The Future of Health - The Emerging View 14 01 16
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Transcript of The Future of Health - The Emerging View 14 01 16
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The Future of Health and Healthcare | The Emerging View Insights from Mul0ple Expert Discussions Around the World Dr. Tim Jones | Programme Director | 14 Jan 2016
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Future Agenda The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program
that accesses mul0ple views of the next decade so all can be beJer informed and s0mulate innova0on.
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Looking Forwards Organisa0ons increasingly want to iden0fy and understand
both the an0cipated and unexpected changes so that they can be beJer prepared for the future.
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Future Agenda 1.0 Top Insights for 2020 From the 2010 program, 52 key insights on the next decade were shared widely and have been extensively used by organisa0ons around the world.
Health was a key issue discussed in 2010 and has grown since.
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Future Agenda in Numbers The first Future Agenda programme engaged a wide range of views in
25 countries. Future Agenda 2.0 has doubled the face-‐to-‐face interac0on and significantly raised online sharing, debate and discussion.
Future Agenda 1.0 1 HOST 16 TOPICS 25 COUNTRIES 50 WORKSHOPS 1500 ORGANISATIONS
Future Agenda 2.0 50 HOSTS 25 TOPICS 35 COUNTRIES 120 WORKSHOPS 5000 ORGANISATIONS
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Future Agenda 2.0 Topics The second version of the Future Agenda program took place during 2015 and addressed over 20 topics via 120 events in
45 ci0es in 35 countries in partnership with around 50 core hosts.
Ageing
CiOes
Company
ConnecOvity
Data
EducaOon
Energy
Food
Government
Health
Learning
Loyalty
Payments
Privacy
Resources
Transport
Travel
Water
Wealth
Work
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The CertainOes
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Imbalanced PopulaOon Growth A growing popula0on adds another billion people but it is also rapidly ageing: A child born next year will live 6 months longer than one born today. While migra0on helps to rebalance some socie0es, dependency ra0os challenge all.
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Everything Connected By 2025 over 1 trillion sensors are connected to mul0ple networks: Everything that can benefit from a connec0on has one. We deliver 10,000x more data 100x more effec0vely but need to make sense of the informa0on that flows.
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ShiSing Power and Influence The centre of gravity of economic power con0nues shi_ing eastwards, back to where it was 200 years ago. Recent superpowers seek to moderate the pace of change but the reality of popula0on and resource loca0ons are immoveable.
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The Future of Health and Healthcare | The Emerging View This is an edit of what was heard from mul0ple expert voices around the world – on the future of health and healthcare, how it is changing, what is
driving this change and how it may evolve over the next decade.
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Air Quality As more experience asthma and other breathing difficul0es, urban air quality becomes a visible issue and a major catalyst for change
– in transport policy, in energy source and in city design.
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Basic SanitaOon Despite major ini0a0ves, basic sanita0on is a gap for many and prevents wider social progress: Female educa0on stops at puberty, open public defeca0on
con0nues, water is contaminated and public health suffers as a consequence.
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Urban Obesity Mass urbanisa0on, reduced ac0vity and poor diets are accelera0ng the rise of obesity. As half popula0on is overweight, levels of obesity in ci0es are growing fast and the associated healthcare burden will account for 5% of global GDP.
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Reducing Food Waste Postharvest losses of foods in developing countries can amount to 30-‐50% of produc0on. In developed countries a similar propor0on is wasted: Minimising this loss, that could feed 3 billion people, is driven by beJer data collec0on.
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Data’s Impact on Health BeJer use of data and technology has the power to improve health,
transforming the quality and reducing the cost of health and care services. It can give pa0ents more control over their health and empower carers.
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Digital Autonomy Increasing access to more personal and group data allows individuals to take
informed views on their health. As informa0on is decoupled from the professions, the public become more specific about their needs.
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Data PrioriOsaOon An increasingly digital healthcare system is driven by access to credible data that is priori0sed above the noise. The value of such key data increases
as its ability to unlock opportuni0es and improve diagnosis rises.
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A Data Marketplace Data is a currency, it has a value and a price, and therefore requires a market place. An ecosystem for trading data is emerging and anything
that is informa0on is represented in a new data marketplace.
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Universal Healthcare Data Access Informa0on silos are connected via third par0es able to unify, mine and
discover new insights. Integrated public and private datasets provide holis0c views of the individual and value shi_s to decision-‐making analy0cs.
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Connected PredicOon We move from disparate, under-‐u0lized data sources to real-‐0me synthesis of mul0ple data plaforms with improved accuracy and speed. Predic0ve analy0cs
and gene0c profiling drive hyper-‐personaliza0on and early ac0on.
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Personalised Healthcare For the privileged few with access, personalised healthcare tailored around individual medical and pyscho-‐social needs provides therapies
that are beJer aligned with specific rather than generic profiles.
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The Rise of Machines The growth in the intelligence and capabili0es of machines presents both a threat and an opportunity. Greater automa0on frees up 0me, but also has the poten0al to threaten more jobs in managerial or administra0ve roles.
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Non-‐Linear EducaOon Paths Building on the success of open courses, there will be a rise in non-‐linear
educa0on paths. Success will be re-‐defined to include self-‐actualisa0on and micro-‐badging will gain credibility. Interna0onal benchmarks will emerge.
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Lifespan Limits On a global scale, life expectancies in developed regions are con0nuing to rise in the 21st century and, although most people assume that there are biological limits on life span, so far there is liJle evidence that we are approaching them.
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Quality End of Life As more seek to live longer but die fast, making the most of the end of our lives is a growing concern. Being healthier for longer and needing to work longer combine to be economically and socially more ac0ve in later years.
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ShiSing Values As the system comes under greater stress, old priori0es are rejected and an improved approach is adopted. Financial metrics are balanced with those beJer reflec0ng society’s values around happiness, health and well-‐being.
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ShiSing Risk and Responsibility Business becomes more ac0vely engaged in the wellbeing of its employees and
society. Greater responsibility for health is incen0vised by tax breaks and reimbursements designed to share risk, with lessons taken from elsewhere.
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Sustainable Healthcare With limited resources, rising demand and escala0ng costs, decoupling healthcare spend from economic growth is a global challenge. A more sustainable, integrated model may emerge from beyond the US/EU.
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Sustainable Healthcare With limited resources, rising demand and escala0ng costs, decoupling healthcare spend from economic growth is a global challenge. A more sustainable, integrated model may emerge from beyond the US/EU.
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Sustainable Healthcare With limited resources, rising demand and escala0ng costs, decoupling healthcare spend from economic growth is a global challenge. A more sustainable, integrated model may emerge from beyond the US/EU.
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GDP Per Capita PPP (Constant 2005 USD)
Healthcare Spe
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IncenOves in Flux Budgetary pressures con0nue and reimbursement models will need to change. There is greater emphasis on paying healthcare providers based on measurable
outcomes, rather than simply for the number of procedures they perform.
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CollecOve AcOon to Control Chronic Disease To stem the runaway costs of trea0ng chronic diseases, mul0ple stakeholders
collec0vely seek to halt key condi0ons: Remote monitoring, educa0onal programmes and focused budgets are all integrated around common aims.
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EnOtlement is not Universal The implica0ons for some are clear: we need a different healthcare model,
we need technology to really deliver improvements at scale and at low cost and to start reducing the level of cover to a good propor0on of some popula0ons.
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Healthcare for All Globally healthcare is already well over a $6 trillion industry, but nearly 70% of the world popula0on does not receive decent healthcare services.
We need a revolu0on in order to service the en0re market.
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Sources of Global SoluOons Global healthcare affordability will not come from the Unites States …
but rather from those na0ons of the world that have liJle today and have no choice but to perform at the highest levels possible in the future.
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