The Future is Weird: Media, Technology & Configurable Culture

The Future is WeirdMedia, Technology and Configurable CultureDr. Aram Sinnreich Rutgers School of Communication & Information

Presented to Daimler Group, September 11, 2013

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Wednesday, September 11, 13

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A Change is Gonna Come

NOW 3 YEARS 5+ YEARS


The Near Term2013-2015


Mobile Interfaces

THE FACTS

• 6.85 BILLION MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS WORLDWIDE• 80% OF GLOBAL POPULATION HAS A MOBILE DEVICE• 56% OF US ADULTS OWN SMARTPHONES• 79% US CAR OWNERS USE DIGITAL DEVICES IN-CAR• MOBILE = 12% OF MEDIA CONSUMPTION• MOBILE = 19% OF US DIGITAL AD SPEND• 80% OF SMARTPHONE USERS SHOP ON THEIR DEVICES


Mobile InterfacesTHE CONSEQUENCESPROS• DRIVE TIME BECOMES INTERACTIVE• CUSTOM MUSIC, NEWS, MARKETING, NAVIGATIONCONS• LIMITED ATTENTION = LIMITED VALUE• 10% OF CAR INJURIES DUE TO DISTRACTED DRIVINGX-FACTORS• MAPS, TRAFFIC, ZIPCAR, UBER, PAYMOBILE CHANGE THE AUTOMOTIVE ECOLOGY


The CloudTHE FACTS

• CLOUD COMPUTING IS $150 BILLION IN 2013• 70% OF BUSINESSES MOVING TO CLOUD• 36% OF CONSUMER DATA IN THE CLOUD BY 2016• 320 MILLION APPLE ICLOUD USERS ALONE• 12M SITES HOSTED ON AWS, 1/3 OF ALL VISITS


The CloudTHE CONSEQUENCES

PROS• CAR BECOMES A CENTRAL HUB IN CONSUMERS’ DIGITAL LIVES• VALUE CHAIN EFFICIENCIES (SUPPLIERS/DEALERS/CONSUMERS)CONS• INCREASED THIRD-PARTY COMPETITION FOR CONSUMER• SECURITY & PRIVACY CONCERNSX-FACTORS• AUTOMOTIVE APPLICATIONS OF “BIG DATA”• ROLE OF AUTO CO. IN HOSTING?


Configurable CultureTHE FACTS

• 65% US & 82% GLOBAL ADULTS USE THIS STUFF• USAGE SKYROCKETS WITH HIGHER INCOME LEVELS• 5-10 MILLION YOUTUBE VIDS FOR “MERCEDES BENZ”• LARGE & GROWING DIY/MODDING COMMUNITY


Configurable CultureTHE CONSEQUENCES

PROS• HIGHLY ENGAGED CUSTOMER BASE• CONSUMER BRANDS = ENTERTAINMENT• “PIMP MY RIDE” MENTALITY DEEPENS AFFINITYCONS• LOSS OF CONTROL OVER MESSAGING, BRANDING AND DESIGNX-FACTORS• CO-BRANDING OPPORTUNITIES FOR HARDWARE AND SOFTWARE

M U S I C , T E C H N O LO G Y, A N D T H E

RISE OF CONFIGURABLE CULTUREMASHED UP

ARAM SINNREICH


Social MediaTHE FACTS

• 1/6 OF THE GLOBAL POPULATION IS ON FACEBOOK EACH MONTH• 1/6 OF FACEBOOK USERS ARE MOBILE-ONLY• 2.5 BILLION PIECES OF CONTENT SHARED DAILY ON FB• 70% OF BUSINESSES HAVE GAINED CUSTOMERS VIA FB• 550 MILLION TWITTER USERS, 500 MILLION TWEETS/DAY• 25% OF USERS WHO COMPLAIN ABOUT PRODUCTS VIA TWITTER EXPECT A RESPONSE WITHIN AN HOUR• FASTEST GROWING TWITTER DEMO = 55-64 YEAR OLDS


Social MediaTHE CONSEQUENCESPROS• OPPORTUNITY FOR DIRECT, REAL-TIME ENGAGEMENT WITH CUSTOMER BASE (FOR BETTER AND FOR WORSE)• EARNED MEDIA VIA VIRAL MARKETING• BRAND HALO (M-B IS A FORTUNE “SOCIAL MEDIA SUPERSTAR”)CONS• INABILITY TO CONTAIN NEGATIVE PR• SOCIAL FATIGUE: AT BEST, A MOVING TARGET• HUMAN COSTS DON’T SCALE WELLX-FACTORS• “GAMIFICATION” OF TRANSPORTATION?


IP & Open SourceTHE FACTS

• IP ACCOUNTS FOR ABOUT HALF THE VALUE OF PUBLIC CO’S• 2012: RED HAT BOOKED $1B IN REVENUE• HALF A BILLION WORKS ARE CC LICENSED, INCLUDING:

• WIKIPEDIA• WHITEHOUSE.GOV• FLICKR• AL JAZEERA

• 3/4 OF WEB SITES RUN ON OPEN SOURCE• “COPYFIGHT” CONTRASTS VALUES OF OPENNESS & PROTECTION• US REGISTER OF COPYRIGHTS: IP “PRESSURE AND GRIDLOCK”


IP & Open SourceTHE CONSEQUENCESPROS• RESEARCHERS, MODDERS & BRAND ADVOCATES DO YOUR WORK FOR YOU• LOWER PRODUCTION/MARKETING COSTS USING OPEN SOURCECONS• STRONGER IP = INCREASED RISK, LIABILITY, LAWYERS’ FEESX-FACTORS• RIGHT OF FIRST SALE?• INDUCEMENT?• ANTI-COMMONS RISK TO INNOVATION?


The Middle Term2015-2018


Augmented InterfacesTHE FACTS• SAMSUNG GALAXY GEAR LAUNCH: SEPT 25, 2013• GOOGLE GLASS LAUNCH: 2014• 11% OF STUDENTS HAVE USED AR• 1 MILLION LAYAR DOWNLOADS/MONTH• ABI: 485 MILLION WEARABLE DEVICES SOLD BY 2018• IMS: $6 BILLION MARKET BY 2016


Augmented InterfacesTHE CONSEQUENCESPROS• COUNTLESS TRANSPORTATION APPLICATIONS• REAL-TIME SENSOR DATA CAN IMPROVE DRIVER EXPERIENCECONS• LARGELY BEYOND OEM SCOPEX-FACTORS• IMPACT ON DISTRACTED DRIVING?• INTEGRATION WITH AUTOMOTIVE SYSTEMS?


Mesh NetworksTHE FACTS• DOZENS OF EMERGING STANDARDS• OPERABLE VIA WIFI, BLUETOOTH, GSM• RESISTANT TO CENSORSHIP & SURVEILLANCE• POTENTIAL TO AUGMENT – OR DISINTERMEDIATE – WIRELESS CARRIERS• COMMOTION DEPLOYED SUCCESSFULLY IN NYC AFTER HURRICANE SANDY• GUIFI: 22,000 NODES, 40,000 KM


Mesh NetworksTHE CONSEQUENCESPROS• POTENTIAL FOR AUTO-BASED MESH• PLATFORM FOR “INTERNET OF THINGS”• NETWORK SERVICES FOR EMERGING MARKETSCONS• SPEED/LATENCY ISSUES• POTENTIAL FOR NETWORK FRAGMENTATIONX-FACTORS• SAFE HARBOR FOR MESH PROVIDERS?


3D PrintingTHE FACTS• OVER 150 COMPOUNDS CAN CURRENTLY BE PRINTED, FROM CHOCOLATE TO POLYMERS• WOHLERS: 3D PRINTERS = $10.8B IN 2021• LUX: 3D PRINTED PARTS = $8.4B IN 2025• PRICE IN 2008: $10,000• PRICE IN 2013: $200• FEB 2014: SINTERING PATENT EXPIRES• PRINTED GUN: 100,000 DL’S IN 2 DAYS• MILLIONS OF BLUEPRINTS IN A FEW YEARS


3D PrintingTHE CONSEQUENCESPROS• MASSIVE SHIFT IN MANUFACTURING PARADIGM• CONSUMERS CAN REPLACE/AUGMENT PARTSCONS• **SAME AS ABOVE**X-FACTORS• MASS ADOPTION COULD UNDERMINE GLOBAL SHIPPING DEMAND, INFLUENCE AUTO INDUSTRY• COMING WARS OVER (C) AND “PIRACY”


RTB & Targeting

THE FACTS• RTB = 20-25% OF ONLINE DISPLAY ADVERTISING• EMARKETER: $8.7 BILLION IN U.S. IN 2017• EMARKETER: 180M VIDEO IMPRESSIONS IN 2017• MOBILE RTB GROWING RAPIDLY• “HYPER-TARGETING” ACROSS PLATFORMS BASED ON LOCATION, BEHAVIORAL DATA• NEXT STOP: TELEVISION


RTB & TargetingTHE CONSEQUENCESPROS• RTB ELIMINATES GUESSWORK FROM MARKETING• NETWORKED DRIVERS YIELD VALUABLE METADATACONS• PRIVACY BACKLASH NEARLY GUARANTEEDX-FACTORS• AUTO-BASED DATA COLLECTION TO FUEL 3RD-PARTY TARGETING?• REAL-TIME, LOCATION-TARGETED IN-CAR MESSAGING?• FRAUD, BRAND TARNISHMENT, DOMAIN-SQUATTING


Digital CurrencyTHE FACTS• PAYPAL TOTAL VOLUME = $145 BILLION• OVER 50 DEVICES NOW HAVE NFC• MOBILE PAY WILL HAVE GREATEST TRACTION IN EMERGING MARKETS• BITCOIN LAUNCHED 2008• BC PRICED AT $130, DOWN FROM $230• BC MARKET > $1 BILLION• GARTNER: MOBILE PAYMENTS = $721 BILLION BY 2017


Digital CurrencyTHE CONSEQUENCESPROS• LOWER BARRIERS INCREASE OVERALL VOLUME OF TRANSACTION• BOON TO SMALL BUSINESSESCONS• P2P CURRENCIES DIFFICULT TO REGULATEX-FACTORS• BEYOND EZPASS: AUTOMOBILE AS TRANSACTION HUB?


The Long Term2018-???


Integrated InterfacesFACTS & SPECULATION• 2012: FIRST AR CONTACT LENS• 2013: UW SCIENTIST CONTROLS ANOTHER SCIENTIST’S BODY NEURALLY• HUDS ALREADY AVAILABLE FROM GARMIN ($150), 2014 LAUNCH FOR MERCEDES-BENZ• KURZWEIL: YOUR BRAIN WILL CONNECT DIRECTLY TO THE CLOUD WITHIN 30 YEARS


Integrated InterfacesTHE CONSEQUENCESX-FACTORS• CYBORGEAN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DRIVER AND CAR• BLURRING LINE BETWEEN PHYSICAL AND DIGITAL SPACE• THE END OF MARKETING & ADVERTISING?• “TRAVEL” REDEFINED VIA VIRTUALITY?• WILL THE “SINGULARITY” HAPPEN?


Autonomous CarsFACTS & SPECULATION• 2012: FIRST AUTONOMOUS LICENSE• 2013: GOOGLE ACQUIRES WAZE• 2013: DAIMLER/NOKIA PARTNER• 2014 MB S-CLASS COULD SELF-DRIVE• ABI, DAIMLER & NISSAN: 2020 TARGET YEAR FOR MAINSTREAM• IEEE: 75% OF CARS BY 2040• DRIVERLESS CARS NOW STREET LEGAL IN NEVADA, FLORIDA, CALIFORNIA


Autonomous CarsTHE CONSEQUENCESX-FACTORS• 25 BILLION HOURS/YEAR OF COMMUTING IN US• AT CURRENT HULU RATES, THIS IS WORTH $7.5 BILLION IN ATTENTION FOR IN-CAR SERVICES• MASSIVE SAFETY/EFFICIENCY BOOST• WHO OWNS THE NETWORK?• WHO OWNS THE DATA?• WHO IS LIABLE?• WHAT ABOUT HACKERS?


Thank you.Questions?Aram [email protected]: @aramsinnreich.com

This entire presentation is freely available under a Creative Commons 3.0 Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike license

M U S I C , T E C H N O LO G Y, A N D T H E

RISE OF CONFIGURABLE CULTUREMASHED UP

ARAM SINNREICH




The Future is Weird: Media, Technology & Configurable Culture

Technology

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