The FY 2014 Budget Proposals and Where Do We Go From Here
Transcript of The FY 2014 Budget Proposals and Where Do We Go From Here
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The FY 2014 Budget Proposals and Where Do We Go from Here
Dr. Jason J. Fichtner Senior Research Fellow Mercatus Center April 30, 2013
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What we’re going to discuss today: • Where we are: CBO baseline – past, present and future
• What’s driving our fiscal condi?on • Comparison of FY14 budgets • The real boFom line
Overview
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CBO’s Baseline Projection - 2012
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CBO’s Baseline Projection - 2013
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CBO’s 2013 Outlook: Budget Surplus and Deficit
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U.S. Government Debt
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The Real Source of the Problem
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Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security
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Defense and Non-Defense Spending Squeezed as Autopilot Programs Explode
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Medicare Costs Over Time
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State and Federal Medicaid Spending
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Social Security Trust Funds Annual Cash Flows
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Social Security Trust Fund Exhaustion
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Interest Costs Crowd Out Other Government Spending
Source: Peter G. Peterson Foundation http://www.pgpf.org/Special-Topics/Spending-primer.aspx Constant 2009 Dollars based on OMB , GAO and OMB data Author’s Calculations for FY2011
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A Huge Deficit Would Remain, Even If Any One of These Steps Were Taken:
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Source: Office of Management and Budget, The New York Times Based on fiscal year 2010 appropriations and disclosure reports from members of Congress who received spending earmarks for special projects.
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2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
$ Billion
s
Balancing the Budget with Spending Restraint
CBO Baseline Revenues
Revenues 19% GDP
Revenues 18% GDP
Revenues 17% GDP
Spending Freeze
1% Reduc?on
1% Spending
2% Spending
Author's Calcula?ons based on CBO February 2013 Budget and Economic Outlook. Revenues for 2010 -‐ 2012 are Actual; Revenues for 2013 on based on CBO GDP figures are Author's Calcula?ons
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Any Ques?ons???
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