The Energy Report

© W

ild Wonders of E

urope / Inaki Relanzon / W

WF

Connecting the grid with RES

Dr Stephan SingerDirector

Global Energy Policy WWF

Brussels, Feb 2013

The Energy Report

1. Limit demand for energy through conservation and efficiencies

2. Use renewable energy to fill remaining demand

The Scenario

The Energy Report

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Fin

al en

erg

y (

EJ/

a)

Oth(N): Electricity

Oth(O): Electricity

Oth(G): Electricity

Oth(C): Electricity

Bio(C): Electricity

Bio(F): Electricity

Bio(R): Electricity

Geo: Electricity

Hydro

CS: Power

PV

Wave & Tidal

Wind: Off-shore

Wind: On-shore

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

Bio: Crops

Bio: Comp.Fellings

Bio: Resid. & Waste

Geothermal

Hydropower

CSP

PV

Wave & Tidal

Wind: Off-shore

Wind: On-shore

100% Renewable ElectricityRenewable electricity will be so abundant that options

will compete against each other even before 2050

The Energy Report

Global wind power growth

Source: REN 21, 2012

The Energy Report

Global PV growth

Source: REN 21, 2012

The Energy Report

Global CSP growth

Source: REN 21, 2012

Annual RES investments

Source: PEW, BNEF, 2012

Wind power Growth in 2012 I

Wind power Growth in 2012 II

RES share of electricity

Source: REN 21, 2012

Projected ‘BAU’ development for clean energy: 10- fold capacity increase by 2030 worldwide – A

‘Policy’ scenario would grow RES further GW

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2011

The Energy Report

Source: Siemens 2011

The Energy ReportRecent Renewablecost developments

Source: IPCC, 2011

The Energy Report

• 71% of all new power capacity in EU in 2011 was RES, mainly wind and solar. Very similar in 2012

• In 2010 worldwide, new RES was 84 GW capacity, FF and nuclear were 97 GW. Wind and solar alone were 35% of all new power capacity and 30% of all new power supply.

• In 2011, India grew solar by 700%, Germany added 8 GW PV• China added 12 GW wind in 2011 surpassing US• RES investments overtaking FF in 2010: $US 233 bln for RES

power (about 190 bln mainly wind and solar) vs $US 219 bln in FF capacity

• Wind grew from 0.3 to 240 GW between 1985 and early 2012. Reason: Load factors grew from 20% to 34% and Levelised Cost of Electricity of onshore wind has fallen by 75% between 1985 and 2011 to €52/MWh – CCGT trails at €46/MWh.

Watch this new reality

Source: Bloomberg NEF various 2010, 2011, 2012; REN 21, 2011

Source: Bloomberg NEF, 2011

Key renewables projected to much further decrease costs

Grids must be included from the verybeginningfor RES projects and wider planning!Things to watch and to learn I

• An integrated national and regional energy policy “No one is an island”• TSO and DSO must be at the policy development table• Implement not domestic capacity targets (GW) but consumption targets (GWh)• Include electrification of transport into grid planning/development• Preferred grid access for RES• Do not make grid planning limited to short-term RES targets, they last 50 years• Prepare for 100% RES in electricity eventually • Grid links must be full part of and synchronised with planning RES projects• Grid development and enhancement needs technical and political load and grid management – TSO coordination across borders/regions• Wherever possible free (!) cross-regional and cross-border connections are essential for cost-effectiveness

• Some technologies are more ‘variable’ than others (PV/wind)• Storage is less of an problem with interconnections (somewhere……)• Smart grid technologies are much more than just ‘metering’……• Low flexibility power systems (nuclear, coal) stand in way structurally • Good grid planning & early integration will cost less than 5% of overall RES project development• Bad grid planning & integration may cost >20%• Overall, a new clean energy system based on RES (even if not 100%) will need to move away from our central base-load system to an highly efficient and IT-led dispatchable-load-on-demand system

Grids must be included from the verybeginningfor RES projects and wider planning!Things to watch and to learn II

The Energy ReportVisit us for full report at:www.panda.org/energyreport

A world powered by 100% renewable, sustainable energy by mid-century

In all of our hands - policy-

makers, investors, corporate

leaders, communities and

individuals.

Stop fossil fuel pollution;

save money; address

climate change; improve

health; no nuclear risks;

new jobs; innovation;

protect nature

Extensive electrification of

transport; enhanced energy

conservation; smart grids;

sustainable energy for all

Conserving energy & reducing demand; electrification;

equity; investment; land/water/sea-use implications;

governance; lifestyle choices - behaviour changes &

public attitudes; innovation and R&D

A VISION

A SCENARIO

SOLUTIONS

CHALLENGES

BENEFITS