The Future of China

1. Party2. Economy3. Political Development

1. The Party

Ideology

Confucius Mao Deng221 BC-1911 1949-76 1978--

Deng Xiaoping Theory

1. “socialist market economy”2. Priority on economic development

(1982 speech)3. Nationalism: Return China to its

rightful powerful position4. CPC Leadership

Lessons of 1989-1991 (official in 2004)(lessons of collapse of Communism in

Europe and Soviet Union)

1. Economic Reform2. Political reform3. Adaptive Party

15th Party Congress 1997

• “Hold High The Great Banner of Deng Xiaoping Theory for an All-Round Advancement of the Cause of Building Socialism with Chinese Characteristics into the 21st Century.”

• Deng Xiaoping Theory becomes official

16th Party Congress 2002(for reference only)

Politburo Standing Committee Changes3rd Generation 1997-20021. General Secretary Jiang Zemin (President) as

leader Jiang is both a reformer and conservative2. Li Peng (Chair NPC) leader of conservative faction3. Zhu Rongji (Premier) a leader of reformer faction4. Li Ruihuan, pro-reform5. Hu Jintao, middle of the road, to hedge his bets6. Wei Jianxing7. Li Langing

4th Generation PSC: 2002(for reference only)

4th Generation 2002-20071. General Secretary Hu Jintao (President) (chosen by Deng

Xiaoping as Jiang’s successor)2. Wu Bangguo (Chair NPC) (ally of Jiang)3. Wen Jiabao (Premier) (ally of Hu)4. Jia Qinglin (strong ally of Jiang)5. Zeng Qinghong (strongest ally of Jiang, but seems to have

become more independent in power)6. Huang Ju (Vice premier) (strong ally of Jiang)7. Wu Guanzheng (ally of Jiang)8. Li Changchun (ally of Jiang)9. Luo Gan (protege of Li Peng)

4th Generation PSC 2002-20124th Generation16th Party Congress 20021. General Secretary Hu

Jintao (President)2. Wu Bangguo (Chair NPC)3. Wen Jiabao (Premier)4. Jia Qinglin5. Zeng Qinghong6. Huang Ju7. Wu Guanzheng8. Li Changchun9. Luo Gan

4th Generation17th Party Congress 20071. Hu Jintao2. Wu Bangguo3. Wen Jiabao4. Jia Qinglin5. Li Changchun6. Xi Jinping****7. Li Keqiang***8. He Guoqiang9. Zhou Yongkang

4th Generation to 5th Generation4th Generation17th Party Congress 20071. Hu Jintao2. Wu Bangguo3. Wen Jiabao4. Jia Qinglin5. Li Changchun6. Xi Jinping7. Li Keqiang8. He Guoqiang9. Zhou Yongkang

5th Generation 18th Party Congress 2012

1. Xi Jinping2. Li Keqiang3. Zhang Dejiang4. Yu Zhengsheng5. Liu Yunshan6. Wang Qishan7. Zhang Gaoli

Xi Jinping (2012-2022)

• The most powerful leader since Deng?• Consensus choice• His policies– Anti-corruption– Party ideology– campaigns

Party Decentralization?

• Intraparty Democracy• Democratic Centralism– Building Political Democracy, White Paper

• Regional Party Power• Challenges to the CPC?– Falun Gong 1999

2. The Economy

• Can economic growth last forever?– Recession– depression

• What happens when the economy slows down?

Economics and Politics

economic political economic political growth support downturn change

Political Impact of the Great Depression

advanced welfare state (Europe, N. Am.)

economic political Worldcollapse upheaval War II

fascism (Germany, Japan, Italy)

Political Impact of the 1997 East Asian Crash

Incumbents lose:S. Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Philippines

economic political Soft authoritarian crisis upheaval survival

Malaysia, Singapore

Dictator overthrown:Indonesia

3. Political Development

Political Stability

• Priority on stability• Village Elections• Social Unrest (“mass group incidents”)

The Questions?

• Can you create politically agnostic capitalists?

• How long can people remain politically agnostic?

Two Models for China’s Future

1. Singapore 2. Taiwan“Guided Democracy” Democratic

TransitionSoft Authoritarianism

1. Singapore as a model

• Internal Security Act

• Lee Kuan Yew

2. Democratic Transition Model

Economic freedoms demands for Economic growth political

freedom

Growth of middle classExposure to diverse ideasExposure to middle class and elites of Liberal-

democraciesWealth in private hands

Time

Taiwan and South KoreaDemocratic Transitions in 1980s

Democracy is not as boring as you think

Introducing Legislation

Filibuster

Taipei 101

Democratic Transition Model

Economic freedoms demands for Economic growth political

freedom

Growth of middle classExposure to diverse ideasExposure to middle class and elites of Liberal-

democraciesWealth in private hands

Time

Democratic Transition ModelEconomic freedoms demands forEconomic growth political

freedom

Growth of middle classExposure to diverse ideasExposure to middle class and elites of Liberal-democraciesWealth in private hands

Time

economic/political crisis

Scenarios1. Peaceful evolution to Democracy2. Political Economic Crisis leads to rapid

change1. Another crackdown2. CPC debate leads to reform

1. Revolution from above2. CPC becomes two parties

3. CPC debate leads to its collapse4. CPC debate leads to hardliners imprisoning

pragmatists: rollback

Priorities

1. Stability2. Economic Growth3. Chinese Power