The fatal consequences of atmospheric CO2-e levels over ... · La Nina 2007-8. Rahmstorf et al.,...
Transcript of The fatal consequences of atmospheric CO2-e levels over ... · La Nina 2007-8. Rahmstorf et al.,...
Andrew GliksonResearch School of Earth Science & School of Archaeology and Anthropology
Australian National University
"The fatal consequences of atmospheric CO2-e levels over 350 ppm“Implications for the Australian Capital Territory
Presentation to the ACT GovernmentStanding Committee on Climate Change, Environment and Water
The sensitivity of the atmosphere to greenhouse gas forcing has been underestimated.The atmosphere is tracking toward critical tipping pointsCanberra, as one of the CO2 emission-intensive cities world-wide, is in the position to sent an example, by:A. Transition to electric train and bicycle transport system, restricting/taxing access of private fossil fuel vehicles into town centresB. Encouraging solar-thermal electricity generation.C. Located at the centre of a drought-stricken region, encouraging the Federal government to invest in North-South water pipeline systems
IT IS NOT TOO EARLY TO START THINKING IN TERMS OFLOCAL FOOD PRODUCTION (VEG GARDENS, CHOOKS ETC.)
SUMMARY AND PRINCIPAL RECOMMENDATIONS
THE HUMAN AND FINANCIAL COST OF INACTION WILL EXCEED THE COST OF ACTION BY ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE
A. pCO2 compilation of marine and lacustrine proxy records.
B. The climate for the same period (0 to 65 million years ago).
Zachos et al., 2008
A
B
Min. Eocene Max. Miocene
Anthropogenic 5000 GtCO2 emission
Upper estimateLower estimate
ATMO
SPHE
RIC
CO2 (
PPMV
)
δ18 O
ICE-
FREE
TEM
PERA
TURE
Age (million of years ago)
Anthropogenic 2500 GtCO2 emission
END-EOCENEFREEZE
Opening of Drake passage Isolates Antarctica from tropical warm water transport
500 ppm CO2
US $B
ILLI
ON
Pina
tubo
El C
hich
on
Agun
g
1975-76 Tipping Point
Temp
eratu
re an
omaly
o CTe
mper
ature
anom
aly o C
El N
ino
1998
NASA/GISS
La N
ina 2
007-
8
Rahmstorf et al., 2007 Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections
Observations
CO2 +2.0 ppm/yr
ToC+0.03oC/yr
SEA LEVEL0.35 cm/year
SEA
LEVE
L CH
ANGE
(cm
)Te
mpe
ratu
re ch
ange
(o C)
CO2 L
evels
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
RECENT GLOBAL WARMING
Base period: 1951 - 1980
2008 (14th warmest of 129 years) +.0.37
2007 (3rd warmest of 129 years) +0.61
2005 (4th warmest of 129 years) +0.61
End Eocene glaciation
GREEHOUSE EARTHGLACIAL/INTERGLACIAL
Mid-Pliocene
Robinson et al., 2008, Eos Vol. 89, No. 49, 2 December 2008
C anomaly relative to the present
IPCC AR4 A2 SCENARIO (+ 2 – 5oC) (2090-2099)
MID-PLIOCENE SST(+3oC at mid-latitudes)
TIPPING POINTS: GLACIAL TERMINATIONS
2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_Ch11.pdf
TEMP
ERAT
URE
RESP
ONSE
O CPR
ECIP
ITAT
ION
RESP
ONSE
(%)
SUMMER WINTER
SUMMER MONSOONS IN E &SE AUSTRALIA;DRUGHTS IN SW AUST.
WINTER DROUGHTS OVER MOST OF AUSTRALIA
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_Ch11.pdf
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/national_carbon_dioxide_co2_emissions_per_capita
http://www.garnautreview.org.au/pdf/Garnaut_Chapter7.pdf
A.C.T. ~13.5 ton CO2 per capita
X3.8
X1.2X1.3
X1.29 in 18 yr1.6% per year
Global 2008 1.66 ppm/yr
THE ROLE OF CARBON GASES
~500 ppm CO2
Permafrost (900 GtC)High-latitude peat lands (400GtC)Tropical peat lands (100Gt C)Vegetation subject to fire and/or deforestation (650 GtC)
LAND
Future risk: Vulnerable carbon sinks
Preliminary analyses indicate that over the next 100 years the vulnerable carbon pools can release enough carbon to cause an increase of around 200 ppm in atmospheric CO2 on top of CO2 increase from fossil fuel combustion in the order of 200-500 ppm
INTERGLACIAL ONSET-TYPERUNAWAY THRESHOLD / GATE
?
Maximum temperatures for 7 February 2009
http://www.science.unsw.edu.au/news/indian-ocean-drought/
SEVEREDROUGHT
CONDITIONS
PROJECTIONS AND MIITIGATION
Emiss
ions
GtC
/year
CO2 (
ppm
)∆C
O2 (p
pm/ye
ar)
?
1950 2000 2050Hansen et al. 2008
1950 2000 2050
Global carbon emissions
Level of atmospheric CO2
Change rates of atmospheric CO2
201510
5
550500450400350
54321
Ice core data
?
alternative scenariosobservations
alternative scenarios
Hansen et al., 2008
CARBON EMISSIONS AND ATMOSPHERIC CO2 LEVELS 1950 - 2008
Eocene
alternative scenarios
UNDER ESTIMATE BY TAR AND SAR PROJECTIONS
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Carbon_Stabilization_Scenarios_png
REDUCE EMISSIONS BY 2020 TO BELOW 2000 LEVELS TO STABLLIZE AT 450 PPM
“STABILIZATION” AT 450 ppm CO2MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE
(RISKS FEEDBACKS)
12 GtC/yr by 2020
By 40% of 2000 level:i.e. to 2.4 GtC/year in 11 years
By 5% of 2000 level:i.e. to 5.7 GtC/year in 11 years
- 0.1 GtC/year = 1.25% Emission reduction each year
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/national_carbon_dioxide_co2_emissions_per_capita
http://www.garnautreview.org.au/pdf/Garnaut_Chapter7.pdf
http://www.garnautreview.org.au/pdf/Garnaut_Chapter7.pdf
http://www.garnautreview.org.au/pdf/Garnaut_Chapter7.pdf
N.H.
Tem
pera
ture
(°C)
0
0.5
1
-0.5
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
2
4
3
5
6
1
0
Glob
al T
empe
ratu
re (°
C)
IPCC Projectionsfor 2100 AD
Earth System moves to a new state;modern civilization collapses
Feedbacks push climate change higher;abrupt changes much more likely;massive impacts to humans
Loss of Greenland ice sheet= 6.4 metre sea level rise
Large biodiversity loss;coral reefs disappear
“Committed” Climate Change
BACK TO THE EOCENE
CO2 >550 ppm
The sensitivity of the atmosphere to greenhouse gas forcing has been underestimated.The atmosphere is tracking toward critical tipping pointsCanberra, as one of the most CO2 emission-intensive cities world-wide, is in the position to sent an example, by:A. Transition to electric train and bicycle transport system, restricting/taxing access of private fuel vehicles to town centresB. Encouraging solar-thermal electricity generation.C. Located at the centre of a drought-stricken region, encouraging the Federal government to invest in North-South water pipeline systems
SUMMARY AND PRINCIPAL RECOMMENDATIONS
THE HUMAN AND FINANCIAL COST OF INACTION WILL EXCEED THE COST OF ACTION BY ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE