Professor Tshilidzi Marwala

Vice Chancellor and Principal, University of Johannesburg, Republic of South Africa

South African Film Summit

4 February 2019

THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

AND SOCIETY

Contents

• Industrial revolutions

• Key technologies that are driving the fourth industrial revolution

• Fourth Industrial Revolution and Economics

• Fourth Industrial Revolution and Politics

• Fourth Industrial and Psychology

• Fourth Industrial Revolution and Medical Sciences

• Fourth Industrial Revolution and Engineering

Contents

3Professor Tshilidzi Marwala l University of Johannesburg

History of the Future: Past Futures

02

01DNA: Newton and James Wattsteam mechanization, etc.

1st Industrial Revolution: knowledge formulation

2nd Industrial Revolution: knowledge evolutionDNA: Electro-Magnetism by Faraday, Maxwell and Hans Christian Ørstedelectrification, mass production, etc.

03DNA: Transistors based on Semi-Conductors by Bardeen, Brattain and Shockley

computerization, Internetization, etc.

3rd Industrial Revolution: knowledge distribution

04DNA: Artificial Intelligence by Turing

cyber-physical systemization, artificial cognization, robotization, etc.

4th Industrial Revolution: knowledge mutation

4Professor Tshilidzi Marwala l University of Johannesburg

Technologies for the fourth industrial revolution

• Cyber:

• Artificial Intelligence, IoT, Blockchain, Quantum

• Physical:

• 3-D Printing; Robotics; New Materials: graphene

• Biological:

• Biomedical Engineering; Biotechnology

5Professor Tshilidzi Marwala l University of Johannesburg

Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning and Deep Learning

Soft

Computing

Computational

Intelligence

Deep

Learning

Machine Learning

Artificial Intelligence

Big Data = Using AI to analyze large amount of data

6Professor Tshilidzi Marwala l University of Johannesburg

Soft Computing: Bluff and Detect Bluffing (Fraud detection)

Fuzzy Logic, Multi-Agent System, Mechanism Design

7

Computational Intelligence: Ant Colony Optimization

Professor Tshilidzi Marwala l University of Johannesburg

• Eugene Marais - Die Siel van die Mier; Ant movement deposits a trail of pheromones; The path with the strongest pheromones then is the shortest path between one point to another; Particle swarm optimization has found use in applications such as scheduling

8Professor Tshilidzi Marwala l University of Johannesburg

Machine Learning: Statistical Approach to AI

𝒚𝒌 = 𝒇𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒑𝒖𝒕

𝒋=𝟎

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𝒘𝒌𝒋𝒇𝒉𝒊𝒅𝒅𝒆𝒏

𝒊=𝟎

𝑵

𝒘𝒊𝒋𝒙𝒊

Citation: http://news.unchealthcare.org/images/science-

images/neuron-illustration-1/image_view_fullscreenCitation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence

9Professor Tshilidzi Marwala l University of Johannesburg

Deep Learning

10Professor Tshilidzi Marwala l University of Johannesburg

Citation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZxdao4s6rg

11Professor Tshilidzi Marwala l University of Johannesburg

KAIST Robot

• Learns

• Senses

• Reacts

• Drives

• Walks

• Almost human.

• It is artificially intelligent.

• Does it fall in love?

• Is it conscious?

• Can it be recruited by COSATU?

• Can it respond to the call: “Robots of the world unite, you have nothing to lose but

chains”?

12Professor Tshilidzi Marwala l University of Johannesburg

Economics

• Demand and Supply

• Rational Expectations

and Rational Choice

• Bounded Rationality and

Behavioral Economics

• Game Theory and

Mechanism Design

• Causality and

Counterfactuals

• Pricing and Portfolio

Theory

13Professor Tshilidzi Marwala l University of Johannesburg

Decision Making with Incomplete/Imperfect Information:Prediction of HIV Risk

Tshilidzi Marwala,

Rendani Mbuvha. (South

African Provisional

Patent 2018/06344) A

system and method for

imputing missing data in

a dataset, a method and

system for determining a

health condition of a

person, and a method

and system of

calculating an insurance

premium.

14Professor Tshilidzi Marwala l University of Johannesburg

Political Science: Interstate conflict

马瓦拉

15Professor Tshilidzi Marwala l University of Johannesburg

Psychology Human-Robots Interaction

• Impact on behavior of people resulting in

interaction with machines

• Cognitive development and technology

• 4IR and absent parents (e.g. fathers)

• 4IR and Job Insecurity

• 4IR and Spending Habits

• AI and Behavioral Economics

16Professor Tshilidzi Marwala l University of Johannesburg

Medical Application: Detection of epilepsy

17Professor Tshilidzi Marwala l University of Johannesburg

Medical Application: Artificial larynx

18Professor Tshilidzi Marwala l University of Johannesburg

Medical Application: Pulmonary embolism

19Professor Tshilidzi Marwala l University of Johannesburg

Medical Application: Prioritize patients (triage)

20Professor Tshilidzi Marwala l University of Johannesburg

Monitoring the condition of structures

Citation: https://city-press.news24.com/Business/whos-to-blame-for-

grayston-bridge-collapse-20160710

21Professor Tshilidzi Marwala l University of Johannesburg

Finite Element Model

Szűcs et. al. Finite Element Analysis of the Human Mandible to Assess the Effect

of Removing an Impacted Third Molar. J Can Dent Assoc 2010;76:a72

E.F Morgan & M.L Bouxsein Use of finite element analysis to assess

bone strength (2005) 2, 8–19 (2005) doi:10.1138/20050187

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22

Monitoring and predicting dam levels

Tshilidzi Marwala, Dipanjan Paul and

Satyakama Paul. (South African

Provisional Patent 2018/03463) System

and method for real time prediction of

water level and hazard level of a dam.

23Professor Tshilidzi Marwala l University of Johannesburg

Regulations and Ethics

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•Post-work era (due to advanced means of production)

• Irrelevance in the 4thIR versus exploitation of 1stIR

• Increase inequality

•Bounded freedom (we are being watched)

•Bounded decision making by humans

•Bounded nationalism

•Bounded democracy – (democracy in peril)

•Laws and ethics to regulate automation

•New economic theories

•Human-Robot interaction will create new psychology in people

Consequences of the 4thIR

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• Produce skills for the 4thIR (WEF): Cognitive Abilities; Systems; Complex

Problem Solving; Content; Process; Social; Resource Management;

Technical; Physical

• Regulation of ownership of data

• Understand the relationship between automation and people

• Understand automation and the future of work: “The jobs of the future will

be those that make people happy or at ease” Khathutshelo Marwala

• Adapt to the fast changing world: flipped and blended classrooms

• Redefining infrastructure: Wearables, Soft-labs, Simulation

• We can achieve these through multi-disciplinary education where human

and social sciences understand science and technology and vice versa

Looking forward

26Professor Tshilidzi Marwala l University of Johannesburg

AI of University of Johannesburg on CNN Marketplace Africa

Thank you…

…Ngiyabonga…