The End of the Transition Paradigm

Thomas Carothers, 2002

Presented by:

Salwa Tobbala April 19, 2010

1) Southern Europe in the mid-1970s: fall of right-wing authoritarian regimes

2) Latin America from the late 1970s -late 1980s: replacement of military dictatorships by elected civilian governments

3) East and South Asia mid-1980s: decline of authoritarian rule in parts of

4) Eastern Europe end of the 1980s: collapse of communist regimes

5) Soviet Union 1991: breakup and establishment of 15 post-Soviet republics

6) Sub-Saharan Africa first half of the 1990s: decline of one-party regimes in many parts of

7) Some Middle Eastern countries 1990s: weak but recognizable liberalizing trend

20th Century Third Wave of Democracy

1. In Transition toward Democracy2. Democratization in Sequence: Opening –

Breakthrough – Consolidation3. Importance of Elections4. No pre-conditions5. Democracy building and state-building

5 Core AssumptionsTransition Paradigm

Feckless Pluralism Syndrome

Dominant Power Politics Syndrome

General Characteristics:•Political Freedom•Regular Elections•Alternation of Power

-Elections trade country’s problems from one helpless side to another-State is Weak, corrupt, and elite-dominated-Poor service delivery

(Latin America)

General Characteristics:•One Party Rule•Election show•Hopes of Alteration of Power

-Blurring line between state resources and ruling party-Large scale of corruption-Citizen cut from significant political participation-Hopes resides in donor funded CSOs(Middle East, Former Soviet Union)

Gray ZoneDictatorship

Liberal Democracy

Discard the transition paradigm’s five assumptions Social Economic Development beside democracy-

building Country-specific patterns of political life:

How to move forward?

Feckless Pluralism Dominant Power System

• Political Party Development

• New entrants of Political Parties

• Strong connection between CSOs and Political Parties

• Political Party development, specially how they are financed

• Differentiate between state and ruling party

• Diverse centers of economic power

Starts with a dream…. Fulfilled with persistence & hard work