The Future of the Tropical Forests of Amazonia · The Future of the Tropical Forests of Amazonia...
Transcript of The Future of the Tropical Forests of Amazonia · The Future of the Tropical Forests of Amazonia...
The Future of the Tropical Forests of Amazonia
Carlos A. NobreMinistry of Science, Technology and Innovation of Brazil
UNESCOParis, 9 December 2014.
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The Amazon in the ‘Anthropocene’: The 'Great Amazonian’ Acceleration
Brondizio 2013
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Risks to the Natural Systems in AmazoniaRisks to the Natural Systems in Amazonia
Does the 'great acceleration ’ globally and regionally pose a risk to the ecosystems of Amazonia?
Forestsp rovide important economic and ecological services …
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© Celestia
Amazonian Ecosystems Service• Maintenance of global carbon cycle (15% of global N
for anthropogenic CO2)• Powerful hydrology (20% of fresh water flow into the glob• Biodiversity richness (> 10% of species)• Climate stabilization (key heat source for the atmosphere)
• Helps to maintain cultural and etnic diversity (ovepopulations, language diversity)
04.Feb.2013 06:00 UTC
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Amazon Biomass is increasing over time
(green arrows)
Is this a CO2“fertilization” effect?
Phillips et al. 2009 Science
Amazon: a sink of about 0.5 ton C/ha/year over 350 MtonC/year
But, the reality of agriculturalexpansion in the Amazon is
one of fire and forest destruction …
Ecosystems of Amazonia ‐ environmental drivers of change
Land CoverChange
FireClimateChange
ClimateExtremes
Complex Earth System Models are needed to study all these interacting and simultaneous drivers
Anthropogenic and Natural Drivers of Environmental Change in Amazonia
GLOBAL WARMINGWarming of 0.8°C in Amazonia (Victoria et al., 2004. J Climate); 3°‐4°C by 2100 (IPCC AR5, 2013)!
Can global warming have a discernible effect in the Amazon?
Projected distribution of natural biomes in South America for 2090‐2099 from 15 AOGCMsfor the A2 emissions scenarios, calculated by using CPTEC‐INPE PVM.
Consequences of Climate Change on the Biome distribution in Tropical South America
Salazar, Nobre et al., 2007 GRL
Model Projections: Tropical rainforest will be replaced by
savannah!18% to 48% by the end of
the 21st Century
What is going on right now in terms of climate variability and change in the Amazon?
Rio Manaquiri, a 150 km de Manaus
2005
2010 2014
2012
Record‐breaking droughts (2005, 2010)and floods (2009, 2012, 2014)
Is this an expected manifestation of natural climate variability?
Or could it be an early sign of climate change due to global warming?
What is going on right now in terms of climate variability and change in the Amazon?
Rio Manaquiri, a 150 km de Manaus
2005
2010 2014
2012
Record‐breaking droughts (2005, 2010)and floods (2009, 2012, 2014)
Changes in extreme flow in Amazon River (medium confidence, major
contribution from climate change) (IPCC/ WGIIAR5, 2014)
Total deforested area (clear‐cutting) is 765,000 km2
in Brazilian Amazonia (20%) (INPE, 2014)
Anthropogenic and Natural Drivers of Environmental Change in Amazonia
DROUGHTS FOREST FIRES
DEFORESTATIONGLOBAL WARMING
Warming of 0.8°C in Amazonia (Victoria et al., 2004. J Climate); 3°‐4°C by 2100 (IPCC AR5, 2013)!
Forest fire frequency ↑ (Nepstad et al., 2006)
What are the synergistic effect of global warming + deforestation +
fires?
Tropical Seasonal Forest
Savannah
Tropical Evergreen Forest
Projected distribution of natural biomes in South America
Source: Sampaio et al., 2014, unpublished.
more than 2/3 of the models used ≥ 6 models) coincide for 2050 from 9 Earth System Models for the RCP 8.5 emission scenarios
Climate Change Scenario of IPCC AR5 (RCP8.5) in 2050
Combined EffectsClimate Change + Deforestation + Fire + CO2 ‘Fertilization’ (25%)
Deforestation at 20% + Fire effect
Forest
Savannah
20% Def.+ Fire
=
+
CO2 ‘Fertilization’ Effect at 25%
+
Fraction of the remaining forest area for the entire AmazoniaClimate change projections – CMIP5 – 9 Earth System Models (ESM)
2025 20252050 2050Source: Sampaio et al., 2014, unpublished.
20%
40%
50%
DEFOR.ONLY
CC ONLY2050
RCP 2.6
RCP 4.5
RCP 8.5
CC+20% Defor.+Fire2050
RCP 2.6
RCP 4.5
RCP 8.5
Projected reductions of over 50% of Forest cover by 2050!
IPCC AR5 WGII, 2014
Maximum speeds at which species can move across landscapes
Based on observations and models; vertical axis on left and compared with speeds at which temperatures are
projected to move across landscapes (climate
velocities for temperature; vertical axis
on right).Trees can move only a few km per decade and would be 'outraced’ by the climate change velocity
(for Amazonia, at least 20 km/decade for RCP 4.5)
Tropical forest in equilibrium with currentclimate: one stableequilibrium state
Savanna state triggered by climate change and/ordeforestation: two stableequilibrium states
Stability of savanna enhanced by increased droughts and fires
‘Tipping points’ in Amazonia
Environmental variation
Eq
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Cardoso and Borma, 2010Borma, Nobre and Cardoso, 2013
Quantifying ‘Tipping points’ in AmazoniaBi‐stability with two stable states:
Forest and forest‐savanna
ΔT > 3.5 CDeforest. > 40%
ObservationsΔT ≈ 1 C
Deforestation ≈ 20%Lengthening of dry season (?)
Dubreuil et al, Environ Monit Assess (2012) 184:877–891
DecemberJanuaryFebruary
MarchAprilMay
JuneJuly
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SeptemberOctoberNovember
32 years
Decreasing trends for the SON period, i.e., the end of the dry season and the
beginning of the rainy season.
REGIONAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONS: TEMPERATURE CHANGE FOR THE AMAZON
December‐February Temperature Change for the Amazon
June ‐August Temperature Change for the Amazon
For high emission scenarios, temperature
Increase exceeds 4 C in the Amazon
‘Tipping points’ in AmazoniaBi‐stability with two stable states:
Forest and forest‐savanna
ΔT > 3.5 CDeforest. > 40%
Even if tropical countries cut deforestation to zero,
uncheked global warming will wreak havoc to the Amazon forest!
Three different methods have been used to estimate land‐use change emissions, indicated here by different shades of greySource: CDIAC; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Fossil fuel emissions continue to go up …
% of land‐use change emissions to global emissions: 36% in 1960, 19% in 1990, 8% in 2013
Total global emissions: 39.4 ± 3.4 GtCO2in 2013, 42% over 1990
Science‐police interface for reducing deforestation
Global Fossil Fuel and Land Use Change Emissions of GHG
Policies to reduce Amazon Deforestation
PRODES/INPE
2004Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the
Legal Amazon (PPCDAM).Coordinated activities among government agencies;
Introduction of real‐time remote‐sensing forest monitoring technology
Extensive expansion of protected territories.
2008Targeting of priority municipalities ‐
prevention, monitoring, and combating of illegal deforestation
Revision of legislation ‐ environmental infractions and respective sanctions.
Conditioning of rural credit.
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Deforestatio
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Years
2004 2008
Source: Assunção et al. (2012)
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Annual deforestation rates in Brazilian Amazon
US$ 20 a 70 per ha/year US$ 100 to 400 per ha/25‐ to 30‐year cycle
US$ 100 to 200 per ha/year
US$ 2.000 to 2.400 per ha (at US$ 20 per ton C)
REDD
CATTLESELECTIVE LOGGING
SOYA
Net profitability of current economic activities in the Amazon and versus the potential for REDD
Decoupling agricultural production and deforestation
1990s
2000so Annual deforestation trends began to diverge from fluctuations in cropland
area and cattle herd size.
o Deforestation in all Brazilian biomes plunged to the lowest rates sincemonitoring began.
o Nevertheless, the link between agricultural expansion and deforestation hasweakened rather than disappeared completely ‐ as the small resurgence inAmazonian deforestation in 2008 by increases in cropland area and cattleherd size.
o Agricultural expansion and deforestation rates: both processes have long been connected in Brazil.
o Peaks in cropland area and cattle herd size coinciding withpeaks in deforestation in Amazonia and in the Cerrado region.
Deforestation is the main cause of unsustainability of agriculture
Macedo et al., 2012 - PNA
Example: Decoupling of deforestation and soy production in the southern Amazon during the late 2000s
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Price (R$)
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Historical agricultural commodities prices in Brazilian Amazon
(2004‐2013)
Source:http://www.agrolink.com.br/cotacoes/
Historico.aspxObs: Adjusted prices with IPCA index
using 2010 as the base year
Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação Secretaria de Políticas e Programas de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento
Coordenação Geral de Mudanças Globais de Clima
Gross emissions by sector
Emissions of 2,36 billion ton ofCO2eq in 2005
Emissions of 1,52 billion ton ofCO2eq in 2012
14%
2%3%
18%
63%
29%
3%
6%
29%
32%
Energy Waste Treatment Industrial Process Agriculture Land use and forests
Land Use andForest
Energy
Agriculture
OBSERVED Deforested Area (%) in 2010
Scenario A Sustainability?
declining deforestation rates
Scenario B Fragmentation?
weakening of policy of recent years
Aguiar et al., 2013
Modeling gives a glimpse of the potential land use change dynamics up to 2050
Which future do we want for the Amazon?
Model Projectionsin 2050
Payment for Environmental Services (e.g., REDD+)Conserving Forests Through Periodic Grants: “Bolsa Floresta”, Amazonas State, Brazil
How to use Amazon biodiversity sustainably and at the same time benefiting the local population?
Natural dye indicator for dental plaque
Economic output of açaí to Amazonia = US$ 2.5 billion/year
The Açaí Case
Net Economic Net Return of Açaí Production in the Amazon Basin Pará State : US$ 206.6 to US$ 2,272.7 ha/yr (for managed and unmanaged sites)
Jardim and Anderson (1987)Hiraoka (1994a, 1994b) Brondizio, E. (2007)
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Adding value through the commodity chain 1 hectare equivalent of açaí fruit
Exhibit ‘Acai: from local to global’: Mathers Museum of World Cultures, Indiana University
Local benefits, but value aggregation away from the region
Brondízio, 2014.
Regional resource economies do not translate into revenue for municipalities
• … the pressure on social services, climate change impact, health vulnerability, and pollution is felt up close and where concrete solutions are demanded
Source: NYT
Source: Google
Brondízio, 2014.
HDI
Low HDI in açaíproducing
municipalities
We need a new economic sustainability paradigmfor the tropical forests...
“ To add value to the heartof the forest”. Bertha Becker
Science and technology must offer solutions for theemergence of an innovative, local bioindustry
Along with empowerment and masseducation of the forest people.
Merci!Thank you!
Duration of dry season (months) in the Arc of Deforestation Region.
100 mm/month 100 mm/month
Marengo et al. (2011)Marengo et al. (2011)
Hovmoller diagram of monthly rainfall from 1951‐2010 for southern Amazon.
Hovmoller diagram of monthly rainfall from 1951‐2010 for southern Amazon.
IPCC/AR5: CMIP3 models and downscaling experiments show over southern Amazonia, northeastern Brazil and eastern Amazonia, the maximum number of consecutive
dry days tends to augment, suggesting a longer dry season.
75°W‐50°W, 15°S‐5°S
Madeira River Flood, SW Amazon, 2014
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Level(cm
)Madeira River Water Levels at Porto Velho
2014 cota de alertacota de transbordamento 1997Média (2008‐2013) Mínimo (2008‐2013)
2014 hydrographPeak flows of 65,000 m3/s
1997
Maximum(2008‐2013)
overflow
Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação Secretaria de Políticas e Programas de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento
Coordenação Geral de Mudanças Globais de Clima
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Brazilian GHG gross emissions: Period 1990-2012in CO2eq
Tg = million ton . GWP CH4: 21; GWP N2O: 310
Land use and forests
Agriculture
Energy
Energy Waste Treatment Industrial Process Agriculture Land use and forests
REGIONAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONS: PRECIPITATION CHANGE FOR THE AMAZON
Global terrestrial carbon sink is dominated by Tropical Forests41
~30% goes into terrestrial ecosystems
~50% of anthropogenic CO2 remainsin the atmosphere
Le Quéré et al. 2009 Nature Geoscience; Schimel et al. 2014 PNAS
‐80 ‐40 0 40 80Latitude
Net CO2flu
x (190
1‐2010, kgC/m
2 /y
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Carbon sink islargest in the
Tropics
Three different methods have been used to estimate land‐use change emissions, indicated here by different shades of greySource: CDIAC; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014
Fossil fuel emissions continue to go up, but emissions from
tropical land‐use change are declining.
% of land‐use change emissions to global emissions: 36% in 1960, 19% in 1990, 8% in 2013
Total global emissions: 39.4 ± 3.4 GtCO2 in 2013, 42% over 1990
Science police interface for reducing deforestation
Land Use Change Emissions of GHG