The Future of Transport Policy: was Einstein right?
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Transcript of The Future of Transport Policy: was Einstein right?
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Inaugural Lecture Professor Greg Marsden18 March 2014
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“We can't solve problems by
using the same kind of thinking we used when
we created them.”
Georgios Kollidas -Shutterstock.com
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testing-Shutterstock.com
89% of lost time is in urban areas – The Eddington Review
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‘New’ Challenges: Climate ChangeSource: Network Rail
Transport contributes 23% of global CO2 emissions - IEA
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15 of our largest urban areas will not meet safe air quality standards by 2020
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Road fatalities are still the leading cause of death for 5-19 year olds
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28.5% of the UK population do not get 30 minutes moderate exercisePER WEEK!!!
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A characterization of Problem ImportanceImportance
Time1980s 1990s 2000s 2010->
Economy & Congestion
Air quality
Climate Mitigation
Resilience
Safety
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The same kind of thinking...
How we thinkabout demand
Infrastructureas main solution
TechnologicalOptimism
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The demand for travel
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Investment for growth
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A New Realism
0
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60
80
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120
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1999 congestion Reference Case2031
Infrastructureschemes only
2031
Infrastructureschemes & road
user charges2031
Infrastructureschemes, roaduser charges &
behaviouralchange 2031
Was
ted
ve
hic
le h
ou
rs p
er
ye
ar
(000
,00
0s
)
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Curious Trends
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Or more of the same?
Image Courtesy of Professor Phil Goodwin
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Technological Optimism
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The Role of the State
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Image from Johnson et al., 2012
Not connected directly but....
RAC Foundation (2012)
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Source: Phil Goodwin
?
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Lifecourse
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Seasons
Janu
ary
Febr
uary
Mar
ch
April
May
June July
Augu
st
Sept
embe
r
Oct
ober
Nove
mbe
r
Dece
mbe
r
0
50
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Med
ian
daily
tota
l cou
nt o
f cyc
lists
Source: Sustrans
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Concluding comments