EN 3 • 19/04/23 • © Astrium 1

The future role of The future role of satcom in civil aviationsatcom in civil aviationATN 2002, London, September 25th, 2002ATN 2002, London, September 25th, 2002

© AstriumATN 2002 • London, September 23 to 25, 20022

Challenges for the air transport industry – 1

1) Capacity of overall ATM “system” limits air traffic growth:

• 2015: twice as many flights as in 1997

• Already today: 30% of all delays due to capacity shortages

• Yearly cost for capacity-related delays: €6.3bn

2) Safety demands will rise with capacity increases:

• Despite air traffic growth: absolute number of incidents must be kept stable or even improved

• No additional airspace capacity without improved safety

© AstriumATN 2002 • London, September 23 to 25, 20023

Challenges for the air transport industry – 2

3) Economic pressures leading to drive for efficiencies:

• Seat utilisation

– Strongly linked to safety and security

• Minimisation of flight times, fast turnarounds

– Maximise use of all resources (runways, terminals, airspace, ATC, spectrum….)

• Optimum routes

• Optimum flight levels

4) Security pressures cyclic depending on world political situation:

• On-board security

• Homeland security

© AstriumATN 2002 • London, September 23 to 25, 20024

Cockpit services

Cabin services

ATC

AOC

AAC

APC

Classification of aircraft communications

“AirComms”

Air Traffic Control

Airline Operational Communications

Airline Administrative Communications

Airline Passenger Communications

© AstriumATN 2002 • London, September 23 to 25, 20025

Increasing confidentiality

Increasing public responsibility

Increasing integrity

Lower transmission delay

Lower message size/data volume

Higher service cost

Increasing likelihood of service

Comparison of aircraft communications

Cockpit Cabin

ATS AOC AAC APC

“Aircomms” LegendATS - Air Traffic ServicesAOC - Airline Operational Comm’sAAC - Airline Administrative Comm’sAPC - Airline Passenger Comm’s

narrow-band broadband

public private

safety related non-safety related

all airlines airline internal

realtime n./a.“near-realtime”

mass marketniche market

“ATM comms”

market success questionablestrong need

“APC comms”

© AstriumATN 2002 • London, September 23 to 25, 20026

Future importance of aircraft communications

In the future, there will be more communications from and to the aircraft.• Passenger communications

To make flying more attractive, airlines will sooner or later offer:– Telephony (Voice, Fax, Modem, ...)– E-Mail, Internet– Multimedia, live TV, ...

• Air Traffic ManagementTo increase airspace capacity and safety, much more data communications will be needed, e.g. for:

– Dependent surveillance methods– Collaborative decision making– Common information network– Airline operational communications

© AstriumATN 2002 • London, September 23 to 25, 20027

Satcom for aviation

Coverage• Satellites are the only reasonable means to realise a seamless global

coverage on all altitudes (incl. ground)• Issues: High density areas, coverage for high latitudes

Bandwidth• APC: satellites are the only reasonable means to provide the

bandwidth required• ATM: Traditional communication means (e.g. VHF) are about to reach

their capacity limitsCost

• Added value must be higher than cost

© AstriumATN 2002 • London, September 23 to 25, 20028

Satcom in APC

Today:• Inmarsat and Iridium used (mainly for voice)• High price, very low bit rate for modem connections

Under development:• Connexion, AFIS, Inmarsat IV• Very hot topic until Sept. 11th 2001, “comeback” expected

Future visions:• “Internet in the sky” (e.g. E-Mail, VPN)

– Could become successful if price < 10€/flight (flat rate)• Voice communications

– Could become successful if price < 2€/min (=GSM incl. roaming)• Entertainment, e.g. live TV

– Success uncertain due to legal and market issues

© AstriumATN 2002 • London, September 23 to 25, 20029

Suitability of APC satcom systems for ATM

• Bandwidth (+)– Bandwidth required for ATC, AOC (and AAC) is negligible compared to APC

• Probability of materialisation (-)– It is not yet certain whether dedicated APC satcom systems will materialise within

the next 10 years

• Coverage (-)– All satcom systems for APC are GEO systems that do not provide coverage for

high latitudes.

• Cost (-)– Reliability and availability requirements of ATM would lead to very high

investments

• Service Mix (-)– Mixing safety related and non-safety related services has implications for

certifiability

© AstriumATN 2002 • London, September 23 to 25, 200210

Satcom in ATM

Today, the following requirements for an ATM communications system are known:

• Permanent global availability, special weight on high-density areas• Extremely high reliability• Low data rate• Often short response times• “Party line” capabilities• “Air-to-air” capabilities

Ways to attack the cost issue:• “Design-to-cost” • Reasonable business concept on the other hand

– Attractive service mix– Public involvement justified

© AstriumATN 2002 • London, September 23 to 25, 200211

Satellite-based CNS

• Satellites allow integration of navigation and communications and thus (dependent) surveillance

• In the field of navigation, users have been quick to embrace satellite technology thanks to GPS

– Galileo offers a model of the future – “compatible” with GPS, but providing design, operational and institutional redundancy (prerequisite for certifiability) together with better service quality

• Are similar models applicable to communications and surveillance?– Gate-to-gate communications and surveillance are both essential for accurate 4D

trajectory based management– ATS communications traffic is only a small proportion of the total– Wide mix of public and private operators today

The issues are complex and there are no easy answers!The cost-benefit ratio must be proven in high-density areas.

© AstriumATN 2002 • London, September 23 to 25, 200212

Key to success?

Many good technologies have come and gone and not been adopted; they have usually failed on:

• Transition planning – how to get from the old to the new

• Unproven benefit to cost ratio

t

old

new

tra

nsiti

on

Motto: “Evolutionary approach to a revolutionary system”

Some lessons from history:• The old and the new must be able to operate alongside each

other

• A clear transition path from old to new must be mapped

• The new must offer clear benefits and be affordable

• Payback to the airlines for their investment must be within 2-3 years

• The solution must be global (European / U.S cooperation essential)

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Backup slidesBackup slides

© AstriumATN 2002 • London, September 23 to 25, 200214

Integration of satellite navigation and communication

Positiondetermination

Positionreporting