The following slides are various additions to the original powerpoint as uploaded to the Moodle. They are in order as they appear in the

presentation, but only in relation to each other; there’s no indication as to where they come in relation to the other slides – too hard to do….

“There is no debate”

Prof Naomi Oreskes: 928 peer reviewed climate articles between 1993 and 2003… not one denies climate change.

Study of 1.6 billion observations (Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Study 2012) indicates a 1.5 degree change since 1800 – revised from 0.8 degrees.

Atmospheric CO2 levels(Ionides 2012)

“The thaw and decay of permafrost carbon is irreversible.”Methane is 25 times as potent a heat-trapping gas as CO2 over a 100 year time horizon, but 72 times as potent over 20 years .

Yet, no climate model currently incorporates the amplifying feedback from methane released by a defrosting tundra.

The carbon comes from plant material frozen in soil during the ice age of the Pleistocene: the icy soil trapped and preserved the biomass for thousands of years. Schaefer equates the mechanism to storing broccoli in the home freezer: “As long as it stays frozen, it stays stable for many years,” he said. “But you take it out of the freezer and it will thaw out and decay.”

Schaefer et al. found that between 29-59 percent of the permafrost will disappear by 2200. That permafrost took tens of thousands of years to form, but will melt in less than 200 .Photo: melting permafrost, Alaska

Also like fossil fuels, the PCF is irreversible: once the permafrost carbon thaws and decays, no process on human time scales can put the carbon

back into the permafrost.

Thawing permafrost feedback will turn Arctic from carbon sink to source in the 2020s, releasing 100 billion tons of carbon by 2100 (National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) 2011),

“Release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming.”Methane and carbon release from the Arctic is the most dangerous amplifying feedback in the entire carbon cycle. This research finds a key “lid” on “the large sub-sea permafrost carbon reservoir” near Eastern Siberia “is clearly perforated, and sedimentary CH4 [methane] is escaping to the atmosphere.”

Semiletov 2011

Back to the ice….

This is a graphical interpretation by David Spratt, Melbourne Climate Action Centre, of aspects of recent paleoclimate research by Hansen et al, available in draft form at:

http://arxiv.org/abs/1105.1140http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110118_MilankovicPaper.pdf

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110514_PaleoAndImbalance.pdfVersion 1.2 of 3 June 2011

Eocene peak

Planetary temperature over the last 65 million years…Lessons for today… and tomorrow.

Antarctic glaciation ~ 34 million years ago…

Eocene peak

Around 34 million years ago, glaciation of

Antarctica as temperature drops from Eocene peak.Asteroid impact cluster (~35mya): opening of

Drake Passage leads to the circum Antarctic cold

current

Around ~4.5 million years ago, northern hemisphere glaciation.Associated with the rise of the Panama Cordillera which isolates the Pacific from the Atlantic oceans and leads to intra-oceanic

circulation (Gyres) which introduces warm currents and moisture to the North Atlantic – resulting in increased snow fall and formation of ice in Greenland, Laurentia and Fennoscandia.

Northern hemisphere glaciation ~ 4.5 million years ago…

Eocene peak

The last million years…Climate swings

between ice ages and warm

inter-glacial periods over last million

years.CO2 between 180 and 300 parts per

million.

Carbon dioxide and methane

over last 500,000 years

Peak Holocene: over last 10,000 years up 1900AD

The last 10,000 years – the Holocene

Peak Holocene

temp.

Holocene: after the last ice age, relatively stable temperatures (+/–0.5C) and sea-

levels over last 10,000 years – the period of

human civilisation

Peak Holocene: over last 10,000 years up 1900ADGlobal average temperature now ~0.6C above peak Holocene

Today temperature rises above the Holocene maximum

2010

CO2 level today is 393ppm but “thermal inertia” (delay as ocean mass warm)

means temperature will increase further.Temperatures have risen ~0.83C since

1900 and are now ~0.6C over peak Holocene.

Peak Holocene: over last 10,000 years up 1900ADGlobal average temperature now ~0.6C above peak Holocene2C of warming: consequence of current level of greenhouse gases

2 degrees – goodbye to Greenland ice sheet…

+2C

When climate system reaches equilibrium,

present level of CO2 will produce >2C of warming

with feedbacks…

Peak Holocene: over last 10,000 years up 1900ADGlobal average temperature now ~0.6C above peak Holocene2C of warming: consequence of current level of greenhouse gases

+2C

… which is sufficient for large parts of Greenland and West

Antarctic ice sheets to be lost, leading to at least a 6-7 metre

sea-level rise over time

“Goals to limit human-made warming to 2°C.. are not sufficient –

they are prescriptions for disaster” — Dr James Hansen

Peak Holocene: over last 10,000 years up 1900ADGlobal average temperature now ~0.6C above peak Holocene2C of warming: consequence of current level of greenhouse gases4C of warming

4 degrees – goodbye, goodbye …

Best present emission reduction commitments by all governments (if implemented) will still lead to 4 degrees of warming by 2100…

+4C

Peak Holocene: over last 10,000 years up 1900ADGlobal average temperature now ~0.6C above peak Holocene2C of warming: consequence of current level of greenhouse gases4C of warming

+4C

…and likely loss overtime of all ice sheets. No ice sheets on planet = 70

metre sea-level rise over time…

… amongst many devastating impacts. Read more about 4 degrees hotter at http://www.climateactioncentre.org/resources

A 6,700 page report by world leaders concludes that climate change means “billions of people will be condemned to poverty and much of civilization will collapse” (2009 State of the Future Report)

Based on information from 2,700 experts worldwide.

Its findings are described by Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General of the UN, as providing “invaluable insights into the future for the United Nations, its member states, and civil society.”

Nicholas Stern — the author of the Government's Stern Report on the economic effects of climate change, and former Chief Economist at the World Bank — said we have a one in two chance of destroying civilization within the life-span of people already born, unless drastic action is taken to slow CO2 emissions.

"If we let go, if we carry on with business as usual, there is a 50pc chance that global temperatures will be 5 degrees centigrade higher by the end of century than it was in pre-industrial times. The last time that happened, the world was a swamp and there were alligators up to the North Pole." (Eocene: 56-34 mya)

"We can draw the risk down to 3pc if we cut emissions by 50pc by 2050. That means will have to cut from 6 tonnes of carbon per capita to 2 tonnes. This insurance policy would amount to a one-off cost 1.5pc to 2pc of world GDP".

Lord Stern said this would entail an 80pc cut in emissions for the rich world.

Paleo-temperature variation, war frequency, and population growth rate, A.D. 1400–1900.

Zhang D D et al. PNAS 2007;104:19214-19219

©2007 by National Academy of Sciences

Climate change and the causes of war (Zhang 2007)