The Future of Cities: what will cities look like in 2065?

The Future of Cities: What will cities look like in 2065?

Sir Mark WalportChief Scientific Adviser to HM Government

British Science Festival

Knowledge translated to economic advantage

Infrastructure resilience

Underpinning policy with evidence

Science for emergencies

Advocacy and leadership for science

Government Chief Scientific Adviser

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Image: iStockphoto


Role of the Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government

Report to the Prime Minister and Cabinet

Responsible for the quality of all S&T advice across the whole of Government

Lead a network of departmental Chief Scientific Advisers

Head of the Science and Engineering Profession in the Civil Service

Supported by the Government Office for Science

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Image: iStockphoto

British Science Festival4

Looking at the future of cities has a long historyEugène Hénard, The Cities of the Future, published in,

American City January 1911


Capital cities: striking a balance

“It is the cities which exhaust the state and are the cause of its weakness…- Rousseau, Emile, 1762

Map of Paris by Nicolas de Fer, circa 1700

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Joseph Chamberlain

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Joseph Chamberlain19th Century British politician

and statesman

Elected Mayor of Birmingham in 1873

Promoted many civic improvements

Forcibly purchased Birmingham’s waterworks, as the water supply was considered a danger to public health

Campaigner for educational reform

Preferred to give local communities the responsibility to act on their own initiative

Left the town ‘parked, paved, assized, marketed, gas & watered and improved’ (Joseph Chamberlain)

Isobel Cave


Thinking of cities as complex entities

Patrick Geddes 19th century Scottish town

planner

Thinking of cities as a whole, with history and character taken into account.

Complex interactions between humans, their activities and the physical environment determine where people settle.

Regional planning should be responsive to these conditions in order to seek a balance between people and the environment.

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Mapping and open spaces

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Mapping poverty

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Charles Booth 19th century English

philanthropist and social researcher


Making room for nature

Lewis Mumford20th century American

historian, sociologist and philosopher of technology

Structure of modern cities partially responsible for many social problems

Culture and nature should thrive alongside technology in an ‘organic city’

Urban planning should emphasise an organic relationship between people and their living spaces

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Ebenezer Howard, Garden City, 1902Louis de Soissons, Diagram of general town-plan, Welwyn Garden City, 1920.

Economics drives development


What makes a sidewalk safe?

“…an immense laboratory of trial and error, failure and success…”

Jane JacobsThe death and life of great American cities

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Image: Amanda Orson Image: Sue Waters / CC BY-SA 2.0


The Changing Urban World

1950UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)

This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.

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30% Urban.

global pop.


1980

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The Changing Urban WorldThis graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding

100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.

UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)

40% Urban.

global pop.


2010

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52% Urban.

global pop.


2030

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61% Urban.

global pop.


2050

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72% Urban.

global pop.


1950

And looking closer at Europe...This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding


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2050

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Why are cities important?

Image: Centre for Cities, 2014


What is a city?

Physical components of cities include:

▪ Physical boundaries▪ Population size▪ Hinterland▪ Natural infrastructure▪ Built infrastructure▪ Transport links to other cities &

countries

Map shows alternative geographic boundaries of cities using different statistical thresholds

There are many possible definitions

Source: Arcaute, E., Ferguson, P. et al arXiv:1301.1674 [physics.soc-ph]

Travel to work data from Census 2001

http://arxiv.org/abs/1301.1674


Cities emerge from the demand for populations to interact and are about people:

• Poverty and wealth• Culture and diversity• Social inclusion/exclusion• Crime• Demographics, e.g., ageing population• Identity • Overlapping systems of governance• Legal designation

More than infrastructure

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Image: Julian Mason/CC BY 2.0

Image: iStockphoto


Plenty of urban issues


Current Trends in the UK

Distinct divide in North-South productivity and employment.

London is outperforming the rest of the UK economy.

Our largest cities lag behind London in terms of their performance – and lag behind their European rivals in terms of levels of GDP per capita achieved.

Cities do not work in isolation – the networks and interactions between them are important.

Source: ONS, Regional Economic Indicators - March 2013

GROWTH IN OUTPUT (NOMINAL GROSS VALUE ADDED) 2007-2011

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There are many core questions, including:

What is a successful city? How do cities grow and develop? Can we make cities more sustainable? What are the options for city governance? How will city ambitions relate to national

frameworks?

Future of Cities project

Project aim:

Provide central and local government with an evidence base to support decisions in the short term which will lead to positive outcomes for cities in the long term

Living in Cities

Urban Economies

Urban Metabolism

Urban Form& Infrastructure

Urban Governance

Science of Cities

6 KEY THEMES


• Demography -ageing population• Economic competitiveness• Governance• Climate change• Technology• Sustainability – energy, waste• Resilience• International competition• Network of cities

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HOUSEHOLD INCOME PER WEEK,

ENGLAND AND WALES (GBP)

Future challenges and opportunities

What are the key enablers of success for different cities?

What are their most important decisions in preparing for the future?


We are engaging with a broad range of stakeholders through working papers, seminars, workshops and futures

exercises to develop the evidence base.

WorkshopsWorking papers

City visits City futures Academics

Central Government

Practitioners

Young people

Local Authorities

Major employers

Third Sector

Future Cities Catapult + many

others

Institutes

Future of Cities project

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Meetings with 19 cities with

representatives from:

Local Governments and the Public Sector

Universities

Local Employers / Private Sector

Local Charities / Third Sector

City Seminars

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Prominent emerging themes:

Social disparitiesClose proximity of richest and most deprived areas; how to alleviate social disparity

Employment (and skills)Future employment trends would shape city; Skills disparities

TransportInter/intra city links needed; importance of connectivity

GovernanceCoherent leadership and collaboration needed for progressCalls for greater local government autonomy

IdentityDo people identify most strongly with a city, a region, or a country?

The groups were encouraged to continue the process and commission their own local foresight projects to look at the future of their city.

What makes a city ‘sticky’?

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Birmingham City Seminar

Demographic changeBirmingham is the youngest city in Europe

DiversitySuper diversity and super connectivity are strengths for the city

EmploymentBelow average employment rate of 63% (UK av. 71%)But above average employment growth rate of +1.1% (UK av. of +0.8%)

Relationships with other UK towns and citiesLondon and the restLiverpool-ManchesterNewcastle-Sunderland-GatesheadBirmingham-Solihull

Governance and vision

LiveabilityPeople are attracted by culture and entertainment, not just work

WorkType of future work needs to be determined as it dictates demographies and housing

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Connectivity HS2


Research Themes

Living in cities Urban Economies Urban Metabolism

Urban Form & Infrastructure

Urban Governance Science of cities

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Living in cities

Science of cities



Urban Governance

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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 208055

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

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Variant projection High Population High Migration High Fertiliy High Life ExpectancyPrincipal Low Life Expectancy Low Fertility Low Migration Low Population

Millions

The population will continue to increase.

Uncertainty regarding how much higher the population will be by 2065.

UK will potentially be EU’s most populous country by 2060.

Increasing population

80.6M

64.5M

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Source: ONS (2012)


Increasingly diverse population, across the UK.

By 2065, most UK cities will have levels of ethnic diversity similar to levels currently experienced in Birmingham.

This is not a new phenomenon. UK cities have long had continuously changing and diversifying demographic profiles.

Increasing diversity

How do we develop cities to prevent the marginalisation and exclusion of groups of their residents?

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Image: iStockphoto


By 2065, there will be a major increase in the number of people aged over 75 in the UK.

Ageing in cities is slower than elsewhere.

Significant impact on the design and operation of our towns and cities.

Ageing population8%

INCREASE

75+

0.8%INCREASE

65-75S

CHANGES IN THE PROPORTION OF AGE COHORT GROUPS OF

THE UK POPULATION 2014-2065

2.6%DECREASE

15-29S

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Ageing population

How should cities be adapted to provide attractive living and working environments for the elderly?

Could we reinvent the family home?

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Image: Patrick Vale, RIBA (2013)


Where will people live?

There are distinctive age-related migration patterns.

The trend for older people to move to coastal towns is expected to continue.

Graduate talent, age 20-30 predominantly moves to London.

Majority of people leaving London (pre-retirement) move to Greater South East region.

Where will people choose to live in the future? At what point during their life?

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Net migration in and out of London, 2009-2012

Centre for Cities, 2014


Liveability is key

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Image: London Legacy Development Corporation


Urban Economies

Science of cities



Urban Governance

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Changing future of work

New technologies will change the geographies of production. 3D printing

ICT continues to change travel patterns and enables distance working-living lifestyles

The rise of ‘third spaces’ for people to meet, communicate and work will continue: e.g. coffee shops as a working environment ‘coffices’

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Image: Jonathan Juursema/CC BY-SA 3.0


Evolving skills & education

Skills base is hugely important to the adaptability of our cities.

Increasing skills gaps are reported. E.g. coding.

Increasing numbers of older and ethnically diverse workforce to be included in employment.

What skills and knowledge should we invest in now to enable the urban economies of 2050 onwards?

How will UK cities cooperatively enhance UK’s competitiveness?

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Image: Alfrmoldavie/CC BY-SA 3.0


Urban Metabolism

Science of cities



Urban Governance

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Urban Metabolism

Cities consume huge amounts of materials and resources.

Cities potentially offer more resource-efficient living than non-cities.

Major issues of vulnerability and risk to disruptions in supply chains.

Image: Guy Erwood


Reduced water use

By 2050 parts of the UK could experience an annual reduction in river flows of 15%, and as much as 80% in some catchments during the summer. There will, however, be heavier rainfall in winters.

Coupled with population growth, this will increase water demand in hotter seasons, with greatest water stress projected in the populous Greater South East.

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Changing energy generation

The UK is currently a net importer of energy and exposed to vulnerabilities to supply disruptions.

UK cities will increasingly:

• Integrate decentralised modes of energy generation.

• Deploy smart grids linked into smart meters and smart appliances.

• Develop zero carbon homes and building to reduce the energy footprint of the built environment.

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Image: Guerito/CC BY-NC 2.0



Science of cities



Urban Governance

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Increasing degrees of integration and interdependency

Electricity, waste, transport and water infrastructure will exchange resources and information across sector boundaries.

Improved efficiency and quality of service provision.

Reductions in the enormous amounts of waste we produce.

Image: Ine Steenmans


New types of mobility

We will use smaller-scale, autonomous, low-carbon personal transport.

The bicycle will remain popular!

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Image: Hawkins Brown


High speed and high capacity rail connections between more of the UK’s cities will crucially impact economic and social development.

Increased connectivity

Image: ARUP


Much of the spatial layout of cities will be the same – it is highly durable.

City centres will have re-urbanised – UK cities will see higher densities of development.

Denser, compacter and greener urban forms will have huge impacts on people’s health and sense of belonging.

If 75% of those currently failing to meet minimum daily exercise levels did meet recommended levels of walking, £675 million could be saved per year.

Image: Space Syntax

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Influence of urban form


Urban Governance

Science of cities



Urban Governance


Diverse urban governance

People will retain a sense of national identity but will increasingly affiliate with the city within which they live.

Many young and ethnic minority groups already have such city-centric sense of belonging.

How will the increasingly diverse city manage effective and equitable representation for all?


City leadership

Cities will likely have greater autonomy in their decision-making.

We will likely have an even greater diversity of governance arrangements in cities.

This diversity will better reflect their individual cultures and histories – not all of our cities voted for mayors!

Who makes decisions?

How does city leadership need to evolve?

What tools does leadership need?


City regions as unitsMetropolitan areas can yield ineffective spatial units for service provision, e.g. in transport, education.

City-regions support cross-boundary coordination across large urban areas. They will significantly influence future forms of city governance structures.

They are, however, difficult to define.

How do we balance enhanced accountability of smaller units of governance and the difficulty in coordinating or achieving consensus on bigger issues across a city-region? Image: M J Richardson/CC BY-SA 2.0


Science of Cities

Science of cities



Urban Governance


The Internet of Things

Things as well as people are highly connected, yielding ‘Big Data’.

New age of data & technology brings potential to improve design and operation of cities.

This will not be without issues: Privacy, Democracy?

How to integrate technocratic and democratic cities?

Draft


Experience of the city will change

Augmented reality, seamless mobility and mobile social networking will be part of our everyday movements and life.

Image: 20fourlabs.com


Real-time engaging of citizens

The role of citizens will change. Citizen will enjoy more direct involvement in discussions around urban spaces.

Real-time data analysis will enable us to manage cities with greater responsiveness.

Reactions to policies, announcements will be gauged closer to real-time.


Living in citiesUrban

Metabolism


Urban Governance

Science of cities

CITIES

Urban Economies

But it is all interrelated!


Interrelatedness

The nature of the city of 2065’s challenges and opportunities is one of interrelatedness.

Some issues continually emerge from these relationships of influence: quality of life, competitiveness, sustainability, resilience.

Do we have the data and skills to better plan for the future of such interrelated cities?


Visions for 2065: Digital City


Visions for 2065: Liveable City


“My purpose is to inquire into the influence which the progress of modern science and industry may exercise upon the planning, and particularly upon the aspect, of the Cities of the Future…The Cities of Tomorrow will be more readily susceptible to transformation and adornment than the Cities of Yesterday.”

Eugene Hénard (1910)

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@uksciencechief

www.gov.uk/go-science

Every effort has been made to trace copyright holders and to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material. We apologise for any errors or omissions in the included attributions and would be grateful if notified of any corrections that should be incorporated in future versions of this slide set. We can be contacted through [email protected].

The Future of Cities: what will cities look like in 2065?

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