THE ENERGETICSTHE ENERGETICSOF MODERN CLIMATE OF MODERN CLIMATE

CHANGESCHANGES

S.V.AVAKYAN1,2 A.AYLWORD3

11 All-Russian SCIENTIFIC CENTER S.I.VAVILOV STATE OPTICAL INSTITUTE,

2 CENTRAL (at Pulkovo) ASTRONOMICAL OBSERVATORY RAS,

3 UNIVERSITY COLLEGE of LONDON

Working Group of ISSI, Swiss, January, 2015

ABSTRACTWe analyze the link between the cloudiness cover and the level of solar-geomagnetic activity including solar flares and principal magnetic storms. The existence of this link was confirmed for global distribution of different cloud levels for different time scales – from daily variations at

high mountain station to long-term trends during the last decades.

The results of the investigation have been used for analysis of energy of sun-weather-climate

connections including changes in radiation balance and global air temperature during last decades.

Some ways of taking into account the solar signal in mid- long term weather forecast are suggested.

ABSTRACTThe contribution of novel radiooptical trigger

mechanism of solar-tropospheric correlation with used microwaves emission of highly excited

Rydberg states from disturbance ionosphere. There the microwave radiation can interact with water cluster ions. Depending on circumstances and the

size of clusters, this may either disrupt or build the clusters, thus possibly affecting cloud formation. Controlling the amount of cloud influences the surface temperature. We would like to spark a discussion of this mechanism to see if it can be

established qualitatively how important this might be for climate control.

“Energetics of the modern climate changes”

1). We consider the impact of microwave emissions of the ionosphere disturbed by solar flares and magnetic storms on the troposphere

and suggest the radio-optical trigger mechanism of the solar influence on weather and climate of the Earth, which consists of

the following three stages:- the ionosphere absorbs the ionizing solar radiation and corpuscles

from the radiation belts and transforms them into microwaves through the excitation of Rydberg states;

- the rates of formation and destruction of water cluster ions are regulated by the microwave radiation at the troposphere;

- the clusters contribute to the formation of cloud, which affects the energy flux of the solar radiation at the troposphere and the flux

of the ougoing heat from the underlying surface.

Transmission of atmosphere.

«RADIOOPTICAL THREE STAGE TRIGGER» IN SOLAR – WEATHER / CLIMATE LINKS

III stage

Energy conversion in the ionosphere of the solar and geomagnetic activity to the MICROWAVE FLUX, which penetrates to the earth surface

II stage

I stage

The microwave radiation control of the RATES OF FORMATION AND DESTRUCTION of

WATER VAPOUR CLUSTER IONSin lower atmosphere at altitude more then 2 km

The contribution of the water vapour clusters to the formation of cloudness and atmospheric aerosol

layers which absorb and reflect the solar irradiance as well as thermal radiation coming

out from the underlying surface

We consider the impact of microwave emissions of the ionosphere disturbed by solar flares and

magnetic storms on the troposphere and suggest the solar influence on weather and climate of the

Earth.

The ionosphere absorbs the ionizing solar radiation and corpuscles from the radiation belts

and transforms these into microwaves

through the excitation of Rydberg states (inflated, blown up atoms and molecules) by

impact of ionospheric photo-, Auger and secondary electrons).

THE NUMBER OF DISTURBING EVENTS PER YEAR

FORBUSH DECREASE EVENTS: 1 (at 10 - 20%), 2 – 4 (at more than 3%, out of periods of geomagnetic storms and SCR).

SOLAR PROTON EVENTS (SCR): 5 (at the energy more than 100 MeV)

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS: 20 – 70 (for Kp more than 5).

SOLAR FLARES: 50 (for class more than M5).

S.E.C. User News, 2000

SUN Radiation belts during magnetic

storms1 Wm-2

Galactic cosmic rays

710-6 Wm-2

THE ENERGETICS OF SPACE FACTORS

Solarluminosity 1367 Wm-2

UV0,1 Wm-2

Solar wind310-4 Wm-

2

Solar cosmic rays

210-3 Wm-2

The magnitudes of energy fluxes, coming to terrestrial atmosphere

Magnitude of energy flaxes, absorbed in the earth atmosphereFROM SUN

IN IONOSPHERE 10-3 W gramm-1

FROM RADIATION BELTS DURING MAGNETIC STORMS

IN IONOSPHERE 10-1 W gramm-1

IN LOW ATMOSPHERE 710-5 Wgramm-1

The IONOSPHERE IS FIRST CANDIDATE on the ROLE of AGENT of INFLUENCE in the PHYSICS of SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL LINKS

Sun's flare phenomena

RADIO BURST EUV/X-ray FLARE MAGNETOSPHERE

Principal magnetic STORM

ADDITIONAL IONIZATION of the upper atmosphere

PRECIPITATION (e, p) from radiation belts

Photoelectrons, secondary electrons, Auger electrons

Excitation of high excited (RYDBERG) states

SPORADIC MICROWAVE IONOSPHERIC EMISSIONS

Control of condensation mechanism and change of atmospheric transparence by means of variation for ratio:

VAPOURS OF H2O / CLUSTERS FROM THE WATER VAPOUR

CONTROL CONDENSATION MECHANISM DURING DISTURBANCES IN SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITIES.

CONTROL BY MICROWAVE RADIATION of ion cluster chemistry in low atmosphere

THE INCREASE OF MICROWAVE FLUXFROM SUN AND TERRESTRIAL IONOSPHERE

AT THE DESTRUCTION OF CLUSTERS: Decrease of dissociative recombination rate for cluster from the water vapor after formation of the stable RYDBERG STATES (l>2) in the microwave field. Bates D.R., “Collisional dissociative recombination” of cluster ions, 1981.

AT THE FORMATION OF CLUSTERS:Increasing of association rate for polyatomic molecules with formation of the stable RYDBERG ORBITAL (l>2) in the microwave field.Gallas J.A.C. et al., 1985.

SPORADIC MICROWAVE IONOSPHERIC EMISSIONS

Increase of microwave fluxes from ionosphere

Arising of condensational cluster haze in the troposphere

Appearance of optically thin cloudiness

Decreasing of the atmospheric pressure

Decreasing (at day, summer) / increasing (at night, winter)

of the air temperature

Formation of total cloudiness

CONTROL CONDENSATION-CLASTER MECHANISM DURING DISTURBANCES IN SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITIES.

Here, we have revealed the inconsistency of the following frequently occurred assertions:

1. The global warming is basically due to the greenhouse effect related

to anthropogenic (carbon-containing) gases;

2. The increase in CO2 concentration is caused by

industrial, energetical, and transport ejections;

Here, we have revealed the inconsistency of the following frequently occurred assertions:

3. In spite of the fact that no pronounced “solar signal” is seen in climatic variations.

4. The climate is basically affected by variations in the solar constant-TSI and in cosmic rays,

The results of our study indicate the reverse:

1. The basic factor of the impact of solar-geomagnetic activity on the climate and weather is the microwave radiation of the ionosphere, which affects cloudiness.

2. The basic factor of anthropogenic impact is deforestation (last 50 years quintative of the forest decrease in two times (UNEP)) and abiotization of the land; only for the latest 30 years, the outcome of carbon dioxide from the troposphere to photosynthesis has decreased by the factor of 1.5 (from 300 to 200 bln tons)

The results of our study indicate the reverse:

3. The contribution of the “solar signal, or factors of increased solar-geomagnetic activity”, to the global warming in the late XX -

early XXI centuries dominates, while the greenhouse effect related to anthropogenic gases is of the second order

4. At the current stage of secular solar cycle, the role of the “solar signal” decreases, while deforestation increases.

5. Permanently for air temperature growth there are the increasing of the contribution of urbanization, especially for the based (old)

meteorological observatories and stations

6. But may be also the influence of the OCEAN DAMPING make the lag at the 15 – 18 years /Pokrovsky O.M., 2010/

Vertical profiles of Rydberg state excitation rates:1-quiet Sun; 2-solar flare X1(a), (b), (c) total excitation for the oxygen and nitrogen molecules and oxygen atom, respectively, in transition (s = 1); (d) partial excitation of level ( = 0) of the nitrogen molecule. Avakyan, Voronin, Serova, 1997.

uc

14

Our calculations

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250

1,0E-1 1,0E+0 1,0E+1 1,0E+2 1,0E+3 1,0E+4

q, cm-3 s-1

H,

km

1

2

3

4

5

The high function of excitation rates for Rydberg states for auroral zone (night aurora, IBC II): 1) the total excitation for nitrogen molecule,2) the total excitation for oxygen molecule,3-5) the partial excitation for atomic oxygen (3 - s = 0, 4 - l = 1, s = 0, 5 - l = 0, s = 0). Avakyan S.V., 25th General Assembly of URSI, 1996, France, JOT OSA, 2005

Our calculations

ENERGETICS OF MICROWAVE IONOSPHERIC GENERATION

The ratio of the energies dissipated in the ionosphere when there is a solar flare and during a geomagnetic storm shows that the flux of microwave radiation can be factor of 10–100 greater in intensity in the period of a magnetic storm. In this case, the radiation in the centimeter and decimeter ranges can now exceed 10−11–10−12 W cm−2.On the other hand, a calculation of the excitation rates of the Rydberg states of the oxygen atom gave a value of about 109 particles cm−2 sec−1 in a column of the ionosphere during the period of a medium class-(X1) 2B solar flare. Then, for values of the quantum energy in the centimeter range of 2x10−23 (for Lambda=1 cm) – 2x10−24 J (for Lambda =10 cm) in this column in ten allowed transitions, we have a flux density of microwave radiation of 2x10−13–2x10−14 W/cm2. This flux density is the lower limit for transitions with delta n=1 (only for delta l=1), i.e., those of the type n', l'=n'−1→n'−1, l''=n'−2, where n'=11–20 for an oxygen atom.This value increases to 10−11–10−12 W / cm2 during a magnetic storm.

THE COLLISIONS CAN BE NEGLECTED (IN ENERGY CALCULATIONS, WITHOUT THE ACCOUNT OF REDISTRIBUTION ON A SPECTRUM)rad. ~ n4 10-9 s.

100

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250

1,E-07 1,E-06 1,E-05 1,E-04 1,E-03 1,E-02 1,E-01 1,E+00

T, с

H, к

м

n = 20

n = 10

n = 10 (10-13 см2) l 2 - small predissociation, autoionization, collisional ionization, collisional

dissociation

Avakyan, J. Opt. Techn., 2006.

EXPERIMENTAL CONFIRMATIONSWe should emphasise that all the stages of the proposed mechanism were confirmed experimentally:

-The microwave radiation of the ionosphere intensifying during solar and magnetic storms was detected (V.S.Troitskii et al., 1973).-The control of humidity at heights exceeding 3 km by both the microwave radiation of the Sun and solar flares was recorded (Krauklis et al., 1990; Nikol’skii and Shul’ts, 1991).-The direct influence of solar and magnetic storms on the total cloudiness was clearly fixed (Dmitriev and Lomakina, 1977; Veretenenko and Pudovkin, 1996).

The observation from Caucas Mounts (more than 2 km) show that OPTICAL TRANSPARENCY OF TROPOSPHERE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ABSORPTION BANDS FOR

WATER VAPORS AND WATER CLUSTERS ( 320 - 330, 360, 380 - 390, 400 and 480 nm) HAVE THE CONTROL BY SOLAR FLARES and MICROWAVE BURSTS: association of clusters at the microwaves 2-3 cm and more12 cm;their dissociation at 3- 12 cm

Kondrat’iev K., Nikol’skii G., Shults E.s, 1990, 1991, 1995.

The day time dependence of total content of a water vapour at the altitude more than a level of 2,1 km for July 29, 1981. Wф - restored day time course W in background requirements. In the bottom part of figure ARE SHOWN DURATION AND POWER OF SOLAR FLARES (SF, IF) AND RADIOBURSTS (RВ). G.A. Nikol’skii, Shults E.O., 1991.

W, cm Deposited layer water

Local time

2100 m

RB

RB

Flares

on frequenciesfrom 2950 MHzto 15000 MHz

The day time dependence of total content of a water vapour W on broadband filter actinometer at the altitude more than a level of 2,1 km. Observations 11.10.1981. ON AN ABSCISSA AXIS THE SOLAR FLARE ARE SHOWN. G.A. Nikol’skii, Shults E.O., 1991.

W, cm Deposited layer water

Local time

Decreasing (on 5 %) of total content of water vapour at atmospheric columb (during solar flares 19.05.2007 with beginning 13.02 UT). The joint Russian ( Pulkovo Astronomical Observat. of RAS) and (Astman Observatory) experiment in Germany, Lindenberg. /V.Galkin e.a., 2012/

Discovery of sporadic radioemission for the terrestrial ionosphere during

the solar flares and aurora ( = 3 cm - 50 cm)

Forsyth P.A., Petrie W., Currie B.W., On the origin of ten centimeter radiation from the polar aurora, Can. J. of Res., 28A, 3, 324, 1950.

Troitskii V.S., Starodubtseva A.M., Bondar' L.N., et al Search for sporadic radio emission from cosmic space at centimeter and decimeter

wavelengths. Radiophysics., v. XVI, N 3, pp. 323-342, 1973.

Musatenko S.I., Radioemission of a circumterraneous space as result of influence of solar flares on magnetosphere and ionosphere of the Earth,

Geomagnrtizm and aeronomy., v. 20, N 5, pp. 884-888, 1980.

Klimenko V.V., UHF waves from polar ionosphere, Dissertation, Irkutsk, 129 p., 2002.

Coincidence bursts in Pustin and Ussuriisk 22.09.1970 , = 50 cm.Solar chromospheric flare.Troitskii V.S., 1973.

Pustin, Ural;Ussuriisk, Far East;RUSSIATroitskii V.S., 1973

Signal from an ionosphere on frequency~600 MHz ( = 50 cm) from heights ~190-270 km during and after a heating by powerful short radiowaves ~6 MHz.

M.G. Grach et al. Ann. Geoph,2002

The facility for pumping of ionosphere “Sura” Russia.

Authors (Grach et al.) interpretationof experimental data as Rydberg excitation

by energetic ionospheric electronsTHE CITATION (2002):

“A more credible mechanism of the emission generation conditioned by the electron acceleration is related to the EXCITATION of the high RYDBERG STATES of the neutrals (atom O and molecule N2) by electron impact, and the transition of electrons between high Rydberg levels.” “A similar mechanism of UHF/VHF generation, namely the EXCITATION of the high RYDBERG STATES of atmospheric gases by photoelectrons, is attracted by Avakyan et al. (1997) for an interpretation of sporadic UHF/VHF radio emission of the ionosphere.”

The cloudiness every day after the X-ray solar flares (satellite regisration)

/A. Dmitriev,, E Lomakina, 1977- in Russian/

The cloudiness (balls) every day after the X-ray

solar flares -satellite regisration

/A. Dmitriev, 1987- in Russian/

1 – FLARES >C5,2 - FLARES > M1.5-2,

3 - FLARES > M2.5-4.5

"CП"-NORTH Hemisphere"ЮП” -SOUTH Hemisphere"СА"–USA (CENTER and

EAST)

Variations of the cirrus cloudiness after coming of Solar

cosmic rays (SCR)0 – day of the SCR bigining,

1 – latitude 52,6 , 2 – latitude 46,4.

Number of X-ray solar flaxes0 – day of the SCR bigining,

Minus 1 -2 days – days of the Solar Flares bigining

S.V.Veretenenko, M.I.Pudovkin

1996

Results of the influence of solar-geomagnetic events at a pressure P and temperature T at October, 2003 (H=2100m)Solar flare (type M4 ) resulted in a decrease in P (9 cases, or 82 %), though in two cases the pressure increased. Dramatic dips in P at the end of 28 and 29 October were apparently related to two powerful events of coming of solar cosmic rays, 28 at 12:20 UT and, 29 at 00:03 UT. Such events are increase cloudiness, which, as a rule,results in decline inP.

Anomalously strong Forbus effect 29

October (14-16 UT) result increase P.

Magnetic storms (Kpр5) acts in the troposphere in the same way as a

flare (due to an increase in perturbation of the ionosphere under

the influence of electrons precipitating from radiation belts). Respectively, increase in T in 16 out

of 19 observed events (84 %).G. A. Nikol'sky et al., 2014

In the paper (Bogdanov, M.B., A.N. Surkov, A.V. Fedorenko (2006),

“Effect of cosmic rays on atmospheric pressure at high altitudes”. Geomagn. Aeron., 46 (2), 268-274.) on the Alps (in the altitude

3475 m, mount Jungfraujoch) also were the data about influence of solar flares on the decreasing of tropospheric pressure.

.

Designated: 1 - period 1983 to 1985/7 years: the growth of clouds due to the increase in short-solar activity and an increase in the aa index of geomagnetic activity, as well as the world's number of magnetic storms, and 2 - the period c 1987 to 2000: the fall of EUV flux solar radiation [84] and the number of solar flares, 3 - from 2000 to 2003 : growth aa-index, continued until the end of 2003, 4 - from 2004: the overall decline of aa index of global magnetic storms and short electromagnetic activity of the Sun.

Comparison between variations of the global total (TC) and upper (UC) cloudiness and of the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI). Positive

correlation is obtained for (UC - 93%) and for (TC - lower (81%).

Clo

udin

ess,

%

Solar x-rays flares>=M4 and Solar cosmic rays (>10 MeV) at the 1975-2003. /Belov et al., 2005 /

Shown are variations in the current total energy flux of EUV solar photons (Lean, 2005).

aa- INDEX HAS BEEN GOING UP TILL 2003 (+ 0.6 % / YEAR). AFTER NOV., 2003, GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY ALSO as EUV STARTED DECREASING VERY FASTLY AND BEFORE THE LEVEL NEAR VALUES OF aa-INDEX FOR 1900 YEAR.

0

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30

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000Years

aa-i

ndex

Globally-averaged 5-yr mean low (blue) and mid+high (red) cloud amount 1985 / 2004.

(P. Goode, E. Palle, JASTP, 2007)

VARIOUS ROLE CLOUDINESS IN GLOBAL WARMING:

“The net radiative properties of a cloud are mainly depend on its altitude and optical thickness. Optically-thin clouds at high and middle altitudes cause a net warming due to their relative transparency at short wavelengths but opacity in the IR region, whereas thick clouds produce a net cooling due to the dominance of the increased albedo of short-wave solar radiation”. (J. Kirkby, A. Laaksonen, 2000).

THE MAIN AGENT OF GLOBAL WARMING - OPTICALLY THIN CLOUDINESS

- This condensation-cluster haze - largely similar thin cirrus clouds (which are defined as "invisible", "transparent", "subvisual“).- All these definitions the authors attributed to the type of WARMING CLOUDS as with virtually passing shortwave (visible) solar radiation such clouds and condensation-cluster smoke (haze), have the ability to create a greenhouse effect, since about half of the delayed flow of heat radiation of the underlying ground.

This means that negative trends have come both FOR SOLAR and GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITIES after 1985/7 . We suppose that according to our mechanism the modern natural global climate changes will go down to lower levels.

/Avakyan, S.V., Voronin, N.A.2010. On the radiooptical and optical mechanisms

of influence of cosmic factors on the global warming // J.Optical Technology-OSA, №2/

But may be the influence of the OCEAN DAMPING make the LAG at the 15 – 18 years

/Pokrovsky O.M., 2010/

Irradiance is the total solar energy flux received at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere (Frohlich, 2006, 2009).

The results of measurements of water vapor in the column of the atmosphere at high altitude (average value) and our approximation detectable trend

Total column atmospheric water vapor time variation in Texas (USA)

Global ocean temperature anomalies, C (ISCCP). In [Pokrovskii, 2012], a striking inconsistency is noted between the decrease in the global cloudiness with the simultaneous increase in the temperature of the ocean surface (apparently accompanied with the increase in vaporization from the surface of water) and the existing mechanisms of cloud formation.

Tem

pera

ture

Ano

mal

ies,

C

Our results indicate that the global cloudiness is basically driven by the variations of the solar-geomagnetic activity, while TCAWV - second order factor in the formation of clouds, since the abundance of water vapor is, as a rule, sufficient for that .

Changes of global outgoing radiation in the period 1984 – 2003: Increasing for thermal – on 15 W/m2 , decreasing for shortwave (visual) – on 10 %.

/V.A. Golovko, SRC «Planeta», 2003/

EVOLUTION OF THE EARTH TOTAL RADIATION BALANCE IN 1985 – 2003 (GOLOVKO, 2003):

- growth of the value of outgoing long wave radiation amounts to approximately 15 W/m2

- the value of outgoing short wave radiation reduced by approximately 10 W/m2.These facts agree with our estimations of radiooptical mechanism effects. Indeed reduction of total cloudiness from Solar activity maximum in 1985/87 to 2000 amounts to 4 – 5 %. At mean cloudiness albedo equal to 0.5 – 0.8 and taking into account the Earth sphericity we have342 W/m2x(0.04 - 0.05)x(0.5 – 0.8) = 6.8 – 13.7 W/m2.This is the evaluative value which corresponds to the decrease of the flow of outgoing short wave radiation. Its mean value is just 10 W/m2 which is in agreement with results of satellite data processing, made in (Golovko, 2003).

“Energetics of the modern climate changes”

2).Basing on analysis of satellite data on total global cloud cover and global energy balance the

contribution of secular maximum of solar-geomagnetic activity to the global warming of

the last decades has been determined. It constitutes 7 Wm–2.

This value exceeds contribution: of the deforestation (6.3 Wm–2 -S. Gorshkov, 2010),

of the greenhouse effect (2.63Wm–2 - IPCC), of the variations of “TSI” (less than 0.4 Wm–2).

Consequently “anomalous growth of the outgoing long-wave radiation” in our opinion (according to the radio-optical mechanism) testifies not to “the steady global warming

(Golovko, 2003)” but quite the contrary to the decrease of contribution of the thin

cloudiness which warms up lower atmosphere and hence to the decrease of the role which secular maximum of solar activity

plays in global warming.

ENERGETICS OF ANTHROPOGENIC AND RADIATION INFLUENCE ON THE EARTH CLIMATE DURING THE

PRESENT SECULAR MAXIMUM OF SOLAR ACTIVITY:According to our estimations we can assume that secular decrease of solar activity since 1985/86 and of geomagnetic activity since 2004 leads to the decrease of the energy of radiation influence on the Earth climate owing to the growth of the heat outgoing to space by 15 W/m2 (Golovko, 2003). This value:- is 6 times as much as the effect of greengases 2.63 W/m2,- 2.3 times exceeds the effect of forest cutting down which sums up to 6.3 W/m2 (Gorshkov, 2010),- is 15 times as mush as declared contribution of TSI (up to 1 W/m2 in various solar cycles)- 3 – 6 times exceeds the range of effective flows (2.5 – 5 W/m2) for the circulation changes (Borisenkov et al, 1989)

CONCLUSION for this section The novel physical mechanism for natural global climate changes is considered. The mechanism enables factors of solar and geomagnetic activities together affect low-atmospheric processes: with help of the ionospheric microwave fluxes which are generated during solar flares and magnetic storms. It is here very important for climatic changes, that the MAXIMUM OF SECULAR (quasi 100-yr and quasi 200-yr) CYCLE SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED IN EIGHTIES XX CENTURY

WE SUPPOSED THAT THESE EFFECTS MAY RESULT in SLOWING DOWN of GLOBAL WARMING in the NEAR FUTURE,Avakyan,Voronin,J.Opt.Techn. 2010,№2

Two possibilities are discussed concerning the use of data on solar-geomagnetic activity for meteorological forecasting (cloudiness, temperature and precipitation). The first possibility is consideration of quasicyclic recurrence of large solar flares and geomagnetic storms with periods of 2 – 5 years.Meteorologists and even geophysicists have found no significant correlation between atmospheric parameters and either number of solar spots or variations of solar constant. It was found that temperature did not display any variability with the 11-year period (the basic solar cycle). Instead stable quasi-periodic variations of temperature of air within 2 – 5.5 years and also for the precipitation periods in the interval 2 to 6 years were observed. Each 11-year cycle displays two-three maxima for the probability of solar X-ray and extreme UV flares and for probability of medium and strong geomagnetic storms (2 to 4 years for the flares and 2 to 6 years for significant magnetic storms), and those induced by solar flares, the latter, as a rule, between the maximum points of the number of geomagnetic storms.

For the periods shorter than one year the second possibility is taking into account the positive correlation of total global cloud cover with the total solar irradiance (TSI) - the contribution of short

wave radiation of faculae fields. From the data about these fields, on the basis of the known statistics for the lifetime of this

formation in the solar photosphere, it is possible to forecasting the variation of cloud and consequently the thermal radiative balance of the Earth (the temperature anomalies) for several months ahead. The physics of this manifestations of the effect

"solar signal" on the troposphere is also related with our radio-optical three-stage trigger mechanism. The microwave radiation

generated by ionosphere (by RYDBERG –inflated, blown up atoms and molecules) under the influence of the increased ionizing

fluxes of the during solar flares affects the cluster condensation process of origination and further evolution of optically thin

clouds. These clouds cause a net warming due to their relative transparence at short waves but opacity in the IR region - the

thermal radiation coming out from the underlying surface.

There is two - three maxima of SOLAR X-rays FLARES during 23-th solar cycle

There is two - three maxima of

large geomagnetic storms during 23-th solar cycle +

Spectral analysis for temperature at OsloТемпература воздуха в Осло по (Benestad, 2002)

Осадки в Осло, Норвегия (по Benestad, 2002)

Spectral analysis for temperature at St.Petersburg (2) and Moscow (1)По В.И.Колесниковой и А.С. Монину, 1989

“Energetics of the modern climate changes”

3).Two possibilities are discussed concerning the use of the data on solar-geomagnetic activity for meteorological forecast (cloudiness, temperature and precipitation).

The first possibility is consideration of quasicyclic recurrence of large solar flares and geomagnetic storms with periods of 2 – 5 years. For the periods shorter than

one year the second possibility is taking into account: the negative correlation of total global cloud cover with the number of solar spots and positive correlation with

the contribution of short wave radiation of faculae fields to the total solar irradiance (TSI).

Annual cycle (for five-day stretches) of air temperature anomalies (dT) and the total (general) cloudiness (dCl) in all RUSSIA for 1991 – 2004, relative to averages for 1966 - 1990. [Sherstyukov, 2008].

Variations in the warm half-year (for five-day stretches) of air temperature anomalies (dT) and the total (general) cloudiness (dCl), in magnitudes for 1991 – 2004, relative to averages for 1966 – 1990, for stations of Russia in the latitude zone 50 - 70 [Sherstyukov,

2008].

Proposal to

INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CENTER (2008 – 2009):

S.V. Avakyan, N.A. Voronin, A.V. Troitsky"The microwave response of the ionosphere to the solar flares and geomagnetic storms and its influence on the weather and climatic phenomena"26 May 2008 approved without funding(http://tech-db.istc.ru/ISTC/sc.nsf/html/projects.htm?open&id=3878).

Clearly that the bottom pair of spectra has many narrow telluric lines. This line of molecular water H2O, and in the upper pair of spectra in 12.04 UT (2.04.2001, during

solar flare X1) are absent. This suggests that an increase of the level solar activity in the troposphere strongly

decreases the concentration of water molecules. Low spectrum in 10.41 UT 25.10.2004, when was not flare.

Advancing space weather scienceto protect

society's technological infrastructure:COSPAR/ILWS roadmap, Moscow2014

(Summarized by Karel Schrijvier, Lockheed Martin, USA)

HIGHEST – PRIORITY RECOMMENDATIONS“Partner with climate/weather stakeholders” to improve

understanding of the couplings between weather and spaceweathervariability and to quantify potential climate impacts by space

weather; to transfer “lessons learned” from the climate/weathercommunities on data assimilation and ensemble modeling and the

development of forecasts and their standards based on that.

What is it? We can read in the Proceedings Solar-terrestrial influence on

Weather and Climate, Eds. D.M. McCormac, T.A. Seliga, Dordrecht London, 1982, in the main paper (W.O. Roberts - Aspen Institute of Humanistic Studies, Boulder, USA): About links of weather and climate with solar phenomena (Review)

there is (citation): "At the discovery of the mechanism of influence at the problem "Sun - Weather" will be "perspectives of artificial

large scales changes of weather and climate"". We can read very mysterious situation with the description of "the

microwave contribution to controlling the global weather and hurricanes" Hoffman, Ross N., 2002: Controlling The Global

Weather. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 241-248. and Scientific American, October, 2012.

Therefore, the military society my be have the interest to practice using our

radiooptical mechanism of microwave controlto weather-climate characteristics.

THANKS!avak2@mail.ru

avak@soi.spb.ru“It will be easierto control the weatherthan to forecast it”

Stanislav Lem,Poland

First papers on the electron excitation of Rydberg states in the terrestrial ionosphere1. Avakyan S.V., "The new factor in the physics of solar-terrestrial relations – Rydberg atomic and molecular states", Conf. on Phys. of Solar-Terrestrial relationships, Alma-Ata, p. 3-5, 1994.2. Avakyan S.V., "New possible mechanism of sporadic ionospheric radioemissions", 25th General Assembly of URSI, 1996, France, G1: Ionospheric models and indices, Abstracts, p.346.3. Avakyan S.V., Voronin N.A., Serova A.E., "The role of Rydberg atoms and molecules in the upper atmosphere", Geomagnetism and aeronomy, 1997, vol. 37, № 3, pp. 331-335.

Avakyan S.V., Voronin N.A., Serova A.E., 1997. The role of Rydberg atoms and molecules in the upper atmosphere. Geomagnetism and Aeronomy 37 (3), 331-335.

Avakyan, S.V., Voronin, N.A., 2006. Possible mechanisms for the influence of heliogeophysical activity on the biosphere and the weather. Journal of Optical Technology (OSA) 73 (4), 281-285.

Avakyan, S.V., Voronin, N.A., 2007. On possible physical mechanism of solar and geomagnetic activity impacts to phenomena in low atmosphere. Issledov. Zemli iz Kosmosa (2), 28-33. (in Russian).

Avakyan, S.V., 2008. Physics of the solar-terrestrial coupling: results, problems and new approaches. Geomagnetism and Aeronomy 48 (4), 417-424.

S. V. Avakyan and N. A. Voronin, 2008. "Rydberg microwave emission of ionosphere during precipitation of electrons from the radiation belts caused by radio transmitters." Journal of Optical Technology (OSA) 75 (10), 687-688.

Avakyan, S.V., Voronin, N.A. 2010. On the radiooptical and optical mechanisms of influence of cosmic factors on the global warming. Journal of Optical technology (OSA) 77 (2), 141-144.

 Avakyan, S.V. and N.A. Voronin (2011), The role of space and ionospheric disturbances in the global climate change and pipeline corrosion. Izvestija, Atmosferic and Oceanic Physics, Springer, 47(9), 1143-1158.Avakyan, S.V. (2013a) The Role of Solar Activity in Global Warming. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences 83, 275-285.Avakyan, S.V. (2013b) Problems of climate as a task of optics. Journal of Optical Technology, Optical Society of America 80, 717-721.

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66

67

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69

70

1980 1990 2000 2010Годы

Общ

ее

кол

ич

еств

о о

бл

ак

ов

, %

CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL CLOUDINESS:

Decreased after 1985/87 to 2000 (with TSI and EUV / X-ray) and an increase from 2000 to 2004 (still growing as aa-index) Since 2004, it decreases as aa-index, although the GCR - is increased.

EUV/ X-ray / aaaa-in

dex

EUV/ X-ray

Years

Tot

al c

loud

am

ount

, %

CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL CLOUDINESS:

the global cloud cover showed decrease from 1985/87 to 2000 and increase from 2000 to 2004 (Palle et al, 2006). Since 2004 the global cloud cover as well as aa-index are decreasing Reduction of the global cloud cover observed till 2000 also can be explained according to our mechanism by decrease of the solar EUV fluxes (Lean, 2005). Indeed, this decrease reduces ionospheric microwave flux that results in reduction of the water vapour cluster concentration and that in turn increases the observed total content of water vapour in the atmospheric depth.

CONCLUSION for this section The novel physical mechanism for natural global climate changes is considered. The mechanism enables factors of solar and geomagnetic activities together affect low-atmospheric processes: with help of the ionospheric microwave fluxes which are generated during solar flares and magnetic storms. It is here very important for climatic changes, that the MAXIMUM OF SECULAR (quasi 100-yr and quasi 200-yr) CYCLE SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED IN EIGHTIES XX CENTURY

WE SUPPOSED THAT THESE EFFECTS MAY RESULT in SLOWING DOWN of GLOBAL WARMING in

the NEAR FUTURE

EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCES of THE IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES

ABOVE THE TRANSMISSIONS We are based on analysis on intensity of the stimulated electronic precipitations which are comparable with the precipitations during the geomagnetic storms (DEMETER data, 2005). Intensity of precipitations corresponds to the main phase of geomagnetic storm and make the aurora of IBC II. That aurora observed over the radio transmitters on the satellite INTERCOSMOS Bulgaria-1300, 1982.

ANTHROPOGENIC CONTRIBUTIONof RADIOOPTICAL TRIGGER MECHANISMto SOLAR –WEATHER and CLIMATE LINKS

ACCORDING TO RESULTS OF INVESTIGATION THESE SIMULATED PRECIPITATIONS OF ELECTRONS TO IONOSPHERE SHOULD CAUSE EXCITATION OF RYDBERG STATES WITH THE CORRESPONDING EMISSION OF MICROWAVE RADIATION WITH INTENSITY up to 10–12 – 10–11 W сm–2, that IS NEAR to flux during large magnetic STORM. Since radio and VLF transmitters are both products of the industrial activity of 20-th century probably it is necessary to take into account their geography and working regime when research solar-weather and solar-climate phenomena.

NOVEL RADIOOPTICAL TRIGGER MECHANISM is proposed for solar-weather relations. According to this mechanism, both solar EUV/X-ray radiation and corpuscular radiations during solar and geomagnetic events EXCITE THE RYDBERG STATES OF UPPER ATMOSPHERE NEUTRAL CONSTITUENTS BY THE IMPACT OF ENERGETIC IONOSPHERIC ELECTRONS. The emission from these states is in the microwave range and penetrates freely from ionospheric heights to the lower atmosphere. There, via a complicated chain of processes involving creation and destruction of water clusters, this emission influences the water vapour content and cloudiness, both being a substantial parts of weather formation.

the global cloud cover showed decrease from 1985/87 to 2000 and increase from 2000 to 2004 (Palle et al, 2006). Since 2004 the global cloud cover as well as aa-index are decreasing Reduction of the global cloud cover observed till 2000 also can be explained according to our mechanism by decrease of the solar EUV fluxes (Lean, 2005). Indeed, this decrease reduces ionospheric microwave flux that results in reduction of the water vapour cluster concentration and that in turn increases the observed total content of water vapour in the atmospheric depth.

This mechanism is involved into investigation of climate changes going on during the several past decades. Since 1985 the total solar irradiance flux started decreasing with simultaneous decreasing of ionizing EUV/X-ray radiation. However the geomagnetic activity according to the aa-index kept growing till 2003. This growth (+ 0.6 % per year since 1965) was replaced also by fast decline only after 2003.

WE SUPPOSED THAT THESE EFFECTS MAY RESULT in SLOWING DOWN of GLOBAL WARMING in the NEAR

FUTURE

Rydberg atom Radioemissions of Oxygen Atom

dm radioemission: n = 0 at n = 20-40

cm radioemission: n = 1 at n = 10-20

mm radioemission: n > 1 at n > 10

ni

n1

n0

Ionization Potential

Rydberg levels (ni > 10)

l = (from (ni 1) to 0)

Resonance level

Ground level

LOW CLOUDNESS at DAYS (green), TSI (red), GCR (black) - (Kristjansson e.a.,2004)