The External Environment for Developing...

July 17, 2008

This monthly brief was prepared by a team of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG), led by Hans Timmer, and comprising Mick Riordan (G-3 countries, foreign exchange, overall edits), John Baffes (trade), Betty Dow and Shane Streifel (primary commodities), Eung Ju Kim (finance), Cristina Savsecu (production) and Gauresh Rajadhyaksha (high-frequency data and Annex). The note reflects the views of the team, but is not formally cleared by

the World Bank Group.

The External Environment for Developing Countries July 2008

Overview

Financial turmoil has entered a new phase with the failure of IndyMac, which was seized by federal regulators, and the halving of Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s share prices, triggering a rescue plan by the U.S. Treasury. Large public funds may be needed to prevent systemic failures in financial markets. Spreads increased worldwide, including for Emerging Markets where EMBIG spreads are now 50 basis points higher than a month ago. Global stock markets lost some 7.5% of their value in the same period.

Oil and food prices increased further in June, but appear to have stabilized in the first part of July. Inflation has become an increasing concern, and most central banks outside the United States are in tightening mode, which continues to put the dollar under pressure.

Bank lending to developing countries has remained remarkably resilient, adding up to $165 billion in the first half of 2008, the same as in the first half of 2007. In contrast, bond and equity issuance more than halved over the same period.

Recent indicators are largely downbeat for OECD growth in the second half of 2008, with the response of U.S. consumers to tax rebate checks disappointing in June, while consumer demand in Japan and the Euro Area is under extreme pressure due to mounting inflation. Business and consumer confidence surveys continue to breach fresh lows; and manufacturing output is moving toward decline. The U.S. housing crisis shows little or no sign of improvement.

Global industrial production and world trade slowed noticeably in the second quarter. Global export growth in the first quarter of 2008 was still relatively strong, driven largely by import demand in developing countries, but that import demand has decelerated sharply in recent months.

75

80

85

90

95

100

Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08

Source: Thomson/Datastream.

“Bear market” spurred by financial and inflation uncertainties

indexes, Jan1 2008=100

Dow Jones

MSI

TOPIX

CACI

U.S. inflation pipeline suggests further price hikes for consumer

Headline CPI, PPI- and Import price indexes, ch% 3mma y/y

0

3

5

8

10

Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-080

5

10

15

20

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.

PPI [left]

Import price [right]

CPI [left]

49384P

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Dis

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Aut

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Dis

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Aut

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Aut

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Aut

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Dis

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July 17, 2008 External Environment for Developing Countries page 2

Projections found in the indicators table are sourced from Global Development Finance-2008. The DECPG website Global Economic Monitor (GEM) continues to be enhanced—broadening the coverage of daily data and improving data access. We hope you find GEM useful for your daily work.

Global Indicators

Global Indicators

(Percentage change per annum, unless otherwise specified)

2005 2006 2007e 2008f

GDP volume: World 3.4 4.0 3.7 2.7 Memo item: World GDP at PPP weights 4.8 5.4 5.4 4.3 High-income countries 2.6 3.0 2.6 1.6 Developing countries 6.8 7.6 7.8 6.5 Industrial production: World (incl China) 4.6 5.5 5.5 ... High-income countries 2.1 3.0 2.5 ... Developing countries (incl China) 9.5 10.3 11.3 ...

Export volume (GNFS): World (incl China) 7.9 9.7 7.5 4.5 High-income countries 6.3 8.3 6.0 3.0 Developing countries (incl China) 12.7 13.4 11.3 8.1 Trade Prices ($): Manufacturing (MUV) 0.0 1.6 3.9 6.8 Oil ($/bbl) 53.4 64.3 71.2 108.1 Non-oil commodities 12.0 29.0 17.0 24.1

Nominal interest rates: $LIBOR (percent p.a.) 3.73 5.23 5.30 3.00 LIBOR (percent p.a.) 2.24 3.23 4.30 3.80 Financial flows FDI ($billion) 289 368 460 ... Gross Capital flowsa ($billion) 361 494 683 535 447 Equity placement ($bn) 59 111 194 88 98 Bond financing ($bn) 126 137 146 116 93 Lending ($bn) 175 246 343 330 256

Source: DECPG, July 2008.

Note(s): a. Gross inflows 2008 estimated on data to date. Figures in bold represent changes this month.


United States Stimulus effects. Rebate checks introduced to shore up consumer spending boosted growth in disposable incomes to 8.6% in May from 2% in April (saar). But only part of the additional income was immediately expended, carrying consumer outlays to growth of 5.2% from 3.4% (saar). Retail spending in May did respond well to the incentives, up 0.8% (m/m), but sales turned sluggish in June, as surging prices at gasoline stations and groceries absorbed a large portion of these funds. Sales increased a meager 0.1% in June with auto purchases dropping 20% during the second quarter (saar). A footnote: first-quarter GDP was revised to 1% from 0.9% growth on modestly stronger spending and exports. Headwinds pick up. Consumer expectations, measured for example by the Conference Board of New York, can offer a good proxy for recent changes in the economic environment—and this measure, the most pessimistic in June regarding the economic outlook in the 40-year history of the index—suggests that the number- and intensity of economic “headwinds” has picked up over the course of 2008. Falling home values (15% y/y in April according to Case/Schiller), surging energy and food costs, declining employment, continued financial spillovers of the sub-prime crisis (Fannie/Freddie) and volatility in equities and other financial markets appear likely to suppress consumption growth during the second half of the year. Has trade “cushion” run its course? Continued strong demand in emerging markets together with the weak dollar bolstered U.S. exports, just as sluggish domestic demand dampened imports during the second half of 2007, which offered a sizeable fillip to GDP growth. But export performance has fallen-off sharply, with volumes near zero growth in the second quarter; IP in manufacturing has borne the brunt. Though GDP gains in the second quarter may be stronger than earlier anticipated, growth during the second half of 2008 may well be weak.

Consumer expectations at record lows... a threat to second-half growth

expectations for economy: percentage of survey responses, 3mma

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

35


Source: Conference Board.

expectations “worse”

“better” minus “worse”

expectations “better”

Manufacturing losses had been spared worse outturns by overseas demand

goods export volume and IP, ch% saar

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Source: Department of Commerce, Thomson/Datastream.

Export volume [R]

IP manufacturing [L]

Stimulus checks boost disposable incomes in May – but outlays rise less

disposable income and personal consumption, ch% saar

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.

income personal consumption

retail sales


Japan

Households retrench. After an unusually strong showing in the first quarter, helping to buoy GDP growth to 4% (saar), Japan’s household spending dropped to negative territory as of April and May—suggesting a much weaker second quarter. Inflation ramped up to recent record highs—consumer prices increased 1.5% in June (y/y) after a 0.9% gain in May. And in turn Japan’s consumer confidence fell to the second lowest level on record, a reading of 34.5 in June down from 35.5 in May. Retail sales have followed a similar path, standing a meager 0.5% above May 2007. These results are consistent with a BOJ survey that showed more than half of Japanese households plan to pare spending this year. Exports stumble. Trade developments have been less than favorable over recent months. Export volumes, a pillar for Japan’s growth have eased from a 14% pace in October 2007 (saar) to 3.5% as of May. At the same time import volumes have dropped at a double-digit pace over the three months through May, echoing weakness in domestic conditions as well as the soft yen. Given the extreme weakness of imports, net trade is likely to continue to provide a boost to GDP, but the need to reinvigorate outbound shipments is important. Evidence suggests that demand is now easing in East Asia (excluding China for the most part), while exports to the United States continue in decline. Some hope for revival. Following disappointing order books in the last three months, domestic and especially foreign demand for Japan’s capital goods, materials and electronic equipment boomed 10% in May (m/m). Though this data can be volatile and subject to “bulky” orders for transport equipment and related goods this news offers some encouragement that exports and capital spending in Japan may have some life left—especially given the recent 7% easing of the yen vis-à-vis the dollar. Nonetheless, the BOJ’s policy committee agreed at their June meeting that the economy faces a number of hurdles over coming months in terms of export growth, inflation and effects of the latter on domestic demand.

Japan’s households retrench after strong spending in first quarter

retail sales volume and houshold expenditure, ch% 3mma y/y

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08

Source: Cabinet Office-- Thomson/Datastream.

HH expenditures

Retail sales

Japan’s export growth waningas import demand plummets

Export- and import volume growth, ch% saar

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30


Source: Japan Cabinet Office.

Exports

Imports

Fall of the yen and new orders growth sustain export hopes

USD per Yen index [right], and factory orders [left] ch% 3mma y/y

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-0895

100

105

110

115

120

Source: Japan Cabinet Office; Thomson/Datastream.

Dollar per Yen index [right]

Factory orders [left]


Euro Area

GDP mark-down. Euro Zone GDP was marked down for the first quarter to 2.9% from first estimates of 3.2% (saar)—still a positive, coming on the heels of a sluggish 1.4% advance in the final quarter of 2007. The contribution of net exports to GDP growth fell from 0.2 points to nil, as imports were revised up to 8.2% versus 7.7% in the first estimate; export performance was unchanged at 7.9%. And outturns for fixed investment dropped to growth of 6.5% against first estimates of 6.7%. Indicators covering the months since March have documented a sharp deterioration in European conditions for growth, and the potential for a negative second quarter GDP outturn cannot be ruled out. Indicators point to weakness. The tenor of recent data has turned increasingly negative. A key example is a sharp falloff in German export orders and export volumes. The former falling from 15% gains in January (saar) to 3.7% as of May; the latter remaining in single digits for all of 2008. PMI surveys show that Europe’s manufacturing, services and retail industries contracted in June as the rising euro reduced export competitiveness and soaring food and energy prices undermined purchasing power and sales. Manufacturing output dropped the most in 16 years during May, while business and consumer surveys continue in decline. These data have prompted analysts at Citi-Group, JPMorgan and other institutions to call for a negative quarter of GDP growth for the April-June interval, the first such falloff in a decade. ECB lifts rates. The ECB raised its benchmark policy rate by a quarter-point to 4.25% on July 3, in an effort to anchor inflation expectations, carrying the target lending rate to the highest level in 7 years. At the press conference following the rate action, Jean-Claude Trichet said “Starting from here, I have no bias. We have no pre-commitment.” This triggered a fall of the euro against the dollar, disappointing markets which apparently had anticipated a sustained bias toward further rate increases. The ECB’s action comes after months of increasing pressure not to raise rates for fear of putting a damper on Europe’s fragile growth outlook.

1.2

3.22.9

-2

0

2

4

Q4-2 007 Q1-2 008 -P Q1 -200 8-F

Source: Eurostat and DECPG calculations.

Euro Area first-quarter GDPmarked down on investment and net-X

growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points

Change in StocksFixed Investment

GovernmentConsumptionNet exports

German exports drop sharply in May in step with export orders growth

export volumes and overseas factory orders, ch% 3mma

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5


Source: Bundesbank-- Thomson/Datastream.

Export volume

Export orders

HICP breaches 16-year highs illiciting ECB 25-bp rate hike

HICP ch% y/y and ECB policy rate (%)

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08

HICP

Source: Eurostat through Thomson/Datastream.


Industrial Production Global production on a downtrend. Industrial production (IP) growth has eased in recent months across all developing regions, as growth in high income countries slowed substantially in the beginning of the second quarter, and inflationary pressures and softening consumer spending took an additional toll on demand within emerging markets. ECA has joined other developing regions in the downturn, after a surprisingly strong first quarter. Weaker demand growth in western Europe has been a key element pushing IP growth to 4% in May in the Slovak Republic from 9.8% in April (y/y); to 4.2% from 6.5% in Hungary; 2.7% from 13.3% in Romania and 2.4% from 6.5% in Turkey. China’s production still going strong, bucking the global trend. Production growth remains strong in China, exceeding 15% year-on-year in the first five months of 2008 despite increased volatility on account of seasonal and weather effects. Strong domestic demand is boosting output growth, shielding China’s industry from the woes of the global slowdown experienced by much of the emerging world. China’s emerging market neighbors proved much more sensitive to the global slowdown currently underway, with output growth in other East Asian markets decelerating to 5.5% year-on-year in May from growth of 8.3% during the first quarter of 2008. In Germany lower orders signal trouble. IP tanked in Germany during May following a strong first quarter, confirming expectations of deterioration in economic conditions as indicated, e.g. in the ZEW survey which reached its lowest reading since December 1992. Industrial output growth dropped to below 1% year-on-year in May, from growth rates in excess of 4.5% in the first four months of the year. The falloff comes as manufacturing orders slid 9.9% in the three months through May (saar), with export orders falling 13% and domestic orders down 7%.

Other East Asia

Latin America and the Carribean

Industrial production growth across developing regions is slowing

IP ch% saar: ECA, LAC [left]; Other East Asia [right]

-4

0

4

8

12

16

Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08-10

0

10

20

30

40

Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

Europe and Central Asia

China remains strong; output in the remainder of East Asia is lapsing

IP ch% saar

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30



Other East Asia

China

Weaker manufacturing orders take a toll on German production

IP ch% saar: production [left], orders [right]

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25


IP

Manufacturing orders*

* One month lag


International Trade

G-3 export growth wanes. A common factor likely to affect economic outturns across the OECD is a fairly clear slowing of goods export growth during the second quarter of 2008. This is somewhat of a “downside” surprise, as it was hoped that robust demand conditions in emerging markets generally—and in oil exporting countries specifically—would help to buoy G-3 exports, offsetting the slowdown in domestic demand in these countries. A combination of currency appreciation (Europe) and increasingly sluggish import demand in key developing countries (as well as other high-income economies) appears to be taking its toll. U.S. exports dropped from recent peak growth of 8.4% in February to 2.1% in May (saar); that in Japan from 14.5% in October 2007 to 3.5% and in Germany easing from 5.2% in March to 3.6% in May. Export markets slow. Recent developments in nominal import growth across large country- and regional segments of global demand reveal a fairly marked fall-off in growth (though nominal imports are a second best proxy for “real” demand, availability and timeliness of the data is an important factor). For all high-income countries (the market in which the bulk of G-3 transactions take place), import growth dropped by 10 points since January 2008 to 20% in April (saar). For the non-OECD high-income economies (the NIES plus GCC countries of the Gulf), import momentum has halved from 34% in January to 17% in May (saar). And for select countries, Russia, Brazil and Taiwan (China), deceleration in imports has been exceptional. High-tech exporters suffer. A factor overlaid on the current cyclical situation is the onset of a deep trough in the global ‘high-tech’ cycle, accentuated by the slowing of demand generally. High-tech exporters have found shipments falling quickly, while industrial production has been scaled back sharply. Among hardest hit: Hong Kong (SAR, China), Malaysia, Taiwan (PC) and Thailand.

G-3 exports slow into second quarter of 2008

export volumes, ch% saar

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2007M1 2007M3 2007M5 2007M7 2007M9 2007M11 2008M1 2008M3 2008M5

Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG calculations.

Japan

USA

Germany

Export market demand falling more quickly than anticipated

nominal imports, ch% saar

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2007M1 2007M3 2007M5 2007M7 2007M9 2007M11 2008M1 2008M3 2008M5


Taiwan, China

Russia

East Asia

High-income

BrazilNon-OECD

High-income

High-tech exporters see slowdown in outbound shipments

nominal exports, ch% saar

-25.0

-12.5

0.0

12.5

25.0

37.5

50.0

62.5

2007M1 2007M3 2007M5 2007M7 2007M9 2007M11 2008M1 2008M3


Taiwan, China

Thailand

Malaysia

Hong Kong SAR China


Commodity Prices

Oil prices up on supply, tight distillate market. Crude oil prices (WTI) rose to more than $145/bbl in early July on low stocks, sluggish supply growth and a tight distillate market. Non-OPEC supply slowed sharply in the second half of 2007 and recorded a decline in the second quarter of this year. Production in Russia—which has provided much of the growth in non-OPEC supply this decade—declined for the first in 9 years in 2008. While OECD oil demand fell more than 1% in the first half of 2008, demand in developing countries continued at a brisk 4% pace. Saudi Arabia announced it would raise production 0.2mb/d in July, on top of a 0.3mb/d increase in June, but does not appear prepared to force its oil onto the market via price discounts. Middle distillate market tight. A factor contributing to higher oil prices is tightness in the middle distillate (gasoil) market. Refiners are struggling to produce ultra-low sulfur diesel in the United States and Europe, and this is causing them to bid up the price of light crudes which are rich in distillate yield. Moreover, emergency power generation needs in Australia, South Africa and South America are partly being supplied with diesel generators. Together with China’s surging distillate imports these factors have tightened the diesel market. U.S. gasoline prices at the refinery gate are weak due to falling demand and increasing volumes of ethanol being pushed into the gasoline pool—requiring less refined-gasoline. “Speculators” driving up oil prices? In the last year when oil prices doubled to $140/bbl, total open interest in WTI crude-oil futures contracts on the NYMEX declined. Open interest positions for non-commercial and non-reporting participants (deemed “speculators”) also fell over the period. “Speculators” hold significant short positions as well as long positions (ratio 42/58—excluding spread contracts) and long positions (and their net-long positions) declined the in past year. On NYMEX, at least, there is no evidence that a surge in long-only speculative investment has driven up oil prices.

Oil prices climb on low stocks and sluggish supply growth

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-082400

2500

2600

2700

2800$/bbl million bbl

WB Oil price [L scale]

OECD stocks [R]

Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

Tight distillate market bidding up prices for light crudes

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan-06 Jan-07 Dec-07

$/bbl

Crude (WTI)

Gasoline

Distillate

Price differentials relative to crude

Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.

Open Interest Crude Oil NYMEX (‘000 lots)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Jan-02Jan-03

Jan-04Jan-05

Jan-06Jan-07

Dec-07

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160$/bblOpen interest

Source: NYMEX and DECPG Commodities Group.


Agriculture prices up 15th straight month. Agriculture rose 4% in June, continuing its upward climb, with increases across all main groups. The largest was an 18% jump in maize due a large drop in U.S. plantings that may be further affected by recent flooding in the Midwest. The entire soybean complex rose 6-10% due in part to flooding and strong global demand for food, feed and biofuels. Cocoa prices rose 12% linked to reports of lower-than-expected output and quality of beans from Côte d'Ivoire. And rubber prices climbed 8% on higher oil prices and strong demand in China. Only rice recorded a large decline, falling 14% from its recent spike on favorable prospects for new crops. Metals prices fall on demand concerns and improving supply. Most metals prices eased further in July on growing concerns about global demand, rising stocks and improved supply prospects. Lead, nickel and zinc prices have more-than halved from their peaks last year due to these factors. Copper prices remain firm because of supply shortfalls and low stocks, and the sector has been plagued by numerous strikes which has disrupted output. Prices for energy-intensive aluminum—which have not increased like other metals during this cycle—are now rising on concerns about power availability and pricing and recently announced production cuts in China. Prices for many resource commodities soar where futures markets do not exist. Many resource-based commodities—such as iron ore, coking coal, coke, fertilizers, and many minor metals such as ferrochrome—where futures markets do not exist, have risen several fold in recent years. Prices for these and other commodities have soared because of strong growth in demand, particularly in China, and difficulties of industry keeping pace. Investment during years of low prices was insufficient to meet accelerating demand this decade. New capacity and export infrastructure involves long lead-times and industry has been plagued by rising costs and taxes, shortages of skilled workers and materials, and appreciating currencies that squeeze profits.

100125150

175200225250275300

325350

Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08

Grains

Fats & Oils

Other Food

Beverages

Continued gains in food prices(2000=100)

Source: DECPG Commodities Group.

Copper and aluminum remain firmwhile other metals prices drop

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Jan-05Jan-06

Jan-07Jan-08

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000Cu/Al $/ton Ni $/ton

Nickel

Copper

Aluminum

Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06

Iron Ore Prices ($/mt)

Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.


International Finance

Bank lending up. Gross flows to emerging markets increased to $58 billion in June from May’s $45 billion, as bank lending jumped 48% to $36 billion. Despite the upturn, capital flows for the first half of 2008 stand 25% below year-earlier levels, with equity placements down 50%, flows to Emerging Europe off 34% and those to Asia falling 18%. June’s banking rebound was attributable to a pickup in lending to Russia and Poland, of which most funds were channeled to the oil & gas industry. Bond issuance increased to $19 billion despite increasing signs of deterioration in market conditions. Several countries including Ukraine and Vietnam postponed their planned Eurobond issues. And heightened volatility in stock markets knocked equity placement for a decline of 60% in June.

A tale of two markets. World equity markets dropped $4.7 trillion in value during the first half of 2008. This, while commodity markets achieved their best first-half performance in more-than 50 years. Inflation fears slammed global equities late in the second quarter, resulting in a year-to-date loss of 18.1% for the MSCI world equity index. In contrast, the Jefferies-Reuters CRB spot index, a global benchmark for commodities gained 30% this year, reaching record highs in early July. Some of 2007’s high performing equity bourses, such as China and India, have seen the biggest losses in the first half of 2008; while commodity-rich countries such as Brazil and Canada have posted strong gains.

High-yield assets suffer. Global high-yield bond markets have been affected by acute risk aversion, with developed- and emerging market indexes falling sharply since early June. The EMBIG bond index dropped 2.1% in June, pushing the year-to-date return to negative territory at -0.4%. The EM bond index has outperformed all other debt markets for the last 15 years, but this year’s return is likely to be negative for the first since 1998. Returns for OECD-market HY bonds fell 2.3% in June, resulting in losses of 2.5% for the year-to-date. The appetite for global bond mutual funds remains weak, with year-to-date outflows exceeding $15 billion, according to Emerging Portfolio Fund Research.

Bank lending leads flows in June

Source: DECPG Finance Team.

Gro s s capital flo w s to emerg in g m arket s

$ billio n 2 006

T otal H 1 H2 To tal H1 Apr M a y Ju n

T otal 494 357 32 6 6 83 267 48 45 5 8

Bon ds 137 107 3 9 1 46 58 13 12 1 9

Ban ks 246 164 18 0 3 43 165 22 24 3 6

Equ ity 111 86 10 7 1 94 44 13 8 3

Lat . A m eric a 116 69 8 8 1 57 54 14 12 9 Bon ds 41 31 1 4 45 17 5 6 1

E . Eu rope 179 156 9 6 2 52 104 15 16 3 5

Bon ds 64 50 1 4 64 33 7 5 1 5

A sia 153 110 11 3 2 13 90 16 13 1 1

Bon ds 19 18 6 23 7 0 1 3

Other s 45 32 2 8 60 20 3 4 2

200 7 20 08

1,350

1,400

1,450

1,500

1,550

1,600


350

375

400

425

450

475

Source: Bloomberg.

Equity market downturn appears mirrored in commodity market gains

MSCI global equities (USD) [left]; Reuters/Jeffries CRN [right]

MSCI equity [left ]

CRN commodities [right]

255

260

265

270

275


410

415

420

Source: JPMorgan-Chase and Morgan-Stanley.

Returns on high-yield assetssuffer amid flight to quality

Developed market- high-yield bond index [left]; EMBIG [right]

EMBIG [right]

JPMorgan Developed HY [left]


Currencies

Dollar mixed against majors. Over June- and July to date developments in financial markets have played a prominent role in setting the dollar’s course. The long-anticipated hike in policy rates by the ECB on July 3, contrasted with a view for no near-term change in Fed Funds, carried the U.S. unit to $1.5914 against the euro. And as share prices of Fannie and Freddie dropped precipitously over the week of July 7-11, and the collapse of IntMac combined to heighten market tensions, the greenback fell yet lower to reach $1.5948, an all-time low. The story had been different for yen-dollar, where the greenback continued its move-up, largely on the back of unwinding carry trades in yen. However, financial uncertainties caught up, and the yen appreciated by a sharp 2.6% between July 10 and the 15th to stand at ¥104.66. Oil and the dollar. The dollar’s sharp decline against the euro, as well as several other OECD currencies and EM units, has created large negative exposures for foreign investors holding dollar denominated assets. Potential capital losses could be enormous as currency movements continue to diverge. Aside from traditional exposure management techniques such as the use of forwards-, futures contracts, options on futures or interest rate swaps, some investors may be eyeing contracts in crude oil to offset the losses on dollar-based assets. There are market players on the “other side” of this problem—oil exporters (GCC), whose oil receipts in dollars present a mismatch against their payables in euro—the choice import market for the group. EM currencies mixed. Emerging market units have been mixed over the last months. The Turkish lira and Korean won depreciated sharply against the dollar over the year through May, as the Philippine peso fell moderately, the Indonesian rupiah appreciated modestly and the Brazilian reis powered higher against the dollar. Over the last months, the lira has rebounded (in the wake of policy action), the peso has dropped and the reis continued to appreciate. In the last days of financial tension most currencies registered large gains.

1.410

1.430

1.450

1.470

1.490

1.510

1.530

1.550

1.570

1.590

1.610


96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112


yen/USD

USD/Euro (inverse)

Dollar continues move-up on yen... step-down on euro at ECB rate hike

USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right]

Is oil being viewed as a dollar hedge? USD nominal effective rate [left], oil price [right], index 2000=100

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Jan-00 Nov-00 Sep-01 Jul-02 May-03 Mar-04 Jan-05 Nov-05 Sep-06 Jul-07 May-0850

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG Commodities Group.

Oil price [right]

USD NEER [left]

90

95

100

105

110

115



Emerging market currencies show mixed movements against the dollar LCU per USD indexes, Jan1 2008=100 [*increase = weaker LCU]

Turkish lira

Brazilian reis

Indonesian rupiah

Korean won

Philippine peso


Focus

Dilek Aykut, E.J. Kim and Haocong Ren Liquidity and credit problems at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac1 triggered a new wave of financial stress in U.S. markets during the first weeks of July, with as yet limited impact on emerging markets. As share prices of both lenders fell dramatically (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stocks had fallen 50% and 56%, respectively, from the start of July through July 14), authorities stepped up efforts to calm markets and reassure investors of the government’s support, including access to the Federal Reserve’s liquidity window, and equity infusion by the U.S. Treasury in order to boost the capital of the two ailing mortgage institutions. Following the government’ rescue plan, CDS spreads on bonds issued by the two mortgage agencies declined sharply, reflecting investors positive reactions. And Freddie Mac completed its auction of $3 billion of 3-month and 6-month securities as scheduled on July 14. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac together hold or guarantee 43% of total U.S. residential mortgage debt outstanding of $12 trillion ($3 trillion by Fannie Mae and $2.2 trillion by Freddie Mac) as of May 2008. These include their mortgage portfolios, mortgage backed securities (MBS) and other guarantees. Between them, Fannie and Freddie have about $90 billion in capital as a cushion against future loan losses. By contrast, the

1 Fannie Mae (Federal National Mortgage Association) and

Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation) are

publicly traded companies based in the United States that

were created by the government in 1933 and 1968

respectively to provide liquidity to the mortgage market and

bolster home ownership. Although they are private companies

with stockholders and profits, they are “government-sponsored

enterprises” (GSEs) established by federal law, which means

that they receive special privileges. They are regulated by

Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) and

enjoy government protection in having access to a line of

credit through the U.S. Treasury, exemption from state and

local income taxes, and exemption from SEC regulatory

oversight.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5/1 /2008 6/1/2008 7/1/2008

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac

Share pr ic es ($)


Fannie and Freddie share prices halve over the 2nd week of July

Fredd ie , 2 .2 tri l lion

Fann ie , 3 .0 tr il l ion

Others , 6 .9 tr il lion

Source: OFHEO.

Mortgage portfolios and guarantees held by Fannie and Freddie


two companies lost a combined $11.8 billion in the nine months ended March 31, 2008. Until recently, the two GSEs have enjoyed access to funding through agency debt issuance- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac issued agency debt of $93 billion and $93.6 billion, respectively, in the first quarter of 2008, an increase of 53.7% and 30%, respectively, from the year-earlier period. Measures taken over the last days have helped to ease market tensions. Such actions include U.S. Treasury seeking authorization from the Congress to take equity positions in Fannie

and Freddie, as a means of infusing equity capital. Treasury will also seek congressional approval to increase its existing line of credit to the GSEs above the

present $2.25 billion limit. Treasury officials have facilitated demand for Freddie Mac's debt offering of $3 billion on Monday, July 14. And the Fed Board of

Governors voted to grant the GSEs access to lines of credit from the New York Federal Reserve, effectively giving them access to the discount window. This is

intended to supplement the Treasury's existing line of lending. Fed lending would be on the same terms for the two GSEs as banks (currently at 2.25%) and

collateralized by U.S. government and federal agency securities. At the same time, this would further give the Federal Reserve a consultative role in the new GSE

regulatory process for setting capital requirements and other prudential standards. Implications of further difficulties at the mortgage institutions could be widespread. Foreign official institutions hold about $750 billion of agency bonds, which represent a sizeable portion of international reserves held by major central banks around the world. As bonds issued by GSEs benefit from the “implicit” guarantee of the U.S. government, central banks have traditionally chosen to invest in such assets. Impacts on emerging market debt appear to have been limited to date. EMBIG spreads widened early last week, as concerns with the liquidity situation of the two mortgage agencies heightened, but narrowed by end-week.

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jan-08 F eb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Ju l -08

Fann ie Mae

CD S spreads of F reddie M ac an d F an nie M ae

Basis po ints

Fredd ie M ac


Market tension eases post actions by Treasury and Federal Reserve

0

2 50

5 00

7 50

1 ,0 00

1 ,2 50

1 ,5 00

T r eas ury bo nd s Ag en cy bo nds C or p. bo nd s C or p. s tocks

$ bi llio n

Va lu e o f U S L T se cu r ities held b y fo reig n off ic ial in stitu t io n s(A s of J un e 30 , 20 07)

Source: U.S. Treasury.

Further difficulties could carry worldwide repercussions


Weights Average 2007 2008 2008 2008

2000 1998-07 2005 2006 2007 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Mar Apr May Jun

World 100.0 3.4 4.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 4.2 5.0 .. 0.4 0.0 0.0 ..

High-income countries 77.5 1.8 2.1 3.0 2.5 4.9 1.1 0.5 .. -0.7 0.0 -0.6 ..

Industrial countries 73.0 1.8 2.0 3.2 2.7 5.0 1.0 0.1 .. -0.7 0.1 -0.5 ..

United States 25.2 2.1 3.3 2.2 1.7 3.6 0.3 -0.3 .. 0.1 -0.7 -0.2 ..

Japan 17.5 0.7 1.6 4.1 2.9 6.8 2.6 -1.7 .. -3.5 -0.1 2.8 ..

Euro Area 23.0 1.9 0.8 3.4 2.9 4.8 0.8 1.9 .. -0.6 0.6 -2.2 ..

United Kindgom 4.1 0.0 -2.0 0.3 0.3 -1.3 0.9 -0.9 .. -0.4 0.1 -0.8 ..

Other high income 4.5 2.2 4.6 1.6 0.7 7.4 4.8 12.9 .. 0.0 -0.5 .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 0.2 -3.4 2.4 2.4 -1.5 -3.5 8.2 -17.2 .. -7.6 .. .. ..

Singapore 0.4 6.7 9.2 12.1 6.4 30.6 -30.6 46.8 .. 3.4 -10.2 -5.6 ..

Taiwan (China) 1.1 5.2 3.5 4.6 8.2 19.5 13.2 -2.3 .. -1.3 2.2 -0.8 ..

Developing countries 22.5 7.2 9.5 10.3 11.2 6.5 9.6 12.3 .. 2.2 0.3 0.6 ..

East Asia and Pacific 8.7 11.0 13.8 14.3 15.9 8.8 11.6 18.9 .. 3.7 -0.3 1.7 ..

China 6.3 13.4 15.6 16.5 17.7 9.1 12.3 20.1 .. 4.5 -0.6 1.8 ..

Indonesia 0.9 1.1 1.9 -2.0 5.6 -1.7 -3.0 19.0 .. 0.2 1.3 -0.4 ..

Thailand 0.6 7.0 9.1 7.4 8.2 18.8 16.7 8.1 .. -3.7 1.2 1.6 ..

Malaysia 0.5 5.1 3.6 5.0 2.3 4.6 9.0 2.8 .. -4.5 3.0 -0.1 ..

Europe and Central Asia 3.2 4.9 4.9 8.6 7.2 4.9 6.7 6.1 .. 1.4 1.5 -2.4 ..

Russian Federation 1.0 4.3 4.3 7.7 6.3 3.6 7.4 2.1 .. 7.8 -2.8 1.6 ..

Turkey 0.5 3.8 5.9 5.9 5.2 5.9 5.5 10.3 .. 0.9 -0.2 -2.4 ..

Poland 0.6 6.5 4.7 11.8 9.5 7.2 8.5 15.6 .. -4.7 7.5 -6.7 ..

Czech Republic 0.2 5.3 7.3 11.0 8.8 2.7 12.2 7.0 .. -4.6 8.3 -6.4 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 5.9 2.4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.7 7.1 0.6 .. -1.5 1.6 .. ..

Brazil 1.5 2.8 3.4 2.9 5.9 6.3 7.4 1.8 .. 0.5 0.2 -0.5 ..

Mexico 1.7 .. 2.9 5.4 1.8 3.4 0.6 -0.7 .. -0.3 -1.8 .. ..

Argentina 0.8 2.7 8.2 6.9 6.2 4.8 16.7 3.1 .. -1.2 1.6 0.8 ..

Colombia 0.3 2.8 3.9 10.7 10.7 1.7 9.5 -9.5 .. -15.1 19.7 .. ..

Middle East and North Africa 1.9 2.5 4.2 -0.5 -0.2 -3.3 4.6 7.4 .. 0.4 0.5 .. ..

Saudi Arabia 1.2 0.4 4.9 -4.2 -4.7 -0.6 19.1 10.0 .. 0.3 -1.2 .. ..

Iran 0.4 0.7 3.4 -2.7 -2.9 -3.6 1.4 11.3 .. 0.9 0.0 .. ..

Egypt 0.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Algeria 0.3 3.7 7.2 0.9 1.1 -0.3 5.3 1.8 .. 0.0 1.5 .. ..

South Asia 1.6 6.8 9.1 10.6 9.0 3.3 4.3 8.3 .. -0.4 0.5 -1.2 ..

India 1.3 6.7 7.9 10.6 9.9 3.3 9.1 7.0 .. -0.7 0.3 -1.2 ..

Pakistan 0.2 7.6 15.0 10.6 5.5 1.7 -22.3 17.0 .. 1.7 2.1 .. ..

Bangladesh 0.1 .. 12.6 10.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka 0.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.1 2.6 5.0 4.7 6.7 4.5 16.4 -1.4 .. -2.0 .. .. ..

South Africa 0.4 2.2 3.6 4.8 4.2 -2.4 11.2 -1.9 .. -4.0 7.9 -3.8 ..

Nigeria 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.7 0.2 8.6 2.6 -7.6 .. -0.7 .. .. ..

Memo:

OECD 76.2 1.9 2.2 3.4 2.8 4.9 1.1 0.5 .. -0.8 0.2 -0.8 ..

Developing excl. China 16.2 3.3 4.9 5.3 5.6 3.9 7.1 4.7 .. -0.4 1.2 .. ..

Developing oil exporters 2.8 0.3 2.6 -1.2 1.0 -0.7 2.0 8.1 .. 0.1 0.9 .. ..

Dev. non-oil exporters 19.7 8.2 10.4 11.7 12.4 7.2 10.4 12.9 .. 2.4 0.2 0.7 ..

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.1 Global industrial production growth(constant prices; percent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are in percent change over previous month a/)

aIn general, series refer to industrial production excluding construction (e.g. manufacturing, mining and utilitites). Where this is not available the closest proxy is used, often manufacturing output or oil output, if the country is a major oil producer.




Real GDP a

High-income countries 78.5 2.5 2.5 3.0 2.6 4.0 1.8 1.6 .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 75.3 2.4 2.5 2.9 2.5 3.4 1.6 2.0 .. .. .. .. ..

United States 10.9 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.2 4.9 0.6 1.0 .. .. .. .. ..

Japan 20.7 1.2 1.9 2.4 2.0 0.9 2.9 4.0 .. .. .. .. ..

Euro Area 27.3 2.2 1.8 2.9 2.6 2.5 1.4 2.9 .. .. .. .. ..

United Kindgom 6.4 2.8 1.8 2.9 3.1 2.3 2.2 1.1 .. .. .. .. ..

Other high income 3.2 4.2 5.5 5.9 6.1 24.8 10.1 -9.1 .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 0.7 .. 7.1 7.0 6.4 40.4 19.7 -23.7 .. .. .. .. ..

Singapore 0.4 5.2 7.3 8.2 7.7 5.1 -4.8 14.6 .. .. .. .. ..

Taiwan (China) 1.4 4.3 4.2 4.9 5.7 31.6 11.4 -11.8 .. .. .. .. ..

Real merchandise imports b

High-income countries 100.0 .. 6.6 6.8 4.1 4.5 3.9 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 88.3 .. 6.0 6.2 2.7 3.1 2.5 2.0 .. -2.6 2.3 .. ..

United States 23.8 8.2 5.9 5.7 1.3 0.5 -0.5 -2.4 .. -6.8 2.6 -1.9 ..

Japan 6.7 5.2 3.5 3.9 -3.1 -4.8 -3.4 -2.2 .. 1.5 -0.1 -1.5 ..

Euro Area 37.1 .. 5.7 5.5 6.6 6.7 5.2 6.4 .. 0.6 3.6 .. ..

United Kindgom 6.7 6.3 6.8 10.6 -4.7 3.9 3.2 0.1 .. -3.5 1.6 -0.9 ..

Other high income 11.7 5.6 9.4 9.3 10.5 11.2 10.3 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 4.1 6.6 8.5 10.1 10.4 9.9 10.2 8.2 .. 4.5 6.4 .. ..

Singapore 2.3 5.2 8.6 11.2 6.3 3.5 8.4 14.6 .. 3.4 5.8 -8.9 ..

Taiwan (China) 2.2 .. 1.1 3.8 -0.3 2.7 0.1 6.4 -3.6 8.0 -11.5 -5.8 6.2

Import Prices c

High-income countries 100.0 .. 6.7 6.2 6.5 5.3 11.8 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 88.3 .. 7.2 6.6 7.3 6.2 13.0 17.4 .. 3.3 1.3 .. ..

United States 23.8 -0.1 7.5 4.9 4.2 3.2 10.6 14.1 18.7 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.6

Japan 6.7 -1.4 10.2 8.2 10.5 10.2 18.6 27.3 .. 4.7 -3.8 4.5 ..

Euro Area 37.1 .. 7.6 9.0 8.2 6.7 13.5 18.7 .. 3.2 1.5 .. ..

United Kindgom 6.7 -1.1 3.6 5.0 10.2 8.7 12.0 11.7 .. 3.7 1.3 1.1 ..

Other high income 11.7 -1.0 4.4 4.6 3.5 2.2 6.9 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 4.1 -1.2 1.9 1.2 -0.3 -0.9 0.1 1.9 .. 0.5 0.2 .. ..

Singapore 2.3 -0.2 6.4 7.5 3.5 1.5 10.6 14.9 .. 1.9 3.1 3.4 ..

Taiwan (China) 2.2 -1.6 6.4 7.6 8.0 5.8 13.3 19.7 23.4 3.7 2.4 3.3 2.3

Real effective exchange rates d

Euro Area 33.5 1.4 -0.8 0.9 4.1 2.8 6.4 7.4 8.0 2.9 1.0 -0.9 0.4

United States 14.4 -1.0 -2.7 -2.7 -4.7 -4.3 -7.8 -9.8 -9.1 -2.7 -0.6 0.2 0.9

Japan 7.4 -2.3 -5.1 -8.9 -6.5 -6.2 -3.4 4.1 6.3 4.3 -2.4 -1.2 -1.8

United Kindgom 5.4 0.0 -2.4 -0.2 2.1 2.0 -2.6 -8.8 -10.1 -1.8 -1.4 0.7 -0.8

Canada 3.5 0.5 3.5 3.2 0.8 2.8 8.7 5.8 -3.1 -1.5 -2.2 0.4 -2.1

Hong Kong (China) 3.5 -2.7 -3.7 -2.6 -4.9 -4.4 -6.3 -9.6 -10.9 -3.7 -0.4 0.3 0.4

Korea, Rep. 2.5 0.6 10.4 6.9 -0.5 -0.5 -2.7 -6.7 -11.4 -5.6 1.2 -2.1 -0.7

Singapore 2.3 0.9 4.6 5.4 7.3 6.1 4.5 3.0 4.9 0.8 1.8 1.6 1.1

Taiwan (China) 2.1 -2.1 -1.9 0.1 -1.3 -2.7 -3.4 -3.5 -2.5 -0.4 0.5 1.2 0.9

Switzerland 1.7 -0.7 -3.8 -4.3 -4.9 -4.9 -4.2 1.1 2.6 3.2 -0.5 -2.5 0.6

Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change)

a/ Real GDP aggregated using 1995 weights.b/ On a customs or BoP basis, as available. Weights are 1995 merchandise import: aggregate calculated as sum of components.c/ Aggregate prices are implicit prices of aggregate US dollar value divided by aggregate constant 1995 dollar volume.d/ JP Morgan Trade Weighted Indices (Real, Broad basis). Data are averages of monthly data for the period in question.


Weights Average 2007 2008 2008 2008 Latest

1995 1998-07 2005 2006 2007 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Apr May Jun 16-Jul

Policy Rates

United States .. 3.78 3.21 4.96 5.02 5.09 4.48 3.16 2.09 2.27 1.99 2.00 2.06

Japan .. 0.31 0.10 0.24 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75

Euro Area .. .. 2.02 2.76 3.84 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.25

United Kindgom .. 5.05 4.65 4.64 5.51 5.74 5.68 5.35 5.03 5.08 5.00 5.00 5.00

Ten year bond

United States .. 4.86 4.28 4.78 4.63 4.74 4.27 3.69 3.85 3.62 3.87 4.06 3.83

Japan .. 1.49 1.38 1.74 1.67 1.72 1.56 1.39 1.60 1.38 1.64 1.77 1.61

Euro Area .. .. 3.35 3.73 4.20 4.35 4.23 3.97 4.24 4.04 4.19 4.50 4.41

United Kindgom .. 4.88 4.41 4.48 5.01 5.19 4.82 4.50 4.80 4.53 4.79 5.06 4.87

Spreads (Basis points)b,c

Developing countries .. 455 306 198 197 216 235 295 281 295 275 274 319

East Asia and Pacific .. 243 265 180 161 181 197 257 253 254 244 262 318

China .. 76 58 64 71 76 104 140 139 157 128 132 143

Indonesia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Thailand .. .. 50 54 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Malaysia .. 134 84 84 87 97 109 131 135 136 128 141 158

Europe and Central Asia .. 352 185 149 158 165 185 237 237 244 225 241 286

Russian Federation .. 348 156 111 121 131 152 191 169 185 161 162 203

Turkey .. 476 274 223 214 219 229 292 312 312 296 330 384

Poland .. 106 51 59 61 69 73 108 104 106 101 106 122

Czech Republic .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean .. 549 364 213 208 231 251 314 296 314 290 283 327

Brazil .. 635 394 233 180 187 198 258 214 243 204 194 241

Mexico .. 221 167 137 126 130 150 190 162 171 155 162 205

Argentina .. 3020 2586 343 320 414 388 483 557 556 553 562 642

Colombia .. 412 323 194 161 167 182 251 192 216 179 181 229

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 324 338 476 514 539 546 505 548 508 458 475

Saudi Arabia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt .. .. 65 79 86 80 154 230 180 219 172 148 238

Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia d .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

India .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Pakistan .. .. 199 199 283 374 423 568 596 543 568 675 771

Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. 443 277 266 288 285 315 402 338 394 368 252 295

South Africa .. 169 95 90 100 118 138 233 215 227 208 211 243

Nigeria .. 746 417 245 77 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Gross inflows e

Developing countries .. .. 361 494 683 179 147 116 151 48 45 58 ..

East Asia and Pacific .. .. 85 111 145 38 38 28 23 11 6 6 ..

Europe and Central Asia .. .. 129 179 252 47 49 38 65 15 16 35 ..

Latin America and Carribean .. .. 87 116 157 57 32 19 36 14 12 9 ..

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 22 16 15 6 3 3 7 2 4 2 ..

South Asia .. .. 22 42 69 22 15 22 16 4 7 5 ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. 15 30 46 9 10 6 3 2 1 1 ..

Table A.3 Global credit conditions(percent unless otherwise indicated a/)

a/Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures, except the last month, which are the values reported on the mentioned date. Quarterly and Annual figures are simple averages of the monthly figures.b/Average values for Spreads are for the period 1996-2003.c/Aggregates as defined by JP Morgan.d/East Asia and Pacific including South Asian countries.e/In billions of US dollars.


Weightsb Average 2007 2008 2008 2008


Energy .. .. 188.2 220.9 244.8 251.1 298.6 331.1 417.8 352.7 376.6 421.7 455.3

Coal, Australia .. 6.5 181.4 187.0 250.4 260.4 318.0 434.3 528.2 450.5 468.6 507.4 608.6

Crude oil, average .. 14.0 189.1 227.7 251.9 260.4 310.3 337.6 428.5 360.8 385.3 434.4 465.9

Natural gas , Europe .. 12.1 164.0 219.5 221.7 216.1 242.9 281.5 321.4 286.1 315.9 320.9 327.3

Non-energy 100.00 .. 148.9 192.1 224.8 228.8 237.3 281.4 308.1 301.0 306.3 306.8 311.2

Agriculture 69.10 .. 133.5 150.4 180.5 183.3 200.9 236.6 259.9 251.8 254.7 257.3 267.7

Beverages 16.90 .. 137.2 145.4 169.9 173.3 179.4 210.7 221.2 222.8 213.7 216.7 233.1

Cocoa 3.90 1.9 169.8 175.7 215.5 220.7 220.5 273.5 305.2 301.0 287.9 296.3 331.3

Coffee, arabica 8.00 -4.2 131.9 131.4 141.9 141.2 154.2 171.1 164.2 172.1 161.6 163.0 167.8

Coffee, robusta 2.80 1.0 122.1 163.1 209.1 219.5 221.4 270.9 266.8 294.4 268.7 262.9 268.8

Food 29.40 .. 133.6 147.0 184.7 189.7 212.9 257.2 286.4 276.5 282.5 283.7 293.1

Fats and oils 10.10 .. 132.2 137.9 208.8 216.2 259.1 310.2 327.5 325.5 317.8 324.3 340.3

Palm oil 2.30 3.6 136.0 154.2 251.5 265.1 299.0 372.6 385.4 402.6 378.4 389.2 388.6

Soybean meal 4.10 1.1 113.3 110.6 162.2 163.6 212.6 234.4 256.1 234.2 248.5 247.9 272.0

Soybeans 2.00 2.7 129.7 126.8 181.3 186.7 228.8 265.6 276.7 271.4 263.4 271.4 295.2

Grains 6.90 .. 126.5 149.8 189.0 188.3 215.6 274.6 336.2 305.0 340.6 331.1 336.8

Maize 1.70 3.4 111.5 137.6 184.9 172.2 194.2 248.9 292.5 264.7 278.4 275.0 324.3

Rice, Thailand, 5% 2.90 0.7 141.4 150.6 161.3 161.6 169.9 236.2 425.6 293.5 448.1 445.6 383.1

Wheat, US, HRW 1.90 4.8 133.5 168.3 223.7 240.9 299.6 360.9 303.7 385.4 317.5 288.2 305.5

Other food 12.40 .. 141.8 156.4 149.0 156.1 149.7 171.9 187.4 186.2 183.3 187.4 191.5

Bananas, US 2.30 2.7 142.2 159.7 159.4 164.8 153.9 197.2 216.9 242.1 228.1 217.7 204.7

Sugar, world 7.50 -2.3 96.4 126.1 98.0 97.3 100.6 118.0 115.5 121.1 117.5 114.2 114.9

Raw materials 22.80 .. 131.5 161.4 175.8 172.8 182.8 199.6 215.2 206.5 208.1 213.9 223.6

Cotton ("A" Index) 5.90 -2.2 93.5 97.3 107.1 114.3 117.5 129.0 127.8 135.8 127.7 125.5 130.4

Rubber, Singapore 4.80 8.5 225.1 315.9 343.3 320.5 367.4 412.9 461.5 421.0 427.6 459.5 497.6

Sawnwood, Malaysia 2.90 2.0 110.9 126.0 135.6 138.0 134.9 144.7 158.4 153.4 158.2 157.0 160.1

Fertilizers 2.70 .. 163.4 168.6 240.1 240.2 292.0 409.4 624.1 489.9 574.7 646.5 651.0

Triple superphosphate 0.90 7.0 146.3 146.4 246.2 272.3 308.3 519.0 752.6 635.9 747.2 753.0 757.5

Metals and minerals 28.20 .. 178.7 280.3 314.0 320.8 305.7 358.7 371.1 380.5 381.7 369.8 361.9

Aluminum 7.90 5.1 122.5 165.9 170.3 164.4 157.7 177.0 189.8 194.0 191.0 187.4 190.9

Copper 9.30 12.1 202.9 370.7 392.5 425.2 396.3 429.9 465.6 465.4 478.9 462.2 455.5

Gold .. 7.7 159.4 216.6 249.7 244.1 282.4 332.1 321.1 347.1 326.0 318.5 318.8

Nickel 2.20 18.3 170.7 280.8 431.0 349.7 338.3 335.2 297.3 361.5 333.0 297.9 261.1

Memo:

Crude Oil (US$) .. 14.0 53.4 64.3 71.1 73.5 87.6 95.3 121.0 101.8 108.8 122.6 131.5

Table A.4 Commodity price indices(current US dollar index,index unless otherwise indicated; a/)

a/ The World Bank primary commodity price indices are computed from 1987-89 export values in US dollars for low- and middle-income economies, rebased to 1990.b/ Energy and gold prices are not included in the index.




Export valuesDeveloping countries 100.0 14.1 22.9 22.3 19.4 19.5 34.6 41.9 .. -4.3 9.0 3.2 ..

East Asia and Pacific 36.3 15.7 23.0 23.4 21.6 16.8 19.0 36.0 .. -4.2 10.0 6.9 ..

China 16.7 20.9 28.4 27.2 25.7 20.6 11.4 41.3 18.6 -6.3 11.0 8.6 -6.0

Indonesia 4.2 7.8 19.7 17.7 13.1 2.6 32.3 72.2 .. 6.4 -4.4 6.9 ..

Thailand 4.6 10.1 15.0 16.9 17.5 0.0 60.8 12.9 .. -2.2 11.7 -0.8 ..

Europe and Central Asia 20.7 16.2 21.9 22.9 23.7 23.5 62.3 65.7 .. -4.7 8.2 -2.6 ..

Russian Federation 7.1 15.1 33.1 24.5 16.8 21.3 118.9 55.8 .. 0.7 2.7 -0.8 ..

Turkey 1.8 15.1 16.3 16.4 25.3 9.8 40.3 136.8 .. -12.4 8.2 4.4 ..

Poland 2.1 18.4 19.3 24.3 25.6 20.8 43.8 61.5 .. -11.1 15.9 -3.1 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 24.0 9.5 19.6 19.5 12.4 14.4 30.7 16.8 .. -5.3 7.0 6.3 ..

Brazil 3.7 11.7 22.6 16.3 16.7 -2.6 40.0 2.7 116.8 -20.2 23.3 24.5 -5.4

Mexico 11.2 9.4 14.0 16.7 8.8 24.3 10.7 14.3 .. 8.0 -1.6 0.0 ..

Argentina 1.8 7.8 16.8 15.1 20.1 37.8 94.0 21.6 .. -16.1 11.5 -0.1 ..

Middle East and North Africa 8.3 14.9 31.8 27.8 9.8 38.7 52.6 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 5.2 12.3 39.4 20.6 2.5 10.5 52.7 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 1.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 0.3 15.1 34.6 32.5 18.2 12.0 99.1 146.6 .. 21.0 6.9 .. ..

South Asia 4.3 13.3 27.8 15.8 18.6 24.7 19.0 28.4 .. -6.2 11.5 -6.9 ..

India 2.8 15.7 31.5 17.0 22.3 33.2 13.0 26.5 .. -7.6 12.6 -8.1 ..

Pakistan 0.6 7.2 23.2 6.1 2.8 7.2 23.9 43.0 28.3 -0.8 2.7 3.1 3.3

Bangladesh 0.4 9.9 14.1 24.2 7.7 -14.0 135.7 44.5 .. 2.9 .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3 11.4 26.8 21.0 14.7 19.4 51.2 .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 2.0 8.5 12.7 12.0 20.1 -5.8 48.5 18.1 .. 6.9 11.5 -0.8 ..

Nigeria 1.4 13.5 30.7 23.9 9.1 61.5 77.6 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Export prices b,c

Developing countries 100.0 2.8 7.6 7.5 4.2 4.4 15.1 13.6 .. -0.1 .. .. ..

East Asia and Pacific 36.3 0.3 4.5 3.6 1.9 -0.2 7.3 4.5 .. 0.0 -0.7 .. ..

China 16.7 -0.9 2.8 2.8 1.5 1.5 4.2 -1.6 .. 0.6 0.0 .. ..

Indonesia 4.2 5.1 15.6 17.0 8.8 -1.1 28.7 26.2 .. 5.0 2.7 4.4 ..

Thailand 4.6 3.3 7.2 5.2 5.7 -0.3 13.3 15.4 .. 1.0 2.2 2.0 ..

Europe and Central Asia 20.7 4.7 8.8 9.8 9.7 12.4 14.1 10.9 .. 3.8 .. .. ..

Russian Federation 7.1 9.5 22.8 17.1 21.4 30.0 32.1 33.6 .. 4.0 .. .. ..

Turkey 1.8 1.8 5.7 3.5 12.4 10.9 30.1 25.3 .. 3.7 2.0 1.0 ..

Poland 2.1 -0.9 -12.8 6.4 0.2 1.4 -16.7 5.5 .. 1.9 .. .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean 24.0 4.3 11.3 12.0 7.8 12.2 19.9 19.8 .. 2.7 -1.3 2.2 ..

Brazil 3.7 2.3 12.1 12.5 10.5 19.1 24.8 26.2 .. 2.5 2.7 4.8 ..

Mexico 11.2 4.2 8.2 7.5 5.1 12.9 20.0 13.1 .. 3.0 2.2 3.5 ..

Argentina 1.8 1.8 1.7 8.6 11.4 14.0 46.2 56.8 .. 3.6 -23.4 0.2 ..

Middle East and North Africa 8.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 5.2 12.9 46.0 22.7 1.7 28.7 -26.5 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 1.9 7.1 29.8 -8.3 -15.2 -2.1 16.0 40.2 67.7 3.9 4.4 4.9 5.3

Egypt 0.3 0.1 1.2 -2.1 -0.3 3.8 7.3 11.4 16.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5

South Asia 4.3 1.7 1.5 10.4 7.3 12.8 7.3 11.9 .. 1.3 0.5 0.4 ..

India 2.8 2.4 11.0 3.2 9.1 12.8 13.0 12.6 11.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8

Pakistan 0.6 -0.5 0.4 2.5 3.3 0.6 25.6 -9.4 7.5 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.0

Bangladesh 0.4 -1.8 -38.2 68.0 -5.9 -4.5 -3.1 -1.3 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2

Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3 .. 14.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 2.0 5.0 6.6 8.1 9.1 8.2 29.6 13.9 .. 0.9 .. .. ..

Nigeria 1.4 .. 35.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.5 Developing countries' merchandise export growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise export (F.O.B), customs basis./b Implicit export unit values, U.S. Dollar basis./c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.




Import valuesDeveloping countries 100.0 .. .. .. .. 31.8 37.4 47.7 .. -6.9 8.6 1.2 ..

East Asia and Pacific 35.2 14.3 17.4 16.7 18.8 37.7 43.5 50.6 .. -9.1 4.2 6.8 ..

China 19.3 21.0 17.6 19.9 20.9 44.5 42.3 50.4 -0.3 -13.8 3.4 13.0 -7.1

Indonesia 2.1 6.0 24.0 5.8 21.8 27.8 58.2 80.7 .. -2.8 13.3 -0.8 ..

Thailand 4.2 8.3 25.7 9.0 8.7 25.7 41.9 63.5 .. -2.3 14.2 -19.3 ..

Europe and Central Asia 24.1 .. .. .. .. 29.5 36.6 52.2 .. -5.6 10.4 -3.6 ..

Russian Federation 3.9 12.0 28.8 31.0 36.0 37.3 47.7 5.3 .. -4.4 14.1 1.3 ..

Turkey 3.2 13.4 19.7 19.5 21.8 30.4 33.4 101.8 .. -12.6 12.0 -0.9 ..

Poland 3.6 14.5 13.5 25.5 28.7 17.8 48.9 79.1 .. -7.4 4.0 0.3 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 22.9 8.6 18.1 19.1 19.1 35.9 23.7 34.9 .. -8.3 12.7 -0.1 ..

Brazil 3.2 7.3 17.2 24.2 32.0 54.2 51.1 40.0 95.5 -20.8 24.9 8.4 7.3

Mexico 11.6 9.9 12.7 15.4 10.1 17.4 -0.7 28.3 .. 2.0 0.7 -1.9 ..

Argentina 0.6 3.9 27.8 19.0 30.9 98.9 19.3 49.5 .. -14.5 25.9 -1.5 ..

Middle East and North Africa 6.9 11.3 18.1 8.8 23.0 38.6 57.4 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 2.0 12.5 18.5 20.2 35.6 22.8 22.1 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 1.4 13.4 13.3 7.5 18.8 39.3 46.1 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 0.8 7.5 54.4 3.9 31.4 -2.8 125.5 2.4 .. -12.0 60.3 .. ..

South Asia 5.5 15.7 37.2 20.8 23.0 4.1 37.4 59.6 .. 1.1 12.8 -1.9 ..

India 3.7 18.5 42.0 21.9 26.9 -2.5 37.2 46.9 .. 2.0 12.9 -0.6 ..

Pakistan 0.7 10.9 41.3 17.6 9.3 34.9 44.1 139.6 4.1 -4.3 12.0 -9.5 -1.7

Bangladesh 0.5 9.8 12.0 15.5 15.4 27.1 21.6 87.6 .. 4.9 .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 5.5 12.3 20.8 21.9 22.3 27.4 28.9 .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 1.9 11.0 15.6 23.3 18.1 14.0 38.2 13.4 .. 5.7 8.3 -9.5 ..

Nigeria 0.5 18.4 19.7 19.9 29.0 30.2 42.8 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Import prices b,c

Developing countries 100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

East Asia and Pacific 35.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China 19.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Indonesia 2.1 8.9 5.1 17.1 14.9 -2.1 44.9 25.4 .. 5.7 4.1 4.8 ..

Thailand 4.2 1.8 6.3 6.5 5.4 11.7 18.6 18.3 .. 1.5 1.9 1.5 ..

Europe and Central Asia 24.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Russian Federation 3.9 -0.2 6.9 4.6 7.4 10.2 11.6 13.1 14.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2

Turkey 3.2 3.1 6.9 10.1 7.9 11.7 33.9 28.0 .. 3.5 4.2 1.1 ..

Poland 3.6 -1.2 -8.6 6.9 -2.0 -4.6 2.5 0.3 .. 4.2 .. .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean 22.9 2.2 6.7 5.4 6.2 7.4 8.6 13.0 .. 1.5 0.4 1.0 ..

Brazil 3.2 3.0 11.2 6.9 8.2 14.4 14.7 26.0 .. 3.4 4.5 -0.4 ..

Mexico 11.6 2.4 5.1 4.5 5.4 2.6 7.2 12.1 .. 1.2 0.7 1.6 ..

Argentina 0.6 0.3 4.1 2.3 7.2 27.6 -10.4 14.1 .. 1.5 -8.4 1.1 ..

Middle East and North Africa 6.9 .. 4.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 2.0 2.2 3.4 3.1 7.4 7.9 19.1 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 1.4 .. 3.3 3.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 0.8 -0.3 0.6 -4.2 -0.5 6.6 12.5 19.4 26.8 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3

South Asia 5.5 .. 10.5 3.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

India 3.7 .. 21.2 -8.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Pakistan 0.7 5.6 12.9 10.1 10.3 10.4 8.7 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Bangladesh 0.5 0.2 -36.4 93.1 -2.7 -0.2 1.9 4.4 7.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7

Sub-Saharan Africa 5.5 .. 6.7 3.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 1.9 4.2 5.9 3.5 5.8 15.9 30.6 -6.3 .. -0.9 .. .. ..

Nigeria 0.5 .. 6.6 2.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.6 Developing countries' merchandise import growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise import (C.I.F.), customs basis./b Implicit import unit values, U.S. Dollar basis./c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.


US$ bn. % GDP 2007 2008 2008 2008

2007 2007 2005 2006 2007 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Mar Apr May Jun

World -426.8 -0.8 -241 -206 -205 -238 -314 -318 .. -368 -135 .. ..

High-income countries a -390.0 -1.0 -382 -449 -409 -412 -478 -459 .. -470 -279 .. ..

Industrial countries -489.8 -1.3 -536 -638 -557 -553 -630 -627 .. -607 -471 .. ..

United States -738.6 -5.4 -767 -817 -794 -779 -812 -819 .. -796 -847 -854 ..

Japan 209.5 4.8 77 66 93 102 82 82 .. 86 75 74 ..

Euro Area 27.4 0.2 22 -14 42 38 15 -1 .. -20 41 .. ..

United Kindgom -88.4 -3.2 -125 -143 -179 -191 -198 -180 .. -172 -179 -177 ..

Other high income 99.8 6.7 155 189 148 141 152 160 .. 118 174 171 ..

Hong Kong (China) 27.4 13.4 -10 -18 -23 -24 -30 -22 .. -31 -14 -40 ..

Singapore 41.4 26.1 29 33 36 41 25 27 .. 17 19 21 ..

Taiwan (China) 28.3 7.5 15 20 27 24 33 14 26 5 15 33 29

Developing countries 57.5 0.4 145 251 216 185 177 144 .. 110 138 243 ..

East Asia and Pacific 400.0 9.6 139 240 331 337 278 255 .. 220 339 365 ..

China 339.4 11.0 101 174 263 276 220 222 284 197 301 277 274

Indonesia 11.0 2.7 28 40 40 38 37 41 .. 47 28 38 ..

Thailand 14.9 6.2 -7 1 12 7 12 -3 .. -5 -9 26 ..

Malaysia 28.9 16.6 26 30 29 30 31 37 .. 25 50 60 ..

Europe and Central Asia .. .. 14 -5 -46 -69 -23 4 .. 3 -27 -12 ..

Russian Federation 78.3 5.7 120 143 134 120 172 218 .. 213 189 181 ..

Turkey -35.8 -7.1 -43 -54 -63 -66 -70 -78 .. -67 -80 -72 ..

Poland -15.8 -3.8 -12 -17 -24 -23 -27 -36 .. -39 -21 -28 ..

Czech Republic -5.9 -3.5 1 2 5 6 7 7 .. 10 -1 7 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 19.5 0.6 24 30 -6 -23 -14 -43 .. -36 -84 -32 ..

Brazil 1.5 0.1 45 46 40 34 34 23 32 18 20 51 26

Mexico -8.6 -1.0 -8 -6 -10 -11 -3 -12 .. -3 -11 -4 ..

Argentina 7.2 2.8 12 12 11 8 16 14 .. 11 5 6 ..

Colombia -5.9 -3.0 0 -2 -3 -4 0 0 .. 3 -2 .. ..

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 10 46 26 29 30 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 98.4 26.5 100 121 102 101 118 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 0.0 0.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 3.1 2.5 -9 -7 -11 -10 -13 -8 .. -4 -20 .. ..

Algeria 0.0 0.0 20 29 24 24 23 .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia .. -56 -73 -97 -93 -107 -133 .. -134 -153 -162 ..

India .. .. -39 -52 -71 -65 -78 -92 .. -95 -108 -121 ..

Pakistan -8.3 -5.9 -9 -13 -15 -16 -18 -25 -24 -24 -28 -23 -21

Bangladesh .. .. -3 -3 -4 -6 -4 -5 .. -6 .. .. ..

Sri Lanka .. .. -2 -3 -4 -4 -5 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa -22.3 -2.7 19 22 12 9 21 .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa -20.6 -7.3 -3 -10 -10 -12 -11 -11 .. -14 -13 -4 ..

Nigeria 19.7 13.4 19 25 21 22 28 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Memo:

OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing excl. China .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing oil exporters 149.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.7 Merchandise trade balances(Billion US dollars; annual rates)

a/ Seasonally adjusted

CAB


Weights Average

Levelb2007 2008 2008 2008 Latest


World 100.0 95.3 1.1 0.8 5.8 5.6 8.6 10.1 10.1 0.5 -0.8 -0.3 0.9

High-income countries 77.9 .. 0.8 0.5 6.1 5.6 9.2 11.0 11.2 0.4 -1.0 -0.4 1.0

Industrial countries 70.1 .. 0.8 0.6 7.0 6.4 10.4 12.2 12.2 0.4 -1.1 -0.5 1.1

United States (SDR/USD) 15.6 0.7 -0.3 -0.4 3.9 3.3 5.6 6.2 7.3 2.2 -0.8 -0.3 0.7

Japan 7.3 116.8 -1.8 -5.2 -1.2 -1.3 4.1 13.5 15.5 -1.7 -1.5 -2.6 0.4

Euro Area 29.3 .. 0.0 1.0 9.1 7.9 12.3 14.3 15.8 1.5 -1.3 0.0 1.5

United Kindgom 5.5 0.6 -0.7 1.2 8.7 7.8 6.8 1.2 -0.8 -1.1 -0.8 0.0 1.0

Other high income 7.8 101.6 1.1 -0.1 0.4 0.3 1.4 2.9 4.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2

Hong Kong (China) 3.8 7.8 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1

Singapore 2.3 1.7 1.6 4.7 5.4 4.1 7.2 8.7 11.6 1.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.6

Taiwan (China) 2.1 33.1 3.9 -1.1 -0.9 -0.4 1.3 4.4 8.8 0.8 -0.8 0.8 -0.1

Developing countries 22.1 110.7 2.0 1.7 4.9 5.5 7.2 7.8 7.0 0.7 -0.4 0.0 0.5

East Asia and Pacific 7.4 101.8 -0.8 4.2 5.6 5.7 6.1 7.7 6.5 0.3 -0.9 -0.8 0.0

China 2.7 8.2 1.0 2.8 4.8 5.4 5.8 8.4 10.3 1.1 0.4 1.1 0.7

Indonesia 1.1 9138.4 -7.9 6.0 0.2 -1.3 -1.3 -1.6 -3.2 -0.2 -0.9 0.1 1.1

Thailand 1.3 40.1 0.0 6.2 9.7 10.7 7.8 9.8 7.3 -0.4 -1.7 -3.3 -1.0

Malaysia 1.4 3.8 0.3 3.2 6.7 5.9 8.0 8.5 6.7 0.8 -1.7 -1.3 0.1

Europe and Central Asia 4.9 98.7 4.1 1.6 8.4 8.8 12.0 12.3 13.0 1.0 0.1 1.2 2.1

Russian Federation 1.5 26.4 1.9 4.0 6.3 5.1 7.9 8.4 9.5 1.1 -0.9 0.3 1.1

Turkey 0.6 1.1 6.1 -5.9 9.6 16.6 22.4 17.1 6.0 -4.6 4.2 1.0 0.5

Poland 0.5 3.7 13.0 4.3 12.1 12.5 18.2 24.2 29.4 4.4 -0.2 0.9 3.9

Czech Republic 0.5 29.7 7.3 6.0 11.3 9.5 17.6 25.5 32.0 2.1 -1.3 3.2 4.6

Latin America and Caribbean 5.4 129.5 5.6 1.5 3.1 3.7 5.3 6.9 7.2 1.1 0.3 0.9 0.0

Brazil 1.1 2.3 20.2 11.9 11.7 13.3 20.5 21.4 19.7 1.1 1.7 2.5 1.0

Mexico 1.7 10.2 3.6 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.3 1.9 0.7 1.2 0.0

Argentina 0.4 2.2 0.7 -4.9 -1.3 -1.6 -2.2 -1.8 -1.4 -0.3 0.5 2.9 0.7

Colombia 0.3 2234.1 13.3 -1.7 13.6 19.0 14.1 16.2 14.2 2.7 1.0 2.8 -2.2

Middle East and North Africa 1.7 146.8 -0.3 -0.4 1.9 1.9 3.0 3.8 5.2 0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.8

Saudi Arabia 0.8 3.7 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Iran 0.3 5815.4 -3.9 -2.3 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 0.2 1.0 0.2 -1.9 -0.8 0.8

Egypt 0.3 4.8 7.2 0.8 1.7 1.6 3.5 3.6 5.8 0.9 1.2 0.2 0.3

Algeria 0.3 72.2 -1.7 0.9 4.8 6.3 6.7 7.3 10.3 1.2 2.3 0.4 2.1

South Asia 1.2 103.0 0.7 -2.8 5.4 8.5 8.6 7.0 -2.0 -0.1 -4.3 -1.0 -1.2

India 0.8 44.8 2.8 -2.7 9.6 14.4 14.0 10.9 -1.0 0.8 -5.0 -1.7 -0.7

Pakistan 0.2 56.6 -2.1 -1.3 -0.8 -0.2 -0.4 -0.8 -8.5 -3.8 -5.9 0.6 -4.4

Bangladesh 0.1 58.2 -7.5 -6.7 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.6 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0

Sri Lanka 0.1 91.0 0.7 -3.3 -6.1 -8.0 -3.4 0.8 2.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.5 105.9 -0.3 -3.2 0.3 2.6 7.9 2.9 -0.2 1.4 0.6 -2.2 1.1

South Africa 0.5 7.2 1.6 -6.1 -3.9 0.8 8.4 -4.2 -8.9 2.4 2.2 -4.0 2.7

Nigeria 0.3 109.6 1.2 2.0 2.3 1.4 6.1 8.6 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Memo:

OECD 73.8 .. 1.1 0.6 6.9 6.4 10.3 12.2 12.2 0.5 -1.0 -0.4 1.2

Developing excl. China 19.3 112.6 2.1 1.5 4.9 5.5 7.4 7.7 6.5 0.7 -0.5 -0.1 0.5

Developing oil exporters 2.7 147.7 -5.8 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.8

Developing non-oil exporters 19.3 106.2 3.2 1.7 5.5 6.3 8.1 8.8 7.9 0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.5

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.8 Exchange Rates (USD/LCU)(annual percent change except monthly data which is change over previous month a/)

a/ An increase in the USD per LCU implies appreciation of the local currency. The aggregates computed by using trade weights and rebased to year 2000=100 (bilateral total trade i.e. imports plus exports in 1995 constant USD).Aggregates are reported when at least 60% (by weight) of countries reported data in that time period.b/ Average levels are LCU vis-a-vis the USD




World 3.4 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.5 3.7 4.1 .. 4.3 4.1 4.5 ..

High-income countries 2.5 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.7 2.8 3.2 .. 3.2 3.1 3.4 ..

Industrial countries 2.5 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.0 1.7 2.8 3.1 .. 3.2 3.0 3.4 ..

United States 3.2 2.9 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.3 4.0 4.1 .. 4.0 3.9 4.2 ..

Japan 0.7 0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.5 1.0 .. 1.2 0.8 1.3 ..

Euro Area 3.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.9 2.9 3.3 .. 3.6 3.3 3.7 ..

United Kindgom 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.3 1.8 2.1 2.4 .. 2.4 3.0 3.3 ..

Other high income 3.7 2.4 1.5 1.6 2.4 2.4 4.5 5.1 .. 5.4 6.0 .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 5.6 2.0 0.9 2.0 2.0 1.6 3.5 4.6 .. 4.1 5.4 5.6 ..

Singapore 7.2 2.1 0.5 1.0 2.1 2.7 4.1 6.6 .. 6.7 7.5 7.5 ..

Taiwan (China) 3.1 1.8 2.3 0.6 1.8 1.5 4.5 3.6 4.2 3.9 3.9 3.7 5.0

Developing countries 7.2 6.1 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.2 7.2 8.0 .. 8.6 8.6 9.1 ..

East Asia and Pacific 6.3 5.3 7.2 5.1 5.3 6.1 6.0 6.5 .. 6.6 7.4 7.7 ..

China 10.7 4.8 1.8 1.5 4.8 6.1 6.6 8.0 .. 8.3 8.5 7.7 ..

Indonesia 10.0 6.2 10.5 13.1 6.2 6.5 6.2 7.6 10.1 8.2 9.0 10.4 11.0

Thailand 4.2 2.2 4.5 4.6 2.2 1.6 2.9 5.0 7.5 5.3 6.2 7.6 8.9

Malaysia 3.2 2.0 3.0 3.6 2.0 1.8 2.2 2.6 .. 2.8 3.0 3.8 ..

Europe and Central Asia 8.3 8.0 4.4 5.6 8.0 7.1 8.2 10.6 .. 10.9 11.1 11.3 ..

Russian Federation 14.5 9.0 12.7 9.7 9.0 8.9 11.4 12.9 .. 13.3 14.3 15.1 ..

Turkey 8.8 8.8 8.2 9.6 8.8 7.1 8.2 8.8 10.3 9.2 9.7 10.7 10.6

Poland 3.9 2.4 2.1 1.1 2.4 2.0 3.3 4.3 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.7

Czech Republic 7.2 2.9 1.8 2.5 2.9 2.6 4.9 7.4 6.7 7.1 6.7 6.8 6.7

Latin America and Caribbean 7.3 6.5 5.4 5.6 6.5 6.0 8.1 8.5 6.4 8.9 8.5 6.4 7.2

Brazil 5.0 3.6 6.9 4.2 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.6 5.6 4.7 5.0 5.6 6.1

Mexico 5.8 4.0 4.0 3.6 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.9 4.9 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.3

Argentina 9.2 8.8 9.6 10.9 8.8 8.6 8.5 8.5 9.1 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.3

Colombia 5.6 5.5 5.0 4.3 5.5 5.3 5.4 6.1 6.4 5.9 5.7 6.4 7.2

Middle East and North Africa .. 5.4 2.8 5.4 5.4 4.9 5.2 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 11.6 4.2 0.5 2.2 4.2 4.6 5.9 8.4 .. 9.6 10.5 .. ..

Iran .. 17.2 13.4 11.9 17.2 17.4 18.9 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 17.4 9.5 4.8 7.6 9.5 8.4 7.1 12.3 18.8 14.4 16.4 19.7 20.2

Algeria 7.6 0.1 1.6 2.5 3.5 5.2 4.1 4.8 .. 5.6 .. .. ..

South Asia 8.8 7.6 7.0 7.6 7.6 7.1 8.9 9.4 .. 11.0 17.2 19.3 ..

India 7.5 6.4 4.2 6.2 6.4 6.7 5.5 6.3 .. 7.9 7.8 7.8 ..

Pakistan 15.5 7.6 9.1 7.9 7.6 7.1 8.9 12.4 19.3 14.1 17.2 19.3 21.5

Bangladesh .. 9.1 7.0 6.8 9.1 9.9 10.9 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka 26.9 15.8 11.0 10.0 15.8 16.0 18.8 22.1 26.5 23.8 25.0 26.2 28.2

Sub-Saharan Africa 7.0 6.0 7.5 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.8 8.0 .. 8.3 .. .. ..

South Africa 10.3 7.1 3.4 4.6 7.1 7.0 8.4 9.9 .. 10.6 11.1 11.7 ..

Nigeria 7.2 5.4 17.9 8.2 5.4 4.4 5.4 8.1 .. 7.8 .. .. ..

Memo:

OECD 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.2 1.8 2.9 3.2 .. 3.3 3.1 3.5 ..


Developing oil exporters 7.4 6.0 11.9 10.1 6.0 6.5 6.9 7.9 .. 8.0 .. .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters 7.1 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 7.2 8.0 .. 8.7 8.6 9.0 ..


Table A.9 Global Inflation(annual percent change; seasonally adjusted a/)

a/ Developing country aggregates computed using median. Industrial aggregates use 1995 USD GDP weights. World total is GDP weighted average of developing and high income total. Aggregates are reported when at least 60% (by GDP) of countries reported data in that time period.

For developing countries, aggregate decadal growth rates are median of the decadal growth rates of the components. For high-income countries, aggregate decadal growth rate is GDP weighted sum of decadal growth rates of components.


Weights 2007 2008 2008 2008 Latest1995 2005 2006 2007 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Apr May Jun 16-Jul

World 100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

High-income countriesb 82.8 2.49 3.57 3.86 3.94 3.62 2.87 2.26 2.37 2.20 2.20 2.19

Industrial countries 80.6 2.49 3.58 3.87 3.95 3.64 2.88 2.25 2.36 2.19 2.20 2.20

United States (US Federal funds rate) 25.5 3.21 4.96 5.02 5.09 4.48 3.16 2.09 2.27 1.99 2.00 2.06

Japan (Discount Rate) 18.4 0.10 0.24 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75

Euro Area (Eurosys main refi rate-minimum bid) 24.5 2.02 2.76 3.84 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.25

United Kindgom (Clearing bank's base rate) 3.9 4.65 4.64 5.51 5.74 5.68 5.35 5.03 5.08 5.00 5.00 5.00

Other high income 2.2 2.47 3.31 3.43 3.46 3.27 2.64 2.40 2.45 2.38 2.36 ..

Hong Kong (Discount rate) 0.5 4.73 6.50 6.52 6.58 6.00 4.25 3.58 3.75 3.50 3.50 ..

Singapore (MAS Interbank 1 month rate) 0.3 2.14 3.40 2.68 2.55 2.33 1.47 1.09 1.10 1.15 1.00 0.94

Taiwan (Interbank swap overnight rate) 0.9 1.30 1.56 1.96 2.01 2.04 2.08 2.10 2.11 2.10 2.11 2.17

Developing countries 17.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

East Asia and Pacific 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China (Lending rate, 6m to 1y) 2.4 5.58 5.86 6.71 6.90 7.31 7.47 7.47 7.47 7.47 7.47 7.47

Indonesia (SBI 90 day rate) 0.7 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18

Thailand (14day Repo Rate - BOT) 0.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Malaysia (Interbank overnight rate) 0.3 2.74 3.39 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50

Europe and Central Asia 3.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Russian Federation (Discount (Refin.)) 1.2 12.98 11.64 10.27 10.00 10.00 10.16 10.48 10.26 10.50 10.68 11.00

Turkey (Interbank 1 week average) 0.6 16.31 16.76 18.29 18.48 17.39 16.32 16.60 16.20 16.51 17.09 17.66

Poland (Interbank 2 week) 0.4 5.30 4.09 4.48 4.67 4.95 5.40 5.95 5.91 5.94 5.98 6.08

Czech Republic (Repo rate 2 weeks) 0.2 1.96 2.17 2.86 3.01 3.34 3.65 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75

Latin America and Caribbean 5.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Brazil (SELIC Target rate) 2.4 19.13 15.33 12.05 11.53 11.25 11.25 11.81 11.50 11.75 12.18 12.25

Mexico (CETES 91 day closing) 1.0 9.32 7.30 7.36 7.36 7.55 7.52 7.64 7.54 7.59 7.79 8.22

Argentina (30 Day deposit) 0.9 3.66 6.45 8.09 8.39 9.75 8.41 10.42 8.08 10.01 13.15 14.06

Colombia (Fixed Term Deposit) 0.3 7.08 6.27 7.94 8.52 8.70 9.24 9.67 9.74 9.59 9.69 9.65

Middle East and North Africa 1.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia (IMF discount rate) 0.4 3.75 5.02 4.79 4.90 4.36 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran (IMF discount rate) 0.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt (IMF discount rate) 0.2 10.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 .. 9.00 .. .. ..

Algeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 1.6 .. .. ..

India (Bank deposit 365+ days) 1.2 5.75 5.97 7.04 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50

Pakistan (Repo 7-15 day) 0.2 6.82 8.58 9.09 9.08 9.52 9.53 10.16 9.56 9.92 10.99 10.33

Bangladesh (Bank Rate) 0.1 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka (Central bank repurchase) 0.0 8.09 9.14 10.43 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.0 .. .. ..

South Africa (Repo rate) 0.5 7.14 7.63 9.61 9.75 10.57 11.00 11.53 11.32 11.50 11.79 12.00

Nigeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 13.17 13.25 9.13 8.00 9.17 9.50 .. 10.00 .. .. ..

Memo:

OECD 83.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing excl. China 14.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing oil exporters 2.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters 15.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.10 Global Central Bank Interest Rates(percentage a/)

a/ Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures; except for the latest month, the figure reported for the latest month is the value on the date the data has been reported (which is the last daily observation one day before the note becomes available).b/ High-income aggregates use 1995 USD GDP weights.


Weights Average 2007 2008 2008 Latest


World .. 89 91 106 124 130 127 115 112 121 122 112 106

High-income countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

United States .. 88 90 100 112 115 111 100 98 105 107 98 94

Japan .. 84 84 107 109 106 96 79 86 89 92 86 82

Euro Area .. 96 99 121 148 152 153 137 129 142 142 129 120

United Kindgom .. 88 85 98 106 107 106 94 92 100 99 92 84

Other high incomea .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) .. .. 110 127 152 162 167 142 136 152 150 136 128

Singapore .. 102 104 121 171 185 176 171 .. .. .. .. ..

Taiwan (China) .. 74 71 80 94 102 93 100 88 104 101 88 80

Developing countriesa,b .. 136 153 203 275 307 323 282 268 301 300 268 254

East Asia and Pacificc .. 112 111 146 219 255 261 216 187 231 220 187 179

China .. 104 76 109 240 308 316 238 202 261 243 202 202

Indonesia .. 168 188 268 397 423 500 462 442 432 457 442 415

Thailand .. 166 206 231 282 307 316 325 284 328 320 284 253

Malaysia .. 108 107 120 183 187 206 182 168 190 184 168 161

Europe and Central Asia .. .. 237 398 495 519 583 508 535 520 578 535 505

Russian Federation .. 412 457 878 1046 1074 1256 1116 1218 1139 1310 1218 1129

Turkey .. 82 96 119 166 191 206 130 126 150 145 126 126

Poland .. 146 166 228 319 329 328 313 278 306 309 278 268

Czech Republic .. 267 361 484 674 734 835 853 928 825 899 928 943

Latin America and Caribbean .. 163 181 263 394 436 458 447 487 486 528 487 450

Brazil .. 153 165 254 398 460 506 474 558 544 604 558 511

Mexico .. 163 182 260 360 370 361 376 360 369 393 360 334

Argentina .. 95 105 150 190 198 185 189 234 192 216 234 206

Colombia .. 282 395 589 685 689 736 685 686 778 807 686 704

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 253 332 366 377 429 387 402 408 423 402 382

Saudi Arabia .. .. 503 527 339 327 461 389 385 435 392 385 360

Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt .. 165 248 328 412 438 532 573 512 599 562 512 497

Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

India .. 164 181 266 411 458 576 413 327 457 413 327 308

Pakistan .. 211 272 370 452 469 487 528 375 511 379 375 317

Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka .. 206 280 312 358 327 342 330 314 333 323 314 310

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa .. 188 234 307 378 385 392 326 330 362 367 330 310

Nigeria .. 313 317 450 807 842 1030 1096 947 1029 1024 947 932

Memo:

OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..


Developing oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..


Table A.11 Stock Markets(indices, year 2000=100)

a/ Average for Developing countries and Other High Income countries is for the period 1995-2002Note: Quarterly and Monthly data is constructed from daily data by taking the last observation for the month. Annual data is the average over 12 months.b/ Aggregates defined by IFC/S&Pc/ East Asia Pacific including South AsiaSource: World - Morgan Stanley Capital International Index; USA - Wilshire 5000; Japan - Topix; Euro Area - S&P EUROPE 350; UK - Standard and Poor's 350; Hong Kong - Hang Seng Composite; Singapore - Singapore Stock Excahnge Composite Index;All Others are IFC/S&P Indices


GDP Gross domestic Product Current Account Balance

2007 2008 2009 2008 2009

Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD

World 3.6 2.8 2.5 1.7 2.9 2.6 1.6 64 -516 .. 37 .. ..

High-income countries 2.5 1.7 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.4 -395 -517 .. -315 .. ..

Industrial countries 2.4 1.7 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.4 -483 -517 .. -409 .. ..

United States 2.2 1.5 0.8 1.2 1.7 1.1 1.1 -726 -701 -717 -672 -671 -648

Japan 1.8 1.3 1.0 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.5 205 175 217 221 177 224

Euro Area 2.5 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.4 -17 -15 8 -12 .. 5

United Kindgom 3.1 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.4 -109 -114 -92 -99 -108 -90

Other high income 5.8 4.5 4.4 .. 4.7 4.5 .. 88 .. .. 94 .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 6.0 4.9 4.8 .. 4.9 4.9 .. 22 .. .. 23 .. ..

Singapore 8.0 5.1 4.5 .. 5.5 5.0 .. 39 .. .. 43 .. ..

Taiwan (China) 5.3 4.4 4.3 .. 4.8 4.4 .. 27 .. .. 27 .. ..

Developing countries 7.5 6.8 6.6 .. 6.4 6.1 .. 459.0 0.5 .. 351.4 0.0 ..

East Asia and Pacific 10.2 9.1 8.9 .. 8.6 8.2 .. 395.7 0.4 .. 400.9 0.0 ..

China 11.4 10.1 9.8 .. 9.4 9.0 .. 348.0 0.4 390.2 354.5 0.4 435.8

Indonesia 6.2 5.9 5.9 .. 5.9 5.7 .. 9.6 .. .. 9.8 .. ..

Thailand 4.4 4.9 4.8 .. 5.0 4.5 .. 4.9 .. .. 2.2 .. ..

Malaysia 6.0 5.5 5.8 .. 5.5 5.7 .. 28.7 .. .. 29.7 .. ..

Europe and Central Asia 6.2 5.7 5.8 .. 5.6 5.3 .. -60.3 -0.1 .. -117.4 0.0 ..

Russian Federation 7.5 7.5 7.5 .. 6.9 6.8 .. 90.5 0.1 .. 47.0 0.1 ..

Turkey 4.5 4.0 4.5 3.7 4.8 4.3 4.5 -47.9 .. -42.5 -50.3 .. -46.1

Poland 6.5 5.4 5.4 5.9 4.9 4.3 5.0 -24.6 .. -26.3 -27.4 .. -37.6

Czech Republic 6.0 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.9 5.4 4.8 -6.4 .. -6.4 -6.5 .. -4.8.. ..

Latin America and Caribbean 5.4 4.6 4.3 .. 4.0 3.5 .. -9.1 .. .. -40.5 .. ..

Brazil 5.2 4.8 4.6 .. 4.1 3.6 .. -23.4 .. .. -33.3 .. ..

Mexico 3.1 2.6 2.3 2.8 3.0 2.5 3.3 -11.1 .. -10.3 -16.0 .. -21.4

Argentina 8.3 6.8 6.0 .. 4.6 4.0 .. 6.2 .. .. 3.2 .. ..

Colombia 6.6 5.4 4.8 .. 5.0 4.3 .. -7.1 .. .. -7.8 .. ..

Middle East and North Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 4.9 5.8 7.2 .. 4.8 6.7 .. 167.9 0.2 .. 141.6 0.1 ..

Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 7.3 6.9 6.9 .. 6.0 6.7 .. -0.4 .. .. -1.5 .. ..

Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 8.1 7.3 7.1 .. 7.7 6.7 .. -38.4 -0.1 .. -36.9 .. ..

India 8.6 7.6 7.7 .. 8.1 7.1 .. -27.6 .. .. -26.0 .. ..

Pakistan 6.2 5.7 3.6 .. 6.0 4.4 .. -10.8 .. .. -10.9 .. ..

Bangladesh 6.2 5.9 6.2 .. 6.2 6.0 .. .. 0.1 .. .. -0.1 ..

Sri Lanka 6.8 .. 4.0 .. .. 4.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 4.8 3.6 3.9 .. 4.3 4.4 .. -21.7 .. .. -21.8 .. ..

Nigeria 5.6 7.0 6.8 .. 6.8 6.6 .. 25.3 .. .. 27.0 .. ..

Memo:

OECD 2.5 1.7 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.6 -583 -517 .. -520 .. ..

Developing excl. China 6.1 5.4 5.4 .. 5.2 4.9 .. 111.0 0.1 .. -3.0 .. ..

Developing oil exporters 6.2 5.8 6.3 .. 5.1 5.8 .. 229.2 0.2 .. 196.2 .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters 7.7 6.9 6.7 .. 6.6 6.1 .. 229.8 0.3 .. 155.2 .. ..


Table A.12 GDP and current account forecasts(annual percent change; billions of US dollars)

Sources: Consensus Economics Ltd.; The Economist Intelligence Unit and OECD.Regional Aggregates:Latin America and Carribean: ARG,BOL,BRA,CHL,COL,CRI,DOM,ECU,MEX,PAN,PER,PRY,URY,VENEurope and Central Asia: BGR,CZE,EST,HRV,HUN,KAZ,POL,ROM,RUS,SVK,TUR,UKREast Asia and Pacific: CHN, IDN,MYS,PHL,THAMiddle-East and North Africa: DZA,EGY,IRN,IRQ,JOR,LBN,MAR,OMN,SAU,SYR,TUN,YEMSouth Asia: BGD,IND,PAKSub-Saharan Africa: AGO,BWA,CIV,CMR,GAB,GHA,KEN,MUS,MWI,NAM,NGA,SDN,TZA,UGA,ZAF,ZMB,ZWEOther Aggregates:OECD:AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,CZE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,HUN,IRL,ISL,ITA,JPN,KOR,MEX,NLD,NOR,POL,PRT,SVK,SWE,TUR,USAIndustrial Countries: AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,ITA,JPN,KOR,NLD,NOR,PRT,SWE,USAOther High Income: HKG,ISR,SGP,SVNDeveloping Oil Exporters: IDN,NGA,SAU,VEN

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