The Freedom to Publish Opinion Poll Results June 15, 2012 Presented by Dr. Robert Chung Director of...
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Transcript of The Freedom to Publish Opinion Poll Results June 15, 2012 Presented by Dr. Robert Chung Director of...
The Freedom to Publish
Opinion Poll ResultsJune 15, 2012
Presented by
Dr. Robert ChungDirector of Public Opinion Programme,
The University of Hong Kong
This is the fifth study conducted by WAPOR and the first time executed by Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong.
Previous surveys were conducted in 1984, 1992, 1996 and 2002.
49 countries participated in 1984, 55 in 1992, 78 in 1996, 66 in 2002 and 85 in 2012.
Fieldwork period: April 11 to June 12, 2012.
85 countries/regions have participated, covering about 41% of 207 countries in the world according to UN.
The main themes of the 2012 survey are: Poll embargo prior to elections Restrictions for conducting exit polls and publication Awareness and conformity to codes or guidelines Evaluation of overall poll quality, problems of conducting
polls, etc.
Africa (4) : Egypt , Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa
Asia (27) : Bangladesh, Bhutan, Burma, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Macau, Malaysia, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Palestinian Territories, Philippines, Qatar, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, United Arab Emirates
Europe (35) : Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macedonia, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom
North America (8) : Canada, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico, Trinidad and Tobago, United States
South America (8) : Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela
Oceania (3) : Australia, Fiji, New Zealand
* Countries that participated in the 2002 survey are marked in red color.
Valid base = 83
Mean = 7 days (among 36 countries/regions
with blackout periods)
More than half of the countries/regions have NO blackout periods prior to elections.
26 countries/regions had no poll embargo in both 2002 and 2012
Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Malaysia, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, South Africa, Sweden, Thailand, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States
Change (no. of days)
Countries/regions Change (no. of days)
Countries/regions
-14 Slovakia +1 Bosnia and Herzegovina, Canada, Norway
-10 Switzerland +2 Brazil
-7 Bulgaria, Slovenia +5 Costa Rica, Romania, Russia, Venezuela
-5 Uruguay +6 Colombia
-4 Czech. Republic, Mexico +10 Taiwan
-2 South Korea +14 Argentina
-1 France, Israel, Nepal +15 Ukraine
0 Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Macedonia, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Turkey
+45 Honduras
34 countries/regions had poll embargo in both 2002 and 2012
Nearly 90% of the poll restrictions were initiated by Government agency or election administration office.
Valid base = 38* changes with 2002 survey
Valid base = 84
74% of the countries/regions expected to have no change in the rules regarding polls in the next 3-5 years.
58% of the countries/regions have to disclose geographical coverage and dates of interview as a means of code/self regulation.
Valid base = 85* Multiple answers allowed
9%
43%
22%
12%
32%
4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Exit polls cannot beconducted at all
They cannot beconducted inside the
polling station
They cannot beconducted outside close
to the polling station
No restriction but exitpolls have not beenconducted to date
No restriction and someexit polls have beenconducted to date
Don't know
% of total sample
43% of the countries/regions cannot conduct exit polls inside the polling station.
Valid base = 82* Multiple answers allowed
Countries where exit polls are
permitted
Cannot be conducted inside the
polling station
Cannot be conducted
outside close to the polling
station
No restriction but exit polls
have not been
conducted to date
No restriction and some exit polls have been
conducted to date
Don’t know
Africa (N=4) 1 0 1 2 0
Asia (N=27) 8 10 5 6 1
Europe (N=35) 19 3 2 14 2N. America (N=8) 3 1 0 2 0
S. America(N=8) 2 3 1 2 0
Oceania (N=3) 2 1 1 0 0
Total (N=82) 35 18 10 26 3
35 out of 75 countries/regions which can conduct exit polls have restrictions that exit polls cannot be conducted inside the polling station
Valid base = 75* Multiple answers allowed
49% of the countries/regions who conduct exit poll have legal restrictions that exit polls cannot be published before all polls in the country close.
Valid base = 78
* Multiple answers allowed
Valid base = 85
12 countries/regions (14%) have such restrictions. They are Chile, China, Egypt, El Salvador, Fiji, Jordan, Kuwait, Luxembourg, Nepal, Qatar, Singapore and United Arab Emirates.
Percentage
Yes, generally 45%
No, a few polls conform at least fairly well
32%
No poll conforms 4%
Don’t know 20%
45% conform generally to the respective codes and practices.
Percentage
Yes, generally 19%
No, but a few polls conform to other codes
4%
No other code 40%
Don’t know 38%
Valid base = 85
Valid base = 80
19% conform to other codes as well.
48% said their academics or general public can easily access poll results conducted by government.
Valid base = 60
19% think that the publication of unprofessional or unscientific poll findings not a problem.
Valid base = 59
67% think that unsatisfactory samples is the major problem in conducting polls.
Valid base = 58* Multiple answers allowed
43% think that the journalistic handling by their country’s mass media is of low general quality level.
Valid base = 58* changes with 2002 survey
46% countries has some kind of “blackout periods” for pre-election polls election polls, this calls for attention.
74% expected no change in next 3-5 years 21% either forbid exit poll or never conducted any 14% forbid specific questions or subjects in
general polls 18% considered polls conducted in their country to
be of high quality 43% considered the journalistic handling of polls
by their country’s mass media to be of low quality