The GAIA Hypothesis and it‘s role in Earth System Modelling
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The GAIA Hypothesis and it‘s role in Earth System Modelling
GCM – 1. Semester: Physical Fundamentals of GC, Juliane GnauQu
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The release of this image had an effect in leading to the proposition that the Earth is alive.
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The GAIA Hypothesis and it‘s role in Earth System Modelling
• Earth System Science • Earth System Modelling• The GAIA Hypothesis• Recent research• “Official proof of acceptance”
Content
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Earth System Science
• … treats the entire Earth as a system• this system evolves as a result of positive and negative feedbacks between many different systems• gives scientists the ability to explain the past and possible future behaviour of the Earth system
ms: See the comlete version of the so-called Bretherton Diagram (Francis P. Bretherton, 1986)
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What is Earth System Modelling?
Interacting components on the environment are modeled in unison to understand how feedbacks between the components influence the properties of the whole system.
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Gaia theories explain the behaviour of the Earth system in terms of the influence of the biosphere
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Development of Earth System Modelling
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ms: That is only half the truth. It shows only the natural systems approach to climate modelling.
The whole Earth System Modelling would comprise the socio-economic modelling as well, like: world economic system, national and international institutions and actors, ….
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Goals of Earth System Modelling
•to predict the future of the planet Earth • instrument to take appropriate actions in the future within the framework of future management of the Earth
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The GAIA Hypothesis
a complex entity involving the Earth's biosphere,
atmosphere, oceans, and soil; the totality constituting
a feedback or cybernetic system which seeks an optimal physical and
chemical environment for life on this planet
James Lovelock‘s definition:
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The Initial Hypothesis
• biomass modifies conditions on planet• hospitality = homeostasis• homeostatic feedback system operated by the biota leads to stabilization of global temperature and chemical composition
Global control system: • surface temperature• atmospheric composition• ocean salinity
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The Development of the Hypothesis
• 1960: Ecological theory: the Earth as an organism• Core assumption of hypothesis: „Lives of a cell“ • Scientifically formulated by J. Lovelock• Supported by scientific experiments
+ providing useful predictions Theory•1972: "Gaia as seen through the atmosphere" • Until 1975 almost totally ignored• 1979: book “Gaia: A new look at life on Earth”
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The Development of the Hypothesis
• Acception took many years• 1980’s: still confusion what the GAIA
theory really is• Criticism:1. view is too theological2. lack of scientific evidence3. GAIA is not a living organism
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• response to criticism = math. Daisyworld proof for existance of feedback mechanisms
• Lovelock‘s reframing as geophysiology• growing acceptance of Earth System Science
silenced many critics
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The Development of the Hypothesis
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• Gaia Theory has developed considerably • 1998 book: “The Symbiotic Planet”(L. Margulis)
"Gaia is not an organism", but "an emergent property of interaction among organisms". New definition: “…the series of interacting ecosystems that compose a single huge ecosystem at the Earth's surface.“• both theories are valid today
Recent developments
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The GAIA Hypothesis
• two GAIA Conferences1. 1988: the Gaian teological views or "types" of
Gaia Theory2. 2000: specific mechanisms:
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• has Gaia changed in time?• how can the feedbacks influence the climate?• how can mechanisms be modeled?
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The GAIA Hypothesis - Summary
• the Gaia hypothesis is modified • biosphere = ecosystem• the Gaia hypothesis is consistent with a modern vision of global ecology, relaying on the concepts of biosphere and biodiversity • not a theory anymore (?)
• part of Earth System Science• scientific model in geo-biosphere• non-scientists: self-regulating Earth
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ms: In common usage, people often use the word theory to signify a conjecture, an opinion, or a speculation. In science however, a theory is a proposed description, explanation, or model of the manner of interaction of a set of natural phenomena, capable of predicting future occurrences or observations!
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The GAIA Hypothesis
• modelling real biochemical cycles of Earth Daisyworld-like regulation
• today: simple feedback mechanisms accepted carbon dioxide
• more difficult homeostatic mechanisms ? planetary albedo
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“Official proof of acceptance“
• Amsterdam declaration of the scientific communities of 4 international global change research programmes:
• threat of significant climate change • increasing human modification of global environment findings and statements seem to be fully consistent with the Gaia theory
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The Earth System behaves as a single, self-regulating system comprised of physical, chemical, biological and human components.
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“Global change cannot be understood in terms of a simple cause-effect paradigm. Human-driven changes cause multiple effects that cascade through the Earth System in complex ways.”
“The interactions and feedbacks between the component parts are complex and exhibit multi-scale temporal and spatial variability.”
“These effects interact with each other and with local- and regional-scale changes in multidimensional patterns that are difficult to understand and even more difficult to predict.”
“Official proof of acceptance“
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The GAIA Hypothesis and it‘s role in Earth System Modelling
Thank you for listening
Sources:• Wikipedia• Max-Planck-Institut• http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/earthsystem/nutshell/index.html
ms: Richard Mabey reviews The revenge of Gaia by James Lovelock:
“After Hurricane Katrina, a black Gaian joke went the rounds, couched in White House newspeak: Successful mission against the Gulf of Mexico oilfields. Some collateral damage in New Orleans.”
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Comments for Juliane Gnau from Manfred Stock
1. To be finished .....