Efficiency Improvement Possibilities in CCGT Power Plant ...
The Energy Policy Context for the Australian Energy...
Transcript of The Energy Policy Context for the Australian Energy...
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The Energy Policy Context for the Australian Energy Technology
AssessmentDrew Clarke
Secretary, Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism
Australian National University 30 October 2012
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Outline
I Energy Policy- drivers and opportunities
II Electricity Markets - prices, demand and investment
III Gas Markets- reserves, production and consumption
IV Australian Energy Technology
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Australian Energy Policy
Market drivers
Energy Opportunities• Sustained economic growth
• Higher standard of living
• Healthier environment
Key Variables
Security
Environment
Policy drivers
Price
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Energy White Paper: Priorities
Strengthening the resilience of Australia’s energy policy framework
Reinvigorating the energy market reform agenda (markets and
energy productivity
Developing Australia’s critical energy resources – particularly gas
Accelerating clean energy outcomes
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II. Electricity Markets
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Electricity price, 1981/82 to 2011/12(index, 1989/90=100)
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1981‐82 1986‐87 1991‐92 1996‐97 2001‐02 2006‐07 2011‐12
Index 1989–90
Residential CPI Business
Source: BREE; ABS
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Australia’s Projected Electricity Demand:NEFR 2012 vs ESOO 2011 Annual Energy
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NEM Peak vs Average Demand Growth2005-11
ENA 2012, AEMO 2011, AEMC 2012
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NEM generation capacity by fuel – 2000 and 2012
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NEM – Generation Development
608 60 21 Committed
3 Advanced
13,427 1,228 40 525 273 3,270 17 11,720 2,950 Publicly announced
WindSolar Hydro Geothermal Biomass Black coal Engine (gas fuelled)
Open‐cycle gas turbine
Combined cycle gas turbine
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III. Gas Markets
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Australia’s Gas Resources
0 .0 0
0 .5 0
1 .0 0
1 .5 0
2 .0 0
2 .5 0
3 .0 0
3 .5 0
1 9 8 2 1 9 8 4 19 8 6 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 2 19 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 00 0 20 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 00 8 20 1 0
t cm
c onve n tional gas c oal se am gas
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Australian Gas Consumption
Source: BREE 2012, AES Table C
Consumption by Sector, 2009-10
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Australia’s Gas Balance to 2035
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Australian LNG Production Capacity
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World Unconventional Gas Outlook – 2035: Ten Largest Producers in the Golden Rules Case
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IV. Australian Energy Technology
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World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement
Source: IEA, WEO 2011
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Global investment in renewables
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2011)
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Australian Government support for renewable energy technology development
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Australian Renewable Energy Agency
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Australian Government funding in CCS
• Major government funding support flows from:
– CCS Flagships program ($1.7 billion)– National Low Emissions Coal Initiative
($370 million), established in 2008– National CO2 Infrastructure Plan
($61 million) – Global CCS Institute ($315 million)
“Australian Government funding is aimed at providing the framework and investment support needed to accelerate the development and deployment of CCS”.
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Large Scale Integrated CCS Projects
Source: GCCSI, 2012
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AETA 2012 Timelines
• Project initiated on 4 October 2011 to assess LCOE for 40 different technologies by state (and some cases sub-state) for 2012, 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050.
• Work undertaken jointly with AEMO (Stage I). WorleyParsons (WP) has been primary contractor to deliver component costs and LCOE. WP sub-contracted ACILTasman to provide fuel costs and CSIRO provided use of its ‘learning rate’ model for long-term cost projections.
• Release of AETA Report and AETA Model 31 July 2012.
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Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE)
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∑
=
=
+
+++
= n
tt
t
n
tt
ttt
rE
rFMI
LCOE
1
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Key Assumptions
• AETA was developed to be consistent with the Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) National Transmission Network Development Plan (NTNDP), and its ‘planning scenario’.
• Key assumptions include: (1) economic growth of 2.5%; (2) $23/tonne CO2-e leading to a 5% reduction in CO2 by 2020, and 80 % by 2050; (3) AUD moving to peak of 1.13 USD/AUD by 2016-17 and low of 0.86 USD/AUD by 2031-32.
• Capital costs are provided on the basis of an Nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) plant in Australia and at a utility-scale.
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AETA Technologies
• 40 electricity technologies evaluated:• Coal-based (14 options with different fuels & technologies)• Gas-based (CCGT with various options)• Solar-thermal (CLFR, parabolic trough, central receiver)• Solar-thermal hybrid (solar-coal & integrated solar
combined cycle)• Photovoltaic (fixed and tracking)• Wind (on-shore and off-shore)• Wave (reaction point absorber)• Biomass (landfill, sugarcane & other)• Geothermal (HSA and EGS)• Nuclear (Generation III)
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AETA Common Technology Parameters
2012 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
O&M Escalation rate 150% 150% 150% 150% 150% 150% % of CPICarbon Price 23.0 32.2 43.2 57.6 97.0 143.4 $/t CO2Carbon Price Modifier (% of core price) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%O&M Improvement Rate 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
Common Technology Cost Forecast Data
Common Escalation Factors
USER INPUT
UnitsYear
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AETA: Specific Technology Parameters16. Combined cycle plant burning natural gas (CCGT)
Basis: Single F Class gas turbine
Inputs ValueBase Value Units Capital cost construction profile
Plant Capacity (Net) 374 374 MW Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Plant Capacity Factor 83 83 % 60% 40%
Thermal Efficiency 49.5 49.5 % Base: 60% 40%
Auxiliary Load 12 12 MW 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Emissions 368 368 kgCO2e/MWh (Net) Capital Cost Forecast Summary ($/kW) 2012 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
% Emissions captured 0 0.0 % North Queensland 1167 1185 1189 1203 1211 1243
First Year available for construction 2012 2012 South Queensland 1139 1157 1161 1174 1183 1214
2012 Overnight Capital Cost 1062 1062 $/kW NSW (including ACT) 1089 1105 1109 1122 1130 1160
Fixed O&M cost 10000 10000$/MW/year Vic 1043 1059 1063 1075 1083 1111
Variable O&M cost 4 4$/MWhsent out Tas 993 1008 1011 1023 1031 1058
Local equipment and commodity split 18 18% of Capex SA 1097 1114 1118 1131 1139 1169
International Equipment split 56 56% of Capex Northern Territory 1134 1152 1156 1169 1178 1209
Labour split 26 26% of Capex SWIS (WA) 1135 1153 1157 1170 1179 1210
Discount Rate 10 10 % Pilbara (WA) 1194 1212 1216 1230 1239 1272
Amortisation Period (Life of Plant) 30 30 years
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Australian Energy Technology Assessment 2012 (for 2030)
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Australian Energy Policy
Market drivers
Energy Opportunities• Sustained economic growth
• Higher standard of living
• Healthier environment
Key Variables
Security
Environment
Policy drivers
Price