The Future of Mediterranean Europe: Between the Euro Crisis and Arab Revolution

7/28/2019 The Future of Mediterranean Europe: Between the Euro Crisis and Arab Revolution

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MEDITERRANEAN PAPER SERIES 2013

THE FUTURE OF MEDITERRANEANEUROPE: BETWEEN THE EURO CRISIS

AND ARAB REVOLUTIONA REFLECTION ON THE SEVENTH MEETING OF THEMEDITERRANEAN STRATEGY GROUP

Emiliano Alessandri
http://www.gmfus.org/


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2013 Te German Marshall Fund o the United States. All rights reserved.

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1 202 683 2650F 1 202 265 1662E in o@gm us.org

GMF Paper SeriesTe GMF Paper Series presents research on a variety o transatlantic topics by sta , ellows, and partners o the GermanMarshall Fund o the United States. Te views expressed here are those o the author and do not necessarily represent the views o GMF. Comments rom readers are welcome; reply to the mailing address above or by e-mail to in o@gm us.org.

About GMFTe German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF) strengthens transatlantic cooperation on regional, national, andglobal challenges and opportunities in the spirit o the Marshall Plan. GMF does this by supporting individuals and institu-tions working in the transatlantic sphere, by convening leaders and members o the policy and business communities,by contributing research and analysis on transatlantic topics, and by providing exchange opportunities to oster renewedcommitment to the transatlantic relationship. In addition, GMF supports a number o initiatives to strengthen democra-cies. Founded in 1972 as a non-partisan, non-pro t organization through a gi rom Germany as a permanent memorial toMarshall Plan assistance, GMF maintains a strong presence on both sides o the Atlantic. In addition to its headquarters inWashington, DC, GMF has ofces in Berlin, Paris, Brussels, Belgrade, Ankara, Bucharest, Warsaw, and unis. GMF also hassmaller representations in Bratislava, urin, and Stockholm.

About the Mediterranean Policy ProgramTe Mediterranean Policy Program promotes transatlantic analysis and dialogue on issues a ecting Southern Europe, NorthA rica, the Levant, and the Mediterranean basin. Priority areas include: understanding trends in Mediterranean societies;exploring opportunities or south-south cooperation and integration; research on key unctional issues a ecting Mediter-ranean security and development; and strengthening the North American policy debate on the region and transatlanticcooperation on Mediterranean strategy.

Cover photo: Protesting against social cuts in Valencia, Spain on February 25, 2012. Eduardo Luzzatti Buy
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The Future of Mediterranean Europe:Between the Euro Crisis and Arab Revolution

A Reflection on the Seventh Meeting of the MediterraneanStrategy Group 1

Mediterranean Paper Series

April 2013

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The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 1

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The combined effectof the twin crises inthe Arab world andSouthern Europe couldbe the re-emergenceof the Mediterranean

as an area of widespread instability,north and south, withthe common seamarking a fault linebetween peoples andcivilizations rather thanproviding the enginefor regional growth anddevelopment.


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If the youth is the society of tomorrow,

Mediterranean European be already seen as

a failed society.


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The Revolutions Next Door3

That the wave of protests rising across

the Arab worldin 2011-12 took

place at a time of crisis in Southern

Mediterranean societies may not bea matter of complete

coincidence.


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The EUs approachto the Mediterraneanas a neighborhoodmay miss the reality of an increasingly diverse Mediterranean

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4 Who Will Drive FutureMediterranean Partnerships?

By failing to establisha clear link betweendemocracy promotionand European

strategy, the EU hasrisked perpetuating

the tension betweeninterests and values,accepting thepossibility of an almosunavoidable clash.


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The uncertainty andthe difficulties thatwill be experiencedin dealing with thenew regimes are aninvitation to deep

engagement with civil society.


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5 The Transatlantic Dimension:Southern Europe and U.S. Strategy

The Europeanizationand democratization

of Southern Europelargely relieved the

United States of the need for direct

concerns in SouthernEurope at a time when

the end of the ColdWar brought stability in

East-West relations.


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From Irans nuclear program and regionalambitions, to the risk of a disintegration of Iraq along sectarianlines, from the security

of Israel in a changing neighborhood tothreats emanating from the Sahel, theUnited States willcontinue to be drawnto the region, albeitmore selectively.


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6 Thinking Beyond the Crisis

Nothing would bemore deleteriousthan a SouthernEuropean bloc that by hardening its positionwould contribute to

deepening instead of bridging the North-South divide in Europeinadvertently giving

substance to thethesis that SouthernEuropean countriesare indeed differentand may not belong toa future EU.


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Shifting attention fromthe divisions within

Europe to the commonchallenges could

also help find a new narrative for the EU.


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Nothing less thanthe idea of a unity of destiny can now fully protect the EU and theeuro from the outbreakof a new crisis

threatening the wholeEuropean integrationprocess.


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Mediterranean Strategy Group Lisbon

February 25 27, 2013

The Future of Mediterranean Europe:Between the Euro Crisis and Arab Revolution

Organized in cooperation with the Italian Institute for International Affairs (IAI), and in partnership with theCompagnia di San Paolo, OCP Foundation, Noble Energy, the Luso-American Foundation, and the Calouste

Gulbenkian Foundation

AGENDA

Monday, February 25

Participants arrive throughout the day at York House (Rua das Janelas Verdes 32, Lisbon)and As JanelasVerdes (Rua Janelas Verdes 47, Lisbon)

1800 Participants gather in the lobbies of York House and As Janelas Verdes and depart for

City Hall (Praa do Municpio 1, Lisbon) via shuttle bus

1830 1930 Cocktail ReceptionLocation: Lisbon City Hall

1930 2100 Welcome DinnerLocation: Aura Restaurant (Praa do Comrcio Terreiro do Pao, Lisbon)

Tuesday, February 26

830 840 Participants gather in the lobbies of York House and As Janelas Verdes and depart forLuso-American Foundation (Rua Sacramento Lapa 21, Lisbon).

900 930 Opening RemarksLocation: Luso-American Foundation


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Craig KennedyPresident, German Marshall Fund of the United States, WashingtonCharles BuchananAdministrator, Fundao Luso-Americana, LisbonEttore GrecoDirector, Istituto Affari Internazionali, Rome

930 1100 Session I The European Crisis and Mediterranean Europe: Economic, Social andPolitical ChallengesLocation: Luso-American Foundation

Southern Europe is at the center of the economic turmoil affecting the Eurozone. From Portugal toGreece, societies are facing enormous challenges of austerity, uncertainty and adjustment. Thecountries of Europes Mediterranean south are among the leading stakeholders in the economicand political future of Europe, but they are also exposed to, and dependent on, decisions taken inBerlin and elsewhere. What are the sources of the crises in Europes south? What is the economicoutlook? What are the potential social and political consequences of a crisis that is taking different forms across the region?

Moderator:Emiliano Alessandri

Senior Transatlantic Fellow, German Marshall Fund of the United States, Washington

Discussants:

Megan GreeneChief Economist, Maverick Intelligence, LondonDimitris KourkoulasDeputy Minister for EU Affairs, Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Athens Andres OrtegaEditorial Writer, El Pais , MadridFrancisco Seixas da Costa Director, North-South Centre, Lisbon

1100 1130 Coffee Break


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1130 1300 Session II The Revolutions Next Door: Southern Europe and Change in the MENALocation: Luso-American Foundation

Europes Southern neighbors across the Mediterranean have been swept by an unprecedentedwave of uprisings. In every case, the post-revolutionary transitions have not been smooth, and further turmoil may be in store. Southern Europe will be directly affected by the economic, political and security future of neighbors across the Mediterranean. What are the likelydevelopments, from migration to spillovers of political violence? What are the potential positivedevelopments flowing from change across the MENA? How might Southern European futures beshaped by Mediterranean-wide trends?

Moderator: Alexandra De Hoop-SchefferOffice Director, German Marshall Fund of the United States, Paris

Discussants: Toms Dupl del MoralFormer Director for the Americas, European External Action Service, Brussels Ghazi Ben AhmedExecutive Director, GMF Tunis, TunisMichalis AttalidesRector, University of Nicosia, Nicosia

Claire SpencerHead, Middle East & North Africa Programme, Chatham House, London

1300 1400 LuncheonLocation: Luso-American Foundation

1400 1530 Session III Southern Europe in the Mediterranean Equation Who Will Drive FutureMediterranean Partnerships?Location: Luso-American Foundation

Southern European countries have been leading advocates of EU, NATO and bilateral dialogueand cooperation across the Mediterranean. How have Europes crises and MENA revolutionsaffected this longstanding vocation and its prospects? Can Southern Europe still lead, or does thecoincidence of crises mean that the shape and character of its leadership must change? What canwe expect from the EU and Euro-Atlantic partners? Is there a new place for Turkey? What will be


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the role of civil society on both sides of the Mediterranean, and is there a special role for SouthernEuropean institutions?

Moderator:Sir Michael LeighSenior Advisor, German Marshall Fund of the United States, Brussels

Discussants:Nathalie TocciDeputy Director, Istituto Affari Internazionali, RomeRanda AchmawiPolitical Commentator and Consultant on MENA Region Politics , LondonIsabelle Montoya

Senior Advisor, European Parliament, BrusselsMarc Pierini Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Brussels

1830 Participants gather in the lobbies of York House and As Janelas Verdes and depart for Grmio Literrio (Rua Ivens 37, Lisbon) via shuttle bus.

1900 2100 Cocktail Reception and Gala DinnerLocation: Grmio Literrio, Biblioteca Room

Wednesday, February 27

830 840 Participants gather in the lobbies of York House and As Janelas Verdes and depart forLuso-American Foundation (Rua Sacramento Lapa 21, Lisbon).

900 1030 Session IV Southern Europe and U.S. StrategyLocation: Luso-American Foundation

The U.S. has been among the leading beneficiaries of the progressive Europeanization of Southern Europe. Once difficult bilateral relationships have, in general, become part of the overall

U.S.-EU relationship. The integration of Europes south has paid clear political and securitydividends for Washington, at a time when partnership and power projection beyond Europe hastaken center stage. How will this trajectory be affected by the current European crisis and the potential for a new north-south divide in Europe? What role can and should the U.S. play inEuropes crisis, and its southern dimension? Does American engagement still matter?


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- 5 -

Moderator:Ian LesserExecutive Director, Transatlantic Center, German Marshall Fund of the United States,Brussels

Discussants:Alessandro Minuto-RizzoSenior Strategic Advisor, ENEL Holding, Rome Robert BellSecretary of Defense Representative, Europe, and Defense Advisor to the U.S. Mission toNATO, BrusselsPeter Swartz Principal Research Scientist, Center for Naval Analyses, Washington

1030 1100 Coffee Break

1100 1230 Session V Thinking Beyond the Crises: Reinventing Southern Europe

Location: Luso-American Foundation

Challenges north and south, against a backdrop of larger, global power shifts, raise fundamentalquestions about the future of Southern Europe, both within Europe and on the international scene.In a period of European enlargement, Europes southern members were models for developmentand integration economic and political. What now? To what extent do current crises offer anopportunity for change at the level of societies, including youth participation, the structure of economies, and governance? What are the consequences of inaction? What are the alternative futures? How can they be shaped? Who can do the shaping?

Moderator:Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffSenior Transatlantic Fellow and Senior Director for Strategy , German Marshall Fund ofthe United States, Washington


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Discussants: Luis Amado

Chairman, Banco Internacional do Funchal, Lisbon Ahmet EvinExecutive Committee Member, Istanbul Policy Center, IstanbulElena Panaritis Founder and Director, Panel Group/Thought For Action, Washington

1230 1300 Concluding Remarks and Next StepsLocation: Luso-American Foundation

Emiliano Alessandri

Senior Transatlantic Fellow , German Marshall Fund of the United States, Washington

1300 1400 Luncheon and DepartureLocation: Luso-American Foundation


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Mediterranean Strategy Group Lisbon

November 12 14, 2012

The Future of Mediterranean Europe: Between the Euro Crisis and Arab Revolution

PARTICIPANT LIST

Randa Achmawi Journalist, Commentator and ConsultantAl-Ahram HebdoLondon

Emiliano AlessandriSenior Transatlantic FellowGerman Marshall Fund of the United StatesWashington

Luis AmadoChairmanBanif - Banco Internacional do Funchal, SALisbon

Ekavi AthanassopoulouSenior Research FellowHellenic Foundation for European and ForeignPolicyAthens

Michalis AttalidesRectorUniversity of NicosiaNicosia

Elisabete Azevedo-HarmanVice-Director of the Institute for PoliticalStudies and Coordinator of the ResearchCenterUniversidade Catlica PortuguesaLisbon

Robert BellSecretary of Defense Representative, Europe,and Defense Advisor

Mission of the United States to NATOBrussels

Mohammed BelmahiChairmanOCP Foundation

Rabat

Ghazi Ben AhmedDirector, MENA TrustGerman Marshall Fund of the United StatesTunis

Jorge Braga de MacedoPresidentIICTLisbon


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Charles BuchananAdministrator and Vice PresidentFundao Luso-AmericanaLisbon

Graa Maria da Fonseca Caetano GonalvesCity CouncillorCity Council of LisbonLisbon

Giancarlo ChevallardPresidentParalleli - Istituto Euromediterraneo del NordOvestTurin

Alexandra de Hoop SchefferOffice DirectorGerman Marshall Fund of the United StatesParis

Massimo DeandreisDirector GeneralIntesa SanpaoloNaples

Mnica DiasAssistant Professor of the Institute of PoliticalStudiesUniversidade Catlica PortuguesaLisbon

Toms Dupl del MoralFormer Director for the AmericasEuropean External Action ServiceBrussels

Ahmet EvinExecutive Committee MemberIstanbul Policy CenterIstanbul

Nora Fisher Onar

Assistant ProfessorBaheehir University Istanbul

Ettore Greco

DirectorIstituto Affari InternazionaliRome

Megan GreeneChief EconomistMaverick IntelligenceLondon

Craig KennedyPresidentGerman Marshall Fund of the United StatesWashington

Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffSenior Transatlantic Fellow and Senior Directorfor StrategyGerman Marshall Fund of the United StatesWashington

Dimitris KourkoulasDeputy MinisterMinistry of Foreign Affairs, GreeceAthens


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3

Alberto Laplaine GuimaraesSecretary-GeneralMunicipality of LisbonLisbon

Michael LeighSenior AdvisorGerman Marshall Fund of the United StatesBrussels

Ian LesserExecutive Director, Brussels Office and SeniorDirector for Foreign and Security PolicyGerman Marshall Fund of the United StatesBrussels

Alejandro Lorca CorrnsProfessor EmeritusUniversidad Autnoma de MadridMadrid

Hamdi LozaEgyptian Ambassador to LisbonEmbassy of the Arab Republic of EgyptLisbon

Bruno MacaesSenior Policy AdvisorPrime Minister's Office, PortugalLisbon

Gonalo MatiasAssistant ProfessorUniversidade Catlica PortuguesaLisbon

Catarina Mendes LealPolicy AdvisorMinistry of National Defense, PortugalLisbon

Alessandro Minuto-RizzoPresidentNato Defense College Foundation

Rome

Isabelle Montoya-WilkinsonPrincipal Administrator, Committee on ForeignAffairs

European ParliamentBrussels

Andres OrtegaAnalyst and Editorial WriterEl PasMadrid

Elena PanaritisDirector and FounderPanel Group/Thought for ActionWashington

Marc Pierini

Visiting ScholarCarnegie Endowment for International PeaceBrussels

Nabila Ramdani

JournalistFreelanceLondon


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Nicolo Russo PerezProgram Manager, International Relations andEuropean IntegrationCompagnia di San PaoloTurin

Francisco Seixas da CostaDirector, North-South CentreCouncil of EuropeLisbon

Chrysostomos SfatosDirectorVeritas Strategic SolutionsAthens

Claire SpencerHead, Middle East & North Africa ProgrammeChatham HouseLondon

Peter SwartzPrincipal Research ScientistCenter for Naval AnalysesWashington

Nathalie TocciDeputy DirectorIstituto Affari InternazionaliRome

Nuno TorresNational Defense Policy DirectorPortuguese Ministry of National DefenseLisbon


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O f f i c e sWashington Berlin Paris Brussels

Belgrade Ankara Bucharest Warsaw Tunis

The Future of Mediterranean Europe: Between the Euro Crisis and Arab Revolution

Documents

Transcript of The Future of Mediterranean Europe: Between the Euro Crisis and Arab Revolution