The Future of Nuclear Power-What are the Consequences of Fukushima?
-
Upload
frost-sullivan -
Category
Business
-
view
1.307 -
download
2
description
Transcript of The Future of Nuclear Power-What are the Consequences of Fukushima?
What are the Consequences of Fukushima?
Jonathan Robinson, Senior ConsultantEnguerran Ripert, Consultant
Roberta Gamble, DirectorEnergy & Power29th March 2011
2
Jonathan RobinsonSenior Consultant
Energy, Environment Practice & Building Technologies Practice
London (UK)
Functional Expertise
• 5 years of research & consulting experience, involvement in more than 40 projects. Particular expertise in:
• Opportunity Assessment
• Procurement Strategy
• Supply Chain Management Strategy
• Due Diligence for IPO/M&A activity
Industry Expertise
• Experience base covering broad range of energy sectors, leveraging long-standing working relationships with
leading industry participants:
• Renewables sector (wind, solar, tidal, hydro)
• Conventional thermal energy (coal, gas)
• Nuclear
• Oil & Gas
• Future energy (fuel cells, energy storage, smart energy)
What I bring to the Team
• Extensive track-record of energy focused research and consulting projects
• Knowledge of, and relationships with, key stakeholders in the energy sector
• Strong analytical skills
Career Highlights
• Before Frost & Sullivan, worked for a political consultancy in London and for the NSW State Government in
Australia.
Education and Nationality
• MBus, University of Sydney; BSc Politics & Law, University of Southampton, UK National.
Jonathan Robinson
3
Enguerran Ripert
Enguerran Ripert• Consultant
• London
Frost & SullivanEurope
Functional Expertise
• 4 years strategy consulting experience within a corporation and as a freelancer. Project experience includes:
• Market expansion/entry
• Product launch with potential market calibration
• Mergers & acquisitions
• Commercial due diligence
• Strategic sourcing and procurement support, best practice analysis
• Business plan development
Industry Expertise
� Energy sector experience
- BP, Saudi Aramco (Venture assessment, Procurement strategy)
- Enel, EDF (Nuclear sourcing strategies)
- First Reserve Private Equity (M&A)
� Environment and Building Technologies
- Philips (New market creation, market expansion)
- Metawater (Market analysis)
- IMI, CRH (Business plan development)
What I bring to the Team
• Well developed communication and problem solving skills, Efficient project management and a good technical
understanding. Strong analytical skills and Fluency in English and French.
Career Highlights
• Frost & Sullivan highlights- Part of a multi million Euro procurement project with a key Oil & Gas client
- Due Diligence project for multi billion M&A deal
- Nuclear market assessment for a top 5 European utility
- TV appearance (CNBC, Bloomberg)
• Prior to Frost & Sullivan- 2007-2008 Paris-based Freelance consultant – Voltalia (Renewable energy start-up, 1-yr validation of entry into India)
- 2005-2007 London-based research analyst – Corporate Executive Board
Education
• BSc (Hons) Chemistry, University College London
4
Functional Expertise
•Over a decade of consulting energy and power equipment and solution providers, including
- Third-party business plan verification
- Acquisition target research and due diligence
- Geographical expansion strategy
- New market exploration
Industry Expertise
•Thirteen-plus years in the power and energy sector, with focus on both traditional and alterative energy markets including:
- Gas and steam turbine markets, as well as power plant services markets
- Generator sets and other distributed generation solutions
- Renewables, in particular solar and wind industry
- T&D markets with a focus on smart grid and metering
What I bring to the Team
• Years of industry contacts and connections, understanding market trends from the participant’s point of view
• Extensive client interaction and strategic project management
• Oversight of a diverse and global team of analysts and consultants
• Fluent in Italian
• Oft quoted and interviewed in national publications including the New York Times, Chicago Tribune, and NPR
Career Highlights
• Director of Frost & Sullivan Energy business unit since 2006, analyst and management roles since 2000
• Previous related experience at Siemens Power Corporation
• Long term client relationships with major industry players, including
- GE
- Caterpillar
- Cummins
- Schneider Electric
Education
•Bachelors in International Studies and in Economics from University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee
Roberta Gamble
Roberta GambleDirector,Energy and Power Systems
Frost & SullivanNorth AmericaMountain View, CA
5
What Are The Consequences of Fukushima?Analyst Briefing Overview
6
What Happened in Japan
7
North AmericaUnits = 27GW = 43
Russia & CISUnits = 28GW = 22
AsiaUnits = 84GW = 90
Middle EastUnits = 2GW = 2
South AmericaUnits = 2GW = 2
6
4
4
14
4
EuropeUnits = 16 GW = 22
30%
14%
5%
2%
20%
1%
Location of Nuclear Reactors (Under Construction & Planned)
Countries/Regions Planning for Nuclear Power
Countries/Regions Using Nuclear Power
% of Nuclear Power in 2010 Energy Mix
WorldUnits = 152GW = 173
15%
Source: PRIS database, Frost & Sullivan
Nuclear Reactors Planned and Under Construction as of March 2011
8
Source: McCoys, Frost & Sullivan
Global Historical and Forecast Reactor Pressure Vessel Orders
9
Germany
Expected Decommissioning in Power
Generation Capacity
8,150
6,6103,200
1,1001,520
1,870
6,190
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2011 - 2015 2016 - 2020
Meg
aw
att
s (
MW
)
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
No Nuclear Orders,
prioritisation of CCGT
Source: McCoys, Frost & Sullivan
Hard Coal
20.1%
Lignite
23.5%
Oil
1.6%
Others
8.0%
Hydro
4.2%
Wind
6.3%
Nuclear
23.3%
CCGT/Gas
13.0%
2010 Power Mix (MWh)
10
Russia
Expected Decommissioning in Power
Generation Capacity
2,790 4,600
6,360
8,920
11,890
13,700
1,4701,420
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2011 - 2015 2016 - 2020
Meg
aw
att
s (
MW
)
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Nuclear Orders (MW)
600
2,400 2,400
1,2001,500
2,400
1,800
2,400 2,400 2,400
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Eq
uip
men
t O
rders
(M
W)
Source: McCoys, Frost & Sullivan
2010 Power Mix (MWh)
Natural Gas
45.2%
Nuclear
16.3%
Coal
17.5%
Oil and Other
Thermal
2.7%Hydro
18.3%
11
United Kingdom
Expected Decommissioning in Power
Generation Capacity
1,2002,640
2,790
8,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2011 - 2015 2016 - 2020
Meg
aw
att
s (
MW
)
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Nuclear Orders (MW)
1,700 1,700
1,100 1,100
1,700
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Eq
uip
men
t O
rders
(M
W)
Source: McCoys, Frost & Sullivan
2010 Power Mix (MWh)
C oa l
32.2%
Oil
1.6%
G a s
45.5%
Nuc lea r
13.5%
Wind
1.8%
Hydro
2.1%
Other
R enewables
2.7%
Other
0.6%
12
Italy
Expected Decommissioning in Power
Generation Capacity
2,690
480
1,080
2,610
3,150890
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2011 - 2015 2016 - 2020
Meg
aw
att
s (
MW
)
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Nuclear Orders (MW)
1,650 1,650
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Eq
uip
men
t O
rders
(M
W)
Source: McCoys, Frost & Sullivan
2010 Power Mix (MWh)
Natural Gas
54.1%
Coal
13.5%
Other Thermal
14.3%
Solar PV
0.1%
Wind
1.5%
Geothermal
1.7%Hydro
14.8%
13
United States
Current State of Nuclear Energy in the US
• US is world’s largest nuclear producer, with approximately 30% of worldwide nuclear electricity generation
• 104 plants in operation across 31 States, with a production of 799 GWh
• Exelon largest owner of nuclear power in the US, 3rd largest in world
• About 20% of US power is from nuclear energy
• Nuclear waste a growing concern:
• Almost 72 tons of nuclear waste
• Distributed among 30 states, some with no active nuclear power
• Mostly held at nuclear sites
• Three-fourths is water cooled, rest is dry cask but that is considered a temporary solution by the government
• NRC to review safety across all US nuclear reactors, with newly formed committee.
• Safety costs are expected to increase
US Power Mix by Output, 2011
Source: EIA
14
United States (cont)
Announced Application
Site COL Date
Reactor Type Units
Alternate Energy Holdings
Hammet (ID) 2012 AP1000, or APWR 1
Amarillo Power Amarillo (TX) 2010 Areva US EPR 2
Constellation Energy Calvert Cliffs (MD) 2008 Areva US EPR 2
Nine Mile Point (NY) susp Areva US EPR 1
Dominion North Anna (VA) 2007 GE APWR 1
DTE Energy Fermi (MI) susp GE ESBWR 1
Duke Energy William States, Lee (SC)
2008 West.AP1000 2
Piketon (OH) 2013 Areva US EPR 1
Entergy River Bend (LA) susp GE ESBWR 1
Grand Gulf (MS) susp GE ESBWR 1
FPL Turkey Point (FL) 2009 West. AP1000 2
Luminant Comanche Peak (TX) 2008 GE APWR 2
NRG Energy South Texas Project 2007 GE ABWR 2
PPL Bell Bend (PA) 2008 Areva US EPR 1
Progress Energy Harris (NC) 2007 West.AP1000 2
Levy County (FL) 2008 West.AP1000 2
SCE&G Summer (SC) 2007 West.AP1000 2
Southern Vogtle (GA) 2008 West.AP1000 2
Tennesse Valley Auth. Watts Bar 2009 West AP1000 1
Bellanfonte (AL) susp West.AP1000 1
Transition Power Dev Blue Castle (UT) 2012 Areva US EPR 2
• 4 new reactors are planned for 2015; 9 total by 2020
• Obama government to provide $8.3B loan guarantee for 2 new reactors in Georgia; $36B in current version of 2012 draft budget for nuclear
• Nuclear Regulatory Commission statement that no change in nuclear plans
• However, inspectors at existing sites double-checking emergency equipment; may soon start 90 day study into US vs. Japan plants
• Questions on whether recent upgrades in US were also made in Japan
• However, NRC has been accused of being complacent on some recent issues, such as leaking pipes, electrical malfunctions
• Some in Congress requesting freezes on any expansion plans, a rescinding of NRC decisions to relicense Vermont plant
Source: World Nuclear Association
15
Source: Energy Information Administration, Frost & Sullivan
Levelised Generation Cost By Generation Type (EIA)
16
Source: International Energy Agency, Frost & Sullivan
Typical Nuclear Generation Cost Breakdown, 2010
17
Nuclear Safety and Life Extensions
Construction Operation Decommissioning
1
5
23
2
45
2
6
3
6
4 43
6
45
9
6
4
1011
14
21
24
3233
21
18
22
19
7
1314
16
11
22
14
10
12
5
7
1 1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
Nu
mb
er o
f U
nit
s
Age of Units
~40 years~10 years ~10 years
Timeline Breakdown of a Nuclear Project
Distribution of Global Nuclear Plants by Age
Highly likely to be granted life extensions of up to 10 yearsBenefit of granting a Nuplex (5 years) – €10-13trillion (~ +7200TWh)
Source: PRIS, Frost & Sullivan
18
Contender Countries
•Uruguay•Chile•Argentina
•Belarus•Italy•Poland
•Egypt•Tunisia•Nigeria•Morocco
•Turkey•UAE•Jordan• Saudi Arabia•Kuwait
•Bangladesh•Indonesia•Vietnam•Thailand
19
Conclusion
1. The cost of nuclear safety will increase, making CCGT even more attractive.
2. Nuclear plant life extensions (nuplex) will be extremely difficult to refuse as the economic benefit is so large
3. Contender countries will take more time than expected to access nuclear as capability reviews will be stricter
4. In Europe, decision delays will increase costs but nuclear is still expected to provide around 30% of Europe’s electricity to at least 2020.
5. Financing is the main issue rather than public reticence, however looming elections following necessary cost cuts will further delay decisions if nuclear is deemed unattractive.
20
Next Steps
� Request a proposal for Growth Partnership Services or Growth Consulting Services to support you and your team to accelerate the growth of your company. ([email protected])
� Join us at our annual Growth, Innovation, and Leadership 2011: A Frost & Sullivan Global Congress on Corporate Growth occurring in London on 17 – 18 May 2011. (www.gil-global.com)
� Register for Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Opportunity Newsletter and keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities (www.frost.com/news)
21
Your Feedback is Important to Us
Growth Forecasts?
Competitive Structure?
Emerging Trends?
Strategic Recommendations?
Other?
Please inform us by rating this presentation
What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan?
Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Consulting can assist with your growth strategies
22
http://twitter.com/frost_sullivan
Follow Frost & Sullivan on Facebook, LinkedIn, SlideShare, and Twitter
http://www.facebook.com/FrostandSullivan
http://www.linkedin.com/companies/4506
http://www.slideshare.net/FrostandSullivan
23
For Additional Information
Juliet Shaw
Sales Director
Direct: +44 (0) 207 343 8363
Jonathan Robinson
Senior Consultant
Direct: +44 (0) 207 343 8314
Chiara Carella
Corporate Communications Director, Europe
Direct: +44 (0) 207 343 8314
Roberta Gamble
DirectorEnergy & Environment
Direct: 650- 475- 4522