The Global Epidemic Simulator Wes Hinsley 1 , Pavlo Minayev 1 Stephen Emmott 2 , Neil Ferguson 1

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The Global Epidemic Simulator Wes Hinsley 1 , Pavlo Minayev 1 Stephen Emmott 2 , Neil Ferguson 1 1 MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London 2 Microsoft Research, Cambridge. Aims: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • The Global Epidemic Simulator

    Wes Hinsley1, Pavlo Minayev1Stephen Emmott2, Neil Ferguson1

    1MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London 2Microsoft Research, Cambridge

  • Aims: To simulate the emergence and spread of an epidemic by explicitly modelling the worlds 6.5 billion people.

    A platform for simulating any directly transmitted pathogen e.g. influenza, smallpox, or SARS.

  • Previous Work

    Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia, (Ferguson et al)Nature 437, Sep 2005

    Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic (Ferguson et al), Nature 442, July 2006

  • Challenges:

    Computational Performance and Memory

    Data availability

    Algorithmic Complexity

    Statistical Validation or Justification

  • Design Create a synthetic population, distributed evenly across different computational nodes. Overlay the world with a grid of patches, and calculate probabilities that people contact each other randomly, from patch-to-patch (rejection/acceptance algorithm) Consider other reasons people may contact each other: households, schools, workplaces, long range travel.

  • The Landscan DatasetA grid of 43200x20880 points, (longitude,latitude)Each point is number of people in a region of around 1km23.5 Gb, but mostly sparse so reducible to 600Mb or less if you need

  • Decomposition ToolCutting the world into similarly sized sections is not trivial. Writing an data decomposition application made the process (slightly) easier.

  • Decomposition ToolThis is how the Europe Node sees the world. Yellow = local (where individuals are stored).Blue = remote patches.

  • Decomposition ToolIn more detail Yellow (local) squares are always 20x20 landscan cells. Blue (remote) squares are usually 320x320 landscan cells, but

  • Decomposition Toolremote squares can be divided further, if the placing of a border requires them to be. Borders are aligned to a grid, resolution 20x20 landscan cells.

  • Decomposition ToolDifferent nodes see the world in differently. But every node knows for every geographical location, which computer has the detailed view.

  • Patch k (20x20 landscan cells)Simulation InitialisationAlthough we assign individuals to ~20km patches, we preserve Landscan resolution by assigning more precise longitude and latitude to individuals.

  • PopulationNk

    Dk,kPatch kPatch k

    For each k qk,k = F(Dk,k)NkZk where F is kernel function Zk is normalisation term

    Main loop: For each infected individual in patch k Find poisson(R0) contacts, Each contact: sample qk,kPick random individual in kUse ratio of F(Dk,k) and F(ri,j) to adjust for qk,k being an over-estimate.

    PopulationNkri,jContact Acceptance/Rejection Algorithm

  • Early Results

  • Early ResultsFor R0=2.0, incubation ~2 days, infectious ~3 days. Seeded in South America

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    651668880

    651692997

    651716593

    651739946

    651762851

    651785378

    651807786

    651829564

    651850952

    651872078

    651893100

    651913605

    651934036

    651953980

    651973410

    651992643

    652011742

    652030512

    652048902

    652066904

    652084774

    652102278

    652119511

    652136557

    652153239

    652169733

    652185753

    652201890

    652217513

    652232893

    652248440

    652263569

    652278385

    652293105

    652307478

    652321790

    652335699

    652349456

    652362989

    652376493

    652389783

    652402640

    652415571

    652428248

    652440564

    652452948

    652464928

    652477021

    652489004

    652500728

    652512208

    652523465

    652534850

    652545870

    652556836

    652567658

    652578252

    652588830

    652599125

    652609228

    652619490

    652629430

    652639210

    652648886

    652658475

    652667937

    652677184

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    652695180

    652704104

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    652900119

    652905954

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    652922852

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    652933799

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    652944162

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    653105344

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    653165146

    653167287

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    653171645

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    653362540

    653363621

    653364707

    653365751

    653366826

    653367874

    Immune

    Days

    Immune Individuals

    america.xls

    Total InfectedImmuneNew InfectionsNew contactsRejectionsCon/InfRej/Inf

    01105681.21.3333333333

    0.2511000000

    0.511000000

    0.7511000000

    111000000

    1.2511000000

    1.511000000

    1.7511000000

    211000000

    2.251602592.51.8

    2.516000000

    2.7515100000

    314200000

    3.2512400000

    3.510600000

    3.759700000

    415736520.8333333333

    4.2515700000

    4.515700000

    4.7515700000

    514810000

    5.25121000000

    5.5141012221

    5.75181024822

    6181000000

    6.25171100000

    6.5171100000

    6.752413391932.1111111111

    727131339313

    7.25261400000

    7.5261400000

    7.75271512221

    8261722110.5

    8.25271812221

    8.5291812723.5

    8.75311822211

    9311911919

    9.2530212110.51

    9.531212110.51

    9.75292300000

    103125141343.25

    10.25312611111

    10.5322611010

    10.75323015851.6

    11393027323.54.5714285714

    11.25453137142.33333333332

    11.55433411902.758.1818181818

    11.75543300000

    12573424320.75

    12.25583411414

    12.5603826230.3333333333

    12.7561393230.66666666671.5

    13604222311.5

    13.2560452311.50.3333333333

    13.5644615350.6

    13.757249512122.41

    14745033511.6666666667

    14.2583534122532.0833333333

    14.5845412020

    14.759755614442.33333333333.1428571429

    1510459311743.66666666676.7272727273

    15.251036637222.33333333333.1428571429

    15.51046924822

    15.75118737192492.714285714313.1052631579

    1613075514322.82.2857142857

    16.2513978912741.33333333336.1666666667

    16.5139803260.66666666673

    16.7514883613252.16666666671.9230769231

    1714990482022.5

    17.251519436520.8333333333

    17.5151105811201.3751.8181818182

    17.75160107611401.83333333333.6363636364

    18181111926782.88888888893

    18.2518211768211.33333333332.625

    18.52031221227612.252.2592592593

    18.75211130818362.252

    1921413558751.69.375

    19.252241389141941.555555555613.8571428571

    19.52451481233602.751.8181818182

    19.75244159710131.42857142861.3

    2026116712251702.08333333336.8

    20.252681781118931.63636363645.1666666667

    20.5274186615142.50.9333333333

    20.752971931931981.63157894743.1612903226

    2131320312271172.254.3333333333

    21.253222121120871.81818181824.35

    21.53352241528861.86666666673.0714285714

    21.7534923918301771.66666666675.9

    223642531530317210.5666666667

    22.2538726215321912.13333333335.96875

    22.53932761421411.51.9523809524

    22.7540629114311052.21428571433.3870967742

    234173051226412.16666666671.5769230769

    23.2542932617331021.94117647063.0909090909

    23.546033620431112.152.5813953488

    23.7547734916331152.06253.4848484848

    2450436531472581.51612903235.4893617021

    24.2552237819321321.68421052634.125

    24.554839426452811.73076923086.2444444444

    24.7557841227503251.85185185196.5

    256034311846932.55555555562.0217391304

    25.2561945527424191.55555555569.9761904762

    25.5679476428442825.0952380952

    25.7571950132663472.06255.2575757576

    2674452728581492.07142857142.5689655172

    26.2577356032633491.968755.5396825397

    26.577858419321601.68421052635

    26.7579961929641872.20689655172.921875

    2782764937662741.78378378384.1515151515

    27.2584968427632112.33333333333.3492063492

    27.588870835662321.88571428573.5151515152

    27.7593072937673821.81081081085.7014925373

    2896476637832632.24324324323.1686746988

    28.251039800591236712.08474576275.4552845528

    28.5107083434722842.11764705883.9444444444

    28.75111987047984442.0851063834.5306122449

    29117289938975232.55263157895.3917525773

    29.251211948511006351.96078431376.35

    29.51314983711586872.22535211274.3481012658

    29.7513731024571154942.01754385964.2956521739

    3014131075551054851.90909090914.619047619

    30.2514901110581355372.32758620693.9777777778

    30.515471170621327032.12903225815.3257575758

    30.7515861232651246601.90769230775.3225806452

    311599129154932061.72222222222.2150537634

    31.2516711338651413692.16923076922.6170212766

    31.517271400741378671.85135135146.3284671533

    31.7517801467791407011.77215189875.0071428571

    3218651521931726201.84946236563.6046511628

    32.25192415947516312332.17333333337.5644171779

    32.5202516519218710692.03260869575.7165775401

    32.75211217279619910102.07291666675.0753768844

    33220418049920411712.06060606065.7401960784

    33.2522801882951808251.89473684214.5833333333

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    33.7523932058862029282.34883720934.5940594059

    342465216612322512181.82926829275.4133333333

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    34.5264423551192319371.94117647064.0562770563

    34.752742244310622810362.15094339624.5438596491

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    35.53072277213628414422.08823529415.0774647887

    35.753163287614626213751.79452054795.2480916031

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    36.253357310814428925312.00694444448.7577854671

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    36.753536337915228112721.84868421054.5266903915

    373644350514330417462.12587412595.7434210526

    37.253734364615430423641.9740259747.7763157895

    37.53800380615929714731.86792452834.9595959596

    37.753926394017434222561.96551724146.5964912281

    384097407819639826712.03061224496.7110552764

    38.254285423219941021512.06030150755.2463414634

    38.54405440219036721251.93157894745.7901907357

    38.754600456522646423812.05309734515.1314655172

    394707474618838129062.02659574477.6272965879

    39.254827491318436421581.97826086965.9285714286

    39.54966512221345021872.11267605634.86

    39.755122532123748431212.04219409286.4483471074

    405204554021841828341.91743119276.7799043062

    40.255374572422646434212.05309734517.3728448276

    40.55554593125252630262.08730158735.752851711

    40.755741612424447529491.94672131156.2084210526

    415979636028456729421.99647887325.188712522

    41.256248656329060942932.17.0492610837

    41.56422680527653938291.95289855077.1038961039

    41.756643707028560747102.12982456147.7594728171

    426817731927654435141.97101449286.4595588235

    42.256959760627454333561.98175182486.1804788214

    42.57220786833865738161.94378698225.8082191781

    42.757512815433368949512.06906906917.1857764877

    437768844130964950662.10032362467.8058551618

    43.258069871336470154121.92582417587.7203994294

    43.58404901738576450711.98441558446.637434555

    43.758649933635667443931.8932584276.5178041543

    449040964136780255452.18528610356.9139650873

    44.259365996738078256652.05789473687.2442455243

    44.597281033243287567512.0254629637.7154285714

    44.7599711072339579656982.01518987347.1582914573

    45103521106741584968102.04578313258.0212014134

    45.25107111145044689156101.99775784756.2962962963

    45.5111631184250998673551.93713163067.4594320487

    45.751168312232527104769241.98671726766.6131805158

    461212512657486100982422.07613168728.1684836472

    46.251257913058492984798328.112804878

    46.51311413527561113484022.02139037437.4091710758

    46.751364214012571117082472.04903677767.0487179487

    471420014527618125193152.02427184477.4460431655

    47.251471115027621119670101.92592592595.8612040134

    47.51529615519643127182841.97667185076.5177025964

    47.751582916076609125482862.05911330056.6076555024

    481641716655678134780961.98672566376.010393467

    48.251719917232744156299582.09946236566.3751600512

    48.51781217878744143698791.93010752696.8795264624

    48.751841518501715137690801.92447552456.5988372093

    4919245191378151661122352.03803680987.3660445515

    49.2520039198668561726114562.01635514026.6373117034

    49.520847205788661740124972.00923787537.182183908

    49.7521723212779061776116431.96026490076.5557432432

    5022517220479161783117381.94650655026.5832865956

    50.25232712289290918181214226.6787678768

    50.524187236929911978133481.99596367316.7482305359

    50.75251262458310402069140421.98942307696.7868535524

    51261512548310762175149902.02137546476.891954023

    51.25273842639511852405156262.0295358656.4972972973

    51.5286572733212362543160232.05744336576.3008257963

    51.75298352828512522476170381.97763578276.8812600969

    52310862929812772616172862.04855129216.6077981651

    52.25321533042513002533189491.94846153857.4808527438

    52.5333553160613802823175182.04565217396.2054551895

    52.75346043281714502856199241.96965517246.9761904762

    53360013403415053024195252.00930232566.4566798942

    53.25372543536015092995193231.9847581186.4517529215

    53.5386103670016173153196571.94990723566.2343799556

    53.75401383805016833361206551.99702911476.145492413

    54415993950017283415217101.97627314816.3572474378

    54.25430934096718283539230441.93599562366.5114439107

    54.5447584251018923852229572.03594080345.959761163

    54.75464924406120243967209421.95998023725.2790521805

    55482204571820634113239111.99369849735.8135181133

    55.25498304751520644113236291.99273255815.7449550207

    55.5517124937622154524260272.04243792335.7530946065

    55.75534265124822174306253401.94226432125.8848118904

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    56.25571245533423744745302871.998736316.3829293994

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    57635346185227385609314722.04857560265.6109823498

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    59826958321035757293404202.045.5423008364

    59.25850778630636077155389691.98364291665.4464011181

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