The Full Monty Hall
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Transcript of The Full Monty Hall
The Full Monty HallSomething something probability mind-blown
So who is this Monty Hall guy?
The Monty Hall Problem
The Monty Hall Problem
• A brain teaser loosely based on the game show Let’s Make a Deal
The Monty Hall Problem• The contestant is presented with three closed
doors and is asked to pick one
1 2 3
The Monty Hall Problem• The contestant is presented with three closed
doors and is asked to pick one
1 2 3
The Monty Hall Problem• Monty Hall opens a remaining door and reveals
a goat!
1 2 3
The Monty Hall Problem• Monty Hall then asks the contestant to either
stick with their choice or switch to the other door!
1 2 3
The Monty Hall Problem• Let’s say the contestant sticks with door 2…
1 2 3
The Monty Hall Problem• Let’s say the contestant sticks with door 2…
1 2 3
👍
The Monty Hall Problem• And so Monty reveals what’s behind door 1
1 2 3
👍
The Monty Hall Problem• And so Monty reveals what’s behind door 1
1 2 3
👍
The Monty Hall Problem• And the contestant loses
1 3
Is there a strategy to increase your chance of
winning to better than 50/50?
There are only two possible strategies: always
stick, or always switch
One of those strategies is better than the other
The Monty Hall Problem became famous as a question from a reader's letter quoted
in Marilyn vos Savant's "Ask Marilyn" column in Parade magazine in 1990
Vos Savant revealed the winning strategy
10,000 readers, including nearly 1,000 with PhDs, wrote to the magazine, most of them claiming vos
Savant was wrong
But the smarty-pants PhD students were wrong!
Probability Theory Deep Dive
Yeah, nahTo the codes!
[ this slide left intentionally blank ]
Live demo time!
In conclusion…
Switching is better
If you always switch, you’ll win the car ⅔ of the
time
The only way you will lose is if you pick the door
with the car at the start.You have a ⅓ chance of doing that. So ⅔ chance
of winning.
Thank you!James Sadler @freshtonic