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Lars-Erik Cederman

International Conflict Research, www.icr.ethz.ch/

Berlin Summer Dialogue,

Development and Peace Foundation (sef:), June 29, 2017

1

The Exclusion/Violent Conflict Nexus

| 2

landdestroyer.blogspot.com

www.telegraph.co.uk

Ethnic exclusion

in recent and current civil wars

www.telegraph.co.uk

South Sudan

Israel,

Gaza,

West Bank

Isis Ukraine

|

Greed/Opportunities or Grievances?

3

Frances Stewart,

Oxford Univ.

Horizontal Inequalities

cause conflict

Paul Collier,

Oxford Univ.

Inequality irrelevant!

Profits & opportunity costs

|

Our research

Focus on how ethnic inequality along

political and economic lines may

trigger civil war

Inequality, Grievances and Civil War Lars-Erik Cederman, ETH Zürich

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch Univ. of Essex

Halvard Buhaug, PRIO

Cambridge University Press, 2013

Articles in American Political Science Review,

American Journal of Political Science,

International Organization, World Politics,

Journal of Peace Research, Journal of Conflict

Resolution

4

|

From ethnic exclusion to civil war

Horizontal

inequality

Grievances

Macro link

Group identification

Intergroup comparison

Evaluation of injustice

Framing and blaming

Repression

Mobilization

Civil war

|

Ethnic Power Relations Dataset

Ethnic groups’ power access and settlement areas

worldwide 1946-2013

6

Vogt et. al. 2015. Journal of Conflict Resolution

http://growup.ethz.ch

|

Ethno-political inequality and civil war

7

0.0

00

0.0

02

0.0

04

0.0

06

0.0

08

0.0

10

Political Status

Pre

dic

ted

Pro

babili

ty o

f C

onflic

t

Included Excluded

Conflict probability

Included

groups

Excluded

groups

See Cederman, Wimmer & Min (2010)

Source: Ethnic Power Relations (EPR-ETH) Dataset, http://growup.ethz.ch

Government

Group 1

Group 2

Group 3

Group 4

Group 5

State

Polity

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Ethno-economic inequality and civil war

8

1 2 3 4 5 6

0.0

00.0

10.0

20.0

30

.04

0.0

5

Low Ratio

Pre

dic

ted

Pro

bab

ility

of

Con

flic

t

Measuring inequality Effect of inequality

Relative poverty of group

Conflict

prob.

See Cederman, Weidmann & Gleditsch (2011)

Source: Ethnic Power Relations (EPR) Dataset, http://growup.ethz.ch

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Responses to ethnic diversity

9

Predominance Partition Power-Sharing

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Power sharing & reverse causation

10

–

+

–

+

|

Explaining postcolonial conflict

11

Conflict Colonial

Strategy

Initial

Exclusion

Wucherpfennig,

Hunziker, Cederman.

2016. “Who Inherits the

State? Colonial Rule

and Post-Colonial

Conflict.” American

Journal of Political

Science

3 4 5 6 7

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Initial Inclusion

log Distance to Coast

Pre

dic

ted

Pro

bab

ility

British

French

3 4 5 6 7

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

British vs. French Initial Inclusion

log Distance to Coast

Diffe

ren

ce

in

Pre

dic

ted

Pro

ba

bili

ty

−1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Change in Predicted Probability of Conflict f or Included Groups

Den

sity

Model 3

Model 4

naïve

with reverse

causation

change in conflict

probability

distance from coast

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Trends in ethno-political inequality:

Excluded population in world regions

12

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Ethno-economic inequality over time

13 Bormann, Cederman, Pengl & Weidmann. 2016. Globalization, Exclusion and Ethnic Inequality.

Working Paper.

Asia

Nig

htlig

hts

p.c

., lo

g

−7.5

−6

.5−

5.5

−4

.5

1992 1998 2004 2010

Sub−Saharan Africa

1992 1998 2004 2010

IncludedExcluded

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Conclusions

Political HI Conflict

Economic HI Conflict

Power sharing usually effective

Political HI decreasing except in the Middle East

Economic HI decreasing except in Sub-Saharan Africa

Home page:

www.icr.ethz.ch/

Ethnic power relations in fragile states:

http://www.r4d.epr.ethz.ch/

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