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Transcript of 'The future of professional organizations' Cisco Plus keynote -Luxembourg
The extreme future of organizations and what it means for your business
frederic de meyer founder
institute for future insights
www.i4fi.com
www.fredericdemeyer.com
why do I have to bother about
long-term trends?
let’s start with a challenge:
what do these have in common?
here’s a hint…
Ford almost got out of
business in the early
1900’s for sticking to it
standardized products
In 2002 Barbie lost its
market predominance
to a new competitor
who just entered this
market the year
before
Until 2006 Coca Cola
was boycotted
multiple times in India
due to its water
mismanagement
practices
GM’s Hummer saw
sales drop 85% from
2006 to 2009
sometimes long-term shifts can
have short-term consequences!
Building a vision of the future is about
connecting the dots
There’s different types of megatrends
DEMOGRAPHIC
• aging population • increasing world population • genY/Milennials • urbanization/geographic mobility • multi-ethnic society • widening gap rich-poor
BUSINESS TRENDS
• shared value (CSR) • social Entrepreneurship • Cause marketing • social Business • open inno/sourcing
trends we can be relatively certain of:
TECHNOLOGY
• ubiquitous computing • disintermediation • crowdsourcing • social Media • SaaS, DIY • cloud Computing
• disintermediation • crowdsourcing • social Media • augmented Reality • 3D • enhanced humans
• decentralization • gamification • virtualization • new business models
• trade blocs and unions • the Market State
trends that are taking shape but future impact relatively uncertain:
a tiny bit speculative:
SUSTAINABILITY
• global warming • scarcity of resources • energy dependency
• declining biodiversity • green technologies
CONSUMER • mass customization
• radical transparency • social buying • sustainable/ethical buying
SOCIETY • dematerialization (digitization)
• talent shortage • boundary blurring • digital divide
GEOPOLITICS • power shift to East • globalization 3.0 • rising middle class
• trade blocs and unions • the Market State • Virtual currencies
The future of professional organizations
can a $40b company be run by a single person?
The world becomes your R&D center
Open innovation
platforms Open sourcing
User generated
innovation
Most of Fortune 500 use
open innovation now
Open sourcing spreads even
to pharmaceutical market
Fiat Mio made through input
of +10,000 customers
Manufacturing without factories
3D printing impact on manufacturing, spare parts, transport, logistics, …
New opportunities in design and software
Outsourcing 3D Printing
Open Innovation
Open source
Open Innovation
Open source
Outsourcing 3D Printing
Can marketing tasks be done more efficiently with
alternative business models?
The world is your sales team
Technology becomes pervasive
Are Cloud computing, consumerization of IT and Do-it-Yourself
Taking away control and responsibility of IT?
What would a virtual company look like?
Open Innovation
Open source
Outsourcing 3D Printing
Crowdsourcing Social buying
Affiliate programs
‘Crowd-selling’
R&D
Manufact
uring
Marketing
Sales Admin
Cust.
Service
ICT
Virtual company
Open Innovation
Open source
Outsourcing 3D Printing
Crowdsourcing Social buying
Affiliate programs
‘Crowd-selling’ Micro-tasking
Cloud, Consumerization,
DIY
Virtual Self help
Social media
Disadvantages: • complexity • loss of control • less loyalty from contributors
Advantages:
• cost-efficiency gains • lean company
• constant innovation • more loyalty from customers
What would a virtual company look like?
R&D
Manufac
turing
Marketing
Sales Admin
Cust.
Service
ICT
Virtual company
Open Innovation
Open source
Outsourcing 3D Printing
Crowdsourcing Social buying
Affiliate programs
‘Crowd-selling’ Micro-tasking
Virtual Social media
Self help
Cloud Consumeri
zation
What would a virtual company look like?
R&D
Manufact
uring
Marketing
Sales Admin
Cust.
Service
ICT
Open Innovation
Open source
Outsourcing 3D Printing
Crowdsourcing Social buying
Affiliate programs
‘Crowd-selling’ Micro-tasking
Virtual Social media
Self help
Cloud Consumerization
But what does it mean for your business?
R&D
Manufac
turing
Marketing
Sales HRM
Cust.
Service
ICT
Virtual company
Open Innovation
Open source
Outsourcing 3D Printing
Crowdsourcing Social buying
Affiliate programs
‘Crowd-selling’ Micro-tasking
Virtual Social media
Self help
Cloud Consumeri
zation
Building your vision of the future is about
connecting the dots
www.i4fi.com www.fredericdemeyer.com
additional questions: [email protected]
The future cannot be predicted …but it can be made !
(ancient African saying)
Are you prepared to make the maximum out of long-term trends?
Now available on
click here (in presentation mode)
“Frederic offers a unique insight of how global changes
translate into new business opportunities. This book is an
essential tool for any future-oriented manager or
entrepreneur and anyone involved in innovation strategies”
Philippe De Ridder, co-founder, Board of Innovation
“Designing and implementing a good strategy is quite a
challenge. In an increasingly complex world, it is becoming
increasingly difficult to recognize the core from the noise.
This book on megatrends will help you do this. It will give
you the necessary insights to focus on the themes that are
crucial to the future of your company. A must read!”
Jeroen De Flander, co-founder, The Performance
Factory, author of Strategy Execution Heroes
“This excellent book is a comprehensive overview of the
major trends and also offers a methodology to better assess
the future reality and master its consequences. The author
provides an essential guide for any strategy exercise”
Peter Corijn, Vice-President, Procter & Gamble
Are you prepared to make the maximum out of long-term trends?
Now available at: www.i4fi.com/useful_tools
40 megatrend fact-sheets that will:
prepare your team for long-
term planning session;
help you understand the long-term challenges of your
business;
discover new opportunities
for your business;
generate innovative ideas to ensure your long-term success!