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The Future of Higher Education in Texas
Woody L. Hunt Chairman
Higher Education Strategic Planning Committee
Let’s talk about higher education in Texas and the educational competitiveness of the
Texas work force
• Where do we stand in terms of the educational attainment of our workforce?
• Why is it so important to our state?
• What can we do to “raise the bar”?
CLOSING THE GAPS ANNUAL DEGREE COMPLETION MORE THAN DOUBLED FROM 2000 to 2014
IN 2000, ESTABLISHED A GOAL OF
163,000 ANNUAL POSTSECONDARY
CREDENTIALS BY 2015
THAT GOAL WAS ACHIEVED
IN 2011
246,499 IN 2014
*THE GOAL WAS LATER INCREASED TO 210,000 TO REFLECT INCREASE IN POPULATION
2000 2011 2006 2003 2009 2014 2015
ACTUALS 116,235 221,538 132,478 155,527 188,927 246,499
Texas’ healthy business environment has become a major contributor to our educational attainment goals
4
TEXAS HAS BENEFITED FROM IMPORTING COLLEGE-EDUCATED RESIDENTS
13,462
53,476
28,880
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Associates Bachelor's GraduateSource: U.S. Census Bureau; ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) Files
NET ANNUAL MIGRATION BY DEGREE LEVEL - 22-64 YEAR OLDS AVERAGE FROM 2011 - 2013
NET ANNUAL IMPORTS
95,818 WITH POSTSECONDARY
ATTAINMENT
201,530 TOTAL
NET ANNUAL IMPORTS
5
Closing the Gaps by 2015’S goals seemed bold at the time and helped bring Texas on par with comparable states. International data on attainment levels, however, suggests that the bar was set too low.
Far too low.
6
7
Source: Education at a Glance 2014, OECD Indicators and American Communities Survey Public Use Microdata Sample 2013
TEXAS IS LOSING GROUND Percent of adults with an associate degree or higher.
TEXAS IS LOSING GROUND
RANK
5th IN THE WORLD
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT ASSOCIATE OR HIGHER
TEXANS 55-64 YEARS OLD
RANK
25TH IN THE WORLD
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT ASSOCIATE OR HIGHER
Texas attainment levels have stayed relatively steady, but in a global economy, staying steady = falling behind
TEXANS 25-34 YEARS OLD
8
Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2014 (for 2012);
U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey One-Year Public Use Microdata Sample File
COMPARING TEXAS WITH NATIONS AND OTHER STATES
PERCENTAGE OF YOUNG ADULT DEGREE ATTAINMENT - (AGES 25-34)
TEXAS IS LOSING GROUND
9
11
OUR FUTURE WORKFORCE
Our future workforce will demand even more postsecondary trained and educated workers.
IN 1973 ONLY 28% OF ALL U.S. JOBS REQUIRED
POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION/SKILLS
BY 2020 65% OF ALL NEW JOBS WILL REQUIRE
POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION/SKILLS
Currently, 35% of Texans aged 25-34 have an associate degree or higher. 10
11
SIGNIFICANT WORK REMAINS TO ENSURE TEXAS SUSTAINS PROGRESS
• Texas is doing better but falling farther behind
• It is an urgent matter that Texas increase the knowledge and skills of its workforce to globally competitive standards
• Failure to do so will have serious economic consequences for both the
state and its citizens
11
12
SIGNIFICANT WORK REMAINS TO ENSURE TEXAS SUSTAINS PROGRESS
• We must be much more aggressive in our expectations and our policies – incrementalism is not a solution
o Benchmark against global best performance o Be much more strategic in
• Increasing capacity to deliver instruction • Investing public resources
• As largest donor and regulator, the state’s role is central in laying
out educational goals for our state workforce and our public institutions
• In setting goals, the state must prioritize completion
12
The Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and the State New Economy Index (2012)
AL
AK AZ
AR
CA
CO CT
DE FL GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR PA
RI
SC
SD
TN TX
UT
VT VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
US
20
27
34
41
48
55
30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000
High College Attainment, Low Personal Income High College Attainment, High Personal Income
Low College Attainment, Low Personal Income Low College Attainment, High Personal Income
Perc
ent o
f Adu
lts 2
5 to
64
with
Col
lege
Deg
rees
(2
012)
Personal Income per Capita (2013) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; Bureau of Economic Analysis; ITIF 2012 New Economy Index
State New Economy Index 2012 Top Tier
Middle Tier Bottom Tier
13
Texas Personal Income per Capita as a Percent of the U.S. Average (1980-2012)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
97.8 96.4
89.2 90.6
94.0 93.6 94.5 95.0 97.8
80
90
100
110
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012
14
Texas must sustain educational progress. Barrier #1: Demographics
15
59.8
37.3
4.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Texa
sN
ew M
exic
oC
alifo
rnia
Flor
ida
Nev
ada
Mis
siss
ippi
Geo
rgia
Ariz
ona
Mar
ylan
dLo
uisi
ana
Sout
h C
arol
ina
New
Yor
kIll
inoi
sN
ew J
erse
yD
elaw
are
Nor
th C
arol
ina
Nat
ion
Alab
ama
Col
orad
oVi
rgin
iaC
onne
ctic
utAr
kans
asTe
nnes
see
Rho
de Is
land
Mic
higa
nM
assa
chus
etts
Kans
asW
ashi
ngto
nPe
nnsy
lvan
iaO
klah
oma
Ore
gon
Neb
rask
aIn
dian
aO
hio
Mis
sour
iW
isco
nsin
Haw
aii
Idah
oU
tah
Min
neso
taW
yom
ing
Kent
ucky
Iow
aAl
aska
Sout
h D
akot
aN
orth
Dak
ota
New
Ham
pshi
reW
est V
irgin
iaM
onta
naM
aine
Verm
ont
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2013 State Population Estimates
PERCENT OF 0-24 YEAR-OLDS IN U.S. WHO ARE BLACK OR HISPANIC (2013)
16
Source: Texas Data Center; U.S. Census Bureau, National Center for Education Statistics
43.9% 38.8%
11.5% 5.8%
30.0%
51.3%
12.7% 6.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
White Hispanic Black Other
Total Population 2013 Public Elementary and Secondary Students 2012-13
TEXAS POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY RACE/ETHNICITY (TOTAL AND K-12)
17
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011-13 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File
DIFFERENCE IN COLLEGE ATTAINMENT BETWEEN WHITES AND MINORITIES IN U.S.
18
Whites Black Hispanic
Underrepresented Minorities
(Black, Hispanic, American Indian, Alaska Native)
Attainment Attainment Difference Attainment Difference Attainment Difference
Texas 45.6% 30.0% 15.6% 18.0% 27.6% 21.1% 24.5
U.S. 44.5% 28.1% 16.4% 20.3% 24.2% 23.7% 20.8
SOURCE: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board
PERCENTAGE OF 2004 8TH GRADERS WHO EARNED POSTSECONDARY CREDENTIAL WITHIN 6 YEARS OF HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION
7
HISPANICS
13.2% AFRICAN AM.
12.5% WHITE
28.7% ECONOMICALLY
DISADVANTAGED
10.4%
STATEWIDE
20.3%
ATTAINMENT REMAINS LOW
Despite more postsecondary completions, attainment among Hispanics, African Americans, and poor students remains low 19
RACE/ETHNICITY DISTRIBUTION OF PROJECTED WORKING AGE TEXAS POPULATION - 25 TO 34 YEAR OLDS
20
Hispanic 43%
White 39%
African American
12% Other
6%
2015
Hispanic 52%
White 29%
African American
11% Other
8%
2030
25 to 34 Year Olds 2015 2030
Hispanic 1,644,627 2,323,615 41%
White 1,463,893 1,314,723 -10%
African American 445,875 496,710 11%
Other 245,307 349,304 42%
Total 3,799,702 4,484,352 18%
BY AGE AND RACE/ETHNICITY, 2010-2030
Source: Texas State Data Center, Office of the State Demographer
(19,448)
(96,448)
(202,298)
(520,195)
1,291,243
52,947
22,506
157,802
182,325
356,570
1,191,767
512,100
1,445,090
1,433,719
1,062,750
(750,000)
(500,000)
(250,000)
-
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
1,500,000
1,750,000
2,000,000
Age 0-17 Age 18-24 Age 25-44 Age 25-64 Age 65+
White African American Hispanic / Latino
PROJECTED CHANGE IN TEXAS POPULATION
21
Texas must sustain educational progress. Barrier #2: Economics
22
Source: US Census Bureau: American Community Survey
16.1 19.4
29.1
35.4
42
24.1 21.4
12.5
42.3
27.9
20
9.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Lowest Second Third Highest
White Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic Hispanic
Per
cent
PERCENT OF TEXAS FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN 17 AND YOUNGER BY INCOME QUARTILE, 2012
INCOME
23
THE CONSEQUENCES OF INACTION
24
2030 PROJECTED CHANGE IN EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF POPULATION, AGES 25-64 SAME ATTAINMENT RATES BY RACE/ETHNICITY ASSUMED
17.4
24.7 23.4
7.1
18.5
8.9
21.0
25.1
22.4
6.6
16.9
8.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Less than High School High School or GED Some College, NoDegree
Associates Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate orProfessional
2012 2030
Sources: Texas State Data Center Population Projections. U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey and 2010-12 American Community Survey Three-Year PUMS.
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT WILL DROP IF CURRENT PROGRESS DOES NOT ACCELERATE
25
PROJECTED CHANGE IN PERSONAL INCOME PER CAPITA BY 25 TO 64 WITH SAME ATTAINMENT RATES BY RACE/ETHNICITY
Sources: Texas State Data Center Population Projections. U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 ACS and 2010-12 ACS Three-Year PUMS.
$40,066 $37,147
2012 2030
PERSONAL INCOME WILL DROP IF EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT RATES DO NOT IMPROVE
26
CHANGES AS A RESULT OF NOT IMPROVING EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AMONG BLACK AND HISPANICS - YEAR 2030 ESTIMATES
Sources: Texas State Data Center, 2009 American Community Survey (PUMS), 2008-10 Current Population Survey (PUMS)
-690,727,473
-1,335,450,668
575,664,605
254,512,050
-1,500,000,000
-1,000,000,000
-500,000,000
0
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
State Income TaxRevenues
Sales Tax Revenues Property Tax Revenues Medicaid Expenditures Corrections Expenditures
WITHOUT IMPROVEMENTS, STATE REVENUES WILL DECLINE AND EXPENDITURES WILL INCREASE
27
GLIMPSE INTO THE FUTURE: THE HISTORY OF EL PASO
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MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME AND EDUCATION ATTAINMENT 1950 TO 2012, EL PASO RELATIVE TO TEXAS
Sources: Christine Thurlow Brenner (2001), Educational Trends and Income in El Paso: A Longitudinal Perspective, University of Texas at El Paso, Institute for Policy and Economic Development. 2008, 2009 American Community Survey.
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Median Family Income Adults with High School Diploma Adults with 4+ Years of College
FAMILY INCOME
29
EL PASO EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BY RACE (25-64 YEARS) ASSOCIATES DEGREE AND HIGHER (%)
48.5
40.8
57.7
25.8 30.2
46.0
30.8
64.5
18.4
35.2
45.1
28.7
60.6
20.9
40.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
White Black Asian Hispanic Total
El Paso County Texas U.S.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012, 2013, and 2014 American Community Survey One-Year Public Use Microdata Samples.
EL PASO EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
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• Raise education attainment levels to meet or exceed our competitors
• Shrink disparities across race and ethnic groups
• Get more students into high-demand technical fields
• Improve skills of adult population by bringing them back into the education system
13
TEXAS MUST ADDRESS CHALLENGES TO MAINTAIN A GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE WORKFORCE
32
THESE CHALLENGES ARE BEING ADDRESSED BY THE TEXAS HIGHER EDUCATION COORDINATING BOARD’S NEW STRATEGIC PLAN:
33 By 2030, at least 60 percent of Texans ages 25-34 will have a certificate or degree.
60x30TX Builds on Past Achievements
60x30TX Includes Four Student-Centered Goals
60x30 By 2030, at least 60 percent of Texans ages 25-34 will have a postsecondary credential or degree.
Achieving the 60x30 goal is critical for Texas to remain globally competitive and for its people and communities to prosper.
COMPLETION Goal: By 2030, at least 550,000 students in that year will complete a certificate, associate, bachelor’s, or master’s from an institution of higher education in Texas.
If reached, Texas will award a total of 6.4 million certificates or degrees during the 15 years of this plan.
MARKETABLE SKILLS Goal: By 2030, all graduates from Texas public institutions of higher education will have completed programs with identified marketable skills.
What is a marketable skill? Students exit from any degree program with a variety of skills.
Marketable skills include interpersonal, cognitive, and applied skill areas, are valued by employers, and are primary or complementary to a major.
STUDENT DEBT Goal: By 2030, undergraduate student loan debt will not exceed 60 percent of first-year wages for graduates of Texas public institutions.
K-12 Initiatives
• Cooperation/collaboration between K-12 and higher education
• College/career readiness standards • Teach preparation and professional
development • Local and statewide faculty collaborations
Transitions
Source: THECB, TEA and NSC, 12/31/2014. Texas Public Higher Education Almanac 2015.
Workforce Need Projections
Texas’ Economic Future Requires More Postsecondary Trained/Educated Workers
- In 1973, 28% of all U.S. jobs required
postsecondary education/skills. - By 2020, 65% of all new jobs will require this
level of education.
- Currently, 35% of Texans aged 25-34 have an associate degree or higher.
Source: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce.