The Future of Energy in the U.S. and...

The Future of Energy in the U.S. and CaliforniaVicky HsuIntroduction to GISFall 2012 Final Presentation

Research Questions

1. Where does the U.S./California get its energy today?

2. How much energy are we consuming and what effect does it have on our air quality?

3. What is the solution for the future of energy?

Vicky Hsu - Fall 2012

State of the Electricity Market

• Power Plants▫ Non-Renewables Coal Oil Natural Gas

▫ Renewables Hydroelectric Solar Wind Nuclear Geothermal

• California more progressive than rest of the country▫ 2007 SB 1368 prevents utilities

from signing long-term contracts with or investing in dirty coal plants

▫ 2011 AB 32 mandates 1990 GHG

levels by 2020 33% GHG reduction


Coal


Coal = Non-Renewable Energy Source ³

Legend! Coal Plants

Oil/Gas


Oil/Gas = Non-Renewable Energy Source ³

Legend! Oil/Gas Plants

Hydroelectric


Hydroelectric = Renewable Energy Source ³

Legend! Hydroelectric Plants

Nuclear


Nuclear = Renewable Energy Source ³

Legend! Nuclear Plants

Solar


Solar = Renewable Energy Source ³

Legend! Solar Plants

Geothermal


Geothermal = Renewable Energy Source ³

Legend! Geothermal Plants

Wind


Wind = Renewable Energy Source ³

Legend! Wind Farms


8

13

223

240

10

72

2

20

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydroelectric

Solar

Wind

Nuclear

Geothermal

Total Number of Power Plants in California

1% 1%

63%21%

0%3% 7%

4%

Total Capacity (64,175 MW) Breakdown of Power Plants in California

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydroelectric

Solar

Wind

Nuclear

Geothermal

CA Power Plants by Type


Type! Coal

! Gas

! Geothermal

! Hydroelectric

! Nuclear

! Oil

! Solar_PV

! Solar_Thermal

! Wind

0 75 15037.5 Miles

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Renewable vs. Non-Renewable Power Plant Distribution by Size


Non-Renewable Power PlantsCapacity

! 1 - 50 MW

! 51 - 100 MW

! 101 - 500 MW

! 501 - 1000 MW

! 1001 - 3000 MW

Renewable Power PlantsCapacity

! 1 - 50 MW

! 51 - 100 MW

! 101 - 500 MW

! 501 - 1000 MW

! 1001 - 3000 MW³0 75 15037.5 Miles

Energy Production & ConsumptionVicky Hsu - Fall 2012

Yearly Consumption• Total: 272,645 GWh

Yearly Production• Total Power Plant Capacities: 64,175 MW• Assume plants run at 30-40% capacity.• These plants generated about 190,852 GWh.

<³

TerminologyWatt: unit of power, energy per timeWatt-hour: unit of energy

Energy Production0 - 500 GWh

501 - 1000 GWh

1001 - 5000 GWh

5001 - 10000 GWh

10001 - 100000 GWh

0 100 20050 Miles

Energy Consumption0 - 500 GWh

501 - 1000 GWh

1001 - 5000 GWh

5001 - 10000 GWh

10001 - 100000 GWh

0 100 20050 Miles

Where is California getting its electricity?• “In 2011, California produced 70% of the

electricity it uses; the rest was imported from the Pacific Northwest (10%) and the U.S. Southwest (20%). Natural gas is the main source for electricity generation at 45% of the total in-state electric generation system power.” Source: CA Energy Almanac


Air Quality Effects


Particulate Matter (PM)• 2.5 micrometers in diameter

or smaller = PM2.5• PM2.5 24-hr Standard (2006)

= 35 micrograms/cubic meter averaged over 24-hr

• Is the EPA PM2.5 24-hr Standard achieved in each county?

• Do the counties near National Parks achieve the EPA PM2.5 Standard?

0 100 20050 Miles³

Inyo

Kern

San Bernardino

Fresno

Siskiyou

Tulare

Riverside

Lassen

Modoc

Shasta

Mono

Trinity

Imperial

Humboldt

San Diego

Monterey

Tehama

Mendocino

Plumas

Los Angeles

Butte

Madera

Lake

Merced

Ventura

Kings

Yolo

Placer

Tuolumne

Glenn

Sonoma

Santa Barbara

El Dorado

Sierra

San Luis Obispo

Colusa

Mariposa

Napa

Marin

Stanislaus

Del Norte

Solano

NevadaYuba

San Benito

Alpine

Orange

San Joaquin

Santa Clara

Sutter

Calaveras

Alameda

SacramentoAmador

San Mateo

Contra Costa

Santa Cruz

Santa Barbara

Los Angeles

Los Angeles

Ventura

San FranciscoSan Francisco

LegendNational Parks

Attained PM 2.5/ Unclassifiable

Partial PM 2.5 Attainment

Non-Attainment

Directional Distribution of CA Power Plants by Type


Note: Nuclear and Solar PV power plants are missing because there are only 1 and 2 plants for each in California respectively.

LegendSolar_Thermal

Coal

Oil

Wind

Geothermal

Hydro

Gas³0 75 15037.5 Miles

Non-Renewable Power Plant locations vs. Air Quality by County


³

Non-Renewable Power PlantsCapacity

! 1 - 50 MW

! 51 - 100 MW

! 101 - 500 MW

! 501 - 1000 MW

! 1001 - 3000 MW

Attained PM 2.5/ Unclassifiable

Partial PM 2.5 Attainment

Non-Attainment

0 100 20050 Miles

U.S./CA Energy Future in Natural Gas

• Natural Gas Plants are cleanest among all non-renewables

• More readily accepted than renewable technology

• Improvements in technology▫ Drilling/Fracking▫ Combined Cycle Plants

• Reduce dependency on foreign oil imports


Huntington Beach Natural Gas Power Plant

Natural Gas


212

26 35

137

174

219

0

50

100

150

200

250

1940-1949 1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009

# N

atu

ral G

as P

lan

ts

Year

Total Number of Natural Gas Power Plantsin California

Natural Gas


0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Cap

acit

y (M

W)

Year

Total Capacity of Natural Gas Power Plantsin California

2020: U.S. Net Exporter of Natural Gas

Time SeriesGrowth ofNatural GasPower Plants


Natural Gas Power PlantsCapacity

$ 1 - 10 MW

$ 11 - 20 MW

$ 21 - 50 MW

$ 51 - 100 MW

$ 101 - 1500 MW

$ 1501 - 3000 MW

³0 75 15037.5 Miles

Input Raster Files for Spatial Analysis


National Parks Raster


Population by County

Raster

Population by County

Raster

Major Roads Raster

Major Roads Raster

Location for Natural Gas Power

Plant

Location for Natural Gas Power

Plant

Goal: Find the best location for a natural gas power plant based on the following three criteria.

Major Roads Raster

• 25% Weight• Yellow zones preferred▫ Close to roads

• 10 categories• Equal Interval• Source: TIGER data



• 50% weight• Blue zones preferred▫ Far from parks

• 10 categories• Equal Interval• Source: EPA


Population by County Raster

• 25% Weight• Light Yellow preferred▫ Counties with low population

• 6 categories• Manual Breaks• Source: Census data


Preferred Zones for a Natural Gas Power Plant


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#

#

#

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Fresno, CA

Anaheim, CA

Oakland, CA

San Jose, CA

Santa Ana, CA

San Diego, CA

Sacramento, CA

Long Beach, CA

Los Angeles, CA

San Francisco, CA

Vicky Hsu - Fall 2012Natural Gas Power Plant Proximity to Top 10 Largest CA Cities

³Southern California

Northern California

Legend# Major CA Cities

! Existing Natural Gas Plant

• 65 of 223 gas plants are within a 20 mile city buffer

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#Oakland, CA

San Jose, CA

Sacramento, CA

San Francisco, CA

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Anaheim, CASanta Ana, CA

San Diego, CA

Long Beach, CA

Los Angeles, CA

0 30 6015 Miles

0 30 6015 Miles0 100 20050 Miles

List of Skills Used1. KML to Layer2. Join3. Clip4. Buffer

1. Select by Location5. Graduated Symbols6. Aggregate attribute field7. Merge8. Inset Map9. Charts/Images10. Original Data

1. Geocoded top 10 largest cities11. Spatial Statistics

1. Directional Distribution12. Spatial Analysis Tools

1. Feature to Raster2. Euclidean Distance3. Reclassify4. Map Algebra

13. Time based analysis

Sources:www.globalenergyobservatory.orgEPA websiteCA Energy Commission websiteWall Street Journal article on natural gas

Thanks!

Any questions?


Appendix: Modeling


Appendix: Geocoded CitiesVicky Hsu - Fall 2012

The Future of Energy in the U.S. and...

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