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The Future of Administrative Data ICES III End Panel Discussion Don Royce Statistics Canada June...
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Transcript of The Future of Administrative Data ICES III End Panel Discussion Don Royce Statistics Canada June...
The Future of Administrative Data ICES III End Panel Discussion
Don Royce
Statistics Canada
June 2007
Outline
Basic issues in the use of tax data
A short history of the use of tax data in business surveys at Statistics Canada
Future challenges
Uses of tax data (Brackstone 1987)
Direct tabulation
Indirect estimation
Survey frames and sample design
Survey evaluation
Issues in using tax data (ibid)
CoverageContentConcepts/definitionsSmall domain estimates/samplingQuality controlCostFrequencyTimelinessStabilityRespondent burden
A short history of tax data usage at Statistics Canada
Pre-1985:Tax data used to build sample frames (no centralized Business Register)Trade statistics based on administrative dataTax data program based on capturing two-phase samples of paper forms
1985 - 1988: The Business Survey Redesign Project (BSRP)Creation of centralized Business Register (BR) based on profiling, payroll deduction data and annual income tax dataRedesign of annual and sub-annual surveys Enhanced use of tax data by survey programs – but still based on paper forms
A short history (cont’d)
1991 - 1993: Two new data sourcesFederal government introduced the Goods and Services Tax (GST) - a form of VATTwo new variables available from payroll data -facilitated the redesign of the monthly Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours
1997 – the Big Bang:Project to Improve Provincial Economic Statistics (PIPES) to allocate new Harmonized Sales TaxInfusion of $42M in new fundsProvincial dimension implied additional response burden, so enhanced use of tax data became crucial
A short history (cont’d)
1997 – the Big Bang (cont’d):Introduction of a single Business Number (BN) by Canada Revenue Agency
Introduction of mandatory filing in a standard format (GIFI) for corporations
Introduction of North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)
Conversion of the BR to a BN basis, coded to NAICS
Creation of a new Tax Data Division (TDD)
Completion of many of the goals of the BSRP
Today: Infrastructure
Most business surveys use the Business Register as their frameUnified Enterprise Survey collects annual statisticsCommon “Chart of Accounts” connecting annual income tax data, survey data and SNA conceptsA wide range of data (GST, payroll deduction, annual tax data) is available in (mostly) electronic form and linkable via the BNTax data are obtained and processed by TDD on an increasingly timely basis
Today: Uses
GST data replace significant portions of existing sub-annual samples for simple units (with ratio adjustment for delayed reporting) Annual tax data replace significant portions of annual samples of simple units (straight substitution)Payroll deduction data in combination with survey data produce estimates of average weekly earnings, etc.Tax data are used exclusively for very small “Take-None” unitsTax data are used for editing and imputation of survey dataExtensive use of tax data by the System of National Accounts (e.g., benchmarking of labour income)
Future challenges
Moving from retrofitting existing samples to an integrated survey/tax data design
Increasing the use of tax data for complex businesses
Use of tax data for specialized populations
Measuring data quality
Modeling/imputation – how much is too much?
Moving to an integrated survey / tax data design
Current approach (mostly) is to replace survey data with tax data for existing samples of simple units
Can we use tax data for the entire universe, in combination with a small sample survey to adjust for differences?
Much more data to process, change of culture for subject matter analysts
Tax data for complex businesses
Complex structures must often be broken down into their components, e.g., industry, province
Tax data are often only available for legal entities, not operational units
How well can we allocate tax data to industry and province levels?
Specialized populations
Canada Revenue Agency creates numerous files which we have not yet fully explored, for example:
Files covering the non-profit sector
Files covering trusts
Audit files, which may be useful for measuring the underground economy
Work is just beginning on this
Measuring Quality
Need to recognize the particular characteristics of administrative data, for example:
Methods for calculating response rates for surveys combining survey and tax data
Methods for measuring the variance due to imputation
Methods that take into account the use of modeling
Difficult or impossible to follow up respondents to validate administrative data
Modeling and imputation - how much is too much?
Modeling is used in calendarization, estimation, imputation, allocation of tax data to adjust for various deficiencies (e.g., timeliness, coverage issues)We often conduct studies, conclude that the results are not much different, then assume that modeling is okay – different paradigm than survey samplingWe need to make sure that assumptions are explicit, the models are robust, and that they are checked on a regular basis
Conclusion
Tremendous progress in using tax data in business surveys in the past 20 years
The need to use tax data will increase as pressures to reduce costs and response burden continue
Many exciting methodological challenges ahead
Pour plus d’information, veuillez contacter
For more Information please contact
Visit our web site atwww.statcan.ca