THE GAME PLAN-C5 Aviation€¦ · Boeing and Airbus which have monopoly in global market of...
Transcript of THE GAME PLAN-C5 Aviation€¦ · Boeing and Airbus which have monopoly in global market of...
Chapter
5 The Absolute Superiority in Future Aviation
China should develop a global nuclear-powered supersonic airliner for
absolute superiority in future aviation. Without need to refuel, the nuclear-powered
aircraft would have great extended range compared to the conventional jet fuel
powered, and it is especially
important for China which
imports 70% of its oil
consumed. Supersonic airliner
could be faster and more
flexible than subsonic one.
Boeing and Airbus which have
monopoly in global market of
airliner manufacture both focus
on subsonic airliner today.
Retired supersonic airliner
Concorde and Tupolev Tu-144 could be prototypes to integrate with nuclear engine
which already tested by America and Soviet in Cold War, as well as engine of
nuclear submarine.
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Chapter 5. The Absolute Superiority in Future Aviation
I. NUCLEAR-POWERED AIRCRAFT —————————————————-- 3
1. Future Nuclear Airliner ———————————————————-— 4
2. Nuclear Aircraft of The United States —————————————— 7
3. Nuclear Aircraft of the Soviet and Russia ———————————-— 9
II. SUPERSONIC AIRLINER
1. Supersonic Airliner Concorde ————————————————— 10
a. Retirement of Concorde ————————————————-- 12
b. Why Retirement? ———————————————————- 13
2. Next Generation Supersonic Airliner ——————————————- 16
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I. NUCLEAR-POWERED AIRCRAFT
Energy is the most significant challenge for future aviation, especially for
China which imported 70% of its oil consumed. Jet fuel is made from petroleum
primarily, and only 9% of crude oil could be transferred. Fossil energy is expensive
and constraint, but nuclear power provide a feasible solution. Without need to
refuel, the nuclear-powered aircraft would have great extended range compared to
the conventional designs, even almost unlimited range.
China consumes about 12
million barrel oil per day, the third
largest oil consumer behind the
United States and European Union.
However, China has to import its 68%
(2017) oil from Russia, Middle East
and Africa due to its low oil reserve.
Thus it is critical and urgent for China
to develop nuclear power to replace
oil in order to prevent energy crisis. (Chart source: ⽯油对外依存度70%可怕吗?https://
baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1599549775556453471&wfr=spider&for=pc)
Today, subsonic Airbus A380 or Boeing 787 consume jet fuel over 3 liter/100
km per passenger. Supersonic airliner Concorde, which operated in 1976 - 2003,
consume jet fuel 16.7 liter /100 km per passenger which is over 5 times fuel
consumption of subsonic airliner and similar as business jet Gulf-stream G550.
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China DomesticRussiaAngolaSaudi ArabiaIraqOmanIranBrazilVenezuelaKuwaitOther
Fuel Economy ( Liter / 100 km per passenger)
(Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_economy_in_aircraft)
1. FUTURE NUCLEAR AIRCRAFT
In 2014, Lockheed-Martin announced that they were working on developing a
small fusion reactor which is about the size of a jet engine and having the potential
to power aircraft and spaceships. They expected it could operate before 2024.
The project began in 2010, and was publicly presently at the Google Solve for X
forum in 2013. Its prototype was planned to be a 100-megawatt reactor measuring
7 by 10 feet (2.1 by 3.0 m) that could fit on the back of a large truck and would be
about one tenth the size of current reactor prototypes. 100 megawatts is enough to
provide power for 80,000 people. A series of prototypes were constructed to
approach this goal.
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Fusion Reactor of ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) (source: 神秘核聚变能离我们还多远?; http://roll.sohu.com/20151214/n431253325.shtml)
A future nuclear aircraft concept HSP Magnavem has been designed by
Spanish Oscar Vinals. It is equipped with a Compact Fusion Reactor of Lockheed
Martin that powers four hybrid engines with maximum speed over 3 Mach.
Magnavem has two decks, as A-380 of Airbus, with a capacity for 500 passengers.
Future Nuclear Aircraft HSP Magnavem (Source: http://www.tuvie.com/hsp-magnavem-a-4th-state-of-matter-plane-by-oscar-vinals)
Magnavem’s hybrid engine is a turbine-
based combined cycle system to use a turbine
engine at low speeds and a scramjet engine at
high speeds, while the turbine and ramjet
engines share common inlet and nozzle, with
different airflow paths in between. The hybrid
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engine has been applied in Lockheed Martin SR-71 between 1964 and 1998.
Picture: SR-71 (Source: internet)
Comparison between HSP Magnavem, Airbus A380 and Boeing 747 (Source: http://www.behance.net/ovisdesign)
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2. NUCLEAR AIRCRAFT OF THE UNITED STATES
The United States developed the nuclear-powered aircraft between 1946 and
1961 in two program Nuclear Energy for the Propulsion of Aircraft (NEPA) and
Aircraft Nuclear Propulsion (ANP) by the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Atomic Energy
Commission. They pursued two different systems for nuclear-powered jet engines,
the Direct Air Cycle concept, which was developed by General Electric, and Indirect
Air Cycle, which was developed by Pratt & Whitney.
Two B-36 bombers were modified to become the testing platform, one was to
be used for studying shielding requirements for an airborne reactor, while the
another was planned to be rebuilt as a nuclear-powered aircraft. The B-36 bomber
flew a total of 47 times testing an airborne operational nuclear reactor over West
Texas and Southern New Mexico.
One Modified B-36 Bomber Testing a Airborne Nuclear Reactor (Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear-powered_aircraft)
The first operation of a nuclear aircraft engine occurred in 1956 using a
modified General Electric J47 turbojet engine. Other two experimental engines
powered by nuclear reactors, HTRE3 and HTRE1, are successful in the Oak Ridge
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National Laboratory. But the program was cancelled before the nuclear-powered
aircraft, named X-6, was completed. HTRE 3 and HTRE 1 are on display at Idaho
National Laboratory near Arco, Idaho today.
Experimental Reactors for Nuclear Aircraft Nuclear Ramjet Engine HTRE 3 left and HTRE 1 right The "Tory-IIC" prototype
(Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear-powered_aircraft) (source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Pluto)
In 1957, U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission contracted
with the Lawrence Radiation Laboratory to study the feasibility of applying heat
from nuclear reactors to ramjet engines. This research became known as Project
Pluto. This program was to provide engines for an unmanned cruise missile,
Supersonic Low Altitude Missile. The program succeeded in producing two test
engines, which were operated on the ground. The project was canceled by the
Pentagon because it was considered too provocative.
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3. NUCLEAR AIRCRAFT OF SOVIET AND RUSSIA
Soviet developed its nuclear-powered aircraft between 1955 and 1965. A
Tupolev Tu-95 bomber was modified to testing airborne nuclear reactor, named
Tupolev Tu-119. The Tu-119 would have been powered by both nuclear-fueled and
kerosene-fueled turboprop engines: two Kuznetsov NK-14 nuclear engines inboard,
fed with heat from a fuselage-mounted reactor and two kerosene-fed Kuznetsov
NK-12 turboprops outboard. Soviet chose to focus on the direct-cycle system
testing ramjets, jet engines and even turboprops. The Tu-119 completed 34
research flights. However, the emerging potential of the intercontinental ballistic
missiles made the nuclear-powered aircraft superfluous, and it was stopped in
1965.
Tupolev Tu-95 Bomber (Source: internet)
Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russia had developed a new,
nuclear-powered cruise missile with nuclear warhead that can evade air and missile
defense and hit any point on the globe in his annual State of the Nation address on
1 March, 2018. According to the statements its first flight test occurred in 2017. It
was claimed to feature a small-size nuclear-powered engine that can be placed
inside the hull of cruise missile and guarantee a range of flight ten times greater
than that of other missiles.
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II. SUPERSONIC AIRLINER
The supersonic airliner is faster and more flexible than subsonic airliner. In
fact, supersonic airliner Concorde which made by France and Britain entered
business service for 27 years between 1976 and 2003. Concorde could fly 4,488 mi
(7,222 km) with a maximum cruise speed over twice the speed of sound at Mach
2.04 (1,354 mph or 2,180 km/h).
1. SUPERSONIC AIRLINER CONCORDE
The Concorde is a British - French turbojet-powered supersonic passenger
airliner. It just took about 3 hours from New York to Paris with seating for up to 128
passengers, if refilled at one-stop, it can reach any point of earth within 10 hours.
Concord entered service in 1976 and continued flying for next 27 years until 2003.
It could fly 4,488 mi (7,222 km) with a maximum speed over twice the speed of
sound at Mach 2.04 ( 1,354 mph or 2,180 km/h), in contrast, the cruise speed of all
subsonic airliners are below 621 mph (1000 km/h) including Boeing 747 with cruise
speed up to 570 mph (918 km/h), and A330 with cruise speed up to 567 mph (913
km/h). Picture: British Airway’s Concorde In 1968.(Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concorde)
Major Aircraft Velocity Comparison (source: wikipedia.com)
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Aircraft Speed /Mach
France and Britain jointly developed
and manufactured the Concorde under an
Anglo-France Treaty, and it flown at first time
in 1969. Concorde is one of only two
supersonic transports to have been operated
commercially, and another is the Soviet-built
Tupolev Tu-144. Total twenty Concorde were
built for Air France and British Airways. Concorde flew regular transatlantic flights
between London, Paris, and New York, Washington, in less than half the time of
subsonic airliners. Picture: Concorde Landing at Farnborough in 1974. (Source: https://
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concorde)
British Airways Concorde Interior Concorde Flight Deck Layout (Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concorde)
Soviet had developed its supersonic airliner Tupolev Tu-144 which entered
business service between 1977 and 1983. Tu-144 was designed by Tupolev design
bureau in Soviet, and it is very similar with Concorde resulting from information
exchanges both open and secretly. It could fly 4,000 mi (6,500km) with cruise
speed up to Mach 2 (1,320 mph, 2,125 km/
h). Tu-144 had its first flight in December
1968, tow months before the flight of the
Concorde. It was used for passenger
transport only in 1977 and 1978, but
remained in use as a cargo aircraft until
1983. Picture: Tupolev Tu-144 in 1969 (Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-144)
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a. RETIREMENT OF CONCORDE
The first Concorde entered business service in 1976. Total 20 Concorde was
built and all 12 Concorde, which were still on business flight, retired in 2003.
The Concorde was the safest operational passenger airliner in the world for
24 years with zero death until the only fatal air crash on 25 July 2000. Flight 4590 of
Air France planned to fly from Paris to New York, but caught fire when taking off. It
crashed into a hotel in Gonesse, France and killed all 100 passengers and 9 crew
members on board, and 4 people on the ground.
The official investigation indicates the crash was caused by a metallic strip
that had fallen from a Continental Airlines DC-10 taking off minutes earlier. The
metallic strip punctured a tyre on Concorde’s left main wheel bogie during take-off,
and then the tyre exploded, and a piece of rubber hit the fuel tank, which caused a
fuel leak and led to a fire. According to
John Hutchinson who had served as
Concorde captain for 15 years in British
Airways, the fire on its own should have
been eminently survivable, and the pilot
should have been able to fly his way out of
trouble. However, in order to respond to
fire alarm, the crew turned off one of two
engines, which resulted in power loss in take-off. Then the Concorde veered off
course on the runway, which reduced takeoff speed below the crucial minimum.
The aircraft had a rapid pitch-up then a sudden descent, rolling left and crashing
tail-low into a hotel near the Paris - Charles De Gaulle Airport. Picture: Flight 4590
During Takeoff. (Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concorde)
Safety improvements were made after crash, including more secure electrical
controls, Kevlar (a high-strength materials) lining on the fuel tanks and specially
developed burst-resistant tiers. Concorde with safety modifications continued to fly
until 2003.
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b. WHY RETIREMENT?
The retirement of Concorde resulted from monopoly of global aircraft
manufacturing by Boeing and Airbus. The Fight 4590 crush couldn’t become the
reason to retire all the Concorde, although the crush is horrible and miserable.
Let us review the hall losses accidents of other three subsonic airlines, the
Boeing 747, Airbus 330 and Boeing 737. They are still on business service although
many hall losses accidents occurred in the previous decades. The Boeing 747 is an
American wide-body commercial jet airliner and cargo aircraft. It entered service in
1970. The Boeing 747 has been involved in 146 aviation accidents and incidents,
including 61 hull-loss accidents which resulted in 3722 fatalities. The last crush was
Turkish Airlines Flight 6491 in January 2017.
The Airbus A330 is a medium to long range wide-body jet airliner. It entered
service in 1994. A330 had been involved in 28 major aviation occurrences,
including 11 hull-loss accidents resulting in 339 fatalities.
The Boeing 737 is a short to medium range twin jet narrow-body airline. It
entered service in 1968. Boeing 737 had been involved in 368 aviation accidents
and incidents including 184 hull-loss accidents resulting in 4,862 fatalities.
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Hull - Loss Air Crash Fatalities
Airbus A330 Boeing 747
Boeing and Airbus monopoly subsonic airliner manufacturing in the world,
and supersonic Concorde became a threat to their business. Their monopoly result
in stagnate global aviation and retirement of Concorde.
Concorde had to retire because Airbus stopped maintenance support for
Concorde since 2003. Airbus is the result of consolidation of European aerospace
manufacturers including Concorde’s manufactures in France and Britain. Thus it
was the only one company can manufacture Concorde and provide maintenance
support.
Consolidations and centralization took place in
aviation over the last few decades. More than 5000
mergers and acquisitions with a total known-value of
about 580 billion USD were announced in aircraft
industry worldwide between 1988 and 2010. Two
dominating airliner manufacturers, Boeing for 53% and
Airbus for 41%, jointly account for 94% of total airliner
market with worth over 110 billion USD in 2016. The
Boeing is a American company with headquarter in
Chicago, and the Airbus is a European multinational
corporation with its main civil airplane business in Toulouse of France.
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Global Airliner Manufacturers
Largest In Service Mainline Fleet
(Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airliner)
Manufacturer 2016 orders and deliveries 2019-2023 projection
deliveries values ($bn) net orders backlog deliveries values ($bn)
Boeing 726 57.8 563 5,660 4,737 (42.9%) 764.8 (50.7%)
Airbus 685 45.5 711 6,845 4,405 (39.9%) 682.8 (45.2%)
Embraer 108 2.9 39 444 484 (4.4%) 22.1 (1.5%)
Bombardier 81 1.9 162 437 475 (4.3%) 8.1 (0.5%)
ATR 73 1.5 36 236 400 (3.6%) 9.7 (0.6%)
Other 31 0.5 72 1,080 532 (4.8%) 22.4 (1.5%)
Total 1,704 110.1 1,583 14,702 11,033 1,510
Model 2018 2017 2016 2015
Airbus A320 family 7,132 6,838 6,516 6,041
Boeing 737 NG 6,373 5,968 5,556 5,115
Boeing 777 1,422 1,387 1,319 1,258
Airbus A330 1,269 1,214 1,169 1,093
Boeing 737 Classic/original 818 890 931 1,006
Boeing 767 740 744 738 762
Boeing 787 696 554 422 288
Boeing 757 669 689 688 737
Boeing 717/MD-80/90/DC-9 516 607 653 668
Boeing 747 475 489 503 558
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2. NEXT GENERATION SUPERSONIC AIRLINER
A Tu-144 was used as a testbed for
next generation supersonic airliner called
the High Speed Civil Transport in 1990s.
Tupolev Design, NASA (National Aeronautic
and Space Administration of the United
States), Rockwell and later Boeing had
involved in this research program. They
wanted to develop a next generation
supersonic airliner that would be
environmentally acceptable and economically feasible. The aircraft was baselined
to cruise at Mach 2.4, or more than twice the speed of sound, intended to cross the
Atlantic or the Pacific Ocean in half the time of subsonic aircraft. It was also
intended to be fuel efficient, carry 300 passengers, and to allow customers to buy
tickets at a price only slightly higher than those of subsonic aircraft. A Tu-144 was
taken out of storage and modified at a cost of USD 350 million. The upgraded
Tu-144 made 27 flights during 1996 and 1997, and they were successful
technically. However, the project was cancelled in 1999. Picture: High Speed Civil
Transport. (source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Speed_Civil_Transport)
As well as, Japan Aerospace and Exploration Agency (JAXA) has started to
design another next generation supersonic airliner which aimed to carry about 300
passengers, fly at speed Mach 2 (1,522 mph, 2,450 km/h), and have about 9,000
mi (14,400 km) range. An 11.5-meter prototype was tested in 2005.
Boeing unveiled a Mach 5 (3,375 mph; 5,400 km/h) hypersonic passenger
transport concept at the AIAA (American Institute of Aeronautic and Astronautics)
2018 conference. It could cross the Atlantic in 2 hours or the Pacific in 3 hours, and
would enable same-day return flights. The aircraft use a titanium airframe, and its
capacity would be smaller than a Boeing 737 but larger than a long-range business
jet.
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Boeing Hypersonic Transport Concept (Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supersonic_transport#Previous_concepts)
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