The Future of Manufacturing May 2011
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Future of Manufacturing: Emerging Drivers of Change Dr Tim Jones – Programme Director 16 May 2011
Transcript of The Future of Manufacturing May 2011
Future of Manufacturing: Emerging Drivers of Change
Dr Tim Jones – Programme Director -‐ 16 May 2011
The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight programme that ran throughout 2010 and engaged expert input from over 140 countries to gain a unique global view
Future Agenda Future Agenda
52 insights on the world in 2020 across six key areas are being used by companies around the world – some of these
insights have key implicaIons for manufacturing
Today we are using a few of these to sImulate some thoughts Future Agenda Insights
By 2020 we will add another 750m people to the planet, most in places least able to accommodate them
Imbalanced PopulaIon Growth CertainIes
We will see economic, physical and poliIcal shortages of key materials that will result in major changes in perspecIves
Key Resource Constraints CertainIes
The centre of gravity of global wealth is shiTing East with decreased influence for the US and Europe
Asian Wealth ShiT CertainIes
We will be connected everywhere -‐ everything that can benefit from a network connecIon will have one
Ubiquitous Data Access CertainIes
Rising sustainability imperaIves and increasing cost of ownership shiT the balance from
ownership to access and we prefer to rent than buy
Lease Everything Wealth
A wealthier, healthier older generaIon increasingly engage in more acIve lives, having extended careers
and becoming more poliIcally involved
AcIve Elderly Happiness
Consumers are incenIvised to use significantly less energy as escalaIng growth in carbon emissions
force uIliIes to change their business models
Less Energy Wealth
Increasing governmental focus on energy security and climate change drives the uptake of large-‐scale
solar as the leading renewable supply
Solar Sunrise Security
Advanced water purificaIon, irrigaIon and desalinaIon technologies are used to help communiIes to manage the rising supply / demand imbalance
Water Management Security
With more free agents and outsourcing, non-‐core funcIons within organisaIons are interchangeable
and easily rebuilt around value-‐creaIng units
Corporate LEGO Security
The need to make public transport as flexible as private focuses a^enIon on the last mile between mulI-‐modal
hubs and the home / work desInaIon
Bridging The Last Mile Locality
Future of Manufacturing: Emerging Drivers of Change 8 Key Signals and Signposts
AddiIve manufacture has grown in the aerospace sector as companies seek to reduce the 20:1 ‘buy to fly’ raIo
AddiIve Manufacture Signal #1
With lower capital costs this is now going increasingly mainstream and replacing tradiIonal techniques
AddiIve Manufacture Signal #1
In the construcIon sector, cast and 3D machined cladding is opening up a wide range of design opIons
3D Cladding Signal #2
In a fully fla^ened world, where IP has less value, China’s domesIc market will increasingly set the global standards
China Sets The Standards Signal #3
To keep up, in the west we need >double producIvity in the next 20 years but without increasing resource consumpIon
Increasing ProducIvity Signal #4
Virtual tools increasingly control flexible physical tools in the people-‐free programmable shop floor
Intelligent Factories Signal #5
Further separaIon of design and manufacture allows for more low cost complexity especially close to the customer
Late CustomisaIon Signal #6
Distributed assembly and access to simple technology will provide new entrants with more local supply opIons
Late CustomisaIon Signal #6
Supply webs are replacing supply chains and adopIng the principles of established social and professional networks
Supply Webs Signal #7
New soluIons to the problem of connecIng to resources and the market are being trailed in some key sectors
Mobile Factories Signal #8
For more insights and free e-‐book please see the futureagenda website Tim Jones – Programme Director
[email protected] +44 780 1755 054
