The Energy Challenges of the 21 st Century toward an Electric World

IPLOCA - Athens – October 3, 2008E n e r g y C e n t e r

The Energy Challenges of the 21st Centurytoward an Electric World

Hans Björn (Teddy) Püttgen

Professeur, Chaire de Gestion des Systèmes Energétiques

Directeur, Energy Center

Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Georgia Power Professor Emeritus, Georgia Institute of Technology

Fellow IEEE

IPLOCA

Athens, October 3, 2008


• Availability and broad access of reliable and affordable preventative and clinical health services world-wide

• Production and distribution of food world-wide; convergence with energy production

• Production, storage, transport, delivery and end-use of energy

Main R & D Challenges of the 21st Century

Water resources and cycle


Background– (1)

The industrial revolution was launched in the 19th century with the invention of the steam machine.

The broad-based reliance on coal was initiated.

The 19th century was that of coal.


Background– (2)

Electricity was the enabling force behind the economic revolution of the 20th century.

The information and communication revolutions happened duing the second part of the 20th century thanks to semiconductors.

The transportation revolution also happened during the 20th century.

The 20th century was that of hydrocarbons.


Background: demographic explosion

In 2050, the world population is expected to have reached 9.4 billion, an increase of 3.0 billion from 2005.

Not only will the population significantly grow but its distribution will also evolve:

The population of Europe is expected to decrease from 730 million presently to 649 million.

The population of Africa is expected to explose to 2 050 million compared to 900 at present.

The population of Asia is expected to reach 5.5 billion compared to 3.9 billion at present.

In 2050, India is expected to have the highest population with 1.8 billion, compared to China with 1.4 billion.

Source: United Nations & US Census Bureau


Primary energy world wide

1973 % 2006 % croiss.

OECD 3'747 61% 5'590 48% 149%

Non OECD 2'368 39% 6'151 52% 260%

6'115 11'741 192%

Source: IEA 2008

The energy growth primarily takes place outside of the OECD

*Exclude electricity trade **Other includes geothermal, solar, wind, heat, etc.


Electricity production world wide

Primary energy growth: 192 %

Electricity growth: 310 %

The electrification of the world increases quickly

Source: IEA 2008


World per capita total primary energy consumption - MWh

Source: DOE, 2008

0.2931 1982 2005 Δ %

North America Bermuda, Canada, Groenland, Mexico, St-Pierre et Miquelon, USA 77.2 82.2 6.4

Central & South America 11.0 15.3 38.5

Europe EU 27, Turkey, other ex-communist countries of Eastern Europe 37.7 42.9 13.8

Eurasia Former USSR 53.4 47.0 -12.0

Middle-East 18.5 36.5 97.9

Africa 4.4 4.7 6.6

Asia & Oceania 5.8 12.0 108.1

World 17.9 21.0 17.8


Green house gas emissions: CO2

Switzerland

CO2 emissions per capita: 5.95 tons

CO2 emissions per GDP: 0.18 kg/US$

Austria



France



Germany



World



Europe 25



North America



China


CO2 emissions per GDP: 2.76kg/US$


Europeans are very concerned with climate change


Ecological footprint

Source: WWF


Two types of challenges

From the data given above, one should come to the conclusion that there are two types of challenges:

In industrialized countries, the challenge is the rational utilization of energy.

In emerging countries, the challenge is a massive increase in energy production while avoiding a catastrophic impact on the environment.


Rational end-use of energy


Primary power consumption

Source: Novatlantis

Margin to 2000 W

Excess over 2000 W


Switzerland’s situation – 2 000 Watt Society

The 2 000 Watt Society is a metaphor toward a society using energy in a rational and sustainable way.

16

|ST/Proj/22174/Vortrag/eigene/W_Def/W_Definition_V03

Summary

Energy Primary energy

Reduction to 1/2 by mid 21st century

Reduction to 1/3 by 22nd century

CO2

CO2-equivalent

Reduction to 1/4 by mid 21st century

Reduction to 1/8 by 22nd century

17ST/Proj/22174/Vortrag/060928_AWLausanne

2050

Minergie P3 litres de

fuel/m2

2005

Personal cars10 liters/100km

(gasoline & diesel)

Buildings10 liters fuel /m2

Fossil energy sources

Petroleum, gas, coal

Waste society350 kg/yr/person

Lightweight vehicles

3 liters/100km(gas, H2)

Renewables (sun fuels)

Closed circuit materials

150kg/yr/person

2000 Watt Society means


Rational end-use of energy Buildings

We already know how to build intelligent houses, buildings and towns.

Issue: Building rotation

Focus should be on renovations

Electric heat pumps will replace standard furnaces


Rational end-use of energyTransportation

Very fast progress is possible along several transportation technologies, in the public and private sectors.

Needed: agressive and coordinated public policy

Plug-in hybrid vehicles represent a huge new market opportunity


Rational end-use of energyBiofuels

Biofuels and biomass will play an increasingly important role.

A conflict between food and energy production must be avoided.

A multicriteria labeling system, acceptable and adoptable by consuming and producing countries, is crucial.

Needed: second generation technology for cellulosic products.


The Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels

Ensuring that biofuels deliver on their promise of sustainability


The Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels

We are an international multi-stakeholder initiative developing principles and criteria for sustainable biofuels production that will be:

Simple, accessible and implemented worldwide

Generic to all crops

Adaptable to new information

Efficient and cheap to measure

In line with WTO rules(use ISEAL code)


E25 Supporters


Rational end-use of energy

puettgen


Energy production


Energy production

It is not reasonable for industrialized countries to ask emerging countries to reduce their short term energy requirements.


Energy production


The energy deficit of China, India & Africa

While the world average of primary power per inhabitant is 2 000 W, it is 900 W per inhabitant in China, India and Africa combined.

To remedy this deficit, the construction of some 3 000 nuclear power plants of 1 300 MW each would be required.

The China has already started to add 70 000 MW of new generation per year and will do so during the next decade.


World wide coal reserves

The coal reserves in the United States, Russia, China, India, and in South Africa are sufficient to fulfill their energy requirements for centuries.

We know how to build coal fired power plants with good energy efficiency and acceptable environmental impact. However, these technologies are expensive to implement and operate.

The question then is: how can industrialized countries ensure that these technologies are used in emerging countries?


Energy production by fossil fuels

The 21st century will be that of coal.

As a result, the three questions are:

Will we be able to ensure that the best technologies are used world wide?

How quickly will we be able to transition to other sources?

What other sources will we be able to rely upon during the transition toward an abundable and reliable source?


Carbon cycle management

Legislation

Cap and Trade

Taxes

Sequestration and storage

Precombustion processing

Postcombustion processing

Storage – in geoligocal structures, in oceans, …

Carbon utilization

Enhanced oil recovery - EOR

Energy vector in urban systems

Material


Hydro power plants

The pursuit of large hydro facilities in emerging regions and countries (China, Africa, South-east Asia) is inevitable and probably desirable.


Hydro energy We need to gain a better understanding as to the climate

interactions and implications between the massive water surfaces associated with these facilities.

Countries with significant mountains, such as the alps, by constructing hydro pumped-storage facilities can become the electric energy lungs for entire regions while receiving very good financial compensation for these services. Such large volume energy storage capacities are mission critical for the development of solar and wind energy resources.

Mini and micro hydro facilities will become more and more popular, especially in emerging countries, in conjuncion with CO2 compensation requirements in industrialized countries


INGA IIIWESTCORPROJECT

GRAND INGA

Water Head (m)

Turbine Water flow (m3/s)

Number of units

Installed Capacity (MW)

Generation (TWh/y)

60

6.300

16

3.500*

23,5

150

26.400

52

39.000*

288,0

GRAND INGA

INGA 3

(*) Without any optimization of the site

WESTCOR PROJECT


Photovoltaic

World wide installed capacity: less than 4 000 MW

Japan: 1 420 MW

Germany: 1 420 MW

United States: 480 MW

Switzerland: 26 MW

Average capacity factor with respect to the installed capacity: 17% in the USA and 9.2% in Switzerland


Wind

Very fast market penetration.

74 000 MW installed capacity world wide:

20 600 MW in Gernany 11 600 MW in Spain 11 600 MW in the United States

Major manufacturers, such as General Electric and Siemens are major market players – as is an Indian corporation.

Average capacity factor with respect to the installed capacity: 27% in the USA and 14.% in Switzerland


Positioning of renawables and storage

It behooves utilities to openly and fully endorse all forms of renewable energy, in a transparent and visible manner.

Building on this strategy, a credible communication strategy can be put forward and implemented to inform the public at large as to the various avenues toward a sustainable and environmentally benign generation mix while taking local socio-economic conditions and constraints into account.

Due to the random nature of the raw source, the only way to ensure significant penetration of solar and wind power, while maintaing suitable levels of system availability, is to build massive energy storage facilities – hydro, mechanical, chemical.

We need massive R&D in this arena.


Nuclear 433 nuclear power plants are operational in 38 countries (2007).

130 in western Europe - 59 in France

128 in America - 104 in the United States

Average capacity factor with respect to the installed capacity: 89.9% Etats-Unis and 92% in Switzerland.

106 in Asia – 55 in Japan, 17 in India

67 in the former USSR and Eastern Europe

2 in Africa

Some 100 plants are either under construction or planned in Finland, France, China, India, Brazil,….

16% of electricity production in the world. 78% in France

42% in Switzerland

32% in Germany

19% in the United States

Less than 5% in China


Nuclear

With what to replace the existing 433 plants?

The pursuit of the development of the III+ and IV generations is indispensable.

The developpement of the hydrogen economy makes little sense without generation IV nuclear plants.


Fusion

The key energy quest of the 21st century should be toward controlled fusion.

Our energy future will look dramatically different whether controlled fusion will work or not.


ITER site in Cadarache


Toward and electric world

Future transportation systems will increasingly become electric.

A more sober consumption of energy requires a heavier reliance on electricity – heat pumps, for example.

Hydro, wind, PV, ocean, fuel cells all use electricity as the energy vector.

We are at the dawn of a nuclear renaissance.

Fusion will use electricity as the energy vector.

We know how to build electric transmission and distribution systems that are highly reliable and with benign ecological impact.


Electric power infrastructure


Electric power infrastructure

Blackout Italy

© OECD/IEA - 2006

Oil 21%

Electricity56%

Coal 3%Gas 19%

Reference Scenario: Will the Investment Come?

Just over half of all investment needs to 2030 are in developing countries, 18% in China alone

Cumulative Investment in Energy-Supply Infrastructure, 2005-2030 = $20.2 trillion (in $2005)

Power generation

54%

46%

OtherRefining

73%

18%9%

LNG chainTransmission and

distribution

56%

37%

7%

Mining

Shipping & ports11%

89%

$4.3 trillion$11.3

trillion

$3.9 trillion$0.6 trillion

Biofuels 1%

Exploration & development

Transmission & distribution

Exploration & development

4

ECLEER :Centre Européen de Recherche en Efficacité Energétique


Energy research during the 21st century – (1)

Technological Centralized and decentralized energy production

Rational energy end-use

Distributed and multi-level energy storage

Multi-vector energy transport and distribution

Systems Integration of multiple technologies

« Plug and operate »

Reliability, robustness and safety

Acceptability


Energy research during the 21st century – (2)

Public policy and regulations Roles of the public and private sectors

Creation and promulgation of a transparent and stable public policy and regulatory environment

Transparent financial incentives and tax initiatives

Socio - economic Transparent tarifs and rates

Customer behavioral studies

Implementation of a socio-economic environment which induces customer behavioral modification.

Integrated planning, including infrastructures, energy and water is one of the key issues facing modern cities


EPFL Energy Center

Development of sustainable energy production, storage, transportation, distribution, and end-use systems and technologies.

Actively participate in the formulation and implemen-tation of the private and public sector policies and strategies required to achieve such development.

Position the EPFL Energy Center as a convenient and competent partner for the public and private sectors in a broad range of energy challenges.


The Energy Challenges of the 21st Centurytoward an Electric World

Hans Björn (Teddy) Püttgen

Professeur, Chaire de Gestion des Systèmes Energétiques

Directeur, Energy Center

Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Georgia Power Professor Emeritus, Georgia Institute of Technology

Fellow IEEE

IPLOCA

Athens, October 3, 2008

The Energy Challenges of the 21 st Century toward an Electric World

Documents

Transcript of The Energy Challenges of the 21 st Century toward an Electric World