The evolution of generic medicine market share in the pharmaceutical retail sector of 21

countries between 1999 and 2009: a time series analysis

Presented by: Warren A. Kaplan 1

Co-authors: Veronika J. Wirtz2, Dennis Ross-Degnan3, Peter Stephens4

1 Center for Global Health & Development, Boston University, USA

2 Center for Health Systems Research, National Institute of Public Health, Mexico

3 Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute

4 IMS Health, UK

Objectives

1. Investigate the retail, private sector market share by volume of generic medicines in various countries since 1999, data provided by IMS-Health.

– GLOBALLY, aggregated by regions;– REGIONALLY: Latin America/Caribbean, Asia and Africa– COUNTRY-SPECIFIC-selected countries

2. Investigate the retail, private sectormarket share by volume of selected tracer medicines since 2000, data provided by IMS-Health.

– AS INDIVIDUAL “TRACER” MEDICINES: simvastatin, omeprazole

3. Determine which level of analysis (global, regional, country, and/or tracer) best might provide retrospective and/or prospective data for decision-makers to evaluate existing and future pro-generic medicine policies .

Methods• Data obtained from IMS Health• PRIVATE SECTOR RETAIL volume data (i.e. number of pills/units)-excluding

vitamins and insulin– Latin America/Caribbean: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Dominican

Republic, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela, – Asia/Pacific: Bangladesh, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand, – Africa: Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, South Africa– United States

• Branded Generic: Brand names marketed by a company without permission (license) from the originator

• INN generic: Sold by any company under the INN name

• “Generic(s)”: Branded + INN generics

• Total Market: Branded + INN+ Originator

Overall, market share of generics has increased; More in LAC than other places

By region, branded generic and INN generic market shares are divergent

In selected Countries: Generic market share is increasing over time but at varying rates

Generic Simvastatin 20mg: Effect of patent expiration U.S. (First patent expired 12/2005)

Worldwide: (First patent would have expired in 2001)

Generic Simvastatin 20mg :Even assuming a patent in Jordan/Egypt, why no

‘uptake’ after 2001?

Omeprazole patent expired in Mexico in 1999 & in the U.S.A. in 2001/NOT patented in other listed countries

What is holding back ‘uptake’ in Mexico?Why the lag in the Philippines?

Conclusions

• In general, global volume share of generic medicines has increased over the last decade; substantial differences exist by country and region in total generic marked share as well as branded vs. unbranded generics;

• The large increase in generic market share in LAC might be a result of more comprehensive pro-generic policies;

• Retail volume and patent data for individual medicines could provide an important tool for pharmaceutical policy evaluation:– Serve as a retrospective policy evaluator for decision-makers ( interrupted

time series)

– Serve as a prospective means to monitor policy impact in each country (trend analysis).