The FAO-UNIDO Agro-Industry Project Potential Next Steps
Transcript of The FAO-UNIDO Agro-Industry Project Potential Next Steps
The FAO-UNIDO Agro-Industry
Project
Potential Next Steps
Sangita Dubey
FAO, Statistics Division (ESS)
FAO-UNIDO Expert Group Meeting on Agro-Industry Measurement
22-23 November 2015
The AIM Project, FAO Statistics Division
Project Content Description: Coverage to date
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Activity coverage:
Manufacturing (ISIC Rev. 3, D_15t37)
Manufacture of food products, and beverages (ISIC Rev. 3, D_15)
Manufacture of tobacco products (ISIC Rev. 4, D_16)
Indicators: Gross Output, Value Added, Compensation of Employees, and Employment
International comparability: LCU, and USD
Time Series: 1990 up to 2013
Geography: 46 countries - OECD & BRIC countries, Bulgaria, Taiwan, Cyprus, Indonesia,
Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Romania.
The AIM Project, FAO Statistics Division
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Prioritization of Next Steps?
1. Extend AIM to all countries in INDSTAT2, including developing countries
2. Define “Agro-industry” (in statistical terms)
3. Disaggregate to sub-industries (main commodity group)
4. Produce series in constant LCU, and constant USD – determine deflators
5. Add/improve variables: Employment (male, female, total), GFCF, trade
variables (imports, exports)
6. Expand from Agro-food industries to Agro-industries (requires statistical
definition of Agro-Industry)
7. Address food waste/loss statistics in the context of AIM
The AIM Project, FAO Statistics Division
4/19
• May need to take into account both activity (ISIC) classification,
and product (HS, CPC, COICOP) classification
• Requires activity-product mapping
• May require use of input-output tables to determine sector shares
of value-added
Prioritization of Next Steps: Define “Agro-Industry”
The AIM Project, FAO Statistics Division
5/19
International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) Rev. 4,
10 - Manufacture of food products
11 - Manufacture of beverages
12 - Manufacture of tobacco products
13 - Manufacture of textiles
14 - Manufacture of wearing apparel
15 - Manufacture of leather and related products
16 - Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture;
manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials
17 - Manufacture of paper and paper products
Prioritization of Next Steps: Define “Agro-Industry”
The AIM Project, FAO Statistics Division
6/19
• Indstat4 available at ISIC 4 digit level of activity detail
• UNIDO will explore to extend the current methodology to this finer
degree of detail
Prioritization of Next Steps: Disaggregate to sub-industries
The AIM Project, FAO Statistics Division
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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Billions
Imaginary CountryFood and Beverages Gross Output and sub-industries - Cumulative Shares
Processing/preserving of meat Processing/preserving of fish Processing/preserving of fruit & vegetables
Dairy products Prepared animal feeds Cocoa, chocolate and sugar confectionery
Macaroni, noodles & similar products Soft drinks; mineral waters
Prioritization of Next steps: Disaggregate to sub-industries (main
commodity group)
The AIM Project, FAO Statistics Division
8/19
ISIC Rev.3 ISIC Description ISIC Rev.3 ISIC Description
151Processed
meat,fish,fruit,vegetables,fats154 Other food products
1511 Processing/preserving of meat 1541 Bakery products
1512 Processing/preserving of fish 1542 Sugar
1513Processing/preserving of fruit
& vegetables1543 Cocoa, chocolate and sugar confectionery
1514Vegetable and animal oils and
fats1544 Macaroni, noodles & similar products
1520 Dairy products 1549 Other food products n.e.c.
153Grain mill products; starches;
animal feeds155 Beverages
1531 Grain mill products 1551 Distilling, rectifying & blending of spirits
1532 Starches and starch products 1552 Wines
1533 Prepared animal feeds 1553 Malt liquors and malt
1554 Soft drinks; mineral waters
1600 Tobacco products
The AIM Project, FAO Statistics Division
9/19
• To compile constant price series, what are the appropriate
deflators: GDP, Agriculture Value-Added, MVA, IPP, CPI, other?
• Should these vary across series?
Prioritization of Next Steps: Select deflators to compile constant
price series
The AIM Project, FAO Statistics Division
10/19
• Are labour variables from industry surveys and national accounts
reliable?
• What are the challenges in constructing GFCF?
• What are the challenges in constructing trade variables?
Prioritization of Next Steps: Add/Improve variables
The AIM Project, FAO Statistics Division
Origin of value added in final demand for traded products
Number of dimensions = 4: country of final demand, industry of final demand
value added source country, value added source industry
e.g. Domestic and foreign industry value added origin of domestic final demand for Food and beverages (i3 15-16)
http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=TIVA2015_C3
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
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70%
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90%
100%
Domestic food industry Domestic agriculture Domestic, other industries
Foreign food industry Foreign agriculture Foreign, other industries
The AIM Project, FAO Statistics Division
OECD Genome of global final demand for food and beverages – trade in VA
The AIM Project, FAO Statistics Division
Prioritization of Next Steps: Expand from Agro-food to Agro-industry
Extension upstream the value chain: e.g. contribution to total economy VA
of processing of non-food agricultural inputs?
0,000
0,010
0,020
0,030
0,040
0,050
0,060
0,070
1990
1991
1992
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1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
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2008
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2010
2011
2012
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Contribution of Total Agriculture and Food Processing and Beverages to Total Economy Value Added,
United Kingdom, 1990-2013 Contribution of processing of
raw agricultural input
underestimated - What about
manufacturing of tobacco,
natural fiber, bio-fuels,
Agriculture
Food Processing and
Beverages
The AIM Project, FAO Statistics Division
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Apart from extensions per se, there is also scope for
methodological refinements:
e.g. Imputing missing Data in NA based series
- We have seen how we deal with data gaps in INDSTAT2 series
- What about NA series – For the benchmark exercise, we have worked with
countries with close to full coverage in terms od NA series but we know that
developing countries may present scattered data in OCD UNSD which will be
our main source
- => How far shall we go in series reconstruction? + Importance of good reported
series by countries
The AIM Project, FAO Statistics Division
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At country-level, what are the challenges in data
collection?
• Delineating agriculture and agro-food manufacturing
• Coverage of all relevant activities through household and enterprise
surveys:
• How do size cut-offs for enterprise surveys impact coverage of agro-
industry activities?
• What is the role of the informal sector, and how is it captured?
• Other issues?
HOUSEHOLDS/FORMAL/INFORMAL FOOD PROCESSING
Informal sector
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Household processing
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Industrial formal
processing
Informal
sector
Low GDP Per Capita High GDP Per Capita
Industrial formal
processing
Household
processing