The Forrester Wave - Marketing Mix Modeling Q3 2011

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Making Leaders Successul Every Day

Septeme 21, 2011

The Foeste We: MketgM Modelg, Q3 2011 Lc S. Pde

o CMO & Mketg Ledeshp Poessols
http://www.forrester.com/


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2011 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Forrester, Forrester Wave, RoleView, Technographics, TechRankings, and Total EconomicImpact are trademarks o Forrester Research, Inc. All other trademarks are the property o their respective owners. Reproduction or sharing o thiscontent in any orm without prior written permission is strictly prohibited. To purchase reprints o this document, please email [email protected]. For additional reproduction and usage inormation, see Forresters Citation Policy located at www.orrester.com. Inormation is

based on best available resources. Opinions refect judgment at the time and are subject to change.

Fo CMO & Mketg Ledeshp Poessols

ExECuTivE SuMMary

Te marketing mix modeling market is undergoing a transormation as marketers increasingly demand

that vendors provide solutions that are updated requently, can easily aggregate data streams, can

provide orward-looking recommendations, and can account or the continuous evolution o digital

channels, all in a package that is exible and intuitive to navigate. In Forresters 49-criteria evaluation

o marketing mix modeling vendors, we ound that MarketShare is a Leader thanks to its sowareunctionality, extensive data partnerships, and innovative strategy to integrate with media agencies.

Marketing Management Analytics (MMA) is also a strong option with its granular attribution tool and

exible soware. TinkVine excels with its unique consumer-centric, agent-based methodology, and

SymphonyIRI Groups access to shopper and consumer data is unmatched. Marketing Analytics is a

Strong Perormer thanks to its strong modeling soware but lacks access and shareability o models or

agencies. Ninah is also a Strong Perormer; it has a strong consultative approach but lacks a mature sel-

service soware platorm.

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2011, Foeste resech, ic. repodcto PohtedSepteme 21, 2011

The Foeste We: Mketg M Modelg, Q3 2011


2

MARkETing Mix MODELing HAS THE POwER TO BRing ORDER TO CHAOS

Since the early 90s, when MMA rst pioneered marketing mix modeling as a way to track the

return on investment (ROI) o marketing budgets, the industry has evolved to keep up with the

demand or marketing accountability as well as the increasingly ragmenting media landscape. Inthe age o the Splinternet, marketers can no longer aord to run mix models only or traditional

marketing channels.1 Te uture evolution o marketing mix modeling will be challenging as

marketers increasingly demand nuanced models to track where and how their customers interact

with a ast-increasing number o marketing touchpoints. Why is this happening now?

Media consumption is increasingly ragmented. Most consumers are no longer exposed tomarketing messages in a vacuum; they oen interact with multiple media simultaneously.2 In

this progressively complex environment, marketers need to understand precisely how efciently

their various marketing channel budgets are reaching their customers.

Te marketing accountability bar is rising. Because o the impact o the nancial crisis andthe continuous rise o digital marketing, rms are pressuring their marketing organizations

to ensure that investments in all marketing channels are more measurable, accountable, and

transparent. More than ever, senior marketers have to demonstrate a direct link with business

results and positive ROI or their entire marketing budget.

Te data deluge is just beginning. With new digital channels comes an abundance o rich butcomplex data sources that marketers need to translate into coherent metrics. In 2009, individual

consumers created more data than in the entire history o mankind through 2008.3 Marketing

mix modeling vendors need to integrate current and emerging data streams into their mix

models and help marketers interpret them to inorm actionable business decisions.

MARkETing Mix MODELing VEnDOR EVALuATiOn OVERViEw

o assess the state o the marketing mix modeling market and see how the vendors stack up against

each other, Forrester evaluated the strengths and weaknesses o six o the top marketing mix

modeling vendors.4 In our examination and evaluation, we weighted the criteria toward crucial

areas that our senior marketer clients look or in a vendor, namely:

Mature sel-service soware. With market dynamics changing ast, marketers cannot relyon quarterly PowerPoint updates on the eectiveness o their marketing eorts. Marketers

need soware tools that allow them to run multiple what-i budget scenarios, predict uture

outcomes rom current campaigns, and transparently share mix model insights within their

organizations, all in an on-demand environment. Although Forrester believes that vendors need

to provide consultative support in tandem with modeling soware to help marketers translate

model insights into action, this Forrester Wave gives an important weight to the hands-on

modeling soware tools each vendor has to oer.5


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2011, Foeste resech, ic. repodcto Pohted Septeme 21, 2011



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Collaborative tools. o succeed with marketing mix modeling, marketers need clear, organizedprocesses in place both within their organization and with their media agencies to share model

insights, potential optimizations, and action plans.6 Modeling vendors that give media agencies

and internal client teams access to soware tools enable their clients to communicate and share

model insights quickly. For example, one marketer explained that all his rms media agencies

are now required to assess any potential campaigns or proposals using marketing mix modeling

soware to discern the impact on the clients key perormance indicators (KPIs).

Organized integration o new data streams. As digital, mobile, and social marketing channelsprolierate, marketers need mix models that seamlessly incorporate and interpret these new data

sets. o assist marketers with their data collection needs, modeling vendors have begun to invest

in data integration and data management platorms that can manipulate data in various ormats,

and in some cases electronically aggregate them, with little eort rom the marketers themselves.

we Evalated Hh-groth Vedors Serv Lare Maret Orazatos

o identiy the marketing mix modeling vendors that are best suited to help marketers succeed in

the current Splinternet age, we screened 50 vendors that range rom pure technology vendors to

consulting shops. From this group, we selected six vendors all o which are new to a Forrester

evaluation that best embody the mix modeling services our clients need. Our evaluation included

Marketing Analytics, Marketing Management Analytics, MarketShare, Ninah, SymphonyIRI, and

TinkVine because they (see Figure 1):

Have at least 10 active clients. As this is Forresters rst evaluation o the marketing mix modelingspace, we wanted to ocus on vendors that have established client bases o at least 10 marketers.

Are growing aggressively. Marketing mix modeling is still a market in ux; thereore, weltered or vendors that are growing their business and are innovators within the eld. Vendors

selected or this Forrester Wave all had greater than 20% annual growth in 2010.

Support large marketing organizations. We looked or marketing mix modeling vendorsdedicated to serving the same customers Forrester serves: companies with more than $1 billion

in annual revenues. We did not consider vendors with an enterprise client base o less than 70%.


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4

Fre 1 Elted vedos: vedo iomto ad Selecto Cte

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.

Vendor

Marketing Analytics

Marketing Management Analytics

MarketShare

Ninah

SymphonyIRI Group

ThinkVine

Number

of clients

19

33

55

>40*

35

18

32%

27%

42%

>20%*

>20%*

44%

2010 new

business growth

Enterprise-level

clients

90%

90%

90%

80%

100%

73%

Date evaluated

June 2011

June 2011

June 2011

June 2011

June 2011

June 2011

Vendor selection criteria

Each evaluated vendor must have at least 10 active clients.

Each evaluated vendor must be growing aggressively (greater than 20% annual growth in 2010).

Each evaluated vendor must support large marketing organizations (an enterprise client base of morethan 70%).

*The vendor chose not to publicly disclose these gures but shared them with Forrester condentiallyfor verication.

The Evalato Aalyzes Three Core Aspects O Each Vedors OerFor our rst Forrester Wave evaluating the marketing mix modeling market, we leveraged past

research, user need assessments, and vendor and expert interviews to develop a comprehensive set

o evaluation criteria. In particular, we evaluated vendors against 49 criteria, which we grouped into

three high-level buckets:

Current oering. We evaluated vendors capabilities to help marketers translate multiple typeso marketing data into actionable insights. Tis includes their soware platorms, their ability

to let media agencies leverage models on behal o their clients, their data inrastructure, their

amiliarity with digital and social marketing channels, and their methodologies or helping

marketers manage various types o objectives.

Strategy. We assessed how well suited each vendors management team, executive vision,product development road map, and global strategy are to the uture needs o marketers as well

as how the vendor is using innovation to shape the uture o marketing mix modeling.

Market presence. Lastly, we examined each vendors overall size and market position based onits 2010 revenue, employee training, existing partnerships, and customer retention.


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5

EVALuATED VEnDORS ALL OFFER ROBuST SOFTwARE TOOLS AnD PREDiCTiVE MODELing

Te evaluation uncovered a market in which (see Figure 2):

MarketShare, Marketing Management Analytics, and TinkVine lead the pack. MarketShareearns its position as a Leader in our rst Forrester Wave evaluation o the marketing mix

modeling market or its combination o compelling soware tools, exceptional handling o

digital data, and a ocused strategy to innovate in the marketing mix modeling space. Marketing

Management Analytics, with its impressive approach to digital metrics and granular attribution

models, and TinkVine, with its unconventional methodology that trains thousands o agents

to behave similarly to real people and measures their interactions and engagement with client

marketing messages, are also Leaders. A common thread through all three top vendors is

their ocus on enabling marketers to transparently share and collaborate on models within

their organization and with their media agencies. Tis is a trend Forrester sees as increasingly

important in marketing mix modeling as the pace o all marketing quickens and insights willneed to be gleaned, communicated, and executed seamlessly.

SymphonyIRI is a Leader but lacks collaborative unctionalities. SymphonyIRI ranks asa Leader, but its soware tools are still conned to internal client users. In some situations,

SymphonyIRI does grant agencies access to modeling tools, but this is not yet the norm.

SymphonyIRI is aware o the need or agency access or its modeling tools and is ocused on

improving collaborative unctionality in its soware. At the same time, SymphonyIRI has very

strong data integration and aggregation capabilities and unprecedented access to point-o-sale

data rom around the globe.

Marketing Analytics and Ninah are competitive Strong Perormers. Marketing Analyticshas Leader-level mix modeling soware, but it restricts soware access to the client marketing

organization, making it more challenging or marketers to communicate models with agencies

and actualize model insights. Ninah has a well-organized, thoughtul approach to marketing

mix modeling but lacks soware products that do not need to be custom-built to specication.

Tis evaluation o the marketing mix modeling market is intended to be a starting point only. We

weighted the scoring based on the direction in which we see the marketplace moving overall and on

the eatures marketers will ask or in the uture. However, this is only a single lens through which to

view the marketplace and is by no means an absolute ranking o the top vendors in this space. We

encourage readers to view the detailed product evaluations and adapt the criteria weightings to ttheir individual needs through the Forrester Wave Excel-based vendor comparison tool.


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Fre 2 Foeste We: Mketg M Modelg, Q3 11


Go online to download

the Forrester Wave tool

for more detailed product

evaluations, feature

comparisons, and

customizable rankings.

Risky

Bets Contenders Leaders

Strong

Performers

StrategyWeak Strong

Current

oering

Weak

Strong

Market presence

Full vendor participation

Incomplete vendor participation

Marketing Analytics

Marketing Management Analytics

MarketShare

Ninah

SymphonyIRIGroup

ThinkVine

Nielsen


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Fre 2 Foeste We: Mketg M Modelg, Q2 11 (Cot.)


CURRENT OFFERING

General information

Services

Technology

Data

MethodologyAnalysis

STRATEGY

Strength of management team

Corporate strategy

Product strategy

Global strategy

MARKET PRESENCE

Financial stability

Company

Partnerships

Customers

MarketingAnalytics

3.89

5.00

4.60

4.70

3.14

3.503.30

3.05

5.00

3.00

3.00

2.00

1.49

0.00

2.50

1.00

2.45

Forresters

Weighting

50%

10%

10%

20%

20%

20%20%

50%

15%

30%

30%

25%

0%

25%

25%

25%

25%

MarketingManagem

ent

Analytics

4.36

5.00

4.60

4.20

3.79

4.504.50

4.40

5.00

4.00

4.00

5.00

2.86

2.00

4.00

2.00

3.45

MarketShare

4.49

5.00

4.80

4.20

4.44

4.404.50

4.75

5.00

5.00

5.00

4.00

4.48

5.00

4.00

5.00

3.90

Ninah

3.10

4.00

4.00

1.30

3.59

3.802.80

3.50

5.00

3.00

2.00

5.00

3.50

4.00

3.00

3.20

3.80

SymphonyIRIGroup

3.92

4.00

4.00

4.40

4.40

3.503.30

4.10

5.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

4.13

4.00

5.00

3.80

3.70

ThinkVine

4.61

5.00

4.40

4.20

4.35

4.805.00

4.13

5.00

5.00

5.00

1.50

2.88

3.00

3.00

2.00

3.50

All scores are based on a scale of 0 (weak) to 5 (strong).

VEnDOR PROFiLES

Leaders: Fleble Sotare Ad Dtal Proess

MarketShare. With its robust soware tools. MarketShare ranks as a Leader in this Forrester Wave.MarketShares Planner and Optimizer tools are accessible to analytically procient end users and

senior brand managers as well as outside media agencies. MarketShare also has excellent dataprocessing and integration capabilities and can integrate client marketing data in multiple ormats.

MarketShares mix models are all built to be orward-looking rst and pull data in rom media

agencies and various third-party data partnerships, including a partnership with Google to supply

search and Youube query data. MarketShare also works closely with its clients to understand how

models results can aect the way they organize their marketing department. With a large global

presence, aggressive plans to expand into new markets and new verticals, and a strategy to align

closely with media agencies, MarketShare is a great choice or any type o marketer.


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Marketing Management Analytics. Marketing Management Analytics is also a Leader thanksto its dynamic soware solutions. With Da Vinci, its data integration and processing tool;

Market View, an easy-to-use reporting tool; and Avista, a orward-looking modeling tool, MMA

helps marketers aggregate data, understand past eectiveness, and project uture outcomes. Te

company has a strong emphasis on collaboration, and media agencies can leverage Avista to

uncover optimal campaign allocations. Marketers can also grant limited access to high-level

reports and scenarios to brand, sales, or nance teams within the organization. MMA also oers

m360, a digital deep dive product, which goes a level deeper into digital media analytics to

measure granular attribution. Marketers that are just beginning with marketing mix modeling

should look to MMA to help build accurate models that can justiy marketing budgets and eect

transormational change within organizations.

TinkVine. Te youngest and smallest vendor in this Forrester Wave, TinkVine, ranks as

a Leader because o its innovative, agent-based approach to mix modeling and its robusttechnologies. TinkVines unique methodology uses a system o agents that are trained to

behave and react to marketing activities as real people. I marketers have custom segmentations,

TinkVine can create new custom rules or the system to reect those segments. Its soware

platorm is built on Force.com and is available to analytical end users, senior marketers,

and media agencies. TinkVines biggest strength is its ocus on modeling how a group o

consumers actually behaves when exposed to a communication or a promotional or social

activity. Additionally, TinkVine can create mix models with little proprietary marketer data, as

its agent-based system can be trained with category data or any country. Marketers looking to

expand into emerging markets where data might be difcult to come by can look to TinkVine

to build models that yield quick, actionable insights. However, the company has relatively little

experience with global projects and has no international presence.

SymphonyIRI. SymphonyIRI, with the strongest data oering o all o our evaluated vendors,rounds out the Leaders category. In addition to its strong relationships with digital and social

media data providers, SymphonyIRI has a vast global network o partnerships to aggregate

shopper and consumer purchasing data rom 54 countries. SymphonyIRI has a particularly

strong ootprint among consumer packaged goods (CPG) and pharmaceutical marketers.

SymphonyIRI has soware tools or reporting and orecasting (Brand Advantage) and data

aggregation and integration (Liquid Data) but needs to work on opening its tools up to

nonanalytical users and media agencies.

Stro Perormers: Poerl Methodoloes From Prove Vedors

Marketing Analytics. Marketing Analytics, which announced aer this Forrester Waves reviewperiod that Nielsen was acquiring it, ranks as a Strong Perormer in our evaluation. Marketing

Analytics has strong analytical rigor and prides itsel on being at the oreront o methodological

innovations in mix modeling. However, the vendor lags in its adoption o emerging marketing

channels, such as digital, mobile, and social. Marketing Analytics suite o soware tools, though


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robust, is restricted to client end users only, and the vendor has no plans to allow marketers to

share any model unctionality with their agencies.

Ninah. Tanks to its strong consultative approach to mix modeling, Ninah ranks as a StrongPerormer in our evaluation. Ninah emphasizes a heavily strategic consultative approach

to marketing mix modeling and, or large client engagements, can build custom modeling

solutions as needed, but modeling soware is not part o Ninahs standard oering. Trough its

parent company, Publicis Groupe, Ninah has deep relationships with third-party data providers

and the Publicis network o media agencies. Ninahs deeply consultative approach to modeling

is good or marketers looking or a vendor that will adapt to the client organization and take

ull ownership o the modeling eort. Ninah has a strong global presence and direct access to

Publicis capabilities and resources.

SuPPLEMEnTAL MATERiAL

Ole Resorce

Te online version o Figure 2 is an Excel-based vendor comparison tool that provides detailed

product evaluations and customizable rankings.

Data Sorces used i Ths Forrester wave

Forrester used a combination o three data sources to assess the strengths and weaknesses o each

solution:

In-person briefngs and scenario-based demos. Each vendor participated in a three-hourbrieng during which representatives discussed strategy and key dierentiators as well as

demonstrated technology and processes against three hypothetical client scenarios. We

evaluated each product using the same scenarios, creating a level playing eld by evaluating

every product on the same criteria.

Vendor surveys. Forrester surveyed vendors on their capabilities as they relate to the evaluationcriteria. Once we analyzed the completed vendor surveys, we conducted vendor calls where

necessary to gather details o vendor qualications.

Customer reerence calls. o validate product and vendor qualications, Forrester also

conducted reerence calls with two o each vendors current customers.

The Forrester wave Methodoloy

We conduct primary research to develop a list o vendors that meet our criteria to be evaluated

in this market. From that initial pool o vendors, we then narrow our nal list. We choose these

vendors based on: 1) product t; 2) customer success; and 3) Forrester client demand. We eliminate

vendors that have limited customer reerences and products that dont t the scope o our evaluation.


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Aer examining past research, user need assessments, and vendor and expert interviews, we develop

the initial evaluation criteria. o evaluate the vendors and their products against our set o criteria,

we gather details o product qualications through a combination o lab evaluations, questionnaires,

demos, and/or discussions with client reerences. We send evaluations to the vendors or their review,and we adjust the evaluations to provide the most accurate view o vendor oerings and strategies.

We set deault weightings to reect our analysis o the needs o large user companies and/or

other scenarios as outlined in the Forrester Wave document and then score the vendors based

on a clearly dened scale. Tese deault weightings are intended only as a starting point, and we

encourage readers to adapt the weightings to t their individual needs through the Excel-based

tool. Te nal scores generate the graphical depiction o the market based on current oering,

strategy, and market presence. Forrester intends to update vendor evaluations regularly as product

capabilities and vendor strategies evolve.

EnDnOTES

1 For more detail on the ragmentation o media and content consumption, see the January 26, 2010, Te

Splinternet report.

2 Seventy-three percent o US adults say that they multitask with their computer while watching V. Source:

North American echnographics Entertainment And Media Online Benchmark Recontact Survey, Q2

2010 (US).

3 Andreas Weigend, Te Social Data Revolution(s), Harvard Business Review, May 20, 2009 (http://blogs.

hbr.org/now-new-next/2009/05/the-social-data-revolution.html).

4 Forrester reached out to Nielsen, but the vendor declined to participate in this evaluation. Nielsens position

on the Forrester Wave graphic is estimated based on Forresters past research.

5 Based on our previous research and interviews with marketers, we ocused this Forrester Wave on the

unctionality that marketers demand most rom their modeling vendors.

6 For more detail on Forresters ideal marketing mix modeling processes or marketers, see the May 18, 2011,

Marketing Mix Modeling Landscape Overview report.
http://www.forrester.com/go?docid=56303&src=60121pdfhttp://www.forrester.com/go?docid=56303&src=60121pdfhttp://www.forrester.com/go?docid=58784&src=60121pdfhttp://www.forrester.com/go?docid=58784&src=60121pdfhttp://www.forrester.com/go?docid=56303&src=60121pdfhttp://www.forrester.com/go?docid=56303&src=60121pdf


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The Forrester Wave - Marketing Mix Modeling Q3 2011

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