2-20.222.7

ASEAN (5)-7.917.2-6.05.8

MENA4.9-1.4-16.86.7

Russia-30.048.0-8.55.0

Mexico-14.417.0-13.47.3

Brazil-22.843.6-4.76.7

▌Evolution of regional shares in steel demandSteel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2020)

9

40.8%45.2%

47.7%51.8%52.7%

58.1%58.3%

61.3%63.7%

74.1%71.7%72.1%73.2%

74.9%73.5%73.7%74.1%75.2%76.0%

77.7%80.5%

79.8%

59.2%54.8%52.3%48.2%47.3%41.9%41.7%38.7%36.3%25.9%28.3%27.9%26.8%25.1%26.5%26.3%25.9%24.8%24.0%22.3%19.5%20.2%

16.6%20.7%

23.6%27.5%

28.6%33.5%33.3%34.2%

36.3%47.8%

44.7%45.2%45.7%

48.0%45.8%

44.6%44.8%

47.4%49.0%

51.4%56.8%

54.6%

2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021

Emerging & Developing Economies Developed Economies China

db

20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021

Austria2.9133.0293.1373.1373.2973.4784.0764.0903.8853.1053.5103.8943.6583.5663.6063.9053.8364.0954.1853.9793.4653.598

Belgium-Luxembourg5.7005.4004.4804.0404.7604.6005.5005.6005.4004.1004.6115.0344.2484.1914.3234.3294.3864.5574.6394.6394.3144.659

Czech Republic3.9103.9904.1784.4145.1785.2355.9706.5686.5364.5065.5206.0635.8505.8656.1956.6006.9007.2007.6007.2006.5006.810

Finland2.3422.1592.0552.0002.1582.1032.3782.5412.3131.5601.4041.1161.9171.7201.7091.7091.7061.9771.9601.7391.4801.630

France18.09116.42916.38015.70016.62114.84216.16016.61915.32810.99813.06514.01312.60812.60912.52513.23213.02414.12614.08213.80111.73012.669

Germany38.58937.44435.45133.48736.25835.25839.22242.72042.36728.20536.23840.71237.49738.01339.64239.13740.45441.00039.64835.03229.68733.656

Hungary1.7911.8122.0242.1152.1222.0232.2412.6492.7301.5331.7771.8881.7061.8632.0862.3432.5382.6592.7852.7612.4872.586

Italy30.08730.11529.47431.80033.20031.63136.44235.93033.28920.07525.65226.55021.51921.90421.92824.48823.70424.84425.28924.97719.60722.666

Netherlands4.7074.7264.0723.4513.4773.5003.6435.2284.7483.0233.5184.0814.0263.7423.4633.4964.0223.9814.8324.5864.3134.587

Poland7.5737.1067.0807.7168.4708.37410.66212.05111.5178.1949.95211.02110.40610.39712.27812.57913.14813.60114.89513.63312.10912.440

Slovak Republic1.2551.2841.3581.4811.5311.4911.9422.2942.1361.3861.8001.8431.8392.0172.1412.2262.2562.4402.5542.4572.2362.460

Slovenia0.9781.0281.0410.9841.1581.0471.2031.3961.2480.8750.8830.9240.8840.8510.8011.0311.0941.2431.3711.2521.1501.250

Spain17.40018.90019.69020.95921.11220.89523.64124.50017.99711.87613.06813.11410.43310.92311.59912.70712.57613.25813.83713.24010.85512.395

Sweden3.7513.2293.2653.5663.9994.1024.4694.8564.3392.5693.6403.8923.5023.5903.3883.3743.8734.1264.0633.8013.5353.818

United Kingdom13.83913.83113.31513.14214.33812.54714.14314.31713.0347.9099.85310.1859.6799.59210.68010.49410.88311.00310.82210.1898.1509.641

Rest of EU (28)14.04113.93215.60815.44916.32116.03919.87121.69019.68711.36712.13312.62210.94311.53712.61412.69613.71313.61315.00415.06312.68914.173

European Union (28)166.967164.414162.608163.441174.000167.165191.562203.048186.554121.280146.622156.952140.714142.379148.978154.346158.114163.724167.567158.349134.307149.0370.16132012050.168912630.1657472420.15162536830.10521220850.11146648480.11066769070.09734045050.0921787230.0960217750.10249929990.10405906430.10025944760.09815645270.08963034870.07785455680.0830253139

European Union (15)146.374144.012141.024140.836148.336141.643160.269167.136152.29899.550120.457128.081113.961115.183118.168122.257124.361128.914129.741122.387102.499115.354

Turkey13.0708.70711.28613.65515.22118.44021.22223.77021.45318.02623.56726.93128.46831.30130.77334.38134.07735.92630.73525.99828.60032.000

Rest of Other Europe4.4314.5924.3534.1474.8545.7227.2166.4916.2985.1395.2445.7285.5905.6056.2385.7176.4836.4826.8017.7966.5517.341

Other Europe17.50113.29915.63917.80220.07524.16228.43830.26127.75223.16528.81132.65934.05836.90637.01140.09840.56042.40837.53633.79435.15139.341

Kazakhstan0.9010.9000.9671.4001.8242.3052.3832.9952.3972.6372.1052.2272.7813.4902.7572.6842.3152.6302.4982.6222.4382.633

Russia20.44022.21221.23325.14526.28629.33034.91840.37935.46724.82836.74541.49042.79343.31043.14639.82438.74940.86141.42243.70039.98641.985

Ukraine4.8955.7865.5466.4205.7635.7176.6438.0526.6993.9225.4806.3326.1485.5694.2323.3094.2454.5604.6834.6553.9574.313

Rest of CIS2.7642.4472.5113.8484.2574.4144.9205.5976.1975.7135.8786.0757.3497.7987.5566.5965.7426.3406.9957.9247.2107.606

CIS29.00031.34530.25736.81338.12941.76748.86457.02250.76037.10150.20856.12559.07260.16757.69152.41351.05254.39155.59758.90153.59056.537

Canada17.80215.17315.81115.61217.38316.84318.11815.51114.6759.53114.09014.17115.57514.80015.77512.93513.36114.04015.11613.00011.00011.700

Mexico13.87412.80213.59114.09615.30515.27917.13317.10617.73715.17517.76019.80420.91120.57423.47224.88125.48726.50925.99424.61921.32022.877

United States120.012106.008107.253100.847117.371105.380119.601108.28598.40959.20679.89789.20096.20095.700106.95796.13191.86197.72299.77597.65082.25187.644

USMCA151.688133.983136.655130.555150.059137.502154.852140.902130.82183.912111.747123.175132.686131.074146.204133.947130.709138.271140.885135.270114.571122.2210.20227825930.1758458090.16849136860.14951729880.15564333230.13269443410.13654321450.11501762940.10632702870.07279516240.08495320330.08685152810.09178688030.08485961190.09423411110.08895210010.08602336610.08467293360.08252673050.07656683140.06641436110.0680865984

Argentina2.9702.5601.7462.8413.5803.7004.4944.6174.7863.2034.6205.3384.8995.0655.0095.2544.2064.9204.8263.9193.3233.485

Brazil15.76016.69416.48415.96018.31616.81218.53522.06024.04818.57626.66926.09426.57328.01825.60621.29518.52019.52321.20720.97719.98821.329

Chile1.4651.7641.7551.7712.0802.0762.3022.3102.5681.7052.3822.7383.0082.7012.6372.7972.6072.7592.7052.8192.1702.450

Colombia1.6951.3171.2961.6522.1402.3812.8232.7602.5582.2332.7993.2183.5063.4883.9544.0323.6603.5503.6543.5762.7533.166

Peru0.8250.8801.1241.0300.9371.0851.3871.5432.1491.5852.4212.4222.6762.7662.9003.4922.9653.6592.9813.0082.5552.989

Venezuela2.1732.2721.5971.4792.2812.4293.2353.6473.4002.6842.2662.6062.9902.8722.0381.8440.6780.5110.1700.1190.0780.096

Rest of C & S America2.9743.1223.2604.1633.8754.1084.5685.6865.8304.3044.7754.9645.4036.7747.1137.3637.1027.1897.3957.2166.5556.988

Central & South America27.86228.60927.26228.89633.20932.59137.34442.62245.33934.29045.93247.38149.05551.68449.25846.07739.73842.11142.93741.63337.42340.504

Algeria1.8791.9811.7952.4512.7092.8233.1032.9093.6974.2773.0633.7874.6445.6416.1735.9905.6885.8135.4285.5825.0245.275

Egypt3.9284.3864.0074.2253.8444.9714.6635.5107.46011.0549.3327.7809.4689.20710.18210.86211.68310.17811.06710.3549.15510.007

Morocco0.8941.0501.2721.2701.3291.5191.4991.4201.8761.7271.6332.7992.6002.7732.5352.7002.8593.0312.9773.0362.6722.859

South Africa4.0474.2194.8744.1094.9454.6775.8685.8076.1264.4565.0015.3325.2665.6895.1175.2944.9704.7394.6634.4703.1683.700

Rest of Africa3.3143.8413.8204.5834.5725.4334.8437.1749.04810.38212.2009.75110.95513.11313.38713.83912.41010.79312.12212.96810.57711.585

Africa14.06215.47715.76816.63817.39919.42319.97622.82028.20731.89631.22929.44932.93336.42337.39338.68537.61034.55436.25736.41130.59633.426

12.652-5.553-5.809

Iran9.5897.5749.53110.08111.67614.01013.78018.30915.04517.54619.69021.12018.97319.79819.88019.72019.10519.95719.55818.49014.79216.567

Saudi Arabia6.1776.4156.6636.9217.1897.4667.8968.4189.61310.00610.72012.00012.54013.30014.10013.50012.20011.8348.6008.6527.2977.468

United Arab Emirates1.8122.2192.2942.6373.0624.9946.4977.71212.0926.2416.6286.8337.0446.8207.1497.1367.8337.9317.8657.5915.5535.809

Rest of the Middle East4.4667.4616.2476.2537.2838.4098.1619.18610.74312.22411.62211.30112.18212.79613.38513.46013.94513.44213.60613.14310.87911.069

Middle East22.04423.66924.73525.89229.20934.87936.33443.62547.49346.01748.66051.25450.73952.71454.51453.81653.08353.16449.62947.87638.52140.913

710.768672.340681.020773.840836.050907.460916.600916.600

China124.278157.979191.329240.479275.819347.472377.664418.426446.861551.443587.581641.223660.105741.446710.768672.340681.020773.840836.050907.460980.057980.0570.16572660670.20733945830.23590271170.27540753170.28608381050.33532312540.33301049780.34155851040.36319503410.4783841380.44669547870.4521297320.45663389870.48002463090.45811740190.44649190760.44819866450.47387661420.48973719170.51365015310.56811571230.5459684839

India27.64728.52330.67733.11935.30039.90045.60051.48251.43857.89264.94069.78872.38373.65276.05080.19883.64388.68096.737102.62281.863100.443

Indonesia4.8585.0294.8594.6895.7187.2356.2457.2458.8237.4208.95010.95212.50012.69212.89811.37512.67313.59215.08215.94314.98616.005

Japan76.10073.20071.70073.43076.80076.73078.99081.18077.95052.79063.57064.10063.95065.24067.69062.95062.17164.38265.41163.20650.80054.900

Malaysia6.2137.3947.0616.1947.1386.8266.7797.6948.4916.6458.3148.2388.92210.04910.07910.00010.2569.4439.7769.2267.8428.312

Philippines3.0413.1203.7353.5923.0413.0763.1613.3973.5553.4343.9995.1086.0086.7057.3258.7609.6779.81910.7269.8478.8629.544

Singapore2.9802.8072.9992.8963.0003.0002.0002.9003.3962.8042.6803.8973.8264.2763.8334.0162.8322.7202.8912.3192.2002.300

South Korea38.30038.05543.71345.37147.20247.12349.83255.20358.57245.41452.39056.39154.06951.76255.52155.80057.07656.31353.71053.22348.87750.758

Taiwan, China21.08017.42020.39019.86022.05219.91019.82018.08016.91011.28017.79018.09617.77718.57119.55817.52718.27717.65317.85317.62317.43617.693

Thailand6.5957.5369.98811.00912.66113.87612.59012.71813.46610.75014.08514.51816.38017.82919.24818.14920.77719.03819.23518.42016.81717.524

Vietnam2.9803.7684.4895.0305.3125.6606.1479.3168.18410.92210.5729.69810.95611.76914.44118.25422.32821.63722.31224.32024.56325.914

Rest of Asia0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0008.6727.2028.1359.32511.89611.72612.43415.45719.65320.91720.70520.34923.64220.51423.285

Asia314.073344.830390.939445.669494.044570.808608.828676.313704.846768.930844.196913.903938.6021,026.4251,012.868979.0221,001.6461,097.8221,170.1311,247.8501,274.8181,306.7370.55085097380.5368422570.55207097070.57287768110.66705699240.64178151470.6443981260.64928693050.66452497360.65283257150.65015537170.65921198590.67227355640.6854336710.7063215990.73898184530.7279546219

Australia5.9005.5006.2006.5007.0006.9006.9007.3377.4265.3416.9666.0246.4585.7576.4496.2915.8495.4415.5005.5005.1005.300

New Zealand0.7200.7400.8200.8500.8900.9400.8900.9300.9000.5600.7350.7000.7370.7690.8430.8080.7560.7880.8150.8100.7500.780

Other Oceania0.0800.0680.1670.1210.1060.0930.1020.1670.2630.2270.2890.6050.5350.3010.2880.3250.3430.3260.2870.2950.2730.284

Oceania6.7006.3087.1877.4717.9967.9337.8928.4348.5896.1297.9907.3297.7306.8277.5807.4246.9486.5556.6026.6056.1236.364

Asia & Oceania320.773351.138398.127453.140502.040578.741616.720684.748713.435775.059852.186921.232946.3321,033.2531,020.448986.4461,008.5951,104.3771,176.7331,254.4551,280.9421,313.101

-5.5002.0003.0003.0004.000

World749.898761.935811.050873.177964.1211,036.2301,134.0901,225.0481,230.3611,152.7201,315.3951,418.2281,445.5891,544.6001,551.4971,505.8281,519.4601,632.9991,707.1401,766.6891,725.1011,795.08011111111111111111

World excl. China625.620603.955619.721632.697688.302688.758756.426806.622783.500601.277727.814777.005785.484803.154840.729833.488838.440859.159871.090859.229745.044815.023

BRIC188.125225.408259.723314.704355.721433.514476.717532.346557.814652.739715.935778.595801.855886.426855.570813.657821.932922.904995.4161,074.7591,121.8931,143.814

MENA28.67430.62131.34933.82837.39044.78646.17054.36961.45964.49463.56264.72167.27170.45173.49872.94772.56771.16267.98265.85354.76258.435

Developed Economies443.880417.401424.419420.761456.314434.229473.367473.768446.570298.082372.312395.246386.925387.073410.868395.956393.186405.287409.109393.442336.750363.4600.59192065820.54781672750.5232952020.48187371740.47329535880.41904662280.4173981420.38673444130.36295848830.25859030420.2830420610.27869014550.26765877480.25059756280.26482040320.26294896270.25876683040.2481858160.23964605320.22270014490.1952057540.202475552

Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances)306.018344.534386.632452.416507.807602.002660.723751.280783.791854.638943.0831,022.9821,058.6651,157.5271,140.6291,109.8721,126.2741,227.7121,298.0311,373.2471,388.3511,431.6200.40807934180.45218327250.4767047980.51812628260.52670464120.58095337720.5826018580.61326555870.63704151170.74140969580.7169579390.72130985450.73234122520.74940243720.73517959680.73705103730.74123316960.7518141840.76035394680.77729985510.8047942460.797524448

Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances) excl. China181.740186.555195.303211.936231.988254.530283.059332.854336.930303.195355.502381.759398.560416.081429.861437.532445.254453.872461.981465.787408.294451.563

World excl. BRIC561.773536.526551.327558.473608.400602.716657.374692.702672.547499.981599.460639.633643.734658.174695.927692.171697.528710.095711.724691.930603.208651.266

Developing Asia170.814208.688247.548299.624340.209420.153454.525516.438546.174655.055705.969769.662797.124884.303863.720835.204858.974954.5671,027.9511,109.1401,153.3071,178.791

Developing Asia excl. China46.53650.70956.21959.14464.38972.68176.86198.01399.313103.612118.388128.439137.019142.857152.952162.864177.954180.727191.901201.680173.250198.734

ASEAN (5)23.68826.84630.13230.51433.87036.67334.92240.37042.51839.17245.92048.51354.76659.04463.99166.53875.71173.52977.13277.75573.07177.300

Developed Asia143.259136.142143.392146.045153.835150.655154.303159.875158.673113.875138.227144.241141.478142.122149.148143.819142.673143.255142.180138.710121.512127.945

Northern Europe92.56688.82685.04781.17687.63882.95592.67599.12894.09162.74677.31284.74978.96778.84381.23481.70284.29387.01286.43579.98568.53376.350

Southern Europe53.80955.18655.97759.66060.69858.68867.59468.00958.20736.80443.14643.33234.99536.34036.93540.55440.06741.90243.30742.40233.96639.005

Middle East excl. Iran12.45516.09515.20415.81117.53320.86922.55425.31632.44828.47128.97030.13431.76632.91634.63434.09633.97833.20730.07129.38623.72924.346

MENA excl. Iran19.08523.04721.81823.74725.71430.77632.39036.06046.41446.94843.87243.60148.29850.65353.61853.22753.46251.20548.42447.36339.97141.869

GCC8.6389.83910.24111.04712.17714.84616.92118.92925.74419.45420.83421.93723.05124.08925.72225.30924.62824.39220.84120.24315.85016.049

Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa4.8946.6587.3949.5648.6198.95810.56410.67911.3349.8948.7099.93910.6578.5259.378000.00399533540.00541173940.00641431010.00727049940.00607763490.00619706860.00683904490.0068830940.00752674760.00651147720.0053333330.00582201130.00603207350.00494199320.0052242699

World excl. China and EU458.653439.542457.113469.256514.302521.594564.864603.574596.946479.997581.191620.053644.770660.775691.752679.142680.327695.435703.523700.880610.737665.986

140.902130.82183.912111.747123.175132.686131.074146.204133.947130.709138.271140.885135.270114.571122.221

European Union (13)20.59320.40221.58422.60525.66425.52231.29335.91234.25621.73026.16528.87126.75327.19630.80932.09033.75334.80937.82535.96231.80833.683

The Pacific Alliance (excl. Mexico)3.9853.9614.1754.4535.1575.5426.5126.6137.2755.5237.6028.3799.1908.9559.49110.3219.2329.9689.3409.4027.4798.606

Mercosur21.12821.76020.06120.46324.40323.23626.58430.53432.43424.70533.91934.49434.92736.41433.11928.86123.90825.45426.85225.53923.87425.418

North Africa8.2768.6838.4369.7059.90411.59711.24312.11815.42320.04616.66415.49818.70920.17021.59722.05722.74621.10521.65521.28418.90220.348

Sub-Saharan Africa10.70112.78411.85014.56513.95114.22416.25315.79616.62814.86413.44914.60215.12711.69313.078

presentation

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Developed Economies

China

0.4080793418

0.5919206582

0.1657266067

0.4521832725

0.5478167275

0.2073394583

0.476704798

0.523295202

0.2359027117

0.5181262826

0.4818737174

0.2754075317

0.5267046412

0.4732953588

0.2860838105

0.5809533772

0.4190466228

0.3353231254

0.582601858

0.417398142

0.3330104978

0.6132655587

0.3867344413

0.3415585104

0.6370415117

0.3629584883

0.3631950341

0.7414096958

0.2585903042

0.478384138

0.716957939

0.283042061

0.4466954787

0.7213098545

0.2786901455

0.452129732

0.7323412252

0.2676587748

0.4566338987

0.7494024372

0.2505975628

0.4800246309

0.7351795968

0.2648204032

0.4581174019

0.7370510373

0.2629489627

0.4464919076

0.7412331696

0.2587668304

0.4481986645

0.751814184

0.248185816

0.4738766142

0.7603539468

0.2396460532

0.4897371917

0.7772998551

0.2227001449

0.5136501531

0.804794246

0.195205754

0.5681157123

0.797524448

0.202475552

0.5459684839

The stronger than expected post lockdown recovery of steel using sectors led to upward revisions of steel demand forecast

Still, a substantial decline of steel demand is expected in 2020 in both developed and developing countries. China again is an exception

China’s role as crisis buffer is much reduced this time, compared to the global financial crisis. Nevertheless, global steel demand in 2020 will contract much less than in 2009

Strong government stimuli have provided a buffer to the pandemic shock in developed economies. Emerging economies were more vulnerable to the shock, especially India and Latin America

Beyond 2020, recovery is expected to be slow and uneven withcontinued social distancing, fall out from unemployment and corporatebankruptcies, and lingering uncertainty. Recovery to be led by emergingAsian countries

Further downside risk from second waves in various regions

Structural changes are expected to accompany the recovery process 10

▌Summary of short term impact

11

Steel industry beyond the COVID-19 pandemic

▌Pr

e-CO

VID

Meg

atre

nds

Technology• Digitisation

• Automation

International • Backlash against

globalisation

• Shifting global power, great decoupling

• Weakening of global institutes

• Rising protectionism

12

Social/Political• Political polarisation,

nationalism

• Rising inequality

• Aging population

• Urbanisation

• Rising climate change pressure

▌Pre-COVID trends in the steel industry

CO2 mitigation efforts

Slow demand growth

Auto industry transformation

New concept of urban mobility

Smart manufacturing

Shift in regional growth driver

Smart cities

Energy transformation

13

▌ Impact of the pandemic on megatrends Could accelerate or reverse ongoing megatrends

Additional impact on productivity and regional growth pattern

Social ImpactResilience building

Political Impact

Increased tele-activitiesBusiness: focus on supply

chain resilience, automation

Adjusted globalisation and new pattern of

international relationship

Shift in value/preference, environmental awareness

Consumer: higher savings

State as protector and last resort

14

Shift in the demand structure of steel using sectors• Automotive: EV transition, new urban mobility patterns• Construction: new pattern of urbanisation, changes in urban

planning and building designs, energy sector investment Slower demand growth, change in steel intensity of GDP Regional shift: acceleration of the “Asian Shift”? Increased trade protectionism Re- or Near-shoring of steel using sectors: shift in indirect trad

pattern Rising environmental pressure

▌ Possible impact on the steel industry

15

The COVID-19 pandemic might bring a far-reaching transformation of the world

Exact shape of transformation is yet to be identified, but likely to shift demand patterns and operational environment

New megatrends may offer additional challenges to the steel industry

Still, steel will be part of the solution and will also see new opportunities

▌Concluding remarks

16

▌Presenter

Nae Hee Han

Director, Economic Studies

[email protected]

17

worldsteel.org | constructsteel.org | steeluniversity.org | worldautosteel.org | issf.org

18

Slide Number 1DisclaimerSlide Number 3Slide Number 4Global overview�Steel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2020)Regional overviewSlide Number 7Slide Number 8Evolution of regional shares in steel demand�Steel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2020)Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Pre-COVID MegatrendsPre-COVID trends in the steel industryImpact of the pandemic on megatrendsPossible impact on the steel industryConcluding remarksPresenterSlide Number 18

The global steel industry in the post pandemic era514edba3-1429-47da...16 November 2020 1 The global...

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