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The Geostat Hypotheses;
In search of a high resolution foundation for Geostatistics, an interactive response to
operational user needs in a time of transition.
Lars H. [email protected]
European Forum for GeoStatistics (EFGS)
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1.
We need to get the Big Picture
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2.
We need a concrete set of Projects
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1. Making sense of things?2. Survive
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Friend
INTERNET
Pro ContraSUBJECT
OBJECTSender Recipient
2: Axis of power
3: Axis of communication
1: Axis of transformationTraders
Guardians
Reference:Response
Reference:Subject
Reference:Recipient
Reference:Foe
Reference:Friend
Man environmental system (Critical systems only)Time
Formal reference system (GGIISS): Critical systems only
A D A D
Reality:
D. Use
C. Build
B. Design
A. Analyse
A D A D
Man
env
ironm
enta
l sys
tem
(“B
lack
Box
per
spec
tive
to a
ll sy
stem
s)”
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3.
We need a Method
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Friend
OBJECT
INTERSUBJECT
TIME
A.Analyse
D.Manage
B.Design
C.Produce
INTERNET
SCIENTIFIC PRACTICEPRACTICAL SCIENCE
Man environmental system (Critical systems only)
Man
en
viro
nm
enta
l sys
tem
(“B
lack
Bo
x p
ersp
ecti
ve t
o a
ll sy
stem
s)”
Formal reference system (GGIISS): Critical systems only
Reference
The World
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Analysis, Synthesis, Action
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4.
We need a shared Reference
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1. Sociocultural system– Narrative (digital and/or analogue
documents)– Properties (statistics)– Cartographies (geodata)– Reference literature (reference library)
2. Economic system– Narrative (digital and/or analogue
documents) – Properties (statistics)– Cartographies (geodata)– Reference literature (reference library)
Man Environmental Systems
Society Environment
1. Man-made environment– Narrative (digital and/or analogue
documents)– Properties (statistics)– Cartographies (geodata)– Reference literature (reference library)
2. Natural environment– Narrative (digital and/or analogue
documents) – Properties (statistics)– Cartographies (geodata)– Reference literature (reference library)
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(1) 10 000 km
(2) 1 000 km
(3) 100 km
(4) 10 km
(5) 1 km
(6) 100 m
Regionaldevelopment
Global
Local
Spaceship Earth
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5.
We need a data Infrastructure
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Double perspective : (1) ” Interacting wholes” and (2) ”Kits of Parts”
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Dynamic Models
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Narratives
Object models
Texts
References
Semantic modelling
Properties / Statistics
Map Features (points, lines and polygons)
Dynamics (objects and their relationships) over time
Vocabularies
Object / layer strategy for data Infrastructure
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6.
We need to adapt our Statistics
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http://www.ssb.no/en/software/pxmap/
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DiscreteObjects
The problem with statistics?
Needed Given
2. Aggregations toAdm. areas
1. ContinuousPhenomena
Standard Grid infrastructure
Infrastructure of Spatial Data on Grids
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7.
We need an infrastructure for Spatial Analysis
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Why Grids?
A foundation for statistics ”liberated” from administrative areas with:
1. Full coverage (covers land and sea)2. Fixed, neutral system of small statistical areas (does
not change over time)3. Suitable for (cross disciplinary- cross border-) spatial
analysis4. Fully scalable for local and global use 5. Compliant with existing key technologies for data
capture6. Widely used both in Science and Practice
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Warm ocean waters fuel hurricanesWarm ocean waters fuel hurricanes, and there was plenty of warm water for Hurricane Katrina to build up strength once she crossed over Florida and moved into the Gulf of Mexico. This image depicts a 3-day average of actual sea surface temperatures for the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, from August 25-27, 2005. Every area in yellow, orange or red represents 82 degrees Fahrenheit or above. The data came from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) instrument on NASA's Aqua Http://science.hq.nasa.gov/earth-sun/missions/satellite_17.htm
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Spatial analysis
The ”Kit of parts” perspective:
• Required for both Ex Ante and Ex Post purposes!– Analysis, planning, implementation and evaluation of both
direct and indirrect action.
• We are good at: – spatial analysis of the envionment
• We are less good at:– spatial analysis of society
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Outer delineation
Population statistics from the Stockholm region(2004)
Grids derived from coordinates:X,Y=1234567, 1234567 (1m grid.)(code: 12345671234567)X,Y=123456, 123456 (10m grid.)(code: 123456123456)X,Y=12345, 12345 (100m grid.)(code: 1234512345)X,Y=1234, 1234 (1km grid.)(code: 12341234)X,Y=123, 123 (10km grid.)(code: 123123)
.
.Quadtree for Grid=1000mQ1=500mQ2=250mQ3=125m
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Inner differentiation 1
Day time population (2004)Night time population (2004)
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Inner differentiation 2
Day- and night- time population (as continuous phenomena)
1624000 1625000 1626000 1627000 1628000 1629000 1630000 1631000 1632000
6577000
6578000
6579000
6580000
6581000
6582000
6583000
6584000
6585000
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Conclusions
1. “Think global, act local”The Systems perspective: A view to both the whole and the parts!
2. “If you cannot describe it you cannot manage it”Integrated Modeling with Objects in Space and Time: An Integrated model!
3. “Proof of the apple is in the eating”Utility: The ultimate proof of the GSS is its function as a practical tool!
• To change the world
No new information required , only to improve what we have got!Keywords: cooperation, coordination, integration and harmonisation
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Population explosion? Resource constraints?
Climate Change?
Solvable Problems?
Not without GeoStatistics !