The Future of Mobility:

Getting on the Path to

Carbon-Free Transportation

Don Anair

UCS Strategic Goal: Achieve Net-Zero Global Warming Emissions by Mid-Century

EIA Monthly Energy Report December 2017 (12 month total)

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50

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1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Mill

ion

Met

ric To

ns

CO2 Emissions by Sector EIA Monthly Energy Report (12 month total)

Transportation

Electricity

Industrial

Residential

Commercial

0

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Billi

ons o

f Mile

sU.S. light duty vehicle miles traveled

Data Source: 2018 Transportation Energy Data Book, Data collection changed after 2008

0%

20%

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60%

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100%

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

U.S. transportation energy consumption

coal petroleum natural gas biofuel

≥95% Petroleum 1958-2007

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5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Cars

Average

Trucks

New Vehicle Real World Fuel Economy

What are the environmental impacts of future mobility?

Shared Autonomous

Electric

Autonomous

Adapted from: Gawron et al. , “Life Cycle Assessment of Connected and Automated Vehicles: Sensing and Computing Subsystem and Vehicle Level Effects”. Environmental Science and Technology, 2018

Impact of AV systems on vehicle emissions

Potential Energy Impacts of Self-Driving Cars

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Platooning

Congestion mitigation

Eco-driving

Higher highway speeds

Travel cost reduction

Increased features

Infrastructure footprint*

Improved crash avoidance

De-emphasized performance

New user groups

Vehicle right-sizing

Changed mobility services

% changes in energy consumption due to vehicle automation

Wadud, Mackenzie, and Leiby. “Help or Hindurance? The travel, energy and carbon impacts of highly automated vehicles,” February 2016.

Business as Usual: Emissions increases of 50% compared to today

Automation Revolution: Average per vehicle VMT increase of 15-20%

Autonomous

Electric

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Series 1Domestic EV sales

EVs = 1% national sales (5% in California)

EV Global Warming Emissions

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S. Share of Electricity Generation

Non-hydro renewable

Nuclear

Natural gas

Coal

Don’t Hold Your BreathElectric cars won’t match the price of fossil-fueled ones until 2025

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$5.00

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$45.00

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Electric Vehicles Conventional Vehicles

U.S

. Dol

lars

(Tho

usan

ds)

Electric vehicle vs. conventional vehicle cost

Bloomberg New Energy Finance

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0.5

1

1.5

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2.5

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2015 2050

Giga

tons

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O2

Business as Usual Automation & Electrification

45%

U.S. LDV Stock

Fulton et al. “Three Revolutions in Urban Transportation”, 2017

U.S. VMT 50%

30%

Global Urban Passenger Transport CO2 EmissionsAutomation & Electrification

Shared Autonomous

Electric

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Fewer Trips Walk Bike Transit Carpool Drive Taxi

“Ride-hailing is currently likely to contribute to growth in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the major cities represented in this study”.

Clewlow and Shankar, “Disruptive Transportation: The Adoption, Utilization, and Impacts, of Ride-Hailing in the U.S.”, 2017

How would you get there without Lyft or Uber?

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5%

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35%

Percent of requested rides for UberPool and Lyft Line in CA

CA Public Utilities Commission, “Electrifying the Ride-Sourcing Sector in California: Assessing the Opportunity”, 2018

Fulton et al. “Three Revolutions in Urban Transportation”, 2017

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0.5

1

1.5

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2.5

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3.5

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2015 2050

Giga

tons

of C

O2

Business as Usual Automation, Electrification, and Pooling

80%

U.S. LDV Stock

U.S. VMT 25%

70%

Global Urban Passenger Transport CO2 EmissionsAutomation & Electrification & Sharing

Shared & Pooled

Autonomous

Electric

Policy is critical to a low carbon mobility future

• Ensure the race for automation is safe• Continue to accelerate vehicle electrification and

overcome barriers to adoption • Expand clean transportation choices: walking,

biking, car share, improved transit, and mobility services.

• Encourage pooling through pricing, access, or other strategies.

• Improve access to transportation on an equitable basis

• Policy development and evaluation based on data

Principles for Self-Driving Vehicles

Thank You