The expansion of oil palm and other crops in East Kalimantan from 1990 to 2030

Carina van der Laan, PhD Researcher Copernicus of Sustainable Development,

Utrecht University

Co-promotors: dr. Pita Verweij, dr. Stefan Dekker

LANDac Symposium Utrecht, July 2015

1

Content Agricultural development in 1990-2010

Projections land change 2010-2030, based on PLUC

model

2

Forest loss in Kalimantan in 1950-2005 and projected till 2020

(Source: WWF) 3

‘Contributors’ to forest loss

4

Oil palm

Mining

Logging

Pulp and paper

Rubber

Smallholders

Large-scale industries

Fire

(Gaveau et al., 2013, 2014; Abood et al., 2014, etc.)

West Kutai and Mahakam Ulu districts

1990 2000 2010 ~3.3 million hectares, divided in two districts in 2014 (source: Budiman et al., 2011)

5

6

Forest cover loss in West Kutai and Mahakam Ulu districts

Van der Laan et al., submitted

-8%

Land changes 1990-2000

7

Van der Laan et al., submitted

Land changes 2000-2010

8

Van der Laan et al., submitted

Land change processes

9

1990-2000 2000-2010 Van der Laan et al., submitted

PLUC modelling framework

10 Adapted from Verstegen et al., 2012

- Resolution: 250m - Period:2010-2030 - Time step: 1 year

- Land demand: 6

agricultural types

Spatial allocation: - Biophysical factors - Infrastructure - Land cover/use - Land zoning

1

2

3

4

5

Land demands

Scenarios Land demand LULC types

1A 2A La

nd

zon

ing

1B 2B 11

Scenarios Land demand LULC types

1A 2A

Controlled slow expansion

Lan

d z

onin

g

S-shaped growth of demand

Strict land zoning

1B 2B 12

Scenarios Land demand LULC types

1A 2A

Controlled slow expansion

Lan

d z

onin

g

S-shaped growth of demand

Strict land zoning

Not controlled slow expansion

S-shaped growth of demand

Free land zoning

1B 2B 13

Scenarios Land demand LULC types

1A 2A

Controlled slow expansion Controlled high expansion

Lan

d z

onin

g

S-shaped growth of demand Exponential growth of demand

Strict land zoning Strict land zoning

Not controlled slow expansion

S-shaped growth of demand

Free land zoning

1B 2B 14

Scenarios Land demand LULC types

1A 2A

Controlled slow expansion Controlled high expansion

Lan

d z

onin

g

S-shaped growth of demand Exponential growth of demand

Strict land zoning Strict land zoning

Not controlled slow expansion

Not controlled high expansion

S-shaped growth of demand Exponential growth of demand

Free land zoning Free land zoning

1B 2B 15

16

0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

350.000

400.000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Land

dem

and

area

(ha)

Axis Title

Agricultural expansion 1990-2010 and projected for 2010-2030

Oil palm

Smallholder rubber

Mixed agriculture

Coal mining

Settlement

Forest plantation

Strict (S) and free (F) land zoning Land zones Non-forestry

zone (APL, KBNK)

Watershed protection forest (HL)

Production forest (HP)

Limited production

forest (HPT)

Conservation forest (KSPA)

Peat

Strict Free Strict Free Strict Free Strict Free Strict Free Strict Free Mixed agriculture yes

yes

no

no

no

yes

no

yes

no

no

no

yes

Smallholder rubber

yes no

Oil palm yes no no

Coal mining yes yes

Forest plantation no

Settlements yes no

Land cover in 2020 and 2030

18

19

0,0

0,4

0,8

1,2La

nd a

rea

(Mha

) 2020

1. Forest - Closed

2. Forest - Medium open

3. Forest - Very open

4. Shrubs

5. Grassland

6. Cleared

0,0

0,4

0,8

1,2

2010 S-strict S-free Exp-strict Exp-free

Land

are

a (M

ha) 2030

20

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6La

nd a

rea

(Mha

) 2020 11. Oil palm plantation

8. Smallholder Rubber

10. Forest plantation

7. Mixed agriculture

13. Coal mining

14. Settlement

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

2010 S-strict S-free Exp-strict Exp-free

Land

are

a (M

ha) 2030

Land changes 2010-2030

21

Main messages For analysis land use change processes, multiple data sources useful:

Expert knowledge: relates to short term processes Agricultural statistics: regional production volumes and areas Remote sensing data: spatial information

Land change is highly dynamic and changes over time:

deforestation, degradation and agricultural expansion for palm oil and rubber production dominant: now and in the future

Forest landscapes are being transformed in mosaics of land cover and land uses

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Findings and recommendations How to reconcile all agricultural land uses, while maintainnig ecosystem services?

Limiting agricultural expansion, setting clear goals for the longer term, reconcile policies from different ministeries is important

Land allocation zoning policies at different government levels are complex and sometimes contradicting: as it exists now, it does not guarantee the maintenance of forest cover or food production

Reconciliation of spatial planning vs. land allocation zoning vs. concession permits important: crucial factors in land use patterns

Involve stakeholders and apply planning methods (e.g. RCA, Smit et al., 2013)

23

Recommendations: Certification schemes important: e.g. avoiding HCV areas

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Thank you, Terima kasih

Carina van der Laan c.vanderlaan@uu.nl

Co-promotors: Pita Verweij, Stefan Dekker

Promotor: André Faaij

With input and support from: Arif Budiman, Judith Verstegen, Laurens Bakker, Wiwin Effendy, Arif Data Kusuma

Funded by: NWO & KNAW 25