The German Energiewende: Implications for Europe Climate and Energy Package. Myths and costs in the...
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Transcript of The German Energiewende: Implications for Europe Climate and Energy Package. Myths and costs in the...
The German „Energiewende“:
Implications for Europe
Climate and Energy Package. Myths and costs in the context of the road map 2050
Warsaw, September 27th 2011
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe 2
“Speedier Energiewende”
• Adjusted goals 2020: – Share of Renewables 35 %
– Reduction of electricity consumption 10 %
– Reduction of heat demand in buildings 20 %
• Goals 2050 still valid:– Reduction of CO2-emissions at least 80%
– Electricity production: Renewables 80%
– Reduction of energy consumption 25%
• Phase-out of nuclear power until 2022
• Strengthening the supergrid
• Rising prices: Protecting the eletricity intensive industry
Post Fukushima Energy Policy in Germany
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe 3
West German Energy Programme 1977: Following the French path
Level today
Nuclear Power
Coal
Gas
Lignite
TWh
Year
Foundation of the Green Party
Anti nuclear protest beginns
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe 4
Reality 2011
59%
21%
20%
4%
5%
7%
3%
1%
Coal, Lignite, Gas
Nuclear Power
Wind
Biomass
Water
Solar
Other
German Electricity Production first half year 2011: 283 TWh
Quelle: BDEW, AG Energiebilanzen
Renewables
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe 5
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Coal OilGas
Nuclea
r
Wat
erW
ind
Other
Ren
ewab
les
GW
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
The international context: Growth of production capacities
+ 36 % + 48 %
+ 55 %
+ 153 %
+ 437 %
+ 594 %- 42 %
Eigene Darstellung, Zahlen: Frost und Sullivan 2011
•Capacity growth until 2030: 41 %
•Generation growth until 2030: 63 %
•Rising problems to satisfy electricity demand: Secure supply as a decisive economic factor
Energiewende is not a German
phenomenon
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe 6
Germany has lost its tecnological edge in renewables
Goldwind9%
Enercon7%
Suzlon6%Gamesa
6%
Sinovel6%
Dongfang6%
Sonstige30%
Siemens5%
Vestas15%
General Electric9%
Shares of newly installed global wind capacity 2010
Quelle: VDMA, Dewi
7%
45%
69%
21%
24%34%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004 2010
Others
Germany
China
Share of global solar turnover
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe 7
Nuclear Power phase-out
• Immediate closedown of the seven oldest nuclear plants and Krümmel
• This corresponds to 40 % of German nuclear capacity
• Last three plants will be closedon 31st december 2022
• Christian-liberal coalition returned to the accord between the the socialist-green government and the nuclear plants operators in 2000
• Decision to activate 2.000 MWfossil reserve capacities
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe 8
Is there a European energy market?
• The political goal is to create an EU internal energy market
• This has not been achieved yet
– The grid connections betweenthe member states are only weakly developed
– No European electricity exchange exists
– Therefore there is no European merit order
3.400
3.900
3.200
2.100
1.000
4.000 1.700
1.600
1.400
1.800
3.400
600
600
1.800
Interconnectors` Capacities 2009
F
NL
DK S
CH A
PL/CZ
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe 9
Merit Order: Pricing at an electricity exchange
Base Load Peak LoadMid Load
Nuclear Power, Lignite Coal, Gas Pump Storage, Oil
Demand kWh
Ma
rgin
al
Co
sts
t /
€/M
Wh
Supply Prognosis
Market Price
Spread/Earnings
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe 10
- 3 000 000
- 2 000 000
- 1 000 000
-
+ 1 000 000
+ 2 000 000
Januar
Februar
März
April
Mai
France
Belgium
Netherlands
Denmark
Switzerland
Austria
Poland
Czech Republic
Others
Sum
MWh
Export
Import
Germany has lost its exporter status
• 55 % of missing nuclear production is replaced by better weather and higher solar production
• 45 % is replaced by imports
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe 11
European implications: grid stability
• Germany is now net electricity importer
• After the shutdown of the nuclear power plants with their stable feed-in, the risk of blackouts has risen also for the neighbours
• Especially southern Germany lacks production capacities
• Other countries like Switzerland, Austria, Netherlands, France cannot be sure to get the needed energy
• They will have to strengthen their grids faster to take in more volatile power from Germany
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe 12
European implications: prices
• Germany has enough capacity to supply itself
• But: merit order has shifted towards more expensive electricity production
• Thus, it is more lucrative for power plants from neighbouring countries to sell their electricity in Germany
• Lower prices in Germany may result
• But also higher prices in the neighbour countries because of reduced supply (scarcity signals)
• Prices in France, UK, Netherlands and Belgium have risen by 10 %
74,0
76,0
78,0
80,0
82,0
84,0
86,0
88,0
90,0
92,0
Before Energiewende After Energiewende
GW
closed nuclear plants
reserve
peak demand
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe 13
European implications: CO2-certificates and climate targets
In 2010 nuclear plants produced 43,6 TWh and zero emissions
Same amount pro-duced by fossil plants:
26 Mio tons CO2
400 Mio. Euro extra for CO2-certificates at
15 Euro/tonReplacement by imports: Germany exports emissions
ETS: Higher Prices for all participants
Climate Targets?
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe 14
Neighbours‘ strategies
Tusk: „Coal is back on the agenda“
•Expects severe power shortages
•2016 lack of 3-6 GW
•Look for other suppliers
•Strengthen the grids
•Finish nuclear plant near Kaliningrad
•Threatens Lithuania‘s nuclear plans
•Growing importance in northwestern Europe
•Enlarge the capacity by 50 % until 2018
•Until 2014 already 7 GW are under construction
•Become net exporter
•Enlarge nuclear power plant
•Rising exports in the long run not possible
•No ambition to close German gap
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe 15
EU policy
Immediate reaction after Fukushima: stress tests
- European Council decision in March: all nuclear power plants in the EU have to undergo a risk and safety assessment (stress-tests)
- European Nuclear Safety Regulators Group elaborated common specifications, stress tests started in June
- First results to be presented at European Council in December
EU legislation:
- The EU has competence for: functioning of energy market, interconnection of networks, security of supply, energy efficiency and renewable energies, climate protection
- The EU has NO competence for: choice and exploiting of energy sources, general structure of energy supply in Member States
- Nuclear safety lies inbetween: framework directive but no EU standards
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe 16
Future EU policy
Is the German unilateral reaction to Fukushima the starting point for a real common EU energy policy?
• Secure supply is a European Issue: Nabucco
• Install renewables where it is cheapest
• Creating level playing field for all companies
• EU energy policy as a means to further strengthen integration
Dr. Sebastian Bolay: The German „Energiewende“: Implications for Europe 17
Dr. Sebastian Bolay
Director Energy and climate policy
German Chamber of Inudstry and commerce
Breite Str. 2910178 Berlin
Fon +49(0)30.20308-2202Fax +49(0)30.203085-2202