The Fall of Mosul to the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham

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The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has taken Mosul, the 2nd largest city in Iraq, as part of a multi-front, concerted military campaign. Read this SlideShare presentation for the current state of play in a dangerous and developing situation.

Transcript of The Fall of Mosul to the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham

  • The Fall of Mosul to the Islamic State of Iraq and al-sham June 10, 2014 Jessica Lewis, Research Director Ahmed Ali, Iraq Team Lead Institute for the Study of War
  • Key Takeaways The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has captured Western Mosul and areas of Eastern Mosul, including key military facilities, as of noon June 10, 2014 EDT. ISIS is currently seizing military equipment, ammunition, and millions of dollars of cash in areas as it advances. Much of this materiel is US-provided. ISIS is maneuvering forces on an offensive from Mosul oriented south on the Mosul-Baghdad highway. The ISIS northern campaign extends to Kirkuk and Salah ad-Din, the provinces bordering Ninewa in which Mosul is located. ISIS is a military organization conducting an insurgency against the government of Iraq. It is no longer merely a terrorist organization. It is a conventional military force that holds terrain and claims to govern some of it. The Mosul campaign was well planned and required years to set conditions. ISIS had threatened Mosul with systemic attacks since 2012. ISIS has conducted a campaign to assassinate and remove local authorities from Mosul since October 2013. The operations allowed it to cut off media from the city, limit the Iraqi Security Forces activities there, and gain freedom of movement within it. This slideshow illustrates how ISIS laid the groundwork for the seizure of Mosul, its areas of control on the morning of June 10, 2014 EDT, its assessments of its own attacks, and its aspirations to govern a state in Iraq and Syria.
  • ISIS Historical Presence in Northern Iraq ISIS, formerly known as Al-Qaeda in Iraq, had an uptick in activity in December in 2006 but declined in 2008.
  • ISIS VBIED Attacks during 2012-13 Campaign Breaking the Walls campaign was a Mosul-focused effort, but also saw operations in the Baghdad belts.
  • ISIS VBIEDs in July 2013 Attacks focused on Baghdad.
  • ISIS presence in Ninewa province in October 2013 Qayara Shirqat Shura Mosul ISIS Possible Control Zone ISIS Attack Zone ISIS Support Zone ISIS in Ninewa ISIS seeks control in southern Mosul area.
  • Baghdad Ninewa South Diyala Anbar Salahud din and N. Baghdad Kirkuk 2012 8.2% 37.6% 11.0% 13.3% 12.9% 12.7% 4.2% 2013 6.7% 32.9% 11.0% 11.5% 12.8% 19.7% 5.4% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% Operations by province, 2012 and 2013 (% of total attacks) 2012 2013 13 549 67 83 91 71 13 887 73 69 53 19 48 50 24 336 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Armed attacks in Iraq 2012 and 2013 2012 2013 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 10 4 3 7 7 4 5 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Checkpoints set up in Iraq 2012 and 2013 2012 2013 ISIS in Ninewa conducted most intense operations. Sources Bilger, ISIS Representation of Attacks throughout Iraq
  • ISIS Envisioned Boundaries ISIS sees its Islamic State Extending between Iraq and Syria.
  • ISIS Control Zones ISIS Attack Zones ISIS Operational Presence ISIS achieves visible and established control. ISIS Actual Sanctuary: June 10, 2014
  • Map of Mosul City ISIS now spread through whole city with control of military bases and the Mosul International airport.
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