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Transcript of The Failed States Index 2010
Copyright © 2011 The Fund for Peace All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from The Fund for Peace. The Fund for Peace 1720 I Street NW 7th Floor Washington, D.C. 20006 T: +1 202 223 7940 F: +1 202 223 7947 www.fundforpeace.org The Fund for Peace Publication CR-10-99-FS (11-03G) Circulation: PUBLIC
.
Background 4 What is the Failed States Index? 5 The Failed States Index 2010 in Brief 6 Performance by Region 7 Performance by Indicator 11 The Big Movers for 2010 17 How is the Failed States Index Composed and Applied? 18 Who Uses the Failed States Index? 19 Beyond the Failed States Index 21 About The Fund for Peace 22
Contents
www.fundforpeace.org 3 The Failed States Index
have serious repercussions not only for that state and
its people, but also for its neighbors and other states
halfway across the globe. Witness in recent times, for
example, the negative ripple-effects from weak and
failing states such as Somalia, Libya, Yemen, Haiti and
the Balkan states.
Since the end of the Cold War, a number of states have
erupted into mass violence stemming from internal
conflict. Some of these crises are ethnic conflicts. Some
are civil wars. Others take on the form of
revolutions. Many result in complex humanitarian
emergencies. Though the dynamics may differ in each
case, all of these conflicts stem from social, economic,
and political pressures that have not been managed by
professional, legitimate, and representative state
institutions.
Fault lines emerge between identity groups, defined by
language, religion, race, ethnicity, nationality, class,
caste, clan or area of origin. Tensions can deteriorate
into conflict through a variety of circumstances, such as
competition over resources, predatory or fractured
leadership, corruption, or unresolved group
grievances.
The reasons for state weakness and failure are complex
but not unpredictable. It is critically important that the
international community understand and closely
monitor the conditions that create weak and failed
states—and be prepared to take the necessary actions
to deal with the underlying issues or otherwise
mitigate the negative effects of state failure.
To have meaningful early warning, and effective policy
responses, assessments must go beyond specialized
area knowledge, narrative case studies and anecdotal
evidence to identify and grasp broad social trends. An
interdisciplinary combination of qualitative research
and quantitative methodologies is needed to establish
patterns and acquire predictive value.
Information is critical. Without the right data, it is
impossible to identify problems that may be festering
‘below the radar.’ Decision makers need access to this
kind of information to implement effective policies.
The Failed States Index, produced by The Fund for
Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the
normal pressures that all states experience, but also in
identifying when those pressures are pushing a state
towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent
issues in weak and failing states, The Failed States
Index—and the social science framework and software
application upon which it is built—makes political risk
assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to
policy-makers and the public at large.
W eak and failing states pose a serious threat to the entire world. In
today’s world, with is highly globalized economy, information
systems and interlaced security, pressures on one fragile state can
Background
www.fundforpeace.org 4 The Failed States Index
praised research product of an independent non-
governmental organization that addresses key 21st
century international security challenges.
Leaders and thinkers from government, international
organizations, NGO, academia and the media use and
refer to the Failed States Index because it is empirically
based and has proven to be objective and relevant.
Perhaps the most telling barometer of its credibility is
the steady increase in the number of governments that
respond to it, by seeking ways to improve their
standing in the Failed States Index or using it as a
component in making decisions related to foreign
assistance.
The Failed States Index is based on The Fund for
Peace’s proprietary Conflict Assessment Software Tool
(CAST) analytical platform. Based on comprehensive
social science methodology, data from three primary
sources is triangulated and subjected to critical review
to obtain final scores for the Failed States Index.
Millions of documents are analyzed every year, and by
applying highly specialized search parameters, scores
are apportioned for every country based on twelve key
political, social and economic indicators and over 100
sub-indicators that are the result of years of
painstaking expert social science research.
T he Failed States Index is an annual ranking of 177 nations based on their
levels of stability and capacity. First published in 2005, the Failed States
Index continues to be a globally recognized, frequently cited and widely
Failed States Index 2010
What is The Failed States Index?
www.fundforpeace.org 5 The Failed States Index
Alert
Warning
Moderate
Sustainable
1. Somalia 114.3
2. Chad 113.3
3. Sudan 111.8
4. Zimbabwe 110.2
5. D.R. Congo 109.9
6. Afghanistan 109.3
7. Iraq 107.3
8. C.A.R. 106.4
9. Guinea 105.0
10. Pakistan 102.5
11. Haiti 101.6
12. Cote d’Ivoire 101.2
13. Kenya 100.7
14. Nigeria 100.2
15. Yemen 100.0
16. Myanmar 99.4
17. Ethiopia 98.8
18. Timor-Leste 98.2
19. Niger 97.8
= North Korea 97.8
21. Uganda 97.5
22. Guinea-Bissau 97.2
23. Burundi 96.7
24. Bangladesh 96.1
25. Sri Lanka 95.7
26. Cameroon 95.4
= Nepal 95.4
28. Malawi 93.6
= Sierra Leone 93.6
30. Eritrea 93.3
31. Congo (Rep.) 92.5
32. Iran 92.2
33. Liberia 91.7
34. Lebanon 90.9
35. Burkina Faso 90.7
36. Uzbekistan 90.5
37. Georgia 90.4
38. Tajikistan 89.2
39. Mauritania 89.1
40. Rwanda 88.7
= Cambodia 88.7
= Laos 88.7
43. Solomon Is. 88.6
44. Eq. Guinea 88.5
45. Kyrgyzstan 88.4
46. Colombia 88.2
47. Togo 88.1
48. Syria 87.9
49. Egypt 87.6
50. Bhutan 87.3
51. Philippines 87.1
52. Comoros 85.1
53. Bolivia 84.9
54. Israel/W Bank 84.6
55. Azerbaijan 84.4
56. Papua N G 83.9
= Zambia 83.9
58. Moldova 83.8
59. Angola 83.7
60. Bosnia & Herz. 83.5
61. Indonesia 83.1
62. China 83.0
63. Swaziland 82.8
64. Madagascar 82.6
65. Nicaragua 82.5
= Turkmenistan 82.5
67. Lesotho 82.2
68. Djibouti 81.9
69. Ecuador 81.7
= Mozambique 81.7
71. Algeria 81.3
72. Guatemala 81.2
= Tanzania 81.2
74. Fiji 80.5
75. The Gambia 80.2
76. Honduras 80.0
77. Cuba 79.4
78. Mali 79.3
79. India 79.2
80. Russia 79.0
81. Thailand 78.8
82. Belarus 78.7
= Venezuela 78.7
84. Maldives 78.3
85. El Salvador 78.1
86. Serbia/Kosovo 77.8
87. Saudi Arabia 77.5
88. Cape Verde 77.2
89. Turkey 77.1
90. Jordan 77.0
= Morocco 77.0
92. Peru 76.9
93. Benin 76.8
= Dominican R. 76.8
95. Vietnam 76.6
96. Mexico 76.1
97. Sao Tome 75.8
98. Gabon 75.3
99. Senegal 74.6
100. Namibia 74.5
101. Armenia 74.1
102. Guyana 73.0
103. Kazakhstan 72.7
= Macedonia 72.7
105. Suriname 72.5
106. Paraguay 72.1
107. Samoa 71.1
108. Micronesia 70.6
109. Ukraine 69.5
110. Malaysia 69.2
111. Libya 69.1
112. Belize 68.7
113. Botswana 68.6
114. Cyprus 68.0
115. Seychelles 67.9
= South Africa 67.9
117. Brunei 67.6
118. Tunisia 67.5
119. Brazil 67.4
= Jamaica 67.4
121. Albania 67.1
= Ghana 67.1
123. Grenada 67.0
124. Trinidad 66.1
125. Kuwait 61.5
126. Bulgaria 61.2
127. Antigua 60.9
128. Romania 60.2
129. Mongolia 60.1
130. Panama 59.3
131. Croatia 59.0
132. The Bahamas 58.9
133. Bahrain 58.8
134. Montenegro 57.3
135. Barbados 55.4
= Latvia 55.4
137. U.A.E. 52.4
138. Costa Rica 52.0
139. Qatar 51.8
140. Estonia 50.7
141. Hungary 50.1
142. Poland 49.0
143. Slovakia 48.8
144. Oman 48.7
145. Malta 48.2
146. Lithuania 47.8
147. Greece 45.9
148. Argentina 45.8
149. Italy 45.7
150. Mauritius 44.4
151. Spain 43.5
152. Czech Rep 41.5
153. South Korea 41.3
= Uruguay 41.3
155. Chile 38.0
156. Slovenia 36.0
157. Germany 35.4
158. United States 35.3
159. France 34.9
160. Singapore 34.8
161. U.K. 33.9
162. Portugal 33.1
163. Belgium 32.0
164. Japan 31.3
165. Iceland 29.8
166. Canada 27.9
= Netherlands 27.9
168. Australia 27.3
= Luxembourg 27.3
170. Austria 27.2
171. New Zealand 23.9
172. Denmark 22.9
173. Ireland 22.4
174. Switzerland 21.8
175. Sweden 20.9
176. Finland 19.3
177. Norway 18.7
Alert
Warning
Sustainable
Mod
erate
Failed States Index 2010
www.fundforpeace.org 6 The Failed States Index
every country relative to their “neighborhood.” No
regional grouping is ever perfect. Nevertheless, the
regional groupings reinforce the general scores of the
2010 Failed States Index: Western Europe is currently
the most stable region in the world whilst South Asia,
closely followed by East Africa, provides the most
concern.
If each region was adjudged by the same scale that the
Failed States Index assesses countries, then 9 of the
world’s 12 regions would fall within the “Warning”
category whilst two regions would fall within the
“Alert” category.
T he Fund for Peace divides the world into four regional groupings
encompassing twelve smaller regional sub-groupings in order to better
analyze and understand the implications of the Failed States Index for
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20 Weste
rn E
uro
pe
Easte
rn a
nd
South
east E
uro
pe
Oceania
North
Am
erica
and
the C
arib
bean
Centra
l and
South
Am
erica
East a
nd
South
east A
sia
Maghre
b a
nd
Mid
dle
East
South
ern
Africa
Centra
l Asia
and
the C
aucasu
s
West a
nd
Centra
l Africa
East A
frica
South
Asia
Average Index Scores by Region
Alert
Performance by Region
Warning
Moderate
Sustainable Ratings based on an average of the total Index scores of countries within each region.
Performance by Region
www.fundforpeace.org 7 The Failed States Index
North America and the Caribbean
The Best Performers
The Worst Performers
166. Canada 27.9
158. United States 35.3
11. Haiti 101.6
77. Cuba 79.4
93. Dominican Republic 76.8
96. Mexico 76.1
South and Central America
The Best Performers
The Worst Performers
155. Chile 38.0
153. Uruguay 41.3
148. Argentina 45.8
46. Colombia 88.2
53. Bolivia 84.9
65. Nicaragua 82.5
Western Europe
The Best Performers
The Worst Performer
177. Norway 18.7
176. Finland 19.3
175. Sweden 20.9
174. Switzerland 21.8
173. Ireland 22.4
149. Italy 45.7
South, Central and Eastern Europe
The Best Performers
The Worst Performers
156. Slovenia 36.0
152. Czech Republic 41.5
147. Greece 45.9
60. Bosnia & Herzegovina 83.5
80. Russia 79.0
82. Belarus 78.7
Regional Performance
www.fundforpeace.org 8 The Failed States Index
Western and Central Africa
The Best Performer
The Worst Performers
121. Ghana 67.1
2. Chad 113.3
8. Central African Republic 106.4
9. Guinea 105.0
12. Cote d’Ivoire 101.2
14. Nigeria 100.2
Eastern Africa
The Best Performer
The Worst Performers
115. Seychelles 67.9
1. Somalia 114.3
3. Sudan 111.8
13. Kenya 100.7
17. Ethiopia 98.8
21. Uganda 97.5
Middle East and North Africa
The Best Performer
The Worst Performers
7. Iraq 107.3
15. Yemen 100.0
32. Iran 92.2
34. Lebanon 90.9
39. Mauritania 89.1
144. Oman 48.7
Southern Africa
The Best Performers
The Worst Performers
115. South Africa 67.9
113. Botswana 68.6
4. Zimbabwe 110.2
5. D.R. Congo 109.9
28. Malawi 93.6
31. Republic of Congo 92.5
Regional Performance
www.fundforpeace.org 9 The Failed States Index
Southeast and East Asia
The Best Performers
The Worst Performers
164. Japan 31.3
160. Singapore 34.8
153. South Korea 41.3
16. Myanmar 99.4
18. Timor-Leste 98.2
19. North Korea 97.8
Oceania
The Best Performers
The Worst Performers
171. New Zealand 23.9
168. Australia 27.3
43. Solomon Islands 88.6
56. Papua New Guinea 83.9
74. Fiji 80.5
Central Asia and the Caucasus
The Best Performer
The Worst Performers
103. Kazakhstan 72.7
36. Uzbekistan 90.5
37. Georgia 90.4
38. Tajikistan 89.2
45. Kyrgyzstan 88.4
55. Azerbaijan 84.4
South Asia
The Best Performer
The Worst Performers
84. Maldives 78.3
6. Afghanistan 109.3
10. Pakistan 102.5
24. Bangladesh 96.1
25. Sri Lanka 95.7
26. Nepal 95.4
Regional Performance
www.fundforpeace.org 10 The Failed States Index
T he Failed States Index scores for every country are based on twelve key
indicators, the result of years of social science research. The analysis of
the individual indicators is just as important as the overall ranking.
Mounting Demographic Pressures
Pressures on the population such as disease an natural disasters that make it difficult for the government to meet its social obligations.
Massive Movement of Refugees or IDPs
Pressures associated with population displacement. This strains public services, and has the potential to pose a security threat as groups are susceptible to politicization.
Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance
When tension and violence exists between groups, it undermines the state’s ability to provide security. When security is not guaranteed, violence and fear may ensue.
Chronic and Sustained Human Flight
When there is little opportunity, people migrate, leaving a vacuum of human capital.
Uneven Economic Development
When there are ethnic, religious, or regional disparities, the governed tend to be uneven in their commitment to the social contract.
Poverty, Sharp or Severe Economic Decline
Poverty and economic decline strain the ability of the state to meet its social obligations. Includes such things as inflation and unemployment.
Legitimacy of the State
Corruption and a lack of representativeness in the government directly undermine the social contract.
Progressive Deterioration of Public Services
The provision of health, education, and sanitation services are a key aspect of the social contract.
Violation of Human Rights and Rule of Law
When human rights are violated or unevenly enforced, the social contract is weakened.
Security Apparatus
The security apparatus should have a monopoly on the use of legitimate force. When the security apparatus is fractured or when competing or parallel groups exist, this weakens the social contract.
Rise of Factionalized Elites
When local and national leaders engage in deadlock and brinksmanship for political gain, this undermines the social contract.
Intervention of External Actors
When the state cannot meet its obligations under the social contract, external actors often intervene to provide services or to manipulate the internal affairs for economic and political gain.
Economic Indicators
Political and Military Indicators Social Indicators
Performance by Indicator
www.fundforpeace.org 11 The Failed States Index
6 Afghanistan 9.5 9.2 9.7 7.2 8.2 8.3 10.0 8.9 9.2 9.7 9.4 10.0 109.3
121 Albania 5.9 2.8 4.9 7.1 5.7 6.1 6.8 5.6 5.3 5.4 6.0 5.5 67.1
71 Algeria 6.7 6.5 8.2 6.1 7.1 5.1 7.5 6.5 7.6 7.5 6.8 5.7 81.3
59 Angola 8.4 6.9 5.9 5.6 9.1 5.0 8.1 8.0 7.3 5.9 6.8 6.7 83.7
127 Antigua and Barbuda 4.7 3.4 4.5 7.3 6.1 5.5 5.3 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.0 6.2 60.9
148 Argentina 4.6 2.2 4.5 3.8 5.8 5.1 3.6 3.7 3.8 2.4 3.2 3.1 45.8
101 Armenia 5.7 6.9 6.0 7.0 6.5 5.8 6.6 5.3 6.4 5.1 7.0 5.8 74.1
168 Australia 3.5 2.5 3.4 1.2 4.2 3.2 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.5 1.1 27.3
170 Austria 2.7 2.3 3.8 1.2 4.7 2.7 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.9 2.4 27.2
55 Azerbaijan 6.2 8.1 7.9 5.7 7.3 5.9 8.0 5.5 7.2 7.3 7.9 7.4 84.4
132 Bahamas 6.2 3.2 4.7 5.8 6.4 5.0 5.5 4.4 2.8 4.8 4.8 5.3 58.9
133 Bahrain 4.5 2.6 6.5 3.5 6.0 4.0 6.7 3.1 5.4 4.7 6.1 5.7 58.8
24 Bangladesh 8.4 6.7 8.9 8.4 8.8 7.9 8.0 8.3 7.4 8.1 8.9 6.3 96.1
135 Barbados 4.0 3.2 4.9 6.5 6.7 5.4 4.1 3.1 2.8 4.5 4.5 5.7 55.4
82 Belarus 6.7 3.7 6.4 4.8 6.7 6.7 8.7 6.2 7.9 6.2 7.8 6.9 78.7
163 Belgium 2.6 1.8 4.4 1.3 4.7 3.7 2.3 2.1 1.5 1.8 3.0 2.8 32.0
112 Belize 6.5 5.1 4.9 6.7 7.1 6.2 6.2 5.8 3.8 5.7 4.6 6.1 68.7
93 Benin 7.7 6.7 4.2 6.7 7.4 7.4 6.4 8.4 5.5 5.3 4.1 7.0 76.8
50 Bhutan 7.0 7.3 7.7 7.1 8.5 7.5 6.9 7.3 7.9 5.8 7.7 6.6 87.3
53 Bolivia 7.6 4.7 7.7 6.7 8.7 6.8 7.1 7.5 6.6 6.5 8.3 6.7 84.9
60 Bosnia and Herzegovina 5.3 7.1 8.7 5.6 7.1 5.7 8.0 5.4 5.9 7.2 9.2 8.3 83.5
113 Botswana 9.0 6.6 4.1 5.9 7.7 6.1 5.3 6.4 4.8 4.0 2.9 5.8 68.6
119 Brazil 6.3 3.7 6.2 4.8 8.8 4.0 6.2 6.0 5.4 6.7 5.1 4.2 67.4
117 Brunei Darussalam 5.4 4.2 6.6 3.8 7.8 3.7 7.7 3.5 6.9 5.9 7.4 4.7 67.6
126 Bulgaria 4.5 3.9 4.5 5.8 6.1 5.3 6.0 5.0 4.6 5.1 4.6 5.8 61.2
35 Burkina Faso 9.3 6.2 5.9 6.6 8.8 8.0 7.7 8.8 6.6 7.3 7.6 7.9 90.7
23 Burundi 9.4 8.4 7.8 6.5 8.4 8.2 7.6 9.0 7.7 7.1 7.9 8.7 96.7
40 Cambodia 8.0 5.3 6.9 7.9 7.1 7.7 8.7 8.3 7.7 6.4 7.7 7.0 88.7
26 Cameroon 8.2 7.6 7.5 8.1 8.7 7.0 9.0 8.0 7.8 7.8 8.7 7.0 95.4
166 Canada 3.2 2.5 3.1 2.1 4.5 2.5 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.2 2.4 1.5 27.9
88 Cape Verde 7.7 4.1 4.4 8.2 6.0 7.0 7.2 7.4 6.0 5.5 6.1 7.6 77.2
8 Central African Republic 9.1 9.3 8.9 6.1 9.2 8.4 9.0 9.2 8.8 9.7 9.1 9.6 106.4
2 Chad 9.4 9.5 9.8 8.3 9.3 8.5 9.9 9.6 9.6 9.9 9.8 9.7 113.3
155 Chile 4.1 2.6 3.4 2.5 4.5 4.6 1.8 4.0 3.4 2.3 1.5 3.3 38.0
62 China 8.8 6.6 8.0 5.9 9.0 4.3 8.3 7.0 9.0 5.8 7.2 3.1 83.0
46 Colombia 6.7 9.0 7.2 8.3 8.3 4.6 7.7 5.8 6.9 7.7 8.0 8.0 88.2
52 Comoros 7.5 3.9 5.6 6.4 6.1 7.6 8.2 8.5 6.8 7.5 8.0 9.0 85.1
138 Costa Rica 5.5 4.6 3.9 4.5 6.5 5.4 3.9 4.1 3.3 2.5 3.2 4.6 52.0
12 Cote d'Ivoire 8.4 8.0 8.9 8.2 7.9 8.0 9.0 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.5 9.5 101.2
131 Croatia 4.7 5.9 5.2 4.6 5.3 6.2 4.8 3.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 5.4 59.0
77 Cuba 6.7 5.7 5.5 7.2 6.6 6.3 7.0 5.0 7.5 7.3 7.1 7.5 79.4
114 Cyprus 4.8 4.5 7.6 5.0 7.6 4.3 5.2 3.4 3.6 5.3 7.9 8.8 68.0
152 Czech Republic 3.3 2.8 3.4 4.3 4.1 4.4 3.4 3.6 3.3 2.1 3.3 3.5 41.5
5 D.R. Congo 9.9 9.6 8.6 8.0 9.5 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.4 9.8 8.9 9.7 109.9
172 Denmark 2.8 1.7 3.0 1.8 2.0 3.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.0 2.3 22.9
Social Economic Political and Military
Performance by Indicators
www.fundforpeace.org 12 The Failed States Index
Sustainable
Alert
Warning
Mod
erate
68 Djibouti 7.9 6.8 5.9 5.5 6.5 6.4 7.2 7.3 6.6 6.0 7.1 8.7 81.9
93 Dominican Republic 6.5 5.1 5.8 8.3 7.8 5.9 5.6 6.9 6.5 5.6 6.8 6.0 76.8
69 Ecuador 6.3 6.1 6.4 7.5 8.0 6.7 7.4 7.0 5.8 6.6 7.8 6.1 81.7
49 Egypt 7.4 6.7 8.2 6.0 7.4 6.8 8.4 6.1 8.2 6.5 8.1 7.8 87.6
85 El Salvador 8.1 5.7 5.9 7.1 7.9 6.6 6.8 7.0 6.7 6.7 4.5 5.1 78.1
44 Equatorial Guinea 8.4 2.3 6.8 7.4 8.8 4.7 9.6 8.4 9.4 8.4 8.4 5.9 88.5
30 Eritrea 8.7 7.2 6.1 7.1 6.2 8.6 8.8 8.6 8.4 7.6 7.9 8.1 93.3
140 Estonia 4.5 4.2 5.0 4.1 5.2 5.0 4.5 3.3 3.3 2.6 5.5 3.5 50.7
17 Ethiopia 9.2 7.8 8.6 7.5 8.5 8.0 7.7 8.1 8.7 7.8 9.0 7.9 98.8
74 Fiji 5.9 4.2 7.4 6.6 7.5 6.7 8.9 5.5 6.7 6.8 8.2 6.1 80.5
176 Finland 2.3 1.7 1.2 2.2 1.7 3.0 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.8 19.3
159 France 3.7 3.1 5.6 1.8 5.3 3.6 1.8 1.5 2.7 1.6 2.0 2.2 34.9
98 Gabon 7.0 5.9 3.0 6.4 7.9 5.9 7.8 6.6 6.4 5.7 7.2 5.5 75.3
75 Gambia 7.6 6.0 4.6 6.2 6.8 7.5 7.6 7.2 7.4 5.8 6.2 7.3 80.2
37 Georgia 6.2 7.8 8.4 5.8 7.2 6.5 9.0 6.4 7.3 8.0 9.1 8.7 90.4
157 Germany 3.3 4.0 4.7 2.6 4.7 3.6 2.1 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.2 35.4
122 Ghana 7.1 5.3 5.2 7.9 6.4 5.8 5.1 7.6 4.7 2.6 4.2 5.2 67.1
147 Greece 4.5 2.8 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.3 4.6 3.7 3.4 3.4 2.4 3.5 45.9
123 Grenada 5.8 2.9 4.2 7.6 6.7 6.1 6.4 3.9 4.6 5.4 5.8 7.6 67.0
72 Guatemala 7.4 5.6 6.8 6.7 8.0 6.9 7.1 6.8 6.9 7.2 6.3 5.5 81.2
9 Guinea 8.3 7.5 8.2 8.6 8.7 8.9 9.8 9.0 9.5 9.4 9.3 7.8 105.0
22 Guinea-Bissau 8.5 6.8 5.8 7.1 8.4 8.3 9.1 8.8 8.1 8.9 8.9 8.5 97.2
102 Guyana 6.1 3.6 6.2 8.0 7.7 6.9 6.8 5.3 5.2 6.6 5.1 5.5 73.0
11 Haiti 9.3 5.6 7.3 8.6 8.3 9.2 9.3 9.5 8.3 8.2 8.4 9.6 101.6
76 Honduras 7.6 4.1 5.0 6.5 8.3 7.5 7.5 6.9 6.3 7.0 6.8 6.5 80.0
141 Hungary 3.3 3.1 3.2 4.8 5.9 5.4 5.7 3.6 3.3 2.2 5.0 4.6 50.1
165 Iceland 0.8 1.1 1.0 3.0 2.3 7.2 2.0 1.5 1.9 1.1 2.0 5.9 29.8
79 India 8.1 5.2 7.8 6.5 8.7 5.1 5.8 7.2 6.1 7.6 6.2 4.9 79.2
61 Indonesia 7.2 6.5 6.3 7.3 7.9 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.5 7.3 7.1 6.7 83.1
32 Iran 6.4 8.3 8.1 7.1 7.3 5.5 9.0 5.9 9.4 8.9 9.5 6.8 92.2
7 Iraq 8.5 8.7 9.3 9.3 8.8 7.6 9.0 8.4 9.1 9.5 9.6 9.5 107.3
173 Ireland 2.0 1.6 1.0 2.0 2.8 3.3 1.6 2.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.3 22.4
54 Israel/West Bank 7.0 7.8 9.5 3.8 7.7 4.4 7.3 6.8 7.8 6.5 8.2 7.8 84.6
149 Italy 4.0 3.9 4.8 2.8 4.5 4.7 4.5 3.1 3.0 4.2 4.0 2.2 45.7
119 Jamaica 6.0 2.8 4.5 6.4 6.5 6.8 6.8 6.2 5.5 5.8 4.0 6.1 67.4
164 Japan 4.0 1.2 3.6 2.1 2.6 3.5 1.8 1.3 3.2 2.1 2.2 3.7 31.3
90 Jordan 6.8 7.9 6.9 4.8 7.2 6.2 5.9 5.2 7.0 5.9 6.5 6.7 77.0
103 Kazakhstan 5.8 4.0 5.7 4.1 6.2 6.7 7.5 5.5 7.1 6.3 7.6 6.2 72.7
13 Kenya 9.1 8.7 8.9 7.9 8.7 7.4 9.3 8.1 8.0 7.5 8.7 8.4 100.7
125 Kuwait 5.5 4.1 5.1 4.1 6.1 3.8 6.0 3.1 6.5 4.9 7.2 5.1 61.5
45 Kyrgyzstan 7.8 5.2 7.4 7.3 7.9 7.9 8.4 6.3 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.6 88.4
40 Laos 7.9 5.9 6.8 6.7 5.8 7.3 8.3 8.1 8.7 7.4 8.5 7.3 88.7
135 Latvia 4.3 4.3 4.6 5.0 6.0 6.3 5.4 4.2 3.5 3.0 4.3 4.5 55.4
34 Lebanon 6.8 8.9 9.0 7.0 7.2 6.1 7.3 6.0 6.8 8.9 8.8 8.1 90.9
67 Lesotho 9.2 4.8 5.2 6.7 5.7 8.7 7.2 8.5 6.3 5.9 7.2 6.8 82.2
Social Economic Political and Military
www.fundforpeace.org 13 The Failed States Index
Alert
Warning
Mod
erate
Sustainable
Performance by Indicators
33 Liberia 8.4 8.2 6.3 6.7 8.3 8.0 7.1 8.5 6.5 6.7 8.1 8.9 91.7
111 Libya 5.7 4.3 5.8 4.2 6.9 5.3 7.3 4.2 8.3 5.2 7.1 4.8 69.1
146 Lithuania 4.3 2.9 4.0 5.0 6.0 5.7 3.9 3.2 3.3 2.2 3.2 4.1 47.8
168 Luxembourg 1.9 1.7 3.2 1.2 2.3 2.8 2.7 2.2 1.3 2.1 3.6 2.3 27.3
103 Macedonia 4.8 4.6 7.6 6.7 7.1 6.6 6.9 4.6 5.1 5.6 6.5 6.6 72.7
64 Madagascar 8.6 4.8 5.4 5.3 7.7 7.2 7.1 8.6 5.8 6.4 7.7 8.0 82.6
28 Malawi 9.2 6.5 6.2 8.4 8.3 9.2 8.1 8.6 7.3 5.4 7.8 8.6 93.6
110 Malaysia 6.3 5.0 6.6 3.9 7.0 5.1 5.9 5.0 6.8 5.9 6.3 5.4 69.2
84 Maldives 6.3 6.4 5.2 7.1 5.3 7.0 7.3 7.1 7.3 6.1 7.4 5.8 78.3
78 Mali 8.7 4.8 6.3 7.5 7.0 8.1 5.4 8.5 5.0 7.0 4.0 7.0 79.3
145 Malta 3.7 5.8 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.2 4.1 3.2 3.7 4.0 2.0 4.8 48.2
39 Mauritania 8.5 6.4 8.0 5.2 6.8 7.7 7.5 8.3 7.3 7.9 7.9 7.6 89.1
150 Mauritius 3.7 1.2 3.5 2.6 5.7 4.1 5.1 4.2 3.7 3.7 3.3 3.6 44.4
96 Mexico 6.8 4.1 5.8 6.8 8.0 6.5 6.6 5.8 5.8 7.5 5.5 6.9 76.1
108 Micronesia 7.0 3.1 4.5 8.1 6.8 6.4 6.6 6.6 2.8 5.1 5.5 8.1 70.6
58 Moldova 6.4 4.3 6.9 7.8 6.8 7.0 7.9 6.7 6.8 7.8 8.0 7.4 83.8
129 Mongolia 5.6 1.4 4.3 2.3 5.9 5.7 6.2 5.3 6.4 4.8 5.3 6.9 60.1
134 Montenegro 4.9 4.2 6.6 2.7 4.4 4.9 4.5 3.8 5.3 4.5 5.9 5.6 57.3
90 Morocco 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.4 7.6 6.5 7.2 6.6 6.8 5.4 6.2 4.3 77.0
69 Mozambique 8.8 3.5 4.8 7.8 7.5 7.8 7.5 8.9 7.3 6.2 5.4 6.2 81.7
16 Myanmar 8.5 8.3 8.7 6.3 9.3 8.2 9.6 8.5 9.1 8.2 8.2 6.5 99.4
100 Namibia 7.5 5.7 5.6 7.5 8.9 6.5 4.8 6.9 5.8 5.6 3.7 6.0 74.5
26 Nepal 8.1 7.0 9.2 6.2 9.0 8.3 8.1 7.6 8.7 7.7 8.5 7.0 95.4
166 Netherlands 2.7 3.2 4.7 1.9 3.2 3.0 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.7 2.4 27.9
171 New Zealand 1.5 1.4 3.3 2.1 4.3 4.0 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.2 0.9 23.9
65 Nicaragua 6.8 5.0 6.3 6.9 7.9 7.9 7.6 7.6 6.2 6.5 7.0 6.8 82.5
19 Niger 9.6 6.5 8.0 6.5 7.8 9.2 8.9 9.7 8.5 7.3 7.6 8.2 97.8
14 Nigeria 8.4 5.8 9.5 8.1 9.3 6.9 9.4 9.1 8.8 9.3 9.4 6.2 100.2
19 North Korea 8.5 5.6 7.2 5.0 8.8 9.6 9.9 9.6 9.5 8.1 7.8 8.2 97.8
177 Norway 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.2 2.4 2.6 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.1 2.1 18.7
144 Oman 4.7 1.1 3.0 1.7 2.7 4.5 6.0 4.5 6.7 5.2 6.6 2.0 48.7
10 Pakistan 8.1 8.9 9.4 7.9 8.4 6.2 8.9 7.3 8.9 9.7 9.5 9.3 102.5
130 Panama 6.3 3.5 4.4 5.0 7.5 5.6 4.8 5.5 4.5 5.2 3.0 4.0 59.3
56 Papua New Guinea 7.5 4.2 7.1 7.7 9.0 6.3 7.8 8.3 6.3 6.5 7.1 6.1 83.9
106 Paraguay 6.2 1.5 6.3 5.8 8.0 6.2 8.3 5.8 6.7 5.9 7.5 3.9 72.1
92 Peru 6.4 4.5 6.7 7.0 8.0 5.6 6.9 6.5 5.5 7.4 6.9 5.5 76.9
51 Philippines 7.7 6.7 7.6 7.0 7.4 5.8 8.6 6.3 7.5 7.9 8.0 6.6 87.1
142 Poland 4.7 3.2 3.3 5.9 4.8 5.0 4.5 3.7 3.8 2.4 3.7 4.0 49.0
162 Portugal 3.7 1.8 2.6 2.2 3.7 4.7 1.9 3.6 3.5 1.4 1.2 2.8 33.1
139 Qatar 4.5 3.0 5.2 3.4 5.3 4.1 6.3 2.6 4.7 2.7 5.0 5.0 51.8
31 Republic of the Congo 8.7 7.7 6.3 6.4 8.1 7.8 9.1 8.6 7.7 7.6 7.1 7.4 92.5
128 Romania 5.4 3.2 5.6 4.9 5.6 5.6 6.0 4.8 4.3 4.1 5.2 5.5 60.2
80 Russia 6.7 5.4 7.1 6.0 7.9 5.1 8.1 5.5 8.0 6.8 7.6 4.8 79.0
40 Rwanda 9.1 7.0 8.5 7.0 7.2 7.0 7.5 7.4 7.5 5.0 8.0 7.5 88.7
107 Samoa 6.9 3.1 5.1 8.0 6.6 6.2 6.4 5.1 4.5 5.8 5.3 8.1 71.1
Social Economic Political and Military
Performance by Indicators
www.fundforpeace.org 14 The Failed States Index
Alert
Warning
Mod
erate
Sustainable
97 Sao Tome & Principe 75.8
87 Saudi Arabia 77.5
99 Senegal 74.6
86 Serbia/Kosovo 77.8
115 Seychelles 67.9
28 Sierra Leone 93.6
160 Singapore 34.8
143 Slovakia 48.8
156 Slovenia 36.0
43 Solomon Islands 88.6
1 Somalia 114.3
115 South Africa 67.9
153 South Korea 41.3
151 Spain 43.5
25 Sri Lanka 95.7
3 Sudan 111.8
105 Suriname 72.5
63 Swaziland 82.8
175 Sweden 20.9
174 Switzerland 21.8
48 Syria 87.9
38 Tajikistan 89.2
72 Tanzania 81.2
81 Thailand 78.8
18 Timor-Leste 98.2
47 Togo 88.1
124 Trinidad and Tobago 66.1
118 Tunisia 67.5
89 Turkey 77.1
65 Turkmenistan 82.5
21 Uganda 97.5
109 Ukraine 69.5
137 United Arab Emirates 52.4
161 United Kingdom 33.9
158 United States 35.3
153 Uruguay 41.3
36 Uzbekistan 90.5
82 Venezuela 78.7
95 Vietnam 76.6
15 Yemen 100.0
56 Zambia 83.9
4 Zimbabwe 110.2
6.5
6.3
5.9
7.0
6.3
7.7
3.0
4.2
2.6
9.1
9.6
3.0
6.3
2.0
6.4
9.6
6.2
7.3
1.6
1.0
5.8
6.6
7.0
5.3
9.2
6.9
5.1
3.7
6.0
5.6
7.9
6.6
4.5
2.2
1.5
4.2
6.2
5.7
6.2
7.8
7.3
7.5
6.7
7.8
4.2
8.0
6.0
7.8
4.1
3.9
1.3
8.0
10.0
5.9
3.6
5.7
9.4
9.9
5.8
6.9
1.3
1.0
7.8
8.4
6.0
8.0
8.7
7.6
5.6
6.0
7.8
7.7
8.6
7.9
4.0
3.2
3.3
3.0
9.0
7.5
7.0
9.2
6.1
9.5
6.0
7.8
6.3
6.5
5.6
5.9
1.5
2.1
2.8
7.0
10.0
4.1
1.5
5.3
8.5
9.8
6.0
6.6
1.3
1.2
7.6
7.3
5.6
7.4
8.8
7.6
6.0
6.5
7.4
7.7
8.7
3.8
2.7
2.7
1.6
3.4
8.8
6.7
6.0
8.9
5.0
9.2
7.3 7.3 5.1
8.2 4.1 9.1
5.9 7.4 6.0
6.8 5.2 5.6
7.0 4.5 5.9
7.7 9.1 6.8
4.2 1.7 4.4
4.1 3.8 3.8
2.8 3.0 3.0
8.1 8.2 6.8
10.0 9.6 9.9
5.8 5.5 4.7
3.9 2.3 2.8
1.6 2.4 2.5
8.6 6.4 8.8
9.9 9.3 9.9
6.5 5.1 5.8
8.6 7.6 7.7
0.8 1.3 1.8
1.0 1.4 2.2
8.6 5.5 8.8
8.9 7.3 8.7
6.5 8.3 5.9
8.0 5.4 7.0
9.1 8.7 7.0
7.5 8.4 7.7
5.9 5.2 5.4
6.4 5.7 7.5
6.0 5.4 5.5
8.4 7.0 9.0
7.9 8.2 7.6
7.2 4.0 5.3
6.7 3.4 5.9
1.6 2.3 2.3
2.5 2.5 3.7
2.6 3.4 2.5
8.5 6.4 9.3
7.2 6.1 7.2
7.3 6.4 7.3
8.7 8.6 8.0
7.5 8.0 5.9
9.6 9.4 9.5
7.0 5.9 7.3
3.5 7.3 3.1
5.8 7.0 6.2
5.3 6.9 6.2
4.5 6.9 5.8
8.3 8.8 8.6
2.5 3.1 3.7
5.2 5.6 5.0
3.3 5.0 4.0
5.4 7.9 8.0
8.3 8.0 9.6
4.4 8.5 5.0
4.8 2.5 2.8
1.8 5.0 4.4
6.7 8.7 5.9
8.7 9.5 6.7
6.7 7.7 6.6
6.2 6.2 8.2
1.8 2.1 2.2
1.8 2.6 2.4
6.6 7.8 6.3
6.3 7.1 7.5
6.1 6.7 7.2
4.7 7.5 4.3
6.1 7.0 8.4
7.0 7.6 8.0
7.3 7.2 4.8
5.2 7.0 5.0
4.8 7.8 5.8
5.4 7.4 6.6
6.9 8.4 7.2
6.6 6.2 6.3
3.3 5.7 3.9
1.8 4.5 3.0
1.1 5.4 4.0
5.6 5.0 4.0
6.6 8.5 7.0
6.7 7.6 5.8
5.9 6.5 6.6
7.2 8.6 7.9
7.1 7.3 8.0
9.7 9.4 9.6
7.5 4.1 5.1
6.3 6.2 7.8
7.6 6.2 6.1
5.6 6.9 7.8
6.1 4.3 5.0
9.1 7.1 6.7
2.8 0.9 2.9
4.1 2.2 4.8
3.4 1.4 3.4
8.3 4.8 7.0
9.6 10.0 9.7
8.4 7.0 5.6
3.6 3.3 3.9
3.7 2.8 6.3
7.3 9.4 9.6
8.8 9.8 9.9
6.0 3.7 6.4
9.1 4.2 4.2
2.7 2.7 1.3
2.4 1.5 3.3
5.9 8.9 8.3
8.0 6.2 6.9
8.2 7.3 6.4
6.7 6.7 7.8
8.6 9.1 7.5
8.0 6.2 5.6
5.6 3.1 4.9
5.7 3.4 5.4
6.3 6.3 8.0
6.8 4.6 6.3
8.7 8.9 8.5
5.6 3.1 6.9
4.4 3.2 4.7
3.2 3.0 4.1
3.1 3.2 3.4
4.3 1.3 2.0
7.7 5.1 7.4
6.3 5.1 6.8
6.9 5.2 5.3
8.6 8.3 8.2
9.0 7.3 5.4
9.4 8.6 8.8
Social Economic Political and Military
www.fundforpeace.org 15 The Failed States Index
Alert
Warning
Mod
erate
Sustainable
Performance by Indicators
Performance by Indicators
1. D. R. Congo
2. Somalia
3. Niger
4. Afghanistan
5. Chad
177. Iceland
Best Performer Demographic
Pressure
Best and Worst Performers by Indicator
Not every nation is included in the Failed States Index, which only measures nations recognized by the United
Nations and, in some cases, excludes tiny nations due to a dearth of data. Hence, some countries are not included:
Andorra
Dominica
Kiribati
Liechtenstein
Marshall Islands
Monaco
Nauru
Palau
St. Kitts & Nevis
St. Lucia
St. Vincent
San Marino
Tonga
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Greenland
Somaliland
Taiwan
Vatican City
Western Sahara
Why Are Some Countries Missing?
UN Member States excluded due to lack of data Non-UN Members
1. Sudan
2. Chad
3. Somalia
4. Afghanistan
5. Sri Lanka
177. Iceland
Best Performer
Group
Grievance
1. Sudan
2. D. R. Congo
3. Zimbabwe
4. Chad
5. Nigeria
177. Finland
Best Performer
Uneven
Development
1. Somalia
2. Sudan
3. D. R. Congo
4. Chad
5. Sri Lanka
177. Singapore
Best Performer
Refugees
and IDPs
1. Zimbabwe
2. Iraq
3. Sudan
4. Haiti
5. Guinea
177. United States
Best Performer
Human
Flight
1. Zimbabwe
2. North Korea
3. Somalia
4. Haiti
5. Malawi
177. Sweden
Best Performer
Poverty and
Decline
1. Somalia
2. Afghanistan
3. North Korea
4. Chad
5. Sudan
177. Finland
Best Performer Legitim
acy of
the State
1. Somalia
2. Sudan
3. Chad
4. North Korea
5. Guinea
177. Denmark
Best Performer Human Rights
and Rule of Law
1. Somalia
2. Sudan
3. Chad
4. Iraq
5. Pakistan
177. Finland
Best Performer Factionalized
Elites
1. Niger
2. Chad
3. Somalia
4. North Korea
5. Haiti
177. Norway
Best Performer
Public
Services
1. Somalia
2. Chad
3. Sudan
4. D. R. Congo
5. Afghanistan
177. Finland
Best Performer
Security
Apoparatus
1. Afghanistan
2. Chad
3. D. R. Congo
4. Somalia
5. Sudan
177. New Zealand
Best Performer
External
Intervention
www.fundforpeace.org 16 The Failed States Index
E very year, a number of countries improve their score and ranking in the
Failed States Index; similarly, other countries worsen their score and
position. Below is a list of the major movers between 2009 and 2010.
Move
2009
Positio
n
2010
Positio
n
+16 Belarus 66th 82nd
+12 Albania 109th 121st
+9 Syria 39th 48th
+9 Russia 71st 80th
+8 Serbia/Kosovo 78th 86th
+6 Egypt 43rd 49th
+6 Turkmenistan 59th 65th
+6 Brazil 113th 119th
Move
2009
Positio
n
2010
Positio
n
-14 Honduras 90th 76th
-9 Cambodia 49th 40th
-8 Fiji 82nd 74th
-8 India 87th 79th
-7 Mauritania 46th 39th
-7 South Africa 122nd 115th
-6 Eritrea 36th 30th
-6 Iran 38th 32nd
-6 Djibouti 74th 68th
-6 El Salvador 91st 85th
Move
2009
Score
2010
Score
-3.8 Zimbabwe 114.0 110.2
-3.6 Belarus 82.3 78.7
-2.9 Albania 70.0 67.1
-2.6 Lebanon 93.5 90.9
-2.3 Uzbekistan 92.8 90.5
-2.1 Myanmar 101.5 99.4
-2.0 Bangladesh 98.1 96.1
-2.0 Bahamas 60.9 58.9
Move
2009
Score
2010
Score
+3.0 Eritrea 90.3 93.3
+2.8 Honduras 77.2 80.0
+2.4 Guinea-Bissau 94.8 97.2
+2.2 Iran 90.0 92.2
+1.9 Yemen 98.1 100.0
+1.8 Italy 43.9 45.7
+1.7 Fiji 78.8 80.5
+1.5 Sierra Leone 92.1 93.6
+1.5 Oman 47.2 48.7
Improving (by Position) Improving (by Score)
Worsening (by Position) Worsening (by Position)
The Big Movers for 2010
www.fundforpeace.org 17 The Failed States Index
How is the Failed States Index Composed and Applied?
www.fundforpeace.org 18 The Failed States Index
of reports and information from around the world,
detailing the existing social, economic and political
pressures faced by each of the 177 countries that we
analyze.
The Fund for Peace’s software performs content
analysis on this collected information. Through
sophisticated search parameters and algorithms, the
CAST software separates the relevant data from the
irrelevant. Guided by 12 primary social, economic and
political indicators (each split into an average of 14 sub-
indicators), the CAST software analyzes the collected
information using specialized search terms that flag
relevant items. This analysis is then converted using an
algorithm into a score representing the significance of
each of the various pressures for a given country.
The content analysis is further triangulated with two
other key aspects of the overall assessment process:
quantitative analysis and qualitative inputs based on
major events in the countries examined. The scores
produced by the Fund for Peace’s software are then
compared with a comprehensive set of vital statistics—
as well as human analysis—to ensure that the software
has not misinterpreted the raw data. Though the basic
data underpinning the Failed States Index is already
freely and widely available electronically, the strength
of the analysis is in the methodological rigor and the
systematic integration of a wide range of data sources.
T he strength of the Failed States Index is its ability to distill millions of
pieces of information into a form that is relevant as well as easily
digestible and informative. Daily, the Fund for Peace collects thousands
A screenshot of the CAST software content analysis.
Who Uses The Failed States Index?
www.fundforpeace.org 19 The Failed States Index
world and provides an important overview of the
relative stability of countries throughout the world.
Beyond the Failed States Index, the underlying
framework is also a useful tool for country-, region–
and indicator-specific analysis.
The Failed States Index is featured annually in Foreign
Policy magazine and gets wide attention in the U.S. and
global media. It also attracts attention from
governments, academics, international organizations,
businesses and civil society groups.
The Failed States Index enjoys global reach. The edition
was cited in 150 publications in 13 languages within its
first week of being posted on The Fund for Peace
website. In 2009, the Failed States Index was covered in
317 media outlets in 73 countries.
The Failed States Index is noticed and used by the
people who matter. It has been cited by the U.S.
Secretary of State in Congressional testimony and by
the Secretary of Defense in the Quadrennial Defense
Review. The Failed States Index has been the catalyst
for a cabinet-level review of state institutions and
capacity in Moldova and as a call to attention by the
political opposition in Egypt.
The Failed States Index and the CAST framework is
frequently used by agencies from the World Bank to oil
and mining companies, from government agencies in
the United States and around the globe.
T he Failed States Index and the CAST framework are used extensively by
a variety of governments, institutions and corporations around the
world. The Failed States Index itself is an annual snapshot of the entire
U.S. Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton’s November 2010
presentation to Congress of her strategic
planning initiative for the State
Department included a slide drawn from
the Failed States Index.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates’
presentation of the Defense Department’s
“Quadrennial Defense Review” in 2010
contained material based on the Failed
States Index.
USAID requested that the Failed States
Index be made an integral part of their
Country Analytic Support project,
www.countrycompass.com
The staffs of the World Bank and
the International Monetary Fund
use the Failed States Index in
their analysis of regional and
national developments.
Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of
the IAEA and 2005 Nobel Peace Prize
Winner, said in 2010, “Egypt's presence
near the top of The Failed States Index is
a disaster that demands the urgent
attention of the Egyptian people.”
In response to his country’s position in
the 2007 Failed States Index, Moldovan
Prime Minister Vasile Tarleve formed a
task force to study the causes for
Moldova’s scores.
Some Fans of the Failed States Index
The strength of the Failed States Index is that it is more
than a list of countries. Certainly, the ranking of
states—from 2010’s most stable, Norway, to the least
stable, Somalia—draws substantial press attention and
comment. But what policy makers, international
institutions, corporations, academics and analysts focus
on most is the underlying data from the 12 indicators
and the many more sub-indicators. This is the kind of
information that not only explains the rankings
themselves, but also key areas that need to be
addressed to mitigate problems and improve state
functioning and stability. It can also help in the
consideration of public and private sector investment
priorities as well as help private sector firms better
identify and manage political and economic risk. As we
have seen in several countries, this underlying data can
also be used as a report card on how a government is
meeting key challenges.
www.fundforpeace.org 20 The Failed States Index
Who Uses the Failed States Index?
International Institutions
• World Bank
• International Monetary Fund
• United Nations
• NATO
• African Union
U.S. Government Agencies
• U.S. Agency for International Development
• U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
• U.S. Army Pacific Command (PACOM)
• U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
• U.S. Department of State
• U.S. Marine Corps
They All Use the Failed States Index
Foreign Government Agencies
• Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusam-
menarbeit und Entwicklung (Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation & Development), Germany
• Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken (Ministry of
Foreign Affairs), Netherlands Academic and Research Institutions
• Council on Foreign Relations
• National Defense University
• U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP)
Corporate Sector
• Multinational oil and mining companies use the
Failed States Index as an integral part of their development of global security strategy.
regional- and provincial-level analysis.
Along with the Failed States Index, The Fund for
Peace’s Conflict Assessment Software Tool (CAST) has
been the foundation of the Fund for Peace’s Country
Assessments Reports Service and Country Profiles
Program, using the content analysis to provide in-
depth assessments country-by-country.
CAST has been used to perform analysis at a sub-
regional level, from providing an assessment following
the floods in Pakistan’s Sindh province to
demonstrating how the situations in Mindanao in the
south of the Philippines and Luzon in the north can be
significantly different. Such regional-level analysis is
critical in properly understanding state instability. As
nations vary greatly from one another, often the
regions within countries will also vary greatly. A
country with a significant amount of instability in one
region may be perceived as itself unstable overall,
although the rest of the country is not experiencing
instability. Instances such as these may include
countries like Colombia (where although the FARC
insurgency continues deep in the jungles and along the
frontiers, the major cities such as Bogota, Medillin, Cali
and Cartagena enjoy relative calm) or the Philippines
(where the situation in the capital Manila is
significantly different to that experienced in the
southern island of Mindanao). This regional analysis
can not only further expand the understanding of a
country’s situation, but can also be used to highlight
precisely where the pressure points exist for a country,
and under precisely what conditions.
This analysis, coupled with regional contextualization,
provides a unique informational tool for policy-makers
to identify serious pressures and to enact sensible, well-
informed policies.
T he Failed States Index itself is just one of the many capabilities of The
Fund for Peace’s content analysis software. The software has many other
applications including specific risk assessment, and in-depth national-,
Below: Demographic pressures differentiated regionally throughout Pakistan, pre-flood (left) and post-flood (right).
Above: An analysis of various indicators applying to Sindh province, pre-flood (left) and post-flood (right)
Regional Analysis: Sindh Province, Pakistan
Sind
h
Sind
h
N.W.F.
N.W.F.
Punjab
Punjab
Balochistan Balochistan
Beyond The Failed States Index
www.fundforpeace.org 21 The Failed States Index
About The Fund for Peace
We promote sustainable security through research,
training and education, engagement of civil society,
building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing
innovative technologies and tools for policy makers.
A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning
field, the Fund for Peace focuses on the problems of
weak and failing states. Our objective is to create
practical tools and approaches for conflict mitigation
that are useful to decision-makers.
What Makes Us Unique
• The Fund for Peace adopts a holistic approach to
the issues stemming from weak and failing states.
We work at both the grassroots level with civil
society actors and at policy levels with key
decision makers.
• The Fund for Peace has worked in over 50
countries with a wide range of partners in all
sectors: governments, international organizations,
the military, nongovernmental organiza-
tions, academics, journalists, civil society net-
works, and the private sector.
• Combining social science techniques with
information technology, we have produced the
patented Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST),
a content analysis software product that provides a
conceptual framework and a data gathering
technique for measuring conflict risk.
• We produce The Failed States Index, an annual
ranking of 177 countries across 12 indicators, that
is published by Foreign Policy magazine.
Our Approach
The Fund for Peace offers a wide range of initiatives
focused on our central objective of promoting sustain-
able security, the ability of a state to solve its own
problems peacefully without an external military or
administrative presence. Our activities relate to six
interconnected themes: Conflict Assessment; Early
warning and State Building; Peace and Stability
Operations; Foreign Policy; Civil Society & Human
Rights; and Sustainable Development.
T he Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit
research and educational organization that works to prevent violent
conflict and promote sustainable security.
www.fundforpeace.org 22 The Failed States Index