The Fall of Mosul to the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham
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The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has taken Mosul, the 2nd largest city in Iraq, as part of a multi-front, concerted military campaign. Read this SlideShare presentation for the current state of play in a dangerous and developing situation.
Transcript of The Fall of Mosul to the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham
The Fall of Mosul to the Islamic State of Iraq and
al-sham
June 10, 2014
Jessica Lewis, Research DirectorAhmed Ali, Iraq Team LeadInstitute for the Study of War
Key Takeaways• The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has captured Western Mosul and areas of Eastern
Mosul, including key military facilities, as of noon June 10, 2014 EDT. • ISIS is currently seizing military equipment, ammunition, and millions of dollars of cash in areas as
it advances. Much of this materiel is US-provided. • ISIS is maneuvering forces on an offensive from Mosul oriented south on the Mosul-Baghdad
highway. The ISIS northern campaign extends to Kirkuk and Salah ad-Din, the provinces bordering Ninewa in which Mosul is located.
• ISIS is a military organization conducting an insurgency against the government of Iraq. It is no longer merely a terrorist organization. It is a conventional military force that holds terrain and claims to govern some of it.
• The Mosul campaign was well planned and required years to set conditions. ISIS had threatened Mosul with systemic attacks since 2012. ISIS has conducted a campaign to assassinate and remove local authorities from Mosul since October 2013. The operations allowed it to cut off media from the city, limit the Iraqi Security Forces’ activities there, and gain freedom of movement within it.
• This slideshow illustrates how ISIS laid the groundwork for the seizure of Mosul, its areas of control on the morning of June 10, 2014 EDT, its assessments of its own attacks, and its aspirations to govern a state in Iraq and Syria.
ISIS Historical Presence in Northern Iraq
ISIS, formerly known as Al-Qaeda in Iraq, had an uptick in activity in December in 2006 but declined in 2008.
ISIS VBIED Attacks during 2012-13 Campaign
“Breaking the Walls” campaign was a Mosul-focused effort, but also saw operations in the Baghdad belts.
ISIS VBIEDs in July 2013
Attacks focused on Baghdad.
ISIS presence in Ninewa province in October 2013
Qayara
Shirqat
Shura
Mosul
ISIS Possible Control Zone ISIS Attack Zone ISIS Support Zone
ISIS in Ninewa
ISIS seeks control in southern Mosul area.
Baghdad
Ninewa
South
Diyala
Anbar
Salah
uddin and N. B
aghdad
Kirkuk
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
Operations by province, 2012 and 2013(% of total attacks)
20122013
Baghdad
Ninewa
South
Diyala
Anbar
Salah
uddin and N. B
aghdad
Kirkuk
Total
0200400600800
1000
13
549
67 83 91 71 13
887
73 69 53 19 48 50 24
336
Armed attacks in Iraq 2012 and 2013
20122013
0102030
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 10 4 3 7 7 4 5
30
Checkpoints set up in Iraq 2012 and 2013
20122013
ISIS in Ninewa conducted most intense operations. Sources – Bilger, understandingwar.org.
ISIS Representation of Attacks throughout Iraq
ISIS Envisioned Boundaries
ISIS sees its Islamic State Extending between Iraq and Syria.
ISIS Control Zones ISIS Attack Zones ISIS Operational Presence
ISIS achieves visible and established control.
ISIS Actual Sanctuary: June 10, 2014
Map of Mosul City
ISIS now spread through whole city with control of military bases and the Mosul International airport.
For more or to contact our experts, visit www.understandingwar.org
@TheStudyofWar www.facebook.com/InstituteForTheStudyofWar
